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Japan: Back into Recession

Japan: Back into Recession

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Published by: Deloitte University Press on Jan 15, 2013
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1st Quarter 2013
Ira Kalis, DloiRsarc in Unid Sas,Dloi Srvics LP
was, i nothing else, a year o pronounced economic uncertainty or many countriesaround the world, and or most o them, this trend will linger into 2013. In Europe, a scalcrisis continues to kindle doubt about the survival o the euro, creating uncertainty that is casting ashadow on real economic perormance in the new year. Te United States may have already enteredrecessionary territory. Likewise, China, India, and Japan are treading uncertain economic watersand scrambling to establish or maintain economic growth.Tis rst-quarter edition o the
Global Economic Outlook
begins with Alexander Börsch’s assess-ment o the Eurozone, where uncertainty remains a recurring theme. Concerns about the uture o the shared currency are giving way to worries about the real economy, which may take their toll ongrowth prospects in the coming year.Next, Carl Steidtmann suggests that the United States, like Europe, is already in a recession. Heoers his rationale or a negative GDP orecast that may pull the United States into recessionary ter-ritory in early 2013. He suggests that the depth and duration o this recession will dier accordingto the speed o the resolution.My assessment o Chinas economic outlook is comparatively optimistic. Chinese economicgrowth is accelerating aer slowing down or most o 2012. Improving exports, industrial produc-tion, retail sales growth, and declining consumer price ination suggest that China is, in act, on themend. However, the country will need to navigate signicant challenges, including ebbing oreigndirect investment, a transition in political leadership, and the country’s ongoing need to shi away 
Global EconomicOutlookQ1 2013
rom export-led growth in avor o its consumer-driven counterpart, all o whichraise questions about Chinas ability to stay its course.Next, my outlook or Japan, entitled “Back into Recession,” suggests thatJapan did not end 2012 on the optimistic note it enjoyed a year ago. Te country’sexports have been hampered by a recession in Europe, declining automobile sales,waning government spending, aggressive monetary policy that hasn’t oset thecountry’s ormidable deationary pressures, and a high-valued yen that continuesto compromise the competitiveness o Japanese exports.Finally, Pralhad Burli writes that growth in India may improve over the nexttwo quarters aer experiencing a period o deceleration. Economic challenges, including a bur-geoning scal decit, low investments, elevated ination, and high interest rates are looming overIndia’s outlook.
Dr. Ira KalishDirector o Global EconomicsDeloitte Research
Global Economic Outlook 
published quarterly byDeloitte ResearchEditor-in-chief 
Ira Kalish
Managing editor
Ryan Alvanos
 Pralhad BurliAlexander BörschCarl SteidtmannIan Stewart
Editorial address
350 South Grand StreetLos Angeles, CA 90013Tel: +1 213 688 4765ikalish@deloitte.com

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