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Applied Geography xxx (2009) 19

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Applied Geography
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apgeog

Characterization of the July 2007 Swaziland re disaster using satellite remote sensing and GIS
Wisdom M. Dlamini*
Swaziland National Trust Commission, P.O. Box 100, Lobamba, Swaziland

a b s t r a c t
Keywords: Disaster Fire GIS MODIS MSG-SEVIRI Swaziland

Data from the NASAS MODIS (Aqua and Terra) and EUMETSATS MSG-SEVIRI satellite sensors is analysed to characterise the geographic and temporal (including diurnal) evolution of the July 2007 re disaster in the Kingdom of Swaziland using a geographic information system (GIS). Signicant re activity was observed during a three-day period beginning on the 27th July 2007. A total of 1358 and 4365 active re hotpots were detected by MODIS and MSG-SEVIRI, respectively, mainly concentrated in the Highveld (70.91% for MODIS, 89.89% for MSG) and Middleveld (11.27% for MODIS, 5.23% for MSG) with MSG/MODIS active re count ratio ranging from a high of 3.69 in the Highveld to a low of 0.06 in the Lubombo Plateau. The results indicate complex differences in spatial re distribution, behaviour and risk within the country and the effect of sensor differences. A pronounced re diurnal cycle with a broad afternoon peak centred on 14:00 local time is observed, in general agreement with observations from the region. Despite their limitations, the study demonstrates the importance and usefulness of remotely sensed data and GIS technology for re disaster and risk assessment for a developing country, where re monitoring resources are scarce. 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduction Scientic evidence exists to suggest that savannah ecosystems evolved and adapted with re as an agent of ecological change (Bond & Keeley, 2005). However, human activities have altered many natural landscapes and placed human beings in direct contact with re or re sources. Fires are known to cause loss of human life and personal property, and economic upsets, whilst heat, smoke and aerosol particles are known to cause disturbances in regional and global atmospheric composition and chemistry, and ultimately on climate (Andreae & Merlet, 2001; van der Werf et al., 2004). Research and results from several studies also suggest that re activity is linked to the El Nino cycle (Randerson et al., 2005; Riano, Moreno Ruiz, Baron Martnez, & Ustin, 2007; van der Werf et al., 2006). Since such conditions are likely to become more frequent in the future, the magnitude and frequency of res may increase (Lavorel, Flannigan, Lambin, & Scholes, 2007). Fires, therefore, have become an area of interest for scientists dealing with climate change and this makes re detection also useful for climatologists. The three elements necessary for combustion, namely heat, oxygen and fuel (Trollope, De Ronde, & Geldenhuys, 2004) form what is commonly known as the re triangle. Other conditions such as topography, fuels and weather, collectively called the re environment, can perpetuate extreme wildre behaviour (Perry, 1998). Drought conditions, such as those that have

* Tel.: 268 6024716; fax: 268 4161875. E-mail address: mwdlamini@gmail.com 0143-6228/$ see front matter 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.10.007

Please cite this article in press as: Wisdom M. Dlamini, Characterization of the July 2007 Swaziland re disaster using satellite remote sensing and GIS, Applied Geography (2009), doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.10.007

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been prevalent in Swaziland and the region over the past few years, trigger re and, coupled with windy conditions, make a small re potentially disastrous. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are generally ideal for the rapid growth and spread of wildres and steeper slopes tend to further increase the rate of re spread. These conditions often persist over Swaziland during the months of July/August more especially in western half of the country and in association with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm phase (Dlamini, 2007). As the synoptic weather pattern changes within the climatic conditions, periods of critical re weather and re behaviour can develop, requiring constant and consistent monitoring. The continuous monitoring of re involves observation of res and re-causing processes, re risk assessment, land cover dynamics analysis, and emission estimation, among others and countries with signicant wildre activity, especially developed countries, have developed ground and air-based monitoring networks (San-Miguel-Ayanz, Ravail, Kelha, & Ollero, 2005). However, due to technological and nancial difculties, developing countries are still lagging behind in taking advantage of such technologies (Flasse, Ceccato, Downey, Raimadoya, & Navarro, 1997). The emergence of satellite remote sensing provides opportunities for continuous, large-scale monitoring, which may overcome the logistical and nancial constraints of ground-based, and air-/satellite-borne observations. Remote sensing instruments on polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites allow re observations at a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. These satellite-based re and thermal anomaly detection systems are indispensable for both research and operational use. Satellite instruments that can simultaneously utilise 3.9 mm and 11 mm channels can be used for re detection due to the 3.9 mm channels strong thermal sensitivity even if only a small portion of the pixel is covered by re (Matson & Dozier, 1981). For a long time, including the present, operational systems have been using data from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite), including a few others such as the DMSP-OLS (San-Miguel-Ayanz et al., 2005). Signicant progress was made with the launch in 1999 and 2002 of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on board the morning descending Terra and afternoon ascending Aqua polar-orbiting earth observation satellites thus offering the opportunity to observe re activity both day and night. MODIS Terra scans the Southern African region between 10:0011:30 am and at night around 22:00pm whereas MODIS Aqua scans in the afternoons between 14:0015:30pm and also in the early morning at 03:00 am (Giglio, Csiszar, & Justice, 2006). Validation results for MODIS indicates that a minimum detectable re size, aming at between 800 and 1000 K and typically detectable at 50% probability, is of the order of 100 m2 (Frost & Vosloo, 2006). The MODIS sensor also includes bands specically selected for re and cloud detection and allows the retrieval of sub-pixel re area and temperature. Although the capabilities of current geostationary satellites are limited, they can provide valuable local, regional and global re products in near real time, and are critical for re detection and monitoring in remote locations and developing countries. Under ideal conditions, the performance of these sensors is somewhat satisfactory and such conditions occur when a re is observed at (or near) nadir on a fairly homogeneous surface, or when no other signicant res are nearby, or when the scene is free of clouds, heavy smoke or sun glint. In these circumstances, the smallest aming re that can be routinely detected (i.e. near 100% probability of detection) is approximately 50 m2 in size. (Giglio, 2007). The accuracy of the re detection by MODIS has been observed to reach up to 90% and even higher (Wang, Zhou, & Wang, 2003). In 2002, EUMETSAT launched Meteosat-8 or Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), which possesses enhanced spectral and temporal capabilities with respect to the then existing generation of Meteosat spacecraft. Its geostationary orbit allows MSG, through its Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) instrument, to take images of the Earth every 15 min, at a spatial resolution of 3 km at nadir for the short wave infrared (SWIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) bands (Jahjah, Laneve, & Marzoli, 2002). The high temporal resolution makes it is very useful for detecting continuously changing phenomena like active res detection as also seen by Schmetz et al. (2002). The coarse resolution, however, limits the detection of small res and validation of the minimum detectable re size for MSG-SEVIRI in southern Africa is still under investigation (Frost & Vosloo, 2006). Validation in the USA on similar satellites have shown detectable sizes in the region of 500 m2, depending on factors such as scan angles, biome, sun position, land surface temperature, cloud cover, amount of smoke and wind direction (Prins, Schmetz, Flynn, Hillger, & Feltz, 2001). Laneve, Castronuovo, and Cadau (2006) report a minimum detectable re size of 1000 m2 in the Mediterranean. High potential for a unique contribution was recognised, given the specic Sun-target sensor geometric conditions, the high revisit frequency, and good spectral resolution of the instrument. Fire-related processes were clearly identied in the list of applications that can be derived from MSG-SEVIRI data. However, all satellite-based re detection systems have their advantages and shortcomings. One of the common shortcomings is the lower limits for re sizes that space-borne instruments can detect and the incapability of detecting res through clouds or thick smoke. Polar-orbiting satellite, on one hand, cannot see short-duration res that take place between the satellite overpasses; on the other hand, geostationary satellites have better temporal resolution, but worse spatial resolution and have difculties when scanning at high viewing angles. San-Miguel-Ayanz et al. (2005) provide an overview of capabilities and limitations of remotely sensed data applications for re emergency management. The main purpose of this study is to describe the geographical occurrence and temporal (daily and diurnal) variation of the July 2007 res as recorded by the two satellite-based re detection systems, MODIS and MSG-SEVIRI. The Swaziland re disaster During the month of July 2007, a series of devastating res blazed throughout Swaziland resulting in widespread destruction of property and even the loss of lives. Propelled by high wind speeds and a prolonged dry season, the res Please cite this article in press as: Wisdom M. Dlamini, Characterization of the July 2007 Swaziland re disaster using satellite remote sensing and GIS, Applied Geography (2009), doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.10.007

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resulted in damage to thousands of hectares of forest and other vegetation, and direct economic losses estimated in the tens of millions of US dollars. This culminated in the declaration of these res by the countrys Prime Minister as a national disaster on the 1st August 2007. A report by the Ministry of Regional Affairs and Youth Affairs, which also houses the Disaster Management Agency, puts the number of homesteads destroyed at 169 and the total number of affected people at 934 with two casualties (MORDYA, 2007). Smoke pollution was evident as the sky was darkened by plumes from the same res. Various media reports suggest acts of arson and negligence. Whilst these may not be ignored, it is critical to understand the underlying eco-climatic factors which may have accelerated and exacerbated the impact of these res. Typically in Swaziland, the driest months of the year occur in the winter, i.e. from around April to September (Goudie & Price-Williams, 1983). When the ENSO warm phase is established, an anomalous dry and warm pattern can be signicantly amplied, as it has been in the past 23 years (Dlamini, 2007). The countrys topography, especially the higher altitude areas, can often be the catalyst for extreme weather conditions which may amplify re behaviour such as was observed during the disaster. Methods Study area The Kingdom of Swaziland, located in southern Africa, is 17 364 km2 in extent straddling latitudes 25 400 and 27 200 South and longitudes 30 400 and 32100 East (Fig. 1). The country is sandwiched between South Africa to the north, west and south, and Mozambique to the east. It is also endowed with tremendous natural diversity and complex topography with elevation that decreases from an average of 1400 m above sea level on the west to below 100 m on the eastern part of the country giving rise to four major eco-climatic (commonly referred to as agro-ecological) regions, namely the Highveld, Middleveld, Lowveld and the Lubombo Plateau (Gibbons, 1981, Goudie & Price-Williams, 1983). Goudie and Price-Williams (1983) and Remmelzwaal (1993) further subdivide the Middleveld into two zones - Middleveld grassveld or Upper Middleveld on the west and Middleveld bushveld or Lower Middleveld on the east; similarly, the Lowveld is partitioned into the Western and Eastern Lowveld (Fig. 1). Climatic variations within the country are largely controlled by topography and within a year there are four seasons with December being mid-summer and June mid-winter. Mean annual rainfall also varies extensively from above 2000 mm per annum in the Highveld to below 500 mm in the Lowveld. Variations in temperature also follow the altitudinal gradients, the Highveld being temperate and seldom hot while the semi-arid Lowveld can record temperatures of up to 40  C during summer. Satellite data analysis Two active re datasets, MODIS and MSG-SEVIRI, from 1 to 31 July 2007 were collected and collated. The MODIS dataset is based on the version 4 contextual re detection algorithm from the MODIS Rapid Response System (Web Fire Mapper, http:// maps.geog.umd.edu/) at a spatial resolution of 1 km (Justice et al., 2002). The MODIS active re data is based on Giglio, Descloitres, Justice, and Kaufmans (2003) enhanced contextual re detection algorithm which uses the 4 mm and 11 mm bands and classies every pixel as missing data, cloud, water, non-re, re, or unknown. A full description of the algorithm is given by Giglio et al. (2003). The MODIS active re product contains information about the detected re pixels including location, observed brightness temperature, pixel size, and re condence. The re condence is calculated by a system of equations within the algorithm and is expressed as a percentage (Giglio, 2007). The condence levels reported in MODIS active res during the period under investigation were explored and it was found that even pixels in areas where the res were intense (plantations) were given a zero condence, most likely due to the obscuration by the thick smoke cover over almost the whole country. From the MOD14A1 (MODIS active re) data, the smoke was found to have been classied as nonre clear land. Therefore, MODIS re pixels with a condence level of 0% were also considered as individual re counts. The 15-min temporal resolution MSG-SEVIRI active re data was obtained from the Council for Scientic and Industrial Research (CSIR) Satellite Application Centre (SAC)/Eskoms Advanced Fire Information System (AFIS). The MSG-SEVIRI system currently uses a contextual algorithm-based on a threshold technique and statistical analysis of each potential re pixel developed by Flasse and Ceccato (1996) for the AVHRR. An improved approach using a Kalman lter model of the normal diurnal cycle is being developed (Van Den Bergh & Frost, 2005). The focus of this analysis is on the July 2007 res during which a majority of the res were large-sized res, big enough to be detected even by the low spatial resolution MSG-SEVIRI sensor. However, due to the low spatial resolution (w4 km) and the spatial scale of the analysis, the MSG-SEVIRI data was found inappropriate for separate geographical analysis of re distribution. The active re hotspots from both the MODIS and MSG-SEVIRI datasets were obtained in the form of ASCII les which were imported into the geographic information system (GIS) software ArcGIS 9.2 (ESRI, 2006) for spatial and temporal analysis. ArcGIS was used for its versatility and its ability to simultaneously handle both spatial and temporal data. To answer some of the important ecological questions it was necessary to relate re activity information to the countrys eco-climatic zones so as to uncover knowledge on which ecosystems or landscapes were most affected. MODIS active re hotspots were then counted for each eco-climatic zone as an indicator of the spatial or geographic distribution of re activity. Basic analysis of the active res detected was undertaken through the calculation of a basic ratio of MSG-SEVIRI to MODIS active res for each ecoclimatic zone. The ratio was calculated to provide information on the behaviour of res where a large MSG/MODIS ratio is used as a proxy of a high degree of large short-duration and intense res that were detected by the geostationary MSG-SEVIRI Please cite this article in press as: Wisdom M. Dlamini, Characterization of the July 2007 Swaziland re disaster using satellite remote sensing and GIS, Applied Geography (2009), doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.10.007

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Fig. 1. Location, eco-climatic zones and elevation of the Kingdom of Swaziland.

that could have been missed by the polar-orbiting MODIS. A ratio of less than unity, on the other hand, indicates the presence of smaller res that are undetected by MSG. A ratio of unity is supposed to indicate the occurrence of res that are most likely simultaneously or equally detected by both sensors. Active res detected by both the MODIS and MSG-SEVIRI during the month of July were counted for each day of the month to ascertain the temporal evolution of the re activity and to conrm the days of intense re activity and relating these to actual observations on the ground. The diurnal re cycle, or the systematic variation in re activity with respect to time of the day, has become a very important temporal metric in re analysis. The high temporal resolution MSG-SEVIRI dataset was used to study the diurnal cycle of re activity for each eco-climatic zone in Swaziland. These were binned into 1-hour intervals to provide more meaningful interpretation. Results and discussion Geographic distribution A total of 1358 hotspots were detected by MODIS over the period under investigation whilst MSG-SEVIRI detected a total of 3926 hotspots. The smoke plumes from these res were spread throughout almost the whole country with most of the res Please cite this article in press as: Wisdom M. Dlamini, Characterization of the July 2007 Swaziland re disaster using satellite remote sensing and GIS, Applied Geography (2009), doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.10.007

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detected in the Highveld followed by the Middleveld regions, the eastern zones recording the least number of res (Fig. 2). MODIS detected 71% and 11% of all active res in the Highveld and Upper Middleveld, respectively. Thus, the most affected eco-climatic zone was the Highveld, consisting mainly of plantation forests and grasslands, conrming Dlaminis (2005) observations that this zone is most prone to res. The Highveld and Upper Middleveld are the areas where hundreds of hectares of plantation forests, natural vegetation (mainly grass) and homesteads were burnt (Dlamini, 2007; MORDYA, 2007). The most evident cluster of res is in the north-western part of the country, located in the Highveld, where the Piggs Peak Timber plantations company reportedly lost tens of millions of US dollars worth of property and an estimated 80% of the total plantation forest area in addition to signicant destruction of other plantations in the south-western part of the country. This geographic distribution of the res illustrates the spatial pattern of the current burning practices, land use and the landscape in the country. Although the exact cause or ignition point of these res has not yet been ascertained, res in Swaziland are generally used by people to facilitate pasture regeneration and in clearing vegetation for farming and settlements whilst commercial/industrial plantation forests are typically designed with networks of rebreaks that are annually burnt in June and July to provide clean belts around the plantation compartments (Dlamini, 2005). Csiszar et al. (2004) observe that the increased risk of accidental res is also due to landscape fragmentation and land cover change which exposes forests and woodlands to res. The steep and rugged topography of the country, more especially the Highveld and Middleveld (Remmelzwvaal, 1993), can often generate the hot, dry, and windy environment needed for extreme re behaviour and accelerated re spread rates. During the period of the res, gusty conditions were prevalent in the country creating perfect conditions for the res. The observations, therefore, indicate that these eco-climatic zones are riskiest in terms of wildres under such conditions and as such re management and control should pay particular attention to these areas.

Fig. 2. MODIS active re hotspots during July 2007 in Swaziland.

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6 W.M. Dlamini / Applied Geography xxx (2009) 19 Table 1 MODIS and MSG-SEVIRI re hotspots by eco-climatic zone (percentage of total indicated in brackets). Eco-climatic zone Highveld Upper Middleveld Lower Middleveld Western Lowveld Eastern Lowveld Lubombo Plateau Total MODIS 963 (70.91) 153 (11.27) 98 (7.22) 56 (4.12) 37 (2.72) 51 (3.76) 1358 MSG-SEVIRI 3529 (89.89) 221 (5.63) 113 (2.88) 18 (0.46) 42 (1.07) 3 (0.08) 3926 MSG/MODIS ratio 3.66 1.44 1.15 0.32 1.13 0.06 2.89

The ratios of MSG-SEVIRI/MODIS active res for all the eco-climatic zones are shown in Table 1. The ratios indicate that MSG-SEVIRI detected more of the destructive and intense large res of the Highveld and Middleveld, whilst MODIS was also effective in detecting smaller res in the Western Lowveld and Lubombo Plateau. However, only res actively burning at the time of the polar-orbiting MODIS satellite overpass could be detected. The ndings indicate that the MSG-SEVIRI detections were the fast-spreading res of the Highveld and Upper Middleveld. It is, however, possible that for numerous small res detected as one re pixel by MSG-SEVIRI re product, MODIS detected these as separate res due to its smaller spatial resolution. Calle et al. (2005) provide a very good comparative analysis of MSG and MODIS active re performances and found false alarm rates of as high as 70% and as low as 10% within the hottest zones of res. Van den Berg and Frost (2005) also observe MSG-SEVIRI/MODIS active re ratios varying from 7 to 1.9 depending on the size and characteristics of the re. However, the false alarm rate decreases with increasing re size reaching zero with re sizes of the order of 0.35 ha while the probability of detection increases with re size reaching 100% with res greater than 15 ha (Costantini, Zavagli, Cisbani, & Greco, 2006). Accordingly, the res in the country, particularly in the Highveld, were very large and intense and so were their detection probability, thereby minimising omission errors especially from MODIS. The MSG-SEVIRI/MODIS ratios also give credibility to a proposition that the size, duration and intensity of the intense res, coupled with differences in sensor characteristics and algorithms, is the main reason for the differences in detected res. MSG-SEVIRI Cloud or smoke cover, and re location on the topography are some of the factors that may have limited the ability of the satellites, especially MODIS, to detect res. Of particular note is the prevalence of thick plumes around the country which might have also hindered or limited the detection of res beneath the smoke. Temporal distribution Temporal analysis reveals that a majority of the res were detected from the period 2729 July 2007 (Fig. 3). Actually, MODIS detected 76.73% of the July 2007 res during the three-day period whilst MSG-SEVIRI detected 88.79% during the same period indicating high spread rates during this time. A notable signal of re activity was rst detected on 24 July followed by a dramatic upsurge on 27 July. Fire suppression efforts were rst made on 24 July 2007 and hopes were elevated among the plantation forest companies that the re had been successfully put out. However, the res were rekindled aided by strong winds and dry conditions resulting, as Fig. 3 indicates, in the three-day period of intense re activity. The prevalent strong winds most likely caused spotting, i.e. the start of a new re ahead of a main re by an airborne rebrand (Trollope, 1993), which typically occurs during high speed winds exceeding 11 km/h and in crown res within highly ammable vegetation such as plantation forests (Trollope & Potgieter, 1985). While MSG-SEVIRI was still detecting an increase in res on

Fig. 3. MODIS and MSG-SEVIRI active re counts for 131 July 2007 in Swaziland.

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28 July, MODIS identied the beginning of a gradual decline. This could be attributed to the fact that most of the res were intense and fast due to the windy conditions and could have been missed by MODIS due to its orbital characteristics. Another reason, as stated in the previous section, is the effect of the dense smoke plumes which could have obscured a majority of the res mainly burning intensely within the plantation forests. The number of active res decreased after 29 July 2007 after the large areas of vegetation (mainly plantation forests and grass) biomass and other material had been quickly consumed. The usefulness of satellite re observation in studying temporal re evolution is clearly demonstrated in these observations. Diurnal-scale analysis of biomass burning is very important because in the tropics, terrestrial carbon sinks have also been observed to have a strong diurnal cycle (Kauffman, Steele, Cummings, & Jaramillo, 2003; Prins, Feltz, Menzel, & Ward, 1998; WRAP, 2005), which is of particular interest for short-lived trace gases and aerosols in the lower troposphere. Diurnal re behaviour information is also important for applications in support of re suppression and for emergency preparedness purposes. In this study, the MSG-SEVIRI (Fig. 4) data reveals a strong and interesting diurnal cycle with most res aring strongly from late morning (11:00) to the afternoon (17:00) and again at late night (22:00) to early morning (04:00) with an overall peak in re activity centred around 14:00 local time. This indicates that the res were spreading faster and burning more intensely, thereby indicating that risk is high and suppression efforts should be increased during these times. Low re activity is observed in the mornings and in the early evening, typical of human managed ecosystems (Zoumas, Eva, Gregoire, & Stibig, 2006). The observed diurnal cycle patterns are comparable to the observations by Eck et al. (2003) during southern African biomass burning seasons. Giglio et al. (2006) and Peck, Rice, Tressel, Lee-Wagner, and Oshika (2000) also found a strong southern African diurnal re cycle with a peak around 14:00 local time, at which time res tend to be burning in larger numbers and with greater intensity. Long (2006), in a study of extreme re events in Victoria (Australia), found peak re danger at 15:00. The diurnal pattern in this study is more or less similar for all the eco-climatic zones with minor differences that could be attributed to differences in fuel (vegetation and land cover) types and the possible inuence of elevation and prevailing weather conditions. Cheney (1981) and Zoumas et al. (2006) attribute the broad morning to afternoon peak to the peak re season whilst the switch from afternoon to night time res follows the rainfall reduction gradient and land cover type. Since July is near the peak of the re season in the country (Dlamini, 2005), the burning likely became long lasting and persistent through the night particularly in the Highveld. These res were aided by the prevalent and re-favourable climate conditions of long and persistent drought experienced in the country in the past few years. The diurnal variations also indicate the inuence of diurnally driven processes of boundary layer mixing or fast changing conditions such as frontal passages and windy conditions (Trollope, 1993). Surface meteorological conditions, coupled with certain synoptic weather patterns, have been shown to be important factors affecting re occurrence probability (Long, 2006; Van Wilgen & Scholes, 1997). Temperature has also an important role in diurnal re behaviour because in the cooler higher altitudes (such as the Middleveld and Highveld), re occurrence is delayed and conned during the warmer periods of the day. The results, analogous to Beck and Armitage (2004) and Zoumas et al. (2006), are indicative of the response of fuel moisture content throughout the day typically reaching minimum in the afternoon, increasing rapidly to an overnight maximum that is maintained until the late evening/early morning. Similarly, Everson, Smith, and Everson (1985) found that the moisture content of the upper grass layer declined from 33% in the morning to 11% in the afternoon in the montane grasslands of Natal (South Africa) thus inuencing the diurnal re activity patterns. However, the behaviour of the Highveld

Fig. 4. Diurnal variation in MSG-SEVIRI active re counts in Swaziland.

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and Upper Middleveld res produced a relatively uniform graph indicating little variation due to the intensity and size of the res. The ndings point to the geostationary sensors possible usefulness for evaluating diurnal re evolution, detecting shortduration res and for resolving the diurnal behaviour of large res. The geostationary MSG-SEVIRI sensor offers a great opportunity to develop a robust early warning system capable of timely identication of forest res and to monitor them in real time thus minimising damage. However, caution needs to be taken and considered with satellite observations because the daytime radiance signal at 3.7 mm may be a combination of both emitted thermal and a reected solar radiation which may elevate the signal to produce false re alarms (Gao, Xiong, & Li, 2006). Similarly, daytime thermal radiation from hot background surfaces and/or increased solar reection can also saturate the 3.7 mm channel (Di Bisceglie, Episcopo, Galdi, & Ullo, 2005). Active res from polar-orbiting satellites, on the contrary, represent a limited temporal sample due to the satellites restricted overpass frequency, coupled with the diurnal re cycle (Hyer, Kasischke, & Allen, 2007). Conclusion and recommendations The usefulness, including the unique strengths and limitations, of remotely sensed active re data from both polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites in understanding the geographic and temporal characteristics of re is demonstrated in this study. Despite the observed limitations, satellite monitoring of res proves to be useful for a resource-constrained developing country such as Swaziland. There is an observed distinctive spatial distribution pattern in the re activity during the month of the Swaziland re disaster. In general, the highest proportion of re hotspots were detected in the Highveld and Middleveld, where a majority of the devastating res raged through the countrys plantation forests thus indicating the high re risk in these areas. The high temporal resolution MSG-SEVIRI detected more res in the Highveld and Upper Middleveld and reveals a distinct diurnal variation in re activity where peak activity is observed mainly in the afternoon and late evening/early morning during when res are most likely to burn. The diurnal re cycle slightly varies between the eco-climatic zones since most of the large res were concentrated in the Highveld and Upper Middleveld and also points to the inuence of land cover/ land use, elevation and the prevalent weather characteristics in line with observation from the region ad other parts of the world. The burning patterns presented in this study could be used as input information for the further analysis of current and future re regimes and re risk according to local and global change. This study also helps to understand active re detection differences that can be explained by differences in orbits, re algorithms, and re pixel characteristics. Ultimately, integration of multi-sensor data can benet from high temporal resolution (MSG-SEVIRI) data and medium spatial resolution (MODIS) re products to provide more information than either product could provide alone. Increasing observational and technological skill and experience at recognizing dangerous re activity will offer signicant lead time to anticipate future disasters and minimize losses and environmental impacts from such disasters. The capabilities of remote sensing data, such as demonstrated in this study, offer exceptional value for early warning and disaster assessment even for developing countries like Swaziland. References
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Please cite this article in press as: Wisdom M. Dlamini, Characterization of the July 2007 Swaziland re disaster using satellite remote sensing and GIS, Applied Geography (2009), doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.10.007