Welcome to Scribd, the world's digital library. Read, publish, and share books and documents. See more
Download
Standard view
Full view
of .
Look up keyword
Like this
1Activity
0 of .
Results for:
No results containing your search query
P. 1
Ch12 Long-term WG1AR5 SOD Ch12 All Final

Ch12 Long-term WG1AR5 SOD Ch12 All Final

Ratings: (0)|Views: 50|Likes:
The Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report presents new evidence of past and projected future climate change from many independent scientific studies ranging from observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical studies on climate processes and simulations using climate models.
The Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report presents new evidence of past and projected future climate change from many independent scientific studies ranging from observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical studies on climate processes and simulations using climate models.

More info:

Published by: Darin Reboot Congress on Dec 15, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

Availability:

Read on Scribd mobile: iPhone, iPad and Android.
download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
See more
See less

12/15/2012

pdf

text

original

 
Second Order Draft Chapter 12 IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report
Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute
12-1 Total pages: 158
1
Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
23
Coordinating Lead Authors:
Matthew Collins (UK), Reto Knutti (Switzerland)
45
Lead Authors:
Julie Arblaster (Australia), Jean-Louis Dufresne (France), Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), Pierre
6
Friedlingstein (UK), Xuejie Gao (China), William Gutowski (USA), Tim Johns (UK), Gerhard Krinner 
7
(France), Mxolisi Shongwe (South Africa), Claudia Tebaldi (USA), Andrew Weaver (Canada), Michael
8
Wehner (USA)
910
Contributing Authors:
Myles R. Allen, Tim Andrews, Urs Beyerle, Cecilia Bitz, Sandrine Bony, Ben
11
Booth, Oliver Brown, Victor Brovkin, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Mark Cane, Robin Chadwick, Ed Cook, Kerry
12
H. Cook, Sébastien Denvil, Michael Eby, John Fasullo, Erich M. Fischer, Piers Forster, Peter Good, Hugues
13
Goosse, Kevin I. Hodges, Marika Holland, Philippe Huybrechts, Manoj Joshi, Viatcheslav Kharin,
14
Yochanan Kushnir, David Lawrence, Robert W. Lee, Spencer Liddicoat, Wolfgang Lucht, Damon
15
Matthews, François Massonnet, Malte Meinshausen, Christina M. Patricola, Gwenaëlle Philippon-Berthier,
16
Prabhat, Stefan Rahmstorf, William J. Riley, Joeri Rogelj, Oleg Saenko, Richard Seager, Jan Sedlacek, Len
17
Shaffrey, Drew Shindell, Jana Sillmann, Andrew Slater, Robert Webb, Giuseppe Zappa, Kirsten Zickfeld
1819
Review Editors:
Sylvie Joussaume (France), Abdalah Mokssit (Morocco), Karl Taylor (USA), Simon Tett
20
(UK)
2122
Date of Draft:
5 October 2012
2324
Notes:
TSU Compiled Version
252627
Table of Contents
 
2829
Executive Summary..........................................................................................................................................3
30
12.1
Introduction..............................................................................................................................................9
31
12.2
Climate Model Ensembles and Sources of Uncertainty from Emissions to Projections..................10
32
12.2.1
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Other Tools.....................................10
33
12.2.2
General Concepts: Sources of Uncertainties................................................................................10
34
12.2.3
 From Ensembles to Uncertainty Quantification...........................................................................13
35
Box 12.1: Methods to Qualify Multi-Model Result in Maps.......................................................................13
36
12.2.4
 Joint Projections of Multiple Variables........................................................................................16 
37
12.3
Projected Changes in Forcing Agents, including Emissions and Concentrations............................17
38
12.3.1
 Description of Scenarios...............................................................................................................18
39
12.3.2
 Implementation of Forcings in CMIP5 Experiments....................................................................20
40
12.3.3
 Projected Radiative Forcing for the 21st Century........................................................................23
41
12.4
Projected Climate Change over the 21st Century...............................................................................24
42
12.4.1
Time-Evolving Global Quantities.................................................................................................24
43
12.4.2
 Pattern Scaling..............................................................................................................................28
44
12.4.3
Changes in Temperature and Energy Budget...............................................................................30
45
12.4.4
Changes in Atmospheric Circulation............................................................................................37 
46
12.4.5
Changes in the Water Cycle..........................................................................................................41
47
12.4.6 
Changes in Cryosphere.................................................................................................................48
48
12.4.7 
Changes in the Ocean...................................................................................................................52
49
12.4.8
Changes Associated with Carbon Cycle Feedbacks and Vegetation Cover.................................54
50
12.4.9
Consistency and Main Differences Between CMIP3/CMIP5 and SRES/RCPs............................56 
51
12.5
Climate Change Beyond 2100, Commitment, Stabilization and Irreversibility...............................58
52
12.5.1
 RCP Extensions.............................................................................................................................58
53
12.5.2
Climate Change Commitment.......................................................................................................59
54
12.5.3
Global Measures of Climate Sensitivity and Transient Response................................................61
55
12.5.4
Climate Stabilization and Long-Term Climate Targets................................................................62
56
Box 12.2: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response..........................................64
57
 
Second Order Draft Chapter 12 IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report
Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute
12-2 Total pages: 158
12.5.5
 Potentially Abrupt or Irreversible Changes..................................................................................67 
1
FAQ 12.1: Why are so Many Models and Scenarios Used to Project Climate Change?.........................73
2
FAQ 12.2: How will the Earth’s Water Cycle Change?.............................................................................74
3
FAQ 12.3: What would Happen to Future Climate if We Stopped Emissions Today?...........................76
4
References........................................................................................................................................................78
5
Tables.............................................................................................................................................................102
6
Figures...........................................................................................................................................................106
78
 
Second Order Draft Chapter 12 IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report
Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute
12-3 Total pages: 158
Executive Summary
12
Global Mean Projections
34
 
Global-mean surface temperatures are projected to rise over the century under all of the GHG
5
concentration pathways represented by the RCPs. Around the mid-21st century, the rate of global
6
warming begins to be more strongly dependent on the scenario. By 2100, the best estimate global-
7
mean temperature change relative to 1986–2005 in the non-mitigation RCP8.5 is about a factor of 3
8
higher than in the lowest RCP2.6 (
high confidence
), where warming stabilizes in the second half of 
9
this century.
1011
 
It is
very likely
that global-mean surface temperatures at the end of the 21st century will be greater 
12
than present-day under the specified RCPs. Global-mean surface temperatures for 2081–2100
13
(relative to 1986–2005) for the CO
2
concentration driven RCPs will
likely
be in the 5–95% range of 
14
the CMIP5 models, i.e., 0.2–1.8°C (RCP2.6), 1.0–2.6°C (RCP4.5), 1.3–3.2°C (RCP6.0), 2.6–4.8°C
15
(RCP8.5).
1617
 
For RCP4.5, 6.0 and 8.5, global temperatures are projected to
likely
exceed 2ºC warming with
18
respect to preindustrial by 2100, and about
as likely as not 
to be above 2°C warming for RCP2.6
1920
 
It is
virtually certain
that global precipitation will increase with global mean surface temperature in
21
the next century, with an increase per °C smaller than that of atmospheric water vapour. It is
likely
 
22
that the rate of increase of precipitation with temperature will be in the range 1–3% °C
 –1
, for 
23
scenarios other than RCP2.6. For RCP2.6 the range of sensitivities in the CMIP5 models is 0.5–4%
24
°C
 –1
at the end of the 21st century.
2526
 Projections in Temperature and Energy Budget 
2728
 
Future changes in global land surface air temperature exceed changes in global average ocean-area
29
surface air temperature by a factor of ~1.5 ± 0.2 (one standard deviation), as was found in AR4
30
(
very high confidence
).
3132
 
The Arctic region is projected to warm most rapidly (
very high confidence
). This polar 
33
amplification is not found in Antarctic regions due to deep ocean mixing, strong ocean heat uptake
34
and to the persistence of the vast Antarctic ice sheet.
3536
 
Projected regional surface air temperature warming has minima in the North Atlantic and Southern
37
Oceans in all scenarios. Some models exhibit regional cooling in 2081–2100 over the North
38
Atlantic Ocean under RCP4.5 forcing.
3940
 
As global mean surface temperature rises, the pattern of atmospheric zonal-mean temperatures
41
show warming throughout the troposphere and cooling in the stratosphere, consistent with previous
42
assessments. The consistency is especially clear in the tropical upper troposphere and the northern
43
high latitudes, indicating that the greatest atmospheric warming is
very likely
to occur in these
44
regions.
4546
 
It is
virtually certain
that, in most places, there will be more hot and fewer cold temperature
47
extremes as global temperature increases. These changes are expected for events defined as
48
extremes on both daily and seasonal time scales. Since AR4, the understanding of mechanisms and
49
feedbacks leading to projected changes in extremes has been improved. Increases in the frequency,
50
duration and magnitude of hot extremes along with heat stress are expected, however occasional
51
cold winter extremes will continue to occur.
5253
 
Projected changes in 20-year return values of high and low temperature events experience greater 
54
increases than mean temperatures in many regions, with the largest changes in the return values of 
55
low temperatures at high latitudes. Under RCP8.5 it is
likely
that, in most regions, a 20 year 
56
maximum temperature event will occur more frequently (at least doubling its frequency, but in
57

You're Reading a Free Preview

Download
scribd
/*********** DO NOT ALTER ANYTHING BELOW THIS LINE ! ************/ var s_code=s.t();if(s_code)document.write(s_code)//-->