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Analisa Regresi Logistik

Analisa Regresi Logistik

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1
Analisa Regresi Logistik" Pengaruh NPM, CR, TATO, ROE, DTA, Posisi Kas dan ROA Terhadap FinancialDistress Yang Dilami Perusahaan "
Penelitian menggunakan populasi seluruh perusahaan
consumer goods, food and beverages
dan
tobacco
pada Bursa Efek Indonesia pada periode tahun 2006 sampai dengan tahun 2008, di manaberdasarkan ICMD terdapat 25 perusahaan. Penelitian ini menggunakan 7 buah variabel bebasdan 1 buah variabel terikat yaitu
 financial distress
. Adapun variabel bebasnya adalah NPM, CR,TATO, ROE, DTA, Posisi Kas dan ROA.
 
A. Data Penelitian
FinancialNet Profit Control Total Asset Return onAktiva PajakPosisi KasReturn OnDistressMarginRiskTurnoverEquityTangguhanAssetY1X1X2X3X4X5X6X7ADES 1-0.11740.510.7-29.30.720.4951-8.22AQUA 00.03537.822.3214.160.410.09238.21CEKA 10.01427.353.2511.290.590.01514.61DAVO 1-0.150527.50.92-75.790.820.2305-13.91DLTA 10.12433.790.9616.110.250.532811.99FAST 00.06191.382.5825.960.390.672415.96INDF 10.02670.90.9812.170.670.29262.61MYOR 00.05022.191.3415.760.560.18776.71MLBI 00.16770.941.4164.590.63430.527523.61PTSP 10.02071.092.54-89.120.90.24055.24PSDN 10.01322.782.49-10.160.530.39933.29SKLT 10.01361.711.56-4.240.50.12772.12STTP 10.00771.2311.330.420.01890.77SIPD 10.01172.281.682.640.250.06121.97SMAR 00.0651.721.6122.670.540.10210.44AISA 10.05860.890.487.340.620.06282.82TBLA 10.0161.11.417.130.680.31962.26ULTJ 10.22291.850.7826.750.350.19717.45TCID 00.09268.11.3614.070.10.199612.61MRAT 00.07246.310.877.340.140.35816.28UNVR 00.154512.3977.640.520.232837.01BATI 1-0.0612.082.69-34.710.530.3709-16.41RMBA 00.04032.481.3313.820.610.02515.37GGRM 00.06222.221.2612.120.360.06677.81ADES 1-1.177140.340.74-230.760.620.1215-86.62AQUA 00.033767.092.1912.990.420.07837.39CEKA 10.030371.361.3211.270.640.02824.02DAVO 10.074459.270.7217.60.690.43495.39DLTA 10.107614.170.7410.320.220.38047.99FAST 00.06451.282.5327.170.40.72616.29INDF 00.035190.920.9413.630.630.38433.3MYOR 00.050061.881.4913.090.410.1157.48MLBI 00.086230.591.5742.680.68190.193313.57PTSP 10.0011.462.21-15.240.930.17260.22PSDN 1-0.014412.222.0610.350.610.2638-2.96SKLT 10.024221.531.3-5.960.470.08653.14STTP 10.025981.771.164.350.310.03573.01SIPD 10.012982.411.262.110.220.01391.64SMAR 00.12241.72128.030.560.087512.26AISA 10.032580.910.614.50.560.05871.99TBLA 10.052721.810.7510.40.620.22443.96ULTJ 10.026912.370.833.650.390.07252.22TCID 00.1092317.611.416.510.070.264615.34MRAT 00.044157.680.83.980.120.37313.52UNVR 00.156411.112.3572.880.490.162336.79BATI 1-0.021952.122.31-10.180.50.2048-5.06RMBA 00.052973.531.1915.760.60.19936.29GGRM 00.052711.951.1510.220.410.02846.07ADES 1-0.953730.120.5859.441.930.0098-55.22AQUA 00.029027.182.1210.920.430.06946.14CEKA 10.03912.471.397.870.310.08425.45DAVO 10.118485.980.6120.110.640.49937.25DLTA 00.10913.750.6910.020.240.28567.58FAST 00.0541.072.6423.920.40.653614.25INDF 00.030141.181.3513.130.650.24044.06MYOR 00.047463.911.279.650.360.06816.02MLBI 00.082580.531.4637.080.674770.02412.05PTSP 1-0.012731.971.922164.370.940.195-2.44PSDN 10.022792.171.8-12.850.60.23314.11SKLT 10.023911.741.2-5.120.440.10522.86STTP 10.025982.691.194.210.270.01923.09SIPD 10.036853.7914.160.120.03823.68SMAR 00.133381.540.8924.370.510.193611.82AISA 10.000391.080.920.140.740.0820.04TBLA 10.044291.480.586.120.580.22872.58ULTJ 00.017641.180.671.810.350.17841.18TCID 00.105218.781.4216.480.10.094614.89MRAT 10.040189.250.783.440.090.37083.12UNVR 00.151881.272.4572.690.490.389537.22BATI 1-0.045282.572.24-17.70.430.0301-10.15RMBA 00.048561.611.2812.220.490.16166.2GGRM 00.038261.891.217.660.390.02964.6400.11950.542.33620.540.106627.89Ket1 = mengalami0 = Tidak MengalamiKode
 
2B. Hasil Running Data Menggunakan SPSS 18
Case Processing Summary
 Unweighted Cases
a
N PercentSelected Cases Included in Analysis 73 100.0Missing Cases 0 .0Total 73 100.0Unselected Cases 0 .0Total 73 100.0a. If weight is in effect, see classification table for the total number of cases.
Dependent Variable Encoding
 Original Value Internal ValueTidak Mengalami 0Mengalami 1
Berdasarkan pada tabel diatas terdapat 73 jumlah kasus yang dianalisa, dimana variabeldependen dengan kode 1 adalah mengalami Financial Distress dan kode 0 adalah tidak mengalami Financial Distress.
Classification Table
a,b
 Observed PredictedFinancial DistressPercentageCorrectTidakMengalami MengalamiStep 0 Financial Distress Tidak Mengalami 0 34 .0Mengalami 0 39 100.0Overall Percentage 53.4a. Constant is included in the model.b. The cut value is .500
Pada tampilan diatas memperlihatkan informasi tetang regresi logistik dengan hanyamempuyai konstanta. Keakuratan dan prediksi dari model yang hanya dengan konstatnta iniadalah sebesar 53,4%.
 
3
Variables in the Equation
 B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)Step 0 Constant .137 .235 .342 1 .559 1.147
Variables not in the Equation
 Score df Sig.Step 0 Variables X1 5.830 1 .016X2 .053 1 .817X3 2.235 1 .135X4 .164 1 .686X5 4.181 1 .041X6 .723 1 .395X7 14.501 1 .000Overall Statistics 24.683 7 .001
Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
 Chi-square df Sig.Step 1 Step 37.882 1 .000Block 37.882 1 .000Model 37.882 1 .000Step 2 Step 7.767 1 .005Block 45.648 2 .000Model 45.648 2 .000Step 3 Step 4.888 1 .027Block 50.536 3 .000Model 50.536 3 .000
Pada tabel diatas menyajikan uji serentak pada semua koefisien regresi logistik. Metode yangdigunakan adalah
stepwise
, maka hasilnya ditampilkan dalam beberapa langkah. Dalam stepkedua menghasilkan 3 dari 7 variabel independen yang berpengaruh terhadap variabeldependen yang ada. Dengan nilai
chi squares
signifikan sehingga kita bisa menyimpulkanbahwa variabel X1, X5 dan X7 secara bersama - sama mempengaruhi variabel Y.

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