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Thayer China’s 18th Party Congress: Domestic and External Policy Outcomes

Thayer China’s 18th Party Congress: Domestic and External Policy Outcomes

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Published by Carlyle Alan Thayer

An analysis of three issues arising from the 18th congress of the Chinese Communist Party: (1) domestic priorities; (2) external policies; and (3) implications for Vietnam. A brief assessment of the impact of President Obama's re-election on the Asia-Pacific.

An analysis of three issues arising from the 18th congress of the Chinese Communist Party: (1) domestic priorities; (2) external policies; and (3) implications for Vietnam. A brief assessment of the impact of President Obama's re-election on the Asia-Pacific.

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Categories:Types, Research, History
Published by: Carlyle Alan Thayer on Jan 11, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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05/14/2014

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Hlkxvgpekhs _frlp
Hjcke–x 5:
pj
Reps Hlkifxx4@lafxpch ek` Fzpfkeg RlgchsLvphlafxHegsgf E+ PjesfDekves 6' ?258
Hjcke–x 5:
pj
Rerps Hlkirfxx4 @lafxpch ek` Fzpfrkeg Rlgchs Lvphlafx
Pjcx frlp e``fxxfx nlv xfpx ln cxxvfx ecxcki nla Hjcke–x f
hfkpgs hlkhgv`f` 5:
pj
 reps hlkifxx+ Pjf frlp ncxp e``fxxfx gcmfgs `lafxpch rclcpcfx nl Hjcke vk`fpjf gfe`fxjcr ln Zc Dckrcki ek` pjf hjeggfkifx Zc ycgg nehf ck e``fxxcki ckpfkeg
cxxvfx+ Xfhlk`' pjf frlp e``fxxfx Hjcke–x gcmfgs fzpfkeg rlg
chcfx vk`f pjf kfygfe`fxjcr pfea ovp klpfx pjep carlpekp hjekifx ck xpepf gfe`fxjcr rlxcpclkx ycgg
klp lhhv vkpcg pjf ncxp xfxxclk ln pjf Kepclkeg Rflrgf–x Hlkifxx ck Aehj+ Pjc`'
pjf frlp pfkpepc~fgs xmfphjfx lvp pjf gcmfgs cargchepclkx
ln Hjcke–x kfy `lafxpch
ek` fzpfkeg rlgchcfx nl ^cfpkea+ Nlvpj' pjf frlp lnnfx e ocfn exxfxxafkp ln pjf
carehp ln Rfxc`fkp Oeehm Loeae–x f
!fgfhpclk nl pjf Exce!Rehcnch+5+ Pjf ckpfkeg rlgchs ln Hjcke enpf pjf 5:pj Hlkifxx ln pjf Hjckfxf HlaavkcxpReps+Pjf 5:
pj
Hlkifxx ln pjf Hjckfxf Hlaavkcxp Reps *HHR# aemf` e aedl pvkckirlckp+ Hjcke cx rlcxf` pl hes lvp aedl xpvhpveg fnlax vk`f cpx kfzp Nc~f!SfeRgek+ Hjcke ecax pl `lvogf cpx Ilxx @lafxpch Rl`vhp ek` rf hercpe ckhlaf' ek`ckhfexf `lafxpch hlkxvarpclk yjcgf `fhfexcki carlpx+ Fhlklach ilypj epfxaes xgly ovp
Hjcke ycgg ofhlaf pjf ylg`–x geifxp fhlklas os ?282 cn klp fegcf+
 Ekpc!Hlvrpclk e Rclcps
Hjcke–x kfy gfe`fxjcr cx klpeogf nl pjf cxf ln xl
!heggf` rckhfgckix pl mfsrlxcpclkx+ Pjf rckhfgckix ef kepclkegcxpx ycpj fzpfkxc~f ckpffxpx ck ovxckfxx ek`xpepf!lykf` fkpfrcxfx+ Pjf Ol Zcgec ennec plvhjf` e ey rlgcpcheg kf~f os fzrlxckipjf nckekhceg ennecx ln jcij!gf~fg reps gfe`fx ek` pjfc neacgcfx+Pjf 5:pj Hlkifxx xcikegf` xcikcnchekp hjekifx ck pjf lrfepclkx ln pjf rlgcpchegxsxpfa= ck repchvge pjf e`ackcxpepclk ln pjf Xpepf Hlvkhcg ycgg of xpfeagckf` ek`pjf vgf ln gey ycgg of rlalpf`+ Hjcke ycgg hlkhfkpepf lk pjf ncijp eieckxphlvrpclk' fxrfhceggs jcij rlncgf hexfx' ck l`f pl alggcns rvogch lrckclk+
Hjcke–x ekpc
!hlvrpclk fnnlpx ycgg je~f xsxpfach cargchepclkx `vf pl pjf rfxcxpfkhfek` ilycki ckngvfkhf ln xrfhceg ckpffxp ilvrx *ckhgv`cki fpcf` reps he`fx#+Ckpffxp ilvrx je~f' ck fnnfhp' jcdehmf` fgfafkpx ln rvogch rlgchs ek` pjfc
Pjesfr Hlkxvgpekhs
EOK ( >6 >0: 239 5?8
 
?
Afaofx ln pjf Rlgcpcheg OvfevXpek`cki Hlaacppff
Zc Dckrcki' Gc Mfuceki' Tjeki @fdceki' SvTjfkixjfki' Gcv Svkxjek' Yeki Ucxjekek` Tjeki Ielgc+
rfxcxpfkhf aemfx
cp alf `cnnchvgp pl hes lvp rlgcpcheg fnlax+ Hjcke–x xsxpfa ln ‗xlgchcpepclk ln e`~chf‑ rl~c`
fx e oehm `ll nl Xpepf Hlvkhcglx pl hlkpckvf plckngvfkhf pjf rlgchs rlhfxx ex pjfs ef fkpcpgf` pl ehhfxx pl hlknc`fkpceg `lhvafkpxenpf pjfc fpcfafkp+Pjf HHR Vk`f Zc Dckrcki
Zc Dckrcki–x xfgfhpclk ex HHR Ifkfeg Xfhfpes' afaof ln pjf Rlgcpovl Xpek`cki
Hlaacppff ek` errlckpafkp ex hjecaek ln pjf Hfkpeg Acgcpes Hlaacppff *HAH#yex `fhcxc~f+ Jf `lfx klp je~f pl yecppyl sfex pl exxvaf nvgg rlyf ex `c`Jv Dckpel+ Hjekifx ck
Hjcke–x
gfe`fxjcr ycgg of hlargfpf` ckAehj yjfk pjf Kepclkeg
Rflrgf–x Hlkifxx
hlk~fkfx ek`epcncfx pjf kfy xpepf gfe`fxjcr+
Nvpjf hjekifx ck Hjcke–
x gfe`fxjcr ycgg pemf rgehf l~f pjf kfzp `fhe`f+ PjfRlgcpovl Xpek`cki Hlaacppff ckhgv`fx nc~f rfxlkx yjl ycgg fpcf ck nc~f sfex+ Pjf`frvps ln pjf Rlgcpovl Xpek`cki Hlaacppff cx cpx xfhlk` slvkifxp afaof+Hjckfxf rlgcpcheg gfe`fx je~f fklalvx evpjlcps+ Kf~fpjfgfxx pjfs xcp ep pjf plrln e rlgcpcheg xsxpfa hlarcxf` ln nc~f gf~fgx ck yjchj rlgchs alafkpva cx `cnnvxf` excp cx cargfafkpf` `lykye`+ Yc`fxrfe` hlvrpclk egxl aemfx cp `cnnchvgp nl pjfHHR pl carlxf `cxhcrgckf lk cpx afaofx+ Pjcx fzehfoepfx pjf rlogfa ln pscki plhvpecg aexxc~f xpepf ckpf~fkpclk ck ovxckfxx fkpfrcxfx+Zc ockix pl lnnchf pjf gfiehs ln jcx f~lgvpclkes neacgs oehmilvk` ek` hglxf
exxlhcepclk ycpj pjf Rflrgf–x Gcofepclk Eas *RGE#+ Hlkxfuvfkpgs' Zc jex i
fepfevpjlcps pjek Jv Dckpel= klkfpjfgfxx Zc ycgg lrfepf ck e xsxpfa ln hlggfhpc~fgfe`fxjcr ek` ycgg je~f pl pemf pjf ~cfyx ln lpjf plr reps gfe`fx ckpl ehhlvkp+Rcaehs ln @lafxpch CxxvfxPjf HHR vk`f Zc Dckrcki ycgg ic~f plr rclcps pl e kvaof ln `lafxpch cxxvfxckhgv`cki nexp pehmcki fhlklach ilypj *nla 9& pl 3& l jcijf#' nckekhceg fnlaln xaegg ek` af`cva fkpfrcxfx' rlgcpcheg fnla' ek` `fegcki ycpj pjf rgvegctepclk
ln xlhcfps+ L~f jegn *65&# ln Hjcke–x rlrvgepclk kly gc~fx ck vo
ek efex' nlfzeargf+ Hjcke cx egxl fzrfcfkhcki pjf erc` fafifkhf ln e geif ac``gf hgexx ycpjjcijf f`vhepclk ek` Ckpfkfp xe~~s+ Pjff ef alf pjek pjcps acggclk pfpcesxpv`fkpx ck Hjcke' alf pjek `lvogf pjep ln pjf Vkcpf` Xpepfx+Ck e``cpclk' Hjcke nehfx xf~ff rlogfax fgepcki pl e geif aciekp rlrvgepclkycpjlvp fxc`fkhf rfacpx' e aemf` cxf ck pjf nfuvfkhs ek` xhlrf ln rvogchrlpfxp' fpjkch xfreepcxa ek` vkfxp ck Zckdceki' fgciclvx `cxxfkp ck Pcofp' ilyckifk~clkafkpeg `fie`epclk *f+i+ pjf gehm ln rlpeogf yepf ck klpjfk Hjcke#'vkfuveg `cxpcovpclk ln yfegpj ck xlhcfps' ek` ek eicki rlrvgepclk ek` gehm ln ekfnnfhpc~f rvogch yfgnef xsxpfa+
 
8
Pjf Hjckfxf Hlaavkcxp RepsPjfxf `lafxpch cxxvfx ycgg ily ck ckpfkxcps hlaref` pl pjf rexp nc~f sfex+Rfxxvfx nl hjekif ycgg of fzfpf` os afaofx ln pjf ifkfeg rvogch' fxrfhceggs pjfilycki ac``gf hgexx' ek` nla ycpjck pjf reps cpxfgn+ Jv Dckpel ck jcx frlp pl pjf5:pj HHR Hlkifxx c`fkpcncf` nlv pjfepx' pjf alxp ln carlpekp ln yjchj cx pjfilycki ier ofpyffk pjf HHR ek` pjf rflrgf+ Xlaf ekegsxpx eivf pjep fhlklachek` rlgcpcheg fnlax ycgg of geifgs f~fkp `c~fk ex gfe`fx fxrlk` pl rfxxvfxnla ofgly+Pjf HHR jex alf pjek :? acggclk afaofx' ln yjchj ?> acggclk yff fhvcpf` ck
pjf gexp `fhe`f enpf pjf ckpl`vhpclk ln pjf c`flglis ln ‗pjff frfxfkpx+‑ Aeks ln 
pjf kfy reps afaofx yff f`vhepf` eole` ek` fpvkf` pl ylm ck pjf rc~epfxfhpl+Pjff cx ckpfkeg `foepf ycpjck pjf HHR' fxrfhceggs cpx Aezcxp Xpv`cfx Ckxpcpvpf' eolvppjf fnnchehs ln c`flglis+ Hgexx xpviigf ek` fgcekhf lk pjf ylmfx ek` rfexekpx jexglki offk ek fxxfkpceg ckif`cfkp ln HHR c`flglis+ Pjf ylmcki hgexx jex ilyk pl862 acggclk+ Pjf ylmcki hgexx cx vk`filcki pekxnlaepclk ek` fliekctepclk4
 
Pjf ylmfx xjlvg` of pjf oexf ln HHR rlyf ovp kly pjfs ef vk`f hercpegcxpolxxfx+ Pjf ylmfx ef klp pjf feg lykfx ln pjf rl`vhpc~f nlhfx+
 
Pjf ylmcki hgexx cx carl~fcxjf` vk`f Hjcke–x fhlklach xsxpfa+
 
 
Pjf ylmcki hgexx jex glxp ckngvfkhf ck xlhcfps ek` ck pjf gfieg xsxpfa+
 
Pjf ylmcki hgexx jex ofhlaf yfemfkf` l~fegg+
Hjcke jex 922 acggclk rfexekp neafx+ Pjfc xcpvepclk aes of hjeehpfctf` os ‗nlvkl–x‑4 kl gek`' kl dlox' kl hercpeg ek` kl xlhceg xfhvcps+
Pjf HHR jex eppfarpf` pl fzrek` cpx hgexx oexf os e`acppcki rc~epf fkpfrfkfvx+Pyfkps!xcz acggclk kfy reps afaofx hlaf nla pjcx oehmilvk`+Ck xva' pjf pyl hgexxfx pjep je~f xf~f` ex pjf oexf ln HHR rlyf kly nehf aedl`cnnchvgpcfx+ Sfp pjf 5:
pj
HHR Hlkifxx fhlkncaf` pjep Aezcxa!Gfkckcxa cx pjf
c`flglicheg oexcx ln pjf reps+ Jv Dckpel–x lvpilcki frlp xpepf` pjep pjf alklrlgs
ln hfkpeg xpepf fkpfrcxfx ylvg` hlkpckvf pl of pjf aeckxpes ln pjf fhlklas+
Pjf kfy Kepclkeg Rflrgf–x Hlkifxx ycgg je~f alf rfexekp
afaofx pjek ck pjfrexp+ Cn pjf fnnlp pl fkgcxp pjf xvrrlp ln ylmfx ek` rfexekpx cx klp xvhhfxxnvg' pjf
HHR ycgg pvk pl pjf Rflrgf–x Gcofepclk Eas *RGE# nl xvrrlp pl rlpfhp pjf reps–x
rlyf oexf+ Cn pjf HHR ofhlafx alf fgcekp lk pjf RGE pjf reps ycgg je~f plhlkhf`f pl RGE `faek`x+Pjff ef ckpfkeg ekzcfpcfx ycpjck pjf HHR pjep cp ycgg of errlehjcki e gek`aem
 dvxp enpf Zc–x xfhlk` sfe pfa fk`x+ Ehhl`cki pl pjcx ~cfy' pjf Hlaavkcxp Reps ln 
pjf Xl~cfp Vkclk gexpf` ck rlyf nl xf~fkps!nlv sfex+ Pjf HHR jex offk ck rlyfnl lkgs xczps!pjff sfex+ Pjf uvfxpclk ofcki exmf` ycpjck pjf HHR cx yjfpjf Zc hekhlkxlgc`epf pjf xvrrlp oexf ln pjf HHR ek` xvhhfxxnvggs fzpfk` HHR vgf ofslk`xf~fkps!nlv sfex+Zc cx alf gcmfgs pjep Jv Dckpel pl e``fxx rlrvge icf~ekhfx os lrfkcki `ceglivfycpj pjf rflrgf ek` henpcki rlgchcfx `cfhpf` ep xpfrrcki vr veg `f~fglrafkp+Je`gckfx ycpjck pjf HHR' jlyf~f' ycgg rfxx nl e xplki gckf eieckxp eks

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