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2012 Year End Charlottesville Real Estate Nest Report

2012 Year End Charlottesville Real Estate Nest Report

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Published by Jonathan Kauffmann

The overall Charlottesville real estate market performed well in 2012. Total sales in the MSA increased from 2326 to 2676 in 2012, a significant increase of 15%. In addition, median prices edged upward by 2% to $249,000. On top of those positive numbers, inventory levels decreased and ,thus, months of inventory improved. Total year end inventory was 6% lower than in 2011 and months of inventory fell to 10.09 months, an improvement of 12% over 2011. The 2059 homes on the market in December 2012 represents the lowest levels since February 2006 when there were just 1891 homes for sale.

The overall Charlottesville real estate market performed well in 2012. Total sales in the MSA increased from 2326 to 2676 in 2012, a significant increase of 15%. In addition, median prices edged upward by 2% to $249,000. On top of those positive numbers, inventory levels decreased and ,thus, months of inventory improved. Total year end inventory was 6% lower than in 2011 and months of inventory fell to 10.09 months, an improvement of 12% over 2011. The 2059 homes on the market in December 2012 represents the lowest levels since February 2006 when there were just 1891 homes for sale.

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Published by: Jonathan Kauffmann on Jan 11, 2013
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NestRealty.com
1 of 9
2012 Market OverviewCharlottesville / Central Virginia Region
 
NestRealty.com
2 of 9
2012: A Pivot in a Positive Direction
We’ll be the first ones to admit that we were a little down on the real estate market over the last few years. How could you not be? Every time weturned around, prices were down, inventory was up, and buyers were scared to move forward on the purchase of their next home. While we didstart to see some positive trends in 2011 (not the least of which were the historically low interest rates), there’s a strong chance that we’ll lookback at 2012 as the year we really started to come out of this real estate mess we’ve been tangled in since late 2006.The overall Charlottesville real estate market performed well in 2012. Total sales in the MSA increased from 2326 to 2676 in 2012, a significantincrease of 15%. In addition, median prices edged upward by 2% to $249,000. On top of those positive numbers, inventory levels decreased and,thus, months of inventory improved. Total year end inventory was 6% lower than in 2011 and months of inventory fell to 10.09 months, animprovement of 12% over 2011.
The 2059 homes on the market in December 2012 represents the lowest levels since February 2006 whenthere were just 1891 homes for sale.
The nice part about the market improvements in 2012 are that the improvements are fairly consistent among most major indexes, areas, andsubmarkets. Take median prices as an example: MSA detached homes (+2%), overall Albemarle (+4%), Albemarle detached (+1%), overallCharlottesville (+2%), and Charlottesville detached (+3%) all saw modest gains in 2012. Inventory levels and months of inventory for each of thesesegments were also down (a positive sign) from 2011.If you’ve been following The Nest Report for the last few years, you’ve probably seen us reiterating one major point: the real estate market cannoteven begin to recover until inventory levels recede from their previous sky-high levels. So, even though we are starting to see modest medianprice gains, the reduction of inventory levels is the most welcome news. In fact,
the drop in inventory levels is most likely the main factorleading to the median price gains.
As you read through this report, you’ll see an almost unending list of positive news: median prices up, contracts written up, inventory levelsdown, days on market down...the list goes on.
But one word of caution: let’s not get too confident, too early.
There are still challenges thatthe Charlottesville MSA market must conquer. For example, as nice as it is to see inventory levels in certain market segments drop from 16months to 9 months, those levels are still relatively high as compared to levels as compared to the last 6 to 7 years. In addition, there are still alot of homeowners in the marketplace who are underwater. A 2% increase in median prices over the past year hardly makes up for the 10-20%drop we saw from the peak of the market. Lastly, we do anticipate that inventory levels may bump upward in 2013 as many home sellers jumpback in a real estate market that is exhibiting its first positive trends in five to six years. It will be interesting to track how much inventoryincreases and, if it does, how much the increased demand will be able to absorb those additional homes.In addition to anticipating more re-sales on the market, the recent increase in new developments will lead to more new home inventory in theCharlottesville marketplace. For the first time in years, developers are breaking ground on brand new developments. These new developmentsare bringing hundreds of home sites to the marketplace. New home sales have been strong for the last 24 months and we expect this trend tocontinue in 2013. Just as new home development and construction has come back strong, real estate investors are also back in the marketplace.The low interest rates, an improved economy, and higher consumer confidence is leading to an uptick in residential real estate investors in andaround Charlottesville.Overall, the health of the Charlottesville real estate market is improving...thanks in large part to a strong 2012. All signs are pointing to thatmomentum from 2012 continuing into 2013. There are still some good values in the marketplace. Combine that with low interest rates and weexpect sales to keep progressing on an upward trend line in 2013.So, we tip our hats to the 2012 real estate market to what we hope was the next step towards a more stable, long-term real estate market inCentral Virginia.
 
NestRealty.com
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The overall sales trend for the Charlottesville MSA continues to trend in a positive direction.
For the 6th straight quarter, total year-over-yearsales were up.
Q4 2012 sales were up 19% from Q4 2011 (from 624 to 524). On an annual basis, the overall MSA performed well in 2012.Median single family home prices increased 3.2% and total sales increased 15.1% as compared to 2011. In addition, inventory levels continued toslide downward: total inventory fell by 4.2% and months of inventory dropped by 4.7%.
Central Virginia/Charlottesville MSA Real Estate Market Snapshot
Attached homes and condominium sales were also strong in 2012. Total sales jumped by 15.3% (from 570 to 657). While the median price of attached and condos did fall by 1%, total inventory and months of inventory fell dramatically. Total units for sale at the end of 2012 as comparedto 2011 are 22.4% lower (342 in 2012 as compared to 441 at the end of 2011). In addition, months of inventory levels were also much lower at7.12 months - that’s a 41.9% reduction as compared to the 12.25 months at the end of 2011.
Overall, the health of the Charlottesville MSAreal estate market was vastly improved in 2012.
 
5 YEAR TREND
AverageList PriceAverageSale PriceMedianSale PricePrice perSquare FootAvg Dayson MarketTotalSalesTotalInventoryMonths of Inventory
2012$367,173 $341,653 $278,692 $135.00 108 2020 1396 8.89
Change
3.7% 1.7% 3.2% -2.9% -6.9% 15.1% -4.2% -4.7%2011$354,157 $335,818 $270,000 $139.00 116 1755 1457 9.33
Change
-5.1% -5.2% -3.6% -4.1% 4.5% -0.6% -10.9% -23.0%2010$373,189 $354,211 $280,000 $145.00 111 1765 1636 12.11
AverageList PriceAverageSale PriceMedianSale PricePrice perSquare FootAvg Dayson MarketTotalSalesTotalInventoryMonths of Inventory
2012$217,222 $210,865 $189,000 $140.00 111 657 342 7.12
Change
2.0% 2.4% -1.0% -0.7% 3.7% 15.3% -22.4% -41.9%2011$213,004 $205,825 $190,950 $141.00 107 570 441 12.25
Change
-8.8% -9.9% -10.2% -4.1% 0.0% -1.0% -5.8% 25.6%2010$233,436 $228,479 $212,750 $147.00 107 576 468 9.75
   A   t   t  a  c   h  e   d   /   C  o  n   d  o
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Number of Sales)MSA (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, and Nelson)
02004006008001,0001,2001,400Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 08Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 09Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 10Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 11Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 12
   S   i  n  g   l  e   F  a  m   i   l  y

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