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TechnicalSummary WG1AR5-TS FOD All Final

TechnicalSummary WG1AR5-TS FOD All Final

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The Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report presents new evidence of past and projected future climate change from many independent scientific studies ranging from observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical studies on climate processes and simulations using climate models.
The Working Group I contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report presents new evidence of past and projected future climate change from many independent scientific studies ranging from observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical studies on climate processes and simulations using climate models.

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First Order Draft Technical Summary IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report
Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute
TS-1 Total pages: 99
1
 
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
2
 
Technical Summary
3
 
4
 
Coordinating Lead Authors:
Thomas Stocker (Switzerland), Qin Dahe (China), Gian-Kasper Plattner 
5
 
(Switzerland)
6
 
7
 
Lead Authors:
Lisa Alexander (Australia), Simon Allen (Switzerland), Nathaniel Bindoff (Australia),
8
 
Francois-Marie Breon (France), John Church (Australia), Ulrich Cubasch (Germany), Seita Emori (Japan),
9
 
Piers Forster (United Kingdom), Pierre Friedlingstein (United Kingdom), Nathan Gillett (Canada), Jonathan
10
 
Gregory (United Kingdom), Dennis Hartmann (USA), Eystein Jansen (Norway), Ben Kirtman (USA), Reto
11
 
Knutti (Switzerland), Krishna Kumar Kanikicharla (India), Peter Lemke (Germany), Jochem Marotzke
12
 
(Germany), Valerie Masson-Delmotte (France), Gerald Meehl (USA), Igor Mokhov (Russia), Shilong Piao
13
 
(China), Venkatachalam Ramaswamy (USA), David Randall (USA), Monika Rhein (Germany), Maisa Rojas
14
 
(Chile), Christopher Sabine (USA), Drew Shindell (USA), Lynne Talley (USA), David Vaughan (United
15
 
Kingdom), Shang-Ping Xie (USA)
16
 
17
 
Contributing Authors (list to be updated):
Olivier Boucher (France), Philippe Ciais (France), Peter Clark 
18
 
(USA), Matthew Collins (United Kingdom), Joey Comiso (USA), Gregory Flato (Canada), Jens Hesselbjerg
19
 
Christensen (Denmark), Albert Klein Tank (Netherlands), Gunnar Myhre (Norway), Scott Power (Australia),
20
 
Stephen Rintoul (Germany), Matilde Rusticucci (Argentina), Michael Schulz (Germany), Peter Stott (United
21
 
Kingdom), Donald Wuebbles (USA)
22
 
23
 
Review Editors:
Sylvie Joussaume (France), Joyce Penner (USA), Fredolin Tangang (Malaysia)
24
 
25
 
Date of Draft:
5 October 2012
26
 
27
 
Notes:
TSU Compiled Version
28
 
29
 
30
 
Table of Contents
31
 
32
 
TS.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................................3
33
 
TS.2
Observation of Changes in the Climate System..................................................................................4
34
 
TS.2.1
 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................4
35
 
TS.2.2
Changes in Temperature.................................................................................................................4
36
 
TS.2.3
Changes in Energy Budget and Heat Content................................................................................5
37
 
TS.2.4
Changes in Circulation and Modes of Variability..........................................................................5
38
 
TS.2.5
Changes in the Water Cycle and Cryosphere.................................................................................6 
39
 
TFE.1: Water Cycle Change............................................................................................................................8
40
 
TS.2.6 
Changes in Sea Level....................................................................................................................10
41
 
TFE.2: Sea Level Change: Scientific Understanding and Uncertainties...................................................11
42
 
TS.2.7 
Changes in Extremes.....................................................................................................................13
43
 
TS.2.8
Changes in Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles................................................................14
44
 
TS.3
Drivers of Climate Change..................................................................................................................16
45
 
TS.3.1
 Introduction...................................................................................................................................16 
46
 
Box TS.1: Radiative Forcing and Adjusted Forcing...................................................................................16
47
 
TS.3.2
 Radiative Forcing from Greenhouse Gases..................................................................................17 
48
 
TS.3.3
 Radiative Forcing from Anthropogenic Aerosols.........................................................................18
49
 
TS.3.4
 Radiative Forcing from Land Surface Changes and Contrails....................................................18
50
 
TS.3.5
 Radiative Forcing from Natural Drivers of Climate Change.......................................................19
51
 
TS.3.6 
Synthesis of Forcings; Spatial and Temporal evolution...............................................................19
52
 
TS.3.7 
Climate Feedbacks........................................................................................................................20
53
 
TS.3.8
 Emission Metrics...........................................................................................................................21
54
 
TS.4
Understanding the Climate System and its Recent Changes...........................................................22
55
 
 
First Order Draft Technical Summary IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report
Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute
TS-2 Total pages: 99
TS.4.1
 Introduction...................................................................................................................................22
1
 
TS.4.2
Surface Temperature.....................................................................................................................22
2
 
TFE.3: Comparing Projections of Temperature Change with Observations Over the Last Two
3
 
Decades....................................................................................................................................................23
4
 
TS.4.3
 Atmospheric Temperature.............................................................................................................25
5
 
TS.4.4
Oceans...........................................................................................................................................25
6
 
TFE.4: The Changing Energy Budget of the Global Climate System.......................................................26
7
 
TS.4.5
Cryosphere....................................................................................................................................27 
8
 
TFE.5: Irreversibility and Abrupt Change..................................................................................................28
9
 
TS.4.6 
Water Cycle...................................................................................................................................31
10
 
TS.4.7 
Climate Extremes..........................................................................................................................31
11
 
TS.4.8
 From Global to Regional..............................................................................................................32
12
 
Box TS.2: Model Evaluation..........................................................................................................................33
13
 
Box TS.3:
 
Paleoclimate...................................................................................................................................35
14
 
TS.5
Projections of Global and Regional Climate Change........................................................................36
15
 
TS.5.1
 Introduction...................................................................................................................................36 
16
 
TS.5.2
 Future Forcing and Scenarios......................................................................................................36 
17
 
Box TS.4: The New RCP Scenarios and CMIP5 Models............................................................................36
18
 
TS.5.3
 Projections of Climate Change.....................................................................................................38
19
 
TFE.6: Climate Sensitivity and Feedbacks..................................................................................................47
20
 
TS.5.4
 Long-Term Projections of Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles........................................49
21
 
TFE.7: Carbon Cycle.....................................................................................................................................50
22
 
TFE.8: Climate Targets and Stabilization...................................................................................................52
23
 
TS.5.5
 Long-Term Projections of Sea Level Change...............................................................................54
24
 
TS.5.6 
Climate Phenomena and Regional Climate Change....................................................................56 
25
 
TFE.9: Climate Extremes..............................................................................................................................59
26
 
TS.6 Key Uncertainties.................................................................................................................................62
27
 
TS.6.1
Observation of Changes in the Climate System............................................................................62
28
 
TS.6.2
 Drivers of Climate Change...........................................................................................................63
29
 
TS.6.3
Understanding the Climate System and its Recent Changes........................................................64
30
 
TS.6.4
 Projections of Global and Regional Climate Change..................................................................64
31
 
Tables...............................................................................................................................................................66
32
 
Figures.............................................................................................................................................................68
33
 
34
 
35
 
 
First Order Draft Technical Summary IPCC WGI Fifth Assessment Report
Do Not Cite, Quote or Distribute
TS-3 Total pages: 99
TS.1 Introduction
1
 
2
 
"
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
" is the contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
3
 
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This comprehensive assessment of 
4
 
the physical aspects of climate change puts a focus on those elements that are relevant to understand past,
5
 
document current, and project future climate change. The assessment builds on the IPCC Fourth Assessment
6
 
Report (AR4)
1
and the recent Special Report on Managing the Risk of Extreme Events and Disasters to
7
 
Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)
2
and is presented in 14 chapters. The chapters cover direct
8
 
and proxy observations of changes in all components of the climate system, they assess the current
9
 
knowledge of various processes within, and interactions among, climate system components, which
10
 
determine the sensitivity and response of the system to changes in forcing, and they quantify the link 
11
 
 between the changes in atmospheric constituents, and hence radiative forcing
3
, and the consequent detection
12
 
and attribution of climate change. Projections of changes in all climate system components are based on
13
 
model simulations forced by a new set of scenarios. The report also provides a comprehensive assessment of 
14
 
 past and future sea level change in a dedicated chapter. Regional climate change information is presented in
15
 
the form of an Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections.
16
 
17
 
The primary purpose of this Technical Summary is to provide the link between the complete assessment of 
18
 
the multiple lines of independent evidence presented in the 14 chapters of the main report and the highly
19
 
condensed summary prepared as the WGI Summary for Policymakers. The Technical Summary thus serves
20
 
as a starting point for those readers who seek the full information on more specific topics covered by this
21
 
assessment. This is facilitated by including pointers to the chapters and sections where the full assessment
22
 
can be found. Policy-relevant topics, which cut across many chapters and involve many interlinked processes
23
 
in the climate system, are presented here as Thematic Focus Elements, allowing rapid access of this
24
 
information.
25
 
26
 
An integral element of this report is the use of uncertainty language which permits a traceable account of the
27
 
assessment. The degree of certainty in key findings in this assessment is expressed as a level of confidence
28
 
which results from the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence and the degree of agreement in the
29
 
scientific studies considered
4
. Confidence is expressed qualitatively. Quantified measures of uncertainty in a
30
 
finding are expressed probabilistically and are based on a combination of statistical analyses of observations
31
 
or model results, or both, and expert judgment.
32
 
33
 
The Technical Summary is structured into four main sections presenting the assessment results following the
34
 
storyline of the WGI contribution to AR5: Section TS.2 covers the assessment of observations of changes in
35
 
the climate system; Section TS.3 summarizes the information on the different drivers, natural and
36
 
anthropogenic, expressed in terms of radiative forcing; Section TS.4 presents the assessment of the
37
 
quantitative understanding of observed climate change; and Section TS.5 summarizes the assessment results
38
 
for projections of future climate change over the 21st century and beyond from regional to global scale.
39
 
Section TS.6 combines and lists remaining key uncertainties in the WGI assessment from Sections TS.2– 
40
 
TS.5. The overall nine Thematic Focus Elements (TFEs) are dispersed throughout the four main TS sections,
41
 
are visually distinct from the main text, and should allow stand-alone reading.
42
 
1
IPCC, 2007:
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
. Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M.Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdomand New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.
2
IPCC, 2012:
 Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
. A SpecialReport of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F.Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M.Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp.
3
Radiative Forcing is defined as the change in net irradiance at the tropopause since 1750 after allowing for stratospheric temperatures to readjust to radiative equilibrium, while holding surface and tropospheric temperatures andstate variables fixed at the unperturbed values. Positive forcing tends to warm the surface while negative forcing tendsto cool it. In this report, radiative forcing values are expressed in watts per square metre (W m
 –2
). (see Glossary)
4
Mastrandrea, M.D., C.B. Field, T.F. Stocker, O. Edenhofer, K.L. Ebi, D.J. Frame, H. Held, E. Kriegler, K.J. Mach,P.R. Matschoss, G.-K. Plattner, G.W. Yohe, and F.W. Zwiers, 2010:
Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties
. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

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