Demographics
Future demographic changes will alter the face of healthcare. The U.S. Census Bureau in March 2004 predicted that, between 2010 and 2020, the U.S. population aged 65 or olderwill increase by 14,388,000 persons, while the number of 20-to 64-year-olds will grow by 6,830,000.
In addition, provid-ing care to a more culturally diverse population will chal-lenge traditional health care delivery mechanisms. Projectedpopulation shifts from 2010 to 2020 include fewer non-Hispanic whites (decreasing from 65.1% to 61.3% of the U.S.population) and increases in all other groups.
Thus, themajor demographic shifts are for an older and more diversesociety.
Health Care Quality
Improving the quality of health care will continue to be anational priority. Consumers will continue to demand ac-countability from providers. For example, CMS’s HomeHealth Compare Web site indicates differences in outcomesamong care providers in different health care facilities.
Efforts to use Medicare, its Quality Improvement Organiza-tions (QIOs), and its demonstration projects to tie paymentto improved quality for beneficiaries will continue. Many believe that Medicare can be a catalyst for measuring andimproving health care quality across the country, withinformation technology facilitating quality measurementand enhancement. MedPAC’s recommendation of budgetneutral pay for performance programs isa step towardrewarding providers who improve quality.
Cost of Delivering Health Care
Persistent health care problems include: inequities in thecost of care, practice variations, less than ideal capacity toprovide care, duplication of efforts, and unequal access tocare. The total costs of health care are currently a burden toindividual patients and to society as a whole. Current costswere estimated at $1.7 trillion by Centers for Medicare andMedicaid Services.
In 2004, 15.6% of the U.S. populationwas uninsured.
As the cost of health care continues toincrease, the numbers of uninsured will likely increase aswell. The need for nurses will intensify, with some states likeOhio and California projected to have huge demands formore nurses, ranging from an anticipated shortage of 32,000in Ohio to 122,000 in California by 2020.
Health Care Informatics
Ongoing technological developments will influence healthcare delivery. Experts in nursing discussed anticipated im-pacts of worldwide changes in hardware (such as greateruse of laptops and PDAs), software (such as computerizeddecision support software, CDSS), and other technologiesused by nurses.
Bioinformatics, including computa-tional biology and biotechnology, will evolve to supportnew developments in the genetic, genomic, proteomic,metabolomic, and comparative translational sciences.
More nurses will need to be trained in the use of biomedicalinformatics and computational biology.
Genetic Discoveries
Advancing knowledge of genes, genomes, and proteomeswill certainly influence future health care at all levels:prevention of disease, diagnosis of disease, and personalizedtreatment of individuals’ diseases. New models must inte-grate biomolecular information into the electronic healthrecords used by caregivers and patients. Personal healthrecords (PHRs) replete with patients’ self-provided informa-tion, such as family histories, will inform predictions ofrisks, selections of cures, prevention ofadverse events, andoptimizing responses to treatments.
Integration ofgenomic information into health care will require dramaticchanges that create new, robust informatics infrastructures.
Threats to Society
Two major threats to society include bioterrorism andinfectious disease pandemics. Events following 9/11/2001 have increased the need for an information infra-structure for disease-outbreak-related communicationand detection. The Centers for Disease Control and Pre-vention (CDC) proposed information infrastructure, Pub-lic Health Information Network (PHIN), recommendsstandards for interoperability at the local, state, andnational level.
The CDC is also developing the NationalElectronic Disease Surveillance System (NEDSS) to detectoutbreaks.
The Agency for Healthcare Research andQuality funds new informatics solutions, including deci-sion support systems, syndromic surveillance systems,Regional Health Information Organizations (RHIOs), andclinician response networks.
The Health Resources andServices Administration (HRSA) has promoted informat-ics educational solutions.
Additional resources to ad-dress threats to society have recently been described.
Informatics applications for biodefense can be utilized andexpanded at the state and local levels to monitor andrespond to naturally occurring outbreaks, such as pandemicinfluenza.
In related developments, syndromic surveil-lance systems are being linked to convey electronic healthdata from emergency rooms to regional laboratories and theCDC.
Within society, health care challenges will shift from acuteconditions, such as infections, to more chronic health condi-tions related to cardiovascular diseases, cancer, behavioraldisorders, and lung disease. Much of health care delivery in2020 will be ambulatory and community based for thesechronic health conditions.
Resources to Align Informatics Locally andNationally
Since passage of the Health Insurance Portability and Ac-countability Act in 1996, actions by the U.S. Congress, thefederal government, and its advisory bodies, especially theNational Committee on Vital and Health Statistics(NCVHS), have exerted a steadily increasing influence onhealth care informatics. The provisions of the MedicareModernization Act of 2003 and the 2004 Presidential ap-pointment of a National Coordinator for Health InformationTechnology continued this trend. Previously described CDCand AHRQ initiatives, such as PHIN and RHIOs, are repre-sentative of new government-funded informatics solutions.In 2005, the Hurricane Katrina–related disaster highlightedthe need for an information infrastructure for communica-tion and the value of electronic health records in ensuringcontinuity of care for displaced populations. Recent efforts by the Secretary of Health and Human Services and theOffice of the National Coordinator to promote developmentof the National Health Information Network and to establish
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MCCORMICK et al.,
Guideposts to the Future
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