/

2010 04 06

HEV
2 100
2000-3000 2020 HEV
17%, 39270
40
09 50%
31800 CSM 2012 3.5
07 2015 46%

25% 10%

20% 2014
9600

15-30% 10% 90%

30% 2014
5825

08
76% 58% 21%
38%

A0230203100047

yepp@swsresearch.com

guopeng@swsresearch.com

(8621)23297259
gaoyuan@swsresearch.com
99

862123295888

http://www.swsresearch.com

(sw0789)1
compliance@swsresearch.com ""

2010 04

2-3

N52

10

N38SH, N44SHN40UH

N40SH N42SH 1 25
8

(sw0789)2

2010 04

1. ................ 6
2.
.......................................................................... 7
2.1 .........................8
2.2 ......10
2.3 ......13

3.
........................................................................ 15
3.1HDDVCM
.....................................................................................................15
3.2
.................................................................................................16
3.3 ...........................16

4.
............................................................. 17
4.1
.................................................................................................17
4.2
.................................................................................................19
4.3 ....................20

5. 20
5.1 .......................20
5.2
.....................................................................................................21

(sw0789)3

2010 04

5.3 ................23

6.
........................................................................ 24
7. .................................... 25
8. ..................................................................... 27
8.1 .............................................................................27
8.2 HEV ..............................29
8.2 ....................................................30

(sw0789)4

2010 04

1..................................... 6
2............................................................................................. 7
3......................................................................................... 7
4............................................................. 7
5................................................................................. 8
6HEV................. 9
7 2012 2007 ........................... 10
8............................................................................... 11
9....................................................................... 12
10......................................................... 12
11..................................................... 14
12..................................................................................... 15
13SSD ............................................................. 15
14PC........................................................ 16
15
15% ......................................................................... 17
16......................................................... 17
17 80% ................................................................ 17
18 21% ................................................ 18
19 58%..................................... 18
20 40%..................................... 19
21 70% ........................................ 19
22......................................... 20
23................................. 20
24 59.3% ............................................. 21
25......................................................................... 21

(sw0789)5

2010 04

2608 ........................................ 22
27 37% .................................................... 23
28/.................................................... 23
29............................................................. 24
30................................................................. 24
31............................. 25
32..................................................................... 27
33 % ............................................................... 27
34................................................................................. 28
35......................................................................................... 29
36 ................................................................................................ 29
37..................................................................................... 31
38................................................................................. 31

1..................................... 9
2............................................................................... 10
3....................................................... 13
4....................................................... 13
5NEOMAXMQ................................... 19
6................................................................... 21
7

REO......................................................................... 22

8....................................... 24
9....................................................................... 27

(sw0789)6

2010 04

1.

70%

1
,
8.1%
, 8.1%
, 56.6%
, 17.3%

, 9.9%

(BHmax)(bHc)
(jHc)

(Nd Fe B)

(sw0789)7

2010 04

2.

HDD VCM()/
MRI()
70%

, 8%

VCM, 4%

, 6% , 2%
VCM, 35%

MRI, 15%

, 18%

/
, 35%

IEEE

(sw0789)8

MRI, 1%

, 5%

, 35%
, 20%

IEEE

2010 04

N35-N54 N35H
N38SH
N44SHN40UH
N50N52
N48 N52
50M S54 N48
N54
5

2.1

3 HEV
60KW 2 100
HEV 2000-3000
2020 HEV 17%

HEV

(sw0789)9

2010 04

6HEV
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2007

2010

2015

HEV

2020
PHEV

EV

40 100

40%
50%
1

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

10

27

ABS

11

28

12

29

13

30

14

31

15

32

16

33

17

34

/DVD

(sw0789)10

2010 04

50% 0.5 EPS

0.25 2009
3.5 5300 31800
CSM 2012 3.5 2007
7 2012 2007
10000

15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%

8000
6000
4000
2000

3.5t

2015E

2014E

2013E

2012E

2011E

2010E

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

YOY%

CSM

2.2

N38SH
N40,N42

2007

(sw0789)11

1.5MW

10

2010 04

IGBT

20%

2009 152GW
30GW

(sw0789)12

11

2010 04

9
200000

50%

150000

40%
30%

100000

20%

50000

10%

2010F

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

0%
1997

YOY%

2009 21GW 74
9GW 92
29
6

10
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%

40000
30000
20000
10000

2010F

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

YOY%

50%

(sw0789)13

12

2010 04

09 15% 10
20% 2014
50%

28%
1.5MW 1.2
2010
7600 2014 50%
2.5

3
2008

2009

MW)

121188

151813

189813

233633

285023

343543

407263

(MW)

27261

30625

38000

43820

51390

58520

63720

5452.2

7656.25

9500

13146

15417

23408

31860

4361.76

6125

7600

10516.8

12333.6

18726.4

25488

1308.528

1837.5

2280

3155.04

3700.08

5617.92

7646.4

MW)

12210

20000

32472

47472

62472

79472

99472

MW

6298

7790

12472

15000

15000

17000

20000

629.8

1558

4988.8

6750

7500

9350

12000

503.84

1246.4

3991.04

5400

6000

7480

9600

151.152

373.92

1197.312

1620

1800

2244

2880

MW

2010F

2011F

2012F

2013F

2014F

MW

GWEC

2.3

2
0.5

30%

2-3 dB

(sw0789)14

13

2010 04

8-12
12-15

10Hz

1983 2007
90% 70%

90%
2
30%

2010-2015 40%50%60%70%80%90% 2009

600 30%
0.25 450 2014
2330 5825

11
2500

300%

2000

250%
200%

1500

150%
1000

100%

500

50%

0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F

YOY

(sw0789)15

14

2010 04

3.

3.1HDDVCM

VCM

VCM 50%
VCM
VCM 90%2009 VCM

VCM 2014 VCM

2270 VCM
SSD

12

13 SSD

DVD DVD DVD /DVD

0.005Kg2008 DVD
535 DVD 735

(sw0789)16

15

2010 04

14 PC
20%
15%
10%
5%
4Q10e

3Q10e

2Q10e

1Q10e

4Q09

3Q09

2Q09

1Q09

4Q08

3Q08

2Q08

1Q08

4Q07

3Q07

-10%

2Q07

-5%

1Q07

0%

-15%
PC
IDC

3.2

RMI-CT 50

0.53
1 5003000
RMI

3.3

2007
918 43% 2009 60%
1320 0.5
6600
100%

(sw0789)17

16

2010 04

15
15%
200%

3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

150%
100%
50%
0%

19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
E

-50%

YOY%

NC

01
10

4.

4.1

2002 -2008 26.5%

76%
58%
21% 38%

16

(sw0789)18

17 80%

17

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1996

2008

2007

0%

2006

0
2005

20%

2004

15000

2003

40%

2002

30000

2001

60%

2000

45000

1999

80%

1998

60000

1997

100%

1996

75000

1998

1997

2010 04

IEEE

IEEE

18 21%

19 58%

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

IEEE

70%

4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0

IEEE

40%
70%

(sw0789)19

18

2010 04

20 40%

21 70%

120%
100%

, 6.16%

80%

,
23.28%

60%
40%

,
70.56%

20%
2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

0%

IEEE

IEEE

4.2

220
5

5NEOMAX MQ

RE-Fe-B NEOMAX

2003

2003

2003

RE-Fe,Co-B NEOMAX

2008

2003

2007

Nd,Dy-Fe,Co-B NEOMAX

2003

2010

2003

RE-Fe-B NEOMAX

2003

2014

RE-Fe,Co-B NEOMAX

2003

2014

RE-Fe-B MQ

2003

2006

2004

CoMQ

2004

2012

Nd-Fe(Co)-B
5645651 2014 7 8
Co Co Dy

(sw0789)20

19

2010 04

2014

4.3

2013

22 23

2014F

2013F

2012F

2011F

2010F

2009

2014F

2013F

2012F

0%
2008

0
2007

5%
2006

10000

2011F

10%

20000

2010F

15%

30000

2009

20%

40000

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2008

50000

35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2007

25%

2006

60000

IEEE

YOY%

IEEE

5.

5.1

(sw0789)21

20

2010 04

59.3%2008 12.4 ROE

90%
24 59.3%

,
13.5%

,
14.0%
,
3.9%

25

,
4.9%

,
0.5%

,
59.3%

,
94.5%

,
9.3%

USGS

USGS

5.2

10

2003 10

17% 15% 13%

2005 5

2006 4

2006 4

2006 20%

2006 11

10%

2006 11

41

2006 12

, 47 39

2007 1

2007 1

2007 6

10% 15% 10%

2008 3

2008 8

2008 07 21%

(sw0789)22

21

2010 04

2008 11

25% 15%

2008 12

20%

2009 1

2009 33%

2009 4

2009 4

2009 2008 6%

2009 9

2009 3%

2009 9

2009 21%

08

2608
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

YOY

2009
YOY

2010 3 15 2009 8%

(sw0789)23

REO

2006

78200

8320

86520

2007

78200

8820

87020

2008

78500

9120

87620

22

2010 04

2009

72300

10020

82320

2010

77000

12200

89200

5.3

Feb-10

Aug-09

Feb-09

Aug-08

Feb-08

Aug-07

-,
20%

Feb-07

, 9%

Aug-06

-
, 37%

, 7%

Feb-06

, 11%

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Aug-05

-
, 6%

28/

Feb-05

27 37%

, 10%

09

20%

(sw0789)24

23

2010 04

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

25

20

20

15

15
10

10

30
25
20
15
10
5
0

2007H 2007 2008H 2008 2009H 2009

2009

2009H

2008

2008H

2007

2007H

2006

0
2005

0
2006H

5
2005H

30

25

30

29

6.

2004
70%

crucible ugimag magnequench

VAC Neorem

NeomaxTDK

220

220 5
2008 45%

(sw0789)25

24

2010 04

70%
31
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

7.
2-3

1.

N52

20% 10% 8000

800 3500 2500 1000
500 VCMVoice CoilMotor
60%
PhilipsSiemensWDSandisc
15~20%

(sw0789)26

25

2010 04

N52

863

2.

70% 5000 3000

3500 2000 8000
17%
150 50
35%
21

3.

1000
300

4.
N4544UH40SH35UH30EH33UH
NdFeB 3000

1440 90% 10

(sw0789)27

26

2010 04

5.
1000t/ NN35-N50M
33M-45MH33H-42H), SH(30SH-40SH),UH(30UH-35UH),EH(28EH-33EH)6
30
9

EPS

4 2

PE

2010E

2011E

2012E

2010E

2011E

2012E

12.24

0.27

0.39

0.67

45

31

18

17.3

0.35

0.52

0.78

49

33

22

28.28

0.7

1.07

1.36

40

26

21

8.95

0.037

0.052

0.062

242

172

144

13.17

0.048

0.058

0.071

274

227

185

130

98

78

32

33 %

10000

120

8000

100

6000

80

4000

60
40

2000

20

2009

2009H

2008

2008H

2007H

2007

8.
8.1

(sw0789)28

27

2010 04

SMCoNdFeB SmCo
1530MGOe NdFeB 2750MGOe

60 -
- 630 90.5 SmCo

100

11-5 SmCo5
2-17 Sm2Co17 2NdFeB
3RE-Fe-N RE-Fe-C
12
3
HDDR4
HDDR5HDDR
6
7

34

(sw0789)29

28

2010 04

8.2 HEV
20 80

HEV

HEV

35

(sw0789)30

36

29

2010 04

USGS

USGS

8.2

30%
50%

5%~10%

(sw0789)31

30

2010 04

37

38

(sw0789)32

31

2010 04

compliance@swsresearch.com .

6
Buy

20

Outperform

520

(Neutral)

55

(Underperform)

6
Overweight

(Neutral)

(Underweight)

300

http://www.swsresearch.com

(sw0789)33

32