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OUR Jamaica, Electricity Peak and Energy Demand Forecast 2010-2030, 6-2010

OUR Jamaica, Electricity Peak and Energy Demand Forecast 2010-2030, 6-2010

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Published by: Detlef Loy on Dec 19, 2012
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07/01/2013

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Office of Utilities Regulation
Electricity Peak and Energy Demand Forecast2010 - 2030
 
June, 2010
Office of Utilities RegulationElectricity Peak and Energy Demand Forecasts 2010-2030Document No. Elec2010005_FCT001
 
 
Office of Utilities RegulationElectricity Peak and Energy Demand Forecasts 2010-2030Document No. Elec2010005_FCT001
Page 1
Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….22. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST MODEL REVIEW ............................................................................ 173. HISTORICAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND PATTERNS/ CHARACTERISTICS ................................................... 214. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN ELCTRIC DEMAND FORECASTING…………………….274.1 General Economic Conditions………………………………………………………………………………………………………274.1.1 National Economic Growth……………………………………………………………………………………………………….275. FORECAST METHODOLOGY……………………………………………………………………………………………………………305.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 305.2 Explanatory Variables for Models ............................................................................................... 305.3 Determination of Variables Selected .......................................................................................... 355.4 Regression Model Specifications and Results ............................................................................. 385.5 Forecast results ........................................................................................................................... 435.6.1 Base Forecast .......................................................................................................................... 445.6.2 High Forecast Scenario ............................................................................................................ 455.6.3 Low Forecast Scenario ............................................................................................................ 466. APPENDICES ........................................................................................................................................ 476.1 Inputs ................................................................................................................................................. 486.2 Econometric Model Outputs ............................................................................................................. 49
 
 
Office of Utilities RegulationElectricity Peak and Energy Demand Forecasts 2010-2030Document No. Elec2010005_FCT001
Page 2
1.
 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SUMMARY OF CUSTOMER, SALES, AND DEMAND FORECAST
 
The projection of demand and energy requirements for Jamaica’s Electric System wasdeveloped for the period 2010 through 2030. Over this period, system net energy requirementsand peak demand were projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 4.0 and 3.80percent respectively. The present projections are lower when compared to projections of 4.6percent for Net Energy requirements and 4.5 percent for net peak demand obtained for the 2003and 2004 forecasts done by JPS and the OUR respectively.There are two main reasons for the change in these overall growth patterns:1. Assumptions about economic growth variables used in both previous baseforecast were more optimistic than that assumed for this forecast. Theassumptions for this forecast are illustrated in Table 1e.2. The higher nominal electricity prices brought on by the higher fuel prices overthe period, coupled with the significant retrofitting of household lighting withfluorescence Cuban Light bulbs have served to put a damper on averageelectricity usage, in particular for the residential class. Analysis has shown aslower rate of growth in the residential demand curve. Additionally, end-usedata analysis is indicating that major appliance usage for refrigerators andmicrowave are near the saturation points whereas, prior to the last ten yearsthese two appliances were significant drivers for average residential usage.The forecast method used by the OUR seeks to define electricity consumption as a function ofthe growth in the average number of customers and growth in the level of average usage percustomer. Average use per customer is defined as a function of socio-economic variables wheredifferent models are developed for each rate class according to their particular usage pattern.

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