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Macro Update: Weak outlook for Finland in 2013

Macro Update: Weak outlook for Finland in 2013

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Published by SEB Group

The drop in Finland’s GDP in the third quarter was broad based and indicators have continued to weaken. SEB’s economists revise their forecast slightly downward compared to Nordic Outlook November. GDP is expected to grow by 0.4 per cent 2013 and 1.8 per cent in 2014. After growing in the first quarter 2012, recession hit Finland with GDP falling in the second and third quarter by 1.1 per cent and 0.1 per cent respectively compared to the previous quarter. Data for different parts of the economy points at a weak fourth quarter. For the full year 2012, GDP is expected to have fallen slightly compared to 2011.

The drop in Finland’s GDP in the third quarter was broad based and indicators have continued to weaken. SEB’s economists revise their forecast slightly downward compared to Nordic Outlook November. GDP is expected to grow by 0.4 per cent 2013 and 1.8 per cent in 2014. After growing in the first quarter 2012, recession hit Finland with GDP falling in the second and third quarter by 1.1 per cent and 0.1 per cent respectively compared to the previous quarter. Data for different parts of the economy points at a weak fourth quarter. For the full year 2012, GDP is expected to have fallen slightly compared to 2011.

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Published by: SEB Group on Jan 10, 2013
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09/17/2013

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Finland: Weak outlook for 2013
THURSDAY
10 JANUARY 2013
 
After growing in the first quarter 2012,
recession hit Finland
with GDP falling in thesecond and third quarter by 1.1 and 0.1% q/q respectively (Chart 1). Data for differentparts of the economy points at a weak fourth quarter. For the full year 2012, GDP isexpected to have fallen slightly compared to 2011.
 
The drop in GDP in the third quarter was broad based and indicators have continued toweaken (Chart 2). We revise our forecast slightly downward compared to
Nordic Outlook 
 November.
GDP is expected to grow by 0.4% 2013 and 1.8% 2014.
 
 
With world growth below trend in the near term
exports will continue to be a drag onthe economy
. The confidence in industry is negative and on a falling trend, although stillfar from the levels that we saw during 2009.
 
We expect
industrial production and exports to be weak in the near future
. Thedownturn in exports is to some extent dampened by a relatively better development inRussia (3
rd
largest export market). Exports are expected to have been roughly unchangedin 2012 compared to 2011 and will start growing again at a slow pace in 2013 (Chart 3).Foreign trade will have a negative contribution to growth 2013 and 2014 as importsincrease faster than exports.
 Economic Research+46 8 763 85 94
Key data
Percentage change
2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP 2.7 -0.1 0.4 1.8Unemployment
*
7.8 7.8 8.3 8.1Inflation 3.3 3.2 2.3 2.1Government fiscal balance** -0.6 -1.0 -1.0 -0.8
* Per cent of labour force, ** Per cent of GDPSource: SEB

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