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2013-01-18_CPI_preview.pdf

2013-01-18_CPI_preview.pdf

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Published by: Belinda Winkelman on Jan 17, 2013
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18 January 2013
CPI preview - December quarter 2012
 
¾
We expect the December quarter CPI release (due 23 January) to confirm that inflationarypressures remained moderate in the final months of 2012.
¾
We expect a core inflation rate of 0.7% (2.4% through the year; including the impact ofcarbon), which is unchanged from the September quarter outcome and well within theRBA’s comfortable range. Headline CPI inflation is expected to be softer, at 0.4% (2.4%through the year), largely reflecting weakness in fruit & vegetable prices. Petrol will berelatively neutral.
¾
The continued strength of the Australian dollar together with a weakening economy andprice discounting means that near term inflation remains moderate. Consistent with thoseforces NAB business survey data also show subdued price pressures at end 2012.
¾
While a February rate cut will be discussed at the next board meeting, they already havedone a lot. A low core CPI would probably be needed. We see the tipping point at 0.6%or lower (or 0.5% ex carbon). Hence we still see a March cut as more likely but it will be aclose run thing.
¾
Looking further ahead, the weaker activity outlook for the domestic economy is expectedto help contain inflation to below 3%, even when the impact of carbon pricing is taken intoaccount. That will allow the RBA to focus more on cutting to help non mining sectors ofthe economy.
¾
With the unemployment rate expected to rise to near 5¾% by mid year, we still see theneed for three 25 bps cuts, which we have tentatively pencilled in for March, May andAugust.
CPI Forecasts
 
Jun-12Sep-12Dec-12 (f)20112012 (f)2013 (f)2014 (f)Headline CPI0.51.40.43.02.42.93.1Core CPI (inc carbon tax)*0.60.70.72.72.42.62.9Quarterly % change
Year to December quarter % change 
* Core CPI is the average of trimmed mean and weighted median CPI 
 
Underlying/core inflation
1
Core CPI vs. models
Quarterly0.00.20.40.60.81.01.220052007200920112013
%
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.2
%
* Includes impact of carbon pricingSources: ABS; NAB; RBA
Forecasts
Average of modelsActual & forecast*
 
NAB’s models of underlying or core inflation are based on the size of the output gap, labour costsgrowth, productivity growth, currency movements, fuel prices and error correction mechanisms. Inaddition to our own models, we also monitor a model based on published RBA research, based
1
The RBA targets an underlying rate of inflation, which is measured using the ‘trimmed mean’ and the ‘weightedmedian’ inflation rates. Both of these series are used by the RBA to assess the underlying rate of inflation in theeconomy. They do not represent an unchanging sub-group of goods and services. Trimmed mean inflation is definedas the average rate of inflation after ‘trimming’ away 15% of price changes at both ends of the distribution, whileweighted median inflation is the rate of change in the item in the middle of the distribution.
 
principally on unemployment and import prices. The chart shows the fit of the average of NABand RBA models is reasonably close. At least they seem to explain the core drivers of underlyinginflation. The reason why our forecast for the December (and March 2013) quarters aresomewhat higher than predicted by the models (see the chart above), is our judgement of whatthe indirect impact of the carbon tax might imply.There is, however, evidence from the
NAB Quarterly Business Survey 
that retail inflation remainseven more subdued - pointing to core inflation of around 0.6% in the December quarter (seeGraph below). Retail margins appear to have remained tight, while official ABS data suggest thatwage inflation drifted down over the September quarter. The annual growth rate of the wage priceindex (including bonuses) of 3.7% in the September quarter is well below levels three yearsearlier, when inflation was seen as a problem.
Core CPI & NAB retail prices
Quarterly percentage change-0.20.00.20.40.60.8200220042006200820102012%0.20.40.60.81.01.2%NAB retail prices (LHS)Core CPI (RHS)
Sources: ABS; NAB; RBA
 
The possibility of a lower than expected core CPI outcome, as implied from the Survey, showsthat a February cut could be a close run thing and certainly will be discussed at the Februaryboard meeting. Our judgment is that the tipping point for a cut in February is probably around the0.6% mark in core terms – which could be alternatively interpreted as 0.5% ex carbon. Both NABand the RBA are expecting contributions from carbon of around 0.1% per quarter over theDecember / March quarters (or around ½% over the financial year).However as noted above, the RBA has cut in two out of the last three meetings and will probablyfeel more comfortable sitting and watching if the core inflation outcome is around 0.7% - as weexpect. In many ways we may be about to see a rerun of the November 2012 meeting outcome – where with hindsight the RBA appeared to be a touch concerned by a higher than (market)expected inflation outcome (albeit, like now, one in line with model based expectations).
Headline inflation
Headline CPI inflation is expected to have been somewhat softer than the underlying rate in theDecember quarter. This largely reflects the weakness in fruit & vegetable prices, which areexpected to have fallen quite significantly through the December quarter. We anticipate headlineinflation to slow to 0.4% (2.4% through the year).
Other specific factors impacting the December quarter headline CPI outcome
¾
 
Housing costs
growth is likely to have softened from its robust pace in the Septemberquarter, when utilities prices (3.6% of spending) rose by a considerable 12.2%, largelyreflecting the large, direct, first-round impact of carbon pricing. Indirect effects in theDecember quarter are likely to be less pronounced. Preliminary results from the
NAB Residential Property Survey 
suggest a fairly soft 0.4% rise in national housing rents in theDecember quarter, while the
NAB Quarterly Business Survey 
also showed only modestgrowth in construction costs and transport & utilities prices. Taken together, it appears thathousing cost inflation is unlikely to have provided much of a boost to overall inflation in theDecember quarter.
¾
 
Fruit & vegetable
prices (3.0% of spending) are estimated to have fallen back sharply overthe December quarter, down by between 10-15% (not seasonally adjusted), unwinding asolid rise (10.2%) in the September quarter.
2
 
¾
 
Transportation costs
appear to have risen modestly over the December quarter, excludingseasonality. Automotive fuel prices at the pump (3.6% of household spending) are estimatedto have increased by between 1-1½% in the quarter, partly unwinding a decline of 3.9% inpetrol prices in the September quarter.
¾
The
Australian dollar
remained strong in the final quarter of 2012, easing only marginallyover the quarter in trade weighted terms. This is likely to have kept import price pressuresfairly subdued. Having said that, currency changes do take some time to flow through toprices, so it is likely that we are still seeing the deflationary impacts of currency appreciationover the past year or so.
For more information contact:
Alan OsterGroup Chief Economist03 8634 2927(Mobile 0414 444 652)Rob BrookerHead of Australian Economics andCommodities03 86341663Rob HendersonChief Economist Markets – Australia02 9237 1836
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