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DISTRESSED RETAIL MARKET ANALYSISSELECT MAJOR U.S. MARKETS YEAR-END 2008
Total Retail VacancyVelocity Change in Vacancy IndexNet Absorption Benchmark (SF)Retail Inventory Additions (SF)Total Inventory IncreasePotential Inventory Impact / DistressMajor MarketState4Q074Q08ChangeSpace (SF)4Q074Q08%YTD AbsorptionInventory%DeliveriesTotal% of BaseIndexIndex
AtlantaGA7.8%9.1%1.3% 25,115,877 128 136 8 106%1,286,502 277,318,388 0.5% 5,374,292 2,535,932 7,910,224
52%
4,078,728 2.9%109 29,194,605 10.5%133
140
AustinTX6.9%7.0%0.1% 4,420,918 113 104
(9)
92%795,111 62,962,634 1.3% 936,149 576,171 1,512,320
57%
864,236 2.4%92 5,285,154 8.4%106
99
BaltimoreMD5.4%4.8%-0.6% 5,354,333 89 72
(17)
81%1,947,480 110,876,833 1.8% 1,353,460 1,014,444 2,367,904
42%
999,236 2.1%82 6,353,569 5.7%72
59
BirminghamAL6.5%8.8%2.3% 6,819,232 107 131 25 123%
(883,789)
77,270,059 -1.1% 976,372 690,481 1,666,853
2%
36,211 2.2%83 6,855,443 8.9%112
140
BostonMA5.3%5.3%0.0% 13,194,035 87 79
(8)
91%2,040,794 251,071,147 0.8% 2,124,266 2,136,979 4,261,245
36%
1,545,154 1.7%65 14,739,189 5.9%74
71
Broward CountyFL3.4%5.8%2.4% 6,733,731 56 87 31 155%
(383,265)
115,373,845 -0.3% 2,515,062 775,230 3,290,292
73%
2,400,564 2.9%109 9,134,295 7.9%100
116
CharlotteNC5.1%5.9%0.8% 3,251,450 84 88 4 105%267,486 54,907,834 0.5% 744,117 200,393 944,510
36%
341,129 1.7%66 3,592,579 6.5%83
89
ChicagoIL7.6%8.4%0.8% 36,007,183 125 125 1 101%2,718,284 427,942,869 0.6% 6,930,890 4,078,443 11,009,333
60%
6,559,676 2.6%99 42,566,859 9.9%126
126
CincinnatiOH8.7%8.5%-0.2% 8,371,627 143 127
(16)
89%1,015,374 98,748,665 1.0% 1,053,855 191,079 1,244,934
87%
1,087,655 1.3%48 9,459,282 9.6%121
112
ClevelandOH7.5%7.3%-0.2% 10,764,598 123 109
(14)
89%1,002,808 147,543,274 0.7% 781,435 665,214 1,446,649
36%
517,797 1.0%38 11,282,395 7.6%97
92
ColumbusOH8.3%8.6%0.3% 7,439,358 136 128
(8)
94%654,670 86,335,896 0.8% 988,146 162,106 1,150,252
38%
432,822 1.3%51 7,872,180 9.1%115
116
Dallas / Ft WorthTX9.5%9.1%-0.4% 29,655,776 156 136
(20)
87%8,889,076 325,003,061 2.7% 8,673,534 6,125,298 14,798,832
56%
8,286,259 4.6%175 37,942,035 11.7%147
127
DaytonOH9.4%9.7%0.3% 5,950,369 154 145
(9)
94%
(159,878)
61,130,153 -0.3% 117,361 62,480 179,841
15%
27,376 0.3%11 5,977,745 9.8%123
127
DenverCO7.7%8.2%0.5% 13,535,054 126 122
(4)
97%904,817 164,524,418 0.5% 2,664,491 2,078,995 4,743,486
23%
1,093,208 2.9%111 14,628,262 8.9%112
114
DetroitMI10.7%10.6%-0.1% 19,659,188 175 158
(17)
90%1,609,995 185,371,128 0.9% 1,556,699 1,208,997 2,765,696
24%
659,479 1.5%57 20,318,667 11.0%138
135
East Bay / OaklandCA3.6%4.2%0.6% 5,318,981 59 63 4 106%1,359,915 126,048,189 1.1% 2,291,239 844,238 3,135,477
39%
1,218,517 2.5%95 6,537,498 5.2%66
67
Greensboro / Winston-SalemNC5.7%6.6%0.9% 5,495,457 93 99 5 105%
(110,231)
83,247,340 -0.1% 646,765 525,508 1,172,273
43%
507,806 1.4%54 6,003,263 7.2%91
99
Greenville / SpartanburgSC7.1%7.1%0.0% 4,949,968 116 106
(10)
91%326,297 69,712,038 0.5% 368,232 599,938 968,170
21%
198,592 1.4%53 5,148,560 7.4%93
92
Hampton Roads / NorfolkVA4.7%5.6%0.9% 5,457,199 77 84 7 108%554,111 96,984,181 0.6% 1,544,881 1,287,916 2,832,797
42%
1,194,445 2.9%112 6,651,644 6.9%87
90
HartfordCT5.6%6.4%0.8% 8,233,646 92 96 4 104%
(508,591)
127,747,082 -0.4% 615,880 2,486,615 3,102,495
31%
957,008 2.4%93 9,190,654 7.2%91
96
HoustonTX8.5%9.0%0.5% 25,254,819 139 134
(5)
96%4,279,145 281,841,052 1.5% 6,045,989 3,204,231 9,250,220
41%
3,750,134 3.3%126 29,004,953 10.3%130
128
IndianapolisIN9.6%9.9%0.3% 8,824,158 157 148
(10)
94%993,443 89,036,519 1.1% 1,442,694 428,548 1,871,242
64%
1,204,888 2.1%81 10,029,046 11.3%142
138
Inland EmpireCA4.9%7.0%2.1% 11,774,387 80 104 24 130%2,973,361 168,291,227 1.8% 6,770,796 1,718,122 8,488,918
35%
2,975,772 5.0%193 14,750,159 8.8%111
126
 JacksonvilleFL4.6%6.7%2.1% 5,247,297 75 100 25 133%364,582 78,694,661 0.5% 2,106,952 1,222,821 3,329,773
40%
1,323,968 4.2%162 6,571,265 8.4%105
121
Kansas CityMO9.4%10.0%0.6% 9,025,130 154 149
(5)
97%483,189 89,864,890 0.5% 1,512,374 202,537 1,714,911
61%
1,047,141 1.9%73 10,072,271 11.2%142
142
Las VegasNV4.7%7.6%2.9% 8,537,818 77 113 36 147%1,085,680 112,231,387 1.0% 4,598,862 3,157,166 7,756,028
29%
2,224,362 6.9%265 10,762,180 9.6%121
145
Long IslandNY5.5%4.3%-1.2% 8,470,638 90 64
(26)
71%3,645,488 194,949,811 1.9% 2,009,105 949,859 2,958,964
47%
1,387,455 1.5%58 9,858,093 5.1%64
45
Los AngelesCA2.5%3.9%1.4% 15,116,778 41 58 17 142%
(1,726,866)
383,597,727 -0.5% 4,338,312 2,665,698 7,004,010
53%
3,743,744 1.8%70 18,860,522 4.9%62
73
MadisonWI4.8%5.8%1.0% 2,009,003 79 87 8 110%76,998 34,702,073 0.2% 455,005 59,560 514,565
92%
471,705 1.5%57 2,480,708 7.1%90
94
MemphisTN9.1%9.8%0.7% 6,371,198 149 146
(3)
98%532,331 65,002,537 0.8% 1,167,138 749,304 1,916,442
26%
503,165 2.9%113 6,874,363 10.6%134
138
Miami-Dade CountyFL3.1%4.3%1.2% 5,029,850 51 64 13 126%1,569,034 117,918,214 1.3% 3,060,087 1,463,754 4,523,841
31%
1,423,250 3.8%147 6,453,100 5.5%69
77
MilwaukeeWI6.6%6.6%0.0% 8,754,717 108 99
(10)
91%739,596 131,957,848 0.6% 927,742 271,933 1,199,675
46%
547,067 0.9%35 9,301,784 7.0%89
86
MinneapolisMN4.8%5.1%0.3% 9,587,827 79 76
(3)
97%
(20,435)
187,272,028 0.0% 828,115 358,572 1,186,687
58%
683,510 0.6%24 10,271,337 5.5%69
71
NashvilleTN4.9%5.7%0.8% 5,253,046 80 85 5 106%1,623,082 92,027,471 1.8% 2,486,982 1,347,765 3,834,747
51%
1,974,058 4.2%160 7,227,104 7.9%99
96
New York CityNY3.9%2.4%-1.5% 1,789,490 64 36
(28)
56%1,689,231 73,574,555 2.3% 706,417 1,383,617 2,090,034
41%
866,773 2.8%109 2,656,263 3.6%46
20
Northern New JerseyNJ5.9%6.1%0.2% 15,959,868 97 91
(6)
94%3,507,185 262,535,064 1.3% 4,278,587 6,256,177 10,534,764
71%
7,469,805 4.0%154 23,429,673 8.9%113
98
Oklahoma CityOK7.3%7.0%-0.3% 5,317,349 120 104
(15)
87%637,852 76,428,656 0.8% 386,795 255,613 642,408
34%
219,863 0.8%32 5,537,212 7.2%91
87
Orange CountyCA2.9%3.8%0.9% 4,461,651 48 57 9 119%
(153,813)
118,201,357 -0.1% 939,808 455,174 1,394,982
1%
15,560 1.2%45 4,477,211 3.8%48
59
OrlandoFL4.8%6.1%1.3% 8,822,837 79 91 12 116%1,400,115 144,098,744 1.0% 3,519,143 845,426 4,364,569
28%
1,221,727 3.0%116 10,044,564 7.0%88
99
Palm Beach CountyFL5.0%6.3%1.3% 4,762,303 82 94 12 115%
(69,247)
75,144,104 -0.1% 965,911 1,059,502 2,025,413
29%
597,082 2.7%103 5,359,385 7.1%90
101
PhiladelphiaPA7.4%7.4%0.0% 28,855,088 121 110
(11)
91%2,695,705 388,208,596 0.7% 2,853,118 4,145,603 6,998,721
47%
3,308,195 1.8%69 32,163,283 8.3%105
99
PhoenixAZ6.4%9.3%2.9% 17,934,207 105 139 34 132%1,685,013 193,168,311 0.9% 7,847,296 2,110,717 9,958,013
53%
5,283,842 5.2%198 23,218,049 12.0%152
171
PittsburghPA6.6%6.8%0.2% 7,419,681 108 101
(7)
94%543,522 109,040,527 0.5% 858,889 835,116 1,694,005
66%
1,124,341 1.6%60 8,544,022 7.8%99
95
PortlandOR4.5%5.3%0.8% 4,846,488 74 79 5 107%574,837 91,067,846 0.6% 1,377,299 431,809 1,809,108
37%
665,363 2.0%76 5,511,851 6.1%76
82
ProvidenceRI5.3%7.5%2.2% 3,583,607 87 112 25 129%
(576,573)
47,917,323 -1.2% 483,800 921,508 1,405,308
63%
882,027 2.9%113 4,465,634 9.3%118
134
Raleigh / DurhamNC6.8%6.7%-0.1% 4,720,519 111 100
(11)
90%1,415,363 70,524,053 2.0% 1,448,730 923,165 2,371,895
23%
539,747 3.4%129 5,260,266 7.5%94
88
RichmondVA5.8%6.2%0.4% 4,511,062 95 93
(3)
97%1,226,082 72,622,069 1.7% 1,622,414 1,770,197 3,392,611
30%
1,031,965 4.7%179 5,543,027 7.6%96
93
SacramentoCA6.0%7.9%1.9% 8,628,701 98 118 20 120%
(489,993)
109,847,360 -0.4% 1,637,569 2,901,687 4,539,256
42%
1,891,036 4.1%159 10,519,737 9.6%121
134
Salt Lake CityUT5.1%5.2%0.1% 6,007,214 84 78
(6)
93%791,655 114,799,378 0.7% 1,120,894 1,146,914 2,267,808
80%
1,807,420 2.0%76 7,814,634 6.8%86
77
San AntonioTX7.0%7.2%0.2% 7,969,780 115 107
(7)
94%3,174,616 111,208,195 2.9% 3,623,275 2,835,712 6,458,987
40%
2,601,920 5.8%223 10,571,700 9.5%120
108
San DiegoCA3.1%3.6%0.5% 4,989,923 51 54 3 106%
(401,990)
138,426,623 -0.3% 363,724 456,428 820,152
39%
316,339 0.6%23 5,306,262 3.8%48
53Change inIndexUnderConstruction%RemainingTo LeaseTotal -RemainingTo LeaseVacancy &Remaining toLease (SF)% of InventoryDistressIndex
 
San FranciscoCA3.1%2.6%-0.5% 2,106,615 51 39
(12)
76%453,459 80,442,883 0.6% 65,590 144,404 209,994
74%
156,440 0.3%10 2,263,055 2.8%36
28
Seattle / Puget SoundWA4.0%4.5%0.5% 6,814,174 66 67 2 102%3,588,049 150,917,857 2.4% 4,557,295 1,358,707 5,916,002
60%
3,535,005 3.9%150 10,349,179 6.9%87
78
South Bay/San JoseCA3.2%3.6%0.4% 2,845,769 52 54 1 102%406,286 80,047,287 0.5% 710,694 343,171 1,053,865
55%
582,343 1.3%51 3,428,112 4.3%54
55
Southwest FloridaFL3.8%6.0%2.2% 4,675,411 62 90 27 144%931,666 77,586,710 1.2% 2,792,949 1,080,732 3,873,681
31%
1,191,300 5.0%192 5,866,711 7.6%95
113
St. LouisMO7.9%8.4%0.5% 10,234,422 130 125
(4)
97%
(28,778)
122,101,369 0.0% 743,939 587,572 1,331,511
30%
393,007 1.1%42 10,627,429 8.7%110
115
 Tampa / St PetersburgFL4.6%6.0%1.4% 11,708,779 75 90 14 119%979,036 196,358,537 0.5% 3,783,608 2,804,020 6,587,628
29%
1,898,125 3.4%129 13,606,904 6.9%88
99
 ToledoOH7.9%7.6%-0.3% 4,930,410 130 113
(16)
88%375,770 65,144,483 0.6% 177,092 24,361 201,453
0%
0 0.3%12 4,930,410 7.6%96
92
 TucsonAZ4.3%6.4%2.1% 3,381,540 70 96 25 136%1,381,326 52,840,987 2.6% 2,609,162 980,195 3,589,357
43%
1,537,367 6.8%261 4,918,907 9.3%118
125
 TulsaOK7.5%7.3%-0.2% 4,763,796 123 109
(14)
89%1,454,851 65,085,972 2.2% 1,448,103 105,557 1,553,660
32%
501,127 2.4%92 5,264,923 8.1%102
95
WashingtonDC3.4%4.2%0.8% 8,286,431 56 63 7 112%1,351,663 195,901,235 0.7% 3,045,247 2,102,864 5,148,111
49%
2,545,336 2.6%101 10,831,767 5.5%70
71
West MichiganMI8.0%8.6%0.6% 10,592,320 131 128
(3)
98%
(545,342)
122,866,105 -0.4% 277,710 76,144 353,854
81%
285,336 0.3%11 10,877,656 8.9%112
118
Westchester / So ConnecticutCT6.6%6.7%0.1% 10,213,079 108 100
(8)
92%926,430 151,482,172 0.6% 1,217,249 2,641,446 3,858,695
25%
973,200 2.5%98 11,186,279 7.4%93
90
Grand Total / Average--6.1%6.7%0.6% 576,117,160 100 100 0 100%68,869,570 8,535,094,837 0.8% 135,469,586 87,029,865 222,499,451
45%
99,707,712
2.6%
100 675,824,872 7.9%100
100
NOTE: "Distress Index" adjusts the Additions & Vacancy Index to reflect the magnitude of 4th quarter 2007 and 2008 vacancy levels relative to the U.S. and the vacancy increase between 4th quarter 2007 and 2008.
Source: CoStar, Madison Marquette Market Research.
R:\Dc_research\Distressed Properties - 2008\CoStar Total Retail - 4q_YTD
 
Source: CoStar; Madison Marquette Market Research.
NewSanBaltiBostMiamPor tlRaleiWestToleTulsHar tf AustPhilaCinciSt.LWestInlanDaytoSacr IndiaKan
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 18
POTENTIALLY DISTRESSED RETAIL REAL ESTATE MARKETSAS OF YEAR-END 2008
Distress Index (U.S. Average = 100)

Distressed U.S. Retail Real Estate Assets: Predicted Location By Metropolitan Market by Madison Marquette

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STLrealtorleft a comment

I read on http://www.hermannlondon.com that foreclosures in St. Louis are on the rise, but that the good ones are still selling quickly. Thank you for this interesting report, I think it will help me give my clients important information.
04 / 24 / 2009
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