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Phat Dragon Dec 17 Answers

Phat Dragon Dec 17 Answers

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Published by economicdelusion

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Published by: economicdelusion on Dec 19, 2012
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12/24/2012

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1
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given above are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based arereasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The results ultimately achieved may differ substantially from these forecasts.
Phat dragon
Answers:One:d)
more than 5ppts below the trend line. (See chart)
Two:d)
More than 20%. (See chart).Bonus: ULC based appreciation is larger.
Three:d)
All of the above.
 Four: 
India last enjoyed a higher GDP/capita than China in
d)
1983.
Five: 
The best stylized description of the two CCP factions is
b)
Elitists and Populists.
Six: 
The new premier wrote his doctoral thesis on
c)
urbanisation
Seven:a)
The number of automobiles (+333%, versus steel+321%, electricity 186%, housing 158%).
Eight:
If China did not exist global steel output per head wouldhave
d)
Fallen by less than 10%. (See chart).
Nine
: Mortgage debt as a proportion of GDP is around
a)
15%.
Ten
: The standard minimum down payment required for an owneroccupied housing purchase is
c)
30%. Investors are typicallyrequired to put down 40%, while in past stimulatory phases owneroccupiers/first home buyers have had the minimum deposit tem-porarily reduced to 20%.
Eleven
: The average minimum monthly wage in China is closestto
b)
$US200. Note that minimum wages are set at the provinciallevel with a wide range from the wealthiest coastal regions to theinland areas.
Twelve
:
c)
one third of fixed investment was undertaken by state-owned enterprises in 2011.
Thirteen
: The average size of a new dwelling in China is closest to
 b)
110sqm
.Fourteen
:
d)
More than 200 million migrants reside in cities out-side of their province of registration.
Fifteen
:
b)
Pork is the major source of meat protein in China.
Sixteen
: All the countries mentioned have bilateral central bankFX swap lines with the People’s Bank of China.
80901001101201301401501601708090100110120130140150160170Mar-97Mar-00Mar-03Mar-06Mar-09Mar-12%GDP%GDPLoans to GDP
Sources: Westpac Economics, CEIC
Trends fitted toMar-97 to Jun-2004sub sample
Question one: the credit cycleQuestion two: real exchange rate appreciation
708090100110120130140708090100110120130140Jan-94Jan-97Jan-00Jan-03Jan-06Jan-09Jan-12indexindex
RealNominalUSD per Yuan
Sources: CEIC, BIS.Indices = 100 in July 2005.
Question seven: global steel output per head
025507510012515017520022525002550751001251501752002252501950196019701980199020002010Kgsper headKgsper headChinese contribution in kgs per headGlobal with ChinaGlobal without China
Sources:IISI, Maddison,WestpacEconomics.

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