Pooh-Bah Post: Loose Aggressive Play

#5659562 - 05/02/06 12:20 AM

(forgive spelling mistakes, I am wearing a cast on one hand... stupid football) Note: This applies to 6max far more than FR. It applies somewhat to being in MP-LP in FR. I don't know about you guys, but everytime I see a flop and there are chips in the pot, I want them. I don't care if there are 20bb's in pf or 2bb.. I want them in my stack. Aggression wins money, period. Sure, playing passively against a maniac is right sometimes... but I want to be that guy people play passively against. It makes life easier for me, because I decide when the money goes in and when it doesn't. So, first let's deal with pf. I raise a lot pf (in 6max about 25% of my hands, maybe more haha). I do this because I am aiming to win the pot, and I'd like some money in there to win. Plus, raising gives me the ability to take down the pot when we both have nothing on the flop. caveat- Know when not to c-bet. This depends on two factors very heavily- Board Texture and Number of Villains. I might c-bet into 3 weak opponents if the flop was 842r. I'd check often vs. 2 opponents if it was K87 two-tone and I held AQ. Knowing when to/when not to c-bet will help your winrate a lot. Another reason I'm consantly raising and stabbing is that it helps me get paid off when I hit the flop hard. However, I'm not convinced it helps that much in a world where villains think about their own cards and not yours. However, villains will play back eventually. It's important to know what to do-and this means knowing your villain. Lets say I've been hammering on a villain all game, stealing blinds with any A, any K, and most suited Q's. I open from the CO with A T . Villain calls in the BB. The flop comes down T 8 3 Villain checks, I lead for the pot ( 9 bb), Villain c/r for 32bb. Many people advocate folding here. With no image and playing a TAG game, folding may be the correct play here. But, as it stands, it may not. What hand would villain play like this? Very few that beat you from the average villain!! Do you think your average SSNL player c/r a set/2pair on the flop, into a pf raiser?? No! Rarely. I am more frightened if I lead and am smoothcalled. I call the c/r and play poker on the next two streets, thinking pot control on the turn, and value on the river. You will be amazed how many times you are shown J 8 here. The point is this: when people are willing to play back at you with less, you can value your average hands higher. How much higher is up to you--and up to your read of a villain. I try to avoid situations like the one above without a read, or when I first sit down. important caveat--> when you are raised on the turn... your top pair is still not good, even considering the previous statement. Lastly, know when to go TAG. Playing LAG gets a table worked up. If people start calling pf raises en masse, or reraising you... its time to stop raising 56s UTG and look for value from your big pairs. You'll still get the action, and now you always have the cards. Playing tight pf is rarely, if ever, wrong. I know a lot of you are interested in loosening up your game, I hope this was

somewhat of a brief outline. It's not as long as Pokey's... but then again, Pokey can't count to 1600. So heres a brief outline 1) Attack, pf and the flop. Put money in the pot, scoop it to your side. 2) Know when to c-bet and when not to. 3) Be strong when you connect- your opponents are likely to play back with less than you're used to. 4) Read the table so you know when to slow down and tighten up. One more quick thing to highlight- As you raise more pf and c-bet the flop constantly, people start floating you. Its not hard to notice... often the answer for me is double barrel bluffing. It is a powerful weapon... use it against the right opponents. Remember- Only an idiot bluffs a man he knows will call him!! Disclaimer- the word is still out as to whether or not I'm good at poker. So don't take any of this too seriously.

Possible Pooh-bah? - The Basics of Thinking in Terms of Ranges

#10397012 - 05/16/07 02:39 PM

This concept is relatively basic, and I am sure many of you already think in terms of ranges. There are more advanced articles and posts out there based on this concept (see Gbucks, ftw), but I haven't really seen anything that explains the application of hand ranges in a simplistic fashion. Everything I will refer to in this should actually be thought about AT THE TABLE. It is my belief that many posters perform post-analysis using hand ranges but do not think about them while actually making decisions at the table. The easiest way to introduce using hand ranges is to use an example. In this example, we can assume that villain is not thinking about what we hold, so he is a first level thinker. These types of opponents are still very common at SSNL, and they are the types we should be seeking out. 1/2NL (6max) - $200 eff stacks Villain is 35/8/0.9 - Loose-passive calling station Pre-flop: Villain open-limps from MP. It folds to hero on the button with J $10, folds to villain who calls $8.

who raises to

It is time to start thinking about villain's range of hands. At this point, it is very wide, but we can narrow it down a bit. It is highly unlikely that he has a premium hand or complete trash like 72o. I would typically estimate his range as 22-99, Axs, KJ-KT, KJ-K9s, QJ-QT, QJ-Q9s, and all suited connectors and one-gappers JTs and below. Flop ($23): 6 6 7 Villain checks, hero bets $17, villain calls Now we can narrow his range down significantly. From this point, I will estimate in the fashion that I will at the table which is pretty general. I would assume villain has any pp 22-99, a straight draw (45, 89, 8T,9T), trip 6s (56, 68, etc), a full

house, or any flush draw in his preflop range. Turn ($57): 6 6 Villain checks... 7 2

Against his range, we have to bet for both value and protection. This type of villain is very likely to take another card with a draw or a PP. He will also call or raise with the few hands that already have us beat, but overall we have great equity against his holding range and his calling range. Hero bets $42, villain calls River ($141): 6 Villain checks... 6 7 2 T

Now we only need to think about his calling range. He is most likely not calling 3 barrels with 22-55, diamond draws, or most of his straight draws. He also probably doesn't have a full house after checking all 3 streets. His calling range is most likely: 88-99, any draw that hit 2pair on the river (8T, 9T, JTs, etc), any 7, 666, and 89 for the straight. We are ahead of that range, meaning if he calls a certain bet size with the entire range, we win the pot >50% of the time. We can assume he never folds a better hand or C/R bluffs us. Hero bets $75, villain's action is irrelevant as results don't matter if our ranges are accurate. Now this can get infinitely more complicated than the example above. The next step is to realize how our image can affect the villain's range. For example, if we are 3-betting very light, and villain is observant, we have to widen villain's 3-bet calling range because we can assume that villain has assigned us a wide 3-betting range (our perceived range). This also becomes much more complicated against villains that semi-bluff, bluff C/R the river, etc. This can go on forever, but the basic idea is outlined above. The thing to take away from this post is that you should be doing this at the table! With practice, this kind of thinking becomes automatic, and you will soon start adjusting both your perceived range and villain's range dynamically throughout hands. You cannot get there if you don't start doing this in the most basic situations, though. I hope this post is helpful to some of you out there in 2p2 land. Some thoughts on continuation bet sizing (long)
#10434758 - 05/19/07 01:37 AM

Most 2+2ers are familiar with the 4xBB + BB/limper preflop betsizing methodology, but what about post flop? Do we always bet the pot? Min bet? Shove? On one hand, if you always bet too much, youre going to lose the most when your opponent calls with a hand thats better than yours. On the other hand, when you always bet too little, youre offering your opponent correct pot odds to continue with drawing hands and suck out on you. Obviously, we want our bet sizes to encourage our opponents to make mistakes against us; Big mistakes; Mistakes that maximize our expectation. So how much do we bet? What factors should we consider before sizing our bets? In this article I plan on discussing some of the more common methodologies regarding sizing your continuation bets and some of the advantages and disadvantages that accompany the various tactics. Note that this article will not

cover the ifs and whens to continuation bet, or what conditions make a bet +EV or EV, types of villains or flops to cbet, etc; Ill leave that for another time. Rather, Id like to focus explicitly on bet sizing strategies and the rationales behind why we may find it optimal to utilize a specific approach over another. Its also worth noting that I dont consider any one strategy to be any more or less favorable than any other; This write-up is simply an attempt to get people thinking as to why theyre betting a precise amount and the implications related with the size of their bets in different situations. Methodology #1: Sizing your bets based on the strength of your hand Seems straightforward enough; When you have a strong hand, you want to maximize your winnings and play a big pot, and when you have a weak hand, you want to minimize your losses and play a small pot. So you bet as the smallest amount your opponents will let you get away with when youre bluffing, and the largest amount you think your opponents will call when you have a strong hand. On the one hand, risking a large amount just seems silly when you can bet smaller and achieve the same result; On the flip side, youre losing a ton of value when you make a small bet when your opponent would have called a much larger bet. Theoretically, this approach would be almost flawless and poker would be much easier if our bets somehow didnt represent the actual strength of our hand. The obvious drawback to using this tactic is that you become very exploitable to observant opponents, as theyll soon realize that your bet sizing represents the exact strength of your hand. A solid villain will correctly fold his marginal holding facing your pot sized bet, and will interpret your smaller bets as weakness and raise you off your hand, or float with the intention of taking the pot away it away on a later street. By telegraphing the strength of your hand with the size of your bet, youre allowing your opponents to play perfectly against you, and youll wonder why you always get raised when you have nothing and always get folds when you flop the nuts. Works best against: Weaker villains, villains who call preflop raises to play fit or fold, villains who dont show aggression against weak bets without a hand. Disadvantages: Against good/observant villains you lose action on your big hands, and have pots stolen from you when you show weakness with small(er) bets. Lack of balance.

Methodology #2: Vary your bet sizing based on the texture of the board The general idea being to vary your bet sizing based on the texture of the board(duh) bigger bets on more coordinated boards and smaller bets on less coordinated or dry boards. Since the texture of the flop impacts the shape of the hand distributions, that is, hands that the board hits are much greater on coordinated boards than on dry boards, we make our bets larger on drawy boards and smaller on dry boards Since dry boards miss most hands, we can bet a smaller amount (~ to 2/3rds of the pot) that will often achieve the same result as a larger bet with less risk. On draw heavy boards that hit a wide range of hands, we can make larger bets (~2/3rds to the full size of the pot) to deny drawing hands proper odds to continue that a smaller bet may not have. This strategy is very advantageous against the type of villain who will raise smaller continuation bets with drawing hands sensing weakness, but is more liable to flat call a larger bet sensing strength. After all, the semi-bluff can difficult to defend against with marginal one pair type hands, and wed much prefer our opponents to play passively against us. Also, when we make large bets on drawy boards with strong hands, were anticipating getting a lot of money in the middle before the river when

many drawing hands in our opponents range become worthless. It is also worth mentioning that by using a bet size methodology that advocates using consistent bet sizes relative to the texture of the board and not your hole cards, you effectively disguise your hand to your opponents. Lets look at 3 examples: a dry board, a somewhat coordinated board, and a very coordinated board, and some bet sizes we may decide to fire into each pot. Example 1: a dry board Hero (BTN): $100 SB: $100 Preflop: Hero is dealt X, Y (6 Players) 4 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.5, BB folds Flop: ($9) A 2 8 (2 Players) SB checks, Hero bets $5.50 Example 2: a middling drawy board Hero (BTN): $100 SB: $100 Preflop: Hero is dealt X, Y (6 Players) 4 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.5, BB folds Flop: ($9) 8 4 9 (2 Players) SB checks, Hero bets $7 Example 3: a very drawy board Hero (BTN): $100 SB: $100 Preflop: Hero is dealt X, Y (6 Players) 4 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.5, BB folds Flop: ($9) 9 Q J (2 Players) SB checks, Hero bets $8 Works best against: all villains. Disadvantages: Small increase in losses with weaker hands/bluffs from balancing bet sizing with stronger hands and vice-versa.

Methodology #3: Adjusting your bet sizing based on the depth of the stacks relative to the size of the pot Without divulging into too much theory, stack sizes can help us extrapolate an optimal percentage of the pot to bet. The whole idea of geometric growth (credit The Mathematics of Poker) is essentially betting a consistent percentage of the pot on each street to get our effective stack all in comfortably by the river, a concept critical to success in NLHE. It should seem obvious that when we flop a monster, we want to get as much money as possible in the middle to maximize our winnings. One of the most important aspects of stack sizes in NLHE is how they affect implied odds. When we adjust our bet sizing based on the effective stack sizes, we can

reduce our opponents implied odds to call bets on early streets with inferior hands in hopes of drawing to a better hand. Also, if we assume 100BB effective stacks, it does make a lot of sense why we would prefer to bet a smaller percentage of the pot when the pot is large, and a larger percentage of the pot when the pot is small, both from a practical and mathematical standpoint. A really really basic example: Hero (BTN): $121 SB: $200 Preflop: Hero is dealt X, Y (6 Players) 4 folds, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.5, BB folds In this example, the pot is $9 and the effective stack sizes are $117 (13 times the size of the pot), so betting 100% of the pot on all three streets should get our stack all in by the river. Flop: ($9) 8 5 J (2 Players) SB checks, Hero bets $9, SB calls. Turn: ($27) 3 (2 Players) SB checks, Hero bets $27, SB calls. River: ($81) Q (2 Players) SB checks, Hero bets $81 and is all-in Lastly, I should point out that ponicaraux made a cool write-up entitled Get it in where he mentions similar concepts. Works best against: all villains. Disadvantages: Small increase in losses with weaker hands/bluffs from balancing bet sizing with stronger hands. Not always optimal/feasible with deeper stacks.

Methodology #4: Always bet the pot Many UB/FTers religiously use the bet pot button to size their bets. By making the same sized bets relative to the size of the pot, you again completely disguise your hand to your opponents. Against weaker/passive players, always betting the pot seems optimal because you build bigger pots when youre the aggressor, and you can set yourself up for larger bets on later streets with strong hands. Weaktight players will give up easier against you knowing theyll be facing large pot sized bets on every street. The drawback of this approach is that consistently building large pots results in very high variance, especially for a LAG who is playing a high number of marginal holdings. Since the pots are bigger, you will often find yourself facing difficult situations with medium strength hands, as building big pots against aggressive opponents who will check-raise with air and draws and try to push you off your hand can get expensive. Also, playing big pots regardless of hand strength reduces your ability to utilize pot control, as every pot you play in as the aggressor will be of the same size (number of opponents is relevant here). Lastly, by always betting pot youre risking a lot to win a little when youre bluffing. Works best against: all villains

Disadvantages: Higher variance; Small increase in losses with weaker hands/bluffs from balancing bet sizing with stronger hands.

Methodology #5: Always bet x% of the pot, where x is some fixed predefined number Ill refer to this as the multitabelers theorem because many 2+2ers use a bet pot script to handle their bet sizing. They usually have it set up to bet some arbitrary percentage based on the current size of the pot (often in the neighborhood of 60% to 100% depending on preference). As with the previous methodology, it can be very difficult/impossible for opponents to deduce the strength of your hand if youre always making the same size bet whether youve hit the flop or not. With a smaller continuation bet size than the bet pot advocacy, you can take a stab at more pots while risking a smaller amount of chips. Most of the same disadvantages associated with the aforementioned bet pot methodology are apparent in this theorem. Works best against: all villains. Disadvantages: Small increase in losses with weaker hands/bluffs from balancing bet sizing with stronger hands and vice-versa.

Methodology #6: Overbetting the pot Making a large overbet doesnt have to work all that often for it to be a profitable play. Some opponents will interpret your overbet as weakness or a bluff and call down with a marginal hand. Using this strategy extracts maximum value from calling stations who wont fold with any piece of the board, and the so called chasers who wont fold any kind of draw on any street. You can extract a large amount of chips before the river when missed draws become worthless and induce river bluffs from villains who have missed their draws and find themselves pot committed. Ive had some success using this strategy after losing a large pot when my opponents perceive me to be on tilt, or in blind battles where opponents always think an aggressive player is FOS and trying to buy the pot. Works best against: Weak players, calling stations, chasers, villains who dont like to fold, villains who like to make hero calls and pick off bluffs. Disadvantages: Bigger bets may lose action when a smaller bet would not have. Balancing overbetting strong made hands with weaker hands/bluffs can be difficult and/or suboptimal.

Methodology #7: Adjust your bet sizing on the objective youre trying to achieve -- credit Ray Zee, soah and a few other HSNL/MSNL 2+2ers The idea being to adjust your bets to manipulate your opponents into playing not only the pot size of your choosing, but the actions you may want your opponents to take against you. Sometimes you want to bet smaller when OOP to price yourself into seeing cheap cards, or to pick up the pot with minimal risk, or to induce a raise; Or bet larger to force your opponents to fold, or at the very least force them into a difficult decision as to whether or not they should continue with the hand. As an example, we might choose to make smaller pot bets when you want action or want to induce a raise, and bet the pot when you dont want action or want to discourage opponents from making plays or calling down lightly.

The disadvantage of any complex bet sizing methodology is that our opponents may or may not construe the information we had hoped to associate with our bet sizes as we have intended. Say for example, we make a bet of size A because we want our opponent to take action X; In response our opponent may instead decide to take action Y because they interpret our bet of size A much differently than a bet of size B, despite the fact that we anticipated this opponent to be much less likely to take action Y over action X if we made a bet of value A instead of value B. Still with me? OK, enough theory mumbo jumbo, lets look at a really simple example where we might be able to manipulate our opponents into taking specific actions against us by varying our bet sizes. Hand 1: Hero (UTG): $100 BTN: $100 Preflop: Hero is dealt T , T (6 Players) Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, BTN calls $4, 2 folds Flop: ($9.50) 8 3 Hero bets $5.50 A (2 Players)

Well play the role of hero, a 18/14 thinking TAG who uses a highly varied bet sizing methodology. We open UTG open get called by the 20/10 button. In our short history, we view the button as an aggressive villain who is capable of making a move. With a dry Ace high flop, we decide to make slightly over half pot size continuation bet expecting the button to fold all worst hands and call or raise all better hands. Flop: ($9.50) 8 3 A (2 Players) Hero bets $5.50, BTN raises $20 Easy fold right? Well, maybe. Could the button have interpreted our ~ pot sized bet as weakness? Would a 2/3rds or near pot sized bet be more sufficient in representing a strong hand? Would the button be less likely to make a play facing a larger bet? In the actual hand hero folded, the on collected the pot and exposed his hole cards, J Q . So what have learned from this hand? The actions taken by this particular villain may or may not have been prejudiced by the size of our bet. Maybe the button was planning on making a play regardless of our bet size, and maybe he wasnt. Nevertheless, it is something to keep in mind. On to the next meeting Hand 2: (same villain) Hero (UTG): $100 BTN: $100 Preflop: Hero is dealt A , Q (6 Players) Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, BTN calls $4, 2 folds Flop: ($9.50) 5 Hero bets $8 K T (2 Players)

In this hand, we have a read that this villain may have interpreted our smaller continuation bet as weakness, so we adjust by making a larger bet with a hand that

we dont necessarily want action with. Flop: ($9.50) 5 K T (2 Players) Hero bets $8, BTN folds. The button folds and hero collects the pot. We now have a stronger suspicion that this villain may perceive our smaller continuation bets as weakness and larger continuation bets as strength, and we intend to exploit our read by manipulating our opponent into making a mistake. Now again, this may or may not be the case; Maybe the button decided to fold in this hand given he recently made a play against us, or maybe he had a timing tell and felt we were stronger in this hand than in the previous one. However, in a game with no absolutes, we still plan on experimenting with our newly gained information in an effort to size our bets to incite specific responses against this opponent in the future. Hand 3: (same villain) Hero (UTG): $100 BTN: $100 Preflop: Hero is dealt 7 , 7 (6 Players) Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, BTN calls $4, 2 folds Flop: ($9.50) 7 J Hero bets $5.50 2 (2 Players)

Using previous history and our read on villain, we can now make the same small continuation bet we made back in hand 1 in an attempt to induce either a call from a weak hand or a bluff raise. Flop: ($9.50) 7 J 2 (2 Players) Hero bets $5.50, BTN raises $20, Hero calls $14.50. Turn: ($49.50) K (2 Players) Hero checks, BTN bets $38, Hero raises all-in, BTN calls all-in. Ship it. Button mucks K T and hero collects the pot.

Now obviously, our static strategy wont work forever on this particular villain, so well need to make continuous adjustments. The next time we flop a strong hand we might make a larger bet, or make a smaller bet when were bluffing. The idea is to adjust better than your opponent does, and yet still be able to manipulate them into doing what you want them to do. Do note, that with this simple illustration weve only begun to scratch the surface in realizing how powerful a highly varied bet sizing methodology can be. Were not necessarily always trying to deceive our opponents with our bet sizes, but rather, betting an amount that maximizes our expectation which is the size of our opponents possible mistake times the chance he will make that mistake (Sklansky, Miller; NLHETAP; p57). Works bets against: villains who we have a very good read on. Disadvantages: By varying our bet sizes based on a specific set of objectives, we may face difficult decisions on later streets as opponents reactions may or may not be influenced by the size of our bets. Requires constant adaptation.

There are some things I havent covered that are worth noting, such as adjusting bet sizing based on your opponents estimated hand ranges, adjusting your bet sizing based on position, number of opponents, your image, history, etc; Feel free to add any thoughts/criticisms. Pooh-Bah Post: Playing Junk From Late Position
#8698320 - 01/08/07 02:29 AM

My current VPIP/PFR stats: UTG: 11/11. MP: 11/11. CO: 22/20. BTN: 30/27. My attempt to steal blinds percentage: 31. The last five numbers used to be even higher when I was playing a higher variance style; Im sure many good players can provide numbers higher than these. Note how sharply the numbers jump from MP to CO, and from CO to BTN. Winning players generally make most of their money from late position (cutoff and button). From late position, Ill often raise with anything suited, anything connected, and if conditions are right, any two cards. Why Do It? In order of importance: 1. To steal the blinds: Theres little reason for me to elaborate much on this; Pokey covered all the details (and more) in his thread. The gist of it is that stealing blinds = $$$; if you check PokerTracker, youll see that your PTBB/100 skyrockets when you attempt to steal the blinds. If you want to steal the blinds 25, 30, 35 percent of the time that youre on the button, you have to be willing to raise 25, 30, 35 percent of the hands youre dealt from this position (actually, the percentages are even higher, because PT only registers a blind steal attempt if there are no limpers to you). If you want to raise 30 percent of your hands from the button, youre gonna have to raise some absolute junk. 2. Position makes it profitable to play many more hands: If, in theory, its profitable to play X% of hands UTG at a 6max game, then it will be profitable to play X+Y% (Y>0) of the hands youre dealt on the button. Position is a HUGE advantage; obviously, this is not a new concept for SSNL. 3. Table image/metagame (this is less important than the above two reasons, but still worthy of a mention in my opinion): When weak players see you show down 75o after raising preflop from the button, theyll think youre a fish and give you action the next time you raise aces UTG. Stronger players might realize youre positionally aware, but A) sometimes youll get aces on the button, B) if they suspect youre playing a bunch of junk from late position and decide to tangle with you without hands, guess what? In general, neither of you will have hands, and youll have position after the flop comes, and C) at SSNL, strong players are MUCH less common than weak players. When To Do It? 1. Use PT stats:

If youre on the button, use the statistics Folds BB to steal and Folds SB to steal to evaluate the preflop tendencies of the players in the blinds. It is notable that you can only get these statistics in your hud if you have Poker Ace Hud. This is one of many reasons to upgrade if youre using GameTime Plus, but thats an issue that probably deserves its own thread. In general, the more these players are relinquishing their blinds, the better, but this doesnt necessarily mean I wont steal if I expect to be called. If, say, Im on the button, the SB is a nit who folds his blind to steals every time, and the bb is a 65/1/1 fish who A) rarely folds his blind and B) rarely folds postflop, Ill raise to isolate the fish with almost any two cards. If youre in the CO, youll still want to glance at the percentage of time the blinds fold to steals, but youll also want to look at the percentage of time the button calls a preflop raise. In the past, Ive been guilty of not paying enough attention to this statistic; if the player on the button is constantly calling raises preflop and has a reasonable postflop game, it makes sense to cut down on the junk youre playing from the CO. 2. Use non-statistical reads: Maybe youre on the button, and the players in the blinds tend to defend their blinds by calling preflop, but tend to shut down if they miss postflop. In a case like this, its profitable to raise (and continuation bet, of course) with any two cards. Maybe effective stats are deep, and neither of the tags in the blinds likes to fold to steals, but both of them have a tendency to overvalue top pair, overpairs, etc. Ill be much more likely to raise with junk in a spot like this than with 100bb stacks against players in the blinds whom I respect. I could spend time coming up with more examples; the bottom line is that its not difficult to find excuses to play more hands if youre a thinking player and will have position throughout the hand. How To Play With Your Junk After The Flop WARNING: NOT EVEN CLOSE TO SAFE FOR WORK But seriously, when I came up with the idea for this post, I intended for this section to be the meat of it. Playing junk from late position is easy when you pop it up preflop, everyone folds, and you get the blinds. But sometimes youll get a caller or two. What follows is a list of the situations in which youll find yourself when you raise from late position with a not-so-great hand and get called, and fabricated hands designed to illustrate the written principles. For simplification, Ill assume that theres one villain per hand, that the villain wont 3bet preflop, that he wont donkbet the flop, and that stacks are always 100 BBs. This is obviously unrealistic, but this article is theoretical in nature. Note that I ordered the three categories in this list in a way that I think proceeds from easiest to hardest to play, and also in a way that I think proceeds from least interesting to most interesting: 1. You hit the flop hard (two pair, trips, set, straight, flush, boat, quads, royal flush, big draw): You lucked out with your junk, and its time to get the villains monies. Slowplaying can be a reasonable option once in a while when A) you have the board crippled and your hand is beastly enough to let the villain catch up without having to worry about being outdrawn, or B) the villain is a thinking player and you want to throw him a curveball for shanias sake. But in general, you flopped huge and want to get some money in the pot. Poker at its core is about playing big pots with big hands. You have a big hand, so start building the pot. Bet, bet, bet is usually the play here. If a scare card hits, youll want to slow down sometimes; this is read-

dependent, of course. $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 6 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter Stack Sizes SB: $Whatever BB: $200 UTG: $Not MP: $Very CO: $Relevant Hero (BTN): $200 Preflop: 5 4 ($3, 6 players) UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5 Everyone folded to you. You dont have to do it every time, but this is a good spot to try to pick up the blinds. Flop: 5 A 4 ($15, 2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB calls $13 One caller. Thats about the best flop you can ask for. The board has two diamonds, and I didnt provide a read on the villain, so theres no reason to slowplay. I like a bet of close to the pot because the board is drawy. Turn: J ($41, 2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $35, BB calls $35 Same logic as above, really. Our hand is vulnerable, but at this point its almost always the best hand, so bombs away. River: 6 ($111, 2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $78, BB folds Bet size is preference. Since theres no need to protect anymore, its reasonable to make a smaller bet. I have shoved in these spots before, though. $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 6 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter Stack Sizes SB: $Whatever BB: $200 UTG: $Not MP: $Very CO: $Relevant Hero (BTN): $200 Preflop: 8 6 ($3, 6 players) UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5 Blinds, position, metagame, etc.

Flop: 6 J 6 ($15, 2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $11, BB raises to $29, Hero calls $18 When the board is drawless, I tend to continuation bet a bit smaller. Yum, he raised. Youre not afraid of being outdrawn (he has two outs at most), so call and let him think continue to think his AJ is the best hand or fire another barrel with air. Its possible that he has something like A6, but when you raise preflop with a 6 in your hand and flop trips with it, youre not folding the hand when the stacks are this size. Turn: T ($73, 2 players) BB bets $60, Hero shoves, BB folds The turn was another diamond and provided air like KQ and AQ with straight draws, so he theres a small possibility that he has some outs now. I can see just calling anyway -- and Id do it fairly often, especially with the right read -- but shoving is a bit safer and perfectly reasonable. Read: The villain in the following hand is a level one thinker with no handreading skills. He plays at about 25/9/1.5, and has a tendency to call big bets with draws, to go too far with top pair, etc. $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 6 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter Stack Sizes SB: $Whatever BB: $200 UTG: $Not MP: $Very CO: $Relevant Hero (BTN): $200 Preflop: T 7 ($3, 6 players) UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5 See above. Flop: 2 9 8 ($15, 2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB calls $13 You flopped an open-ended straight flush draw, which is a favorite over any hand except a set (and even against a set, it has about 42% equity). Its possible that the villain has you in bad shape with something like K J , but its unwise to worry about that; you should think of your hand as an absolute monster. You want to throw out on a continuation bet on the flop because you have an equity advantage over the villains range and you want to build the pot. If you get raised, youre shoving. If you get called and hit on the turn, youre making another big bet. If you get called and miss on the turn, both betting and checking are reasonable; the better the villain, the better an option betting becomes, in my opinion. This is the case because a good player will generally raise a wet flop like this with a big hand, and if a good player doesnt have a big hand, he wont call a turn bet. Sidenote -- its important at this point to clarify what I meant above when I used the phrase big draw. Everyone knows what the terms two pair, trips, set, straight,

flush, boat, quads, and royal flush mean, but the phrase big draw is somewhat ambiguous. An OESFD will always be a big draw, but how about an open-ended straight draw, a flush draw, a gutshot and two overcards, etc.? A big draw, for the purpose of this article, is just a draw that youre willing to felt on the flop. This is heavily dependent on reads and flow, of course; its more of a feel thing than a science. Turn: Q ($41, 2 players) BB checks, Hero checks. Our read indicates that checking is probably better than betting in this spot. Were not confident that the villain will fold to a bet, and our hand no longer has an equity advantage over a pair. Betting is good because it disguises your hand, but the villain is only thinking on one level and will probably pay off a river bet if you hit anyway. Checking does carry the disadvantage of making it impossible to stack the villain if we hit on the river, but rarely in poker are there flawless plays. River: K ($41, 2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $30, BB calls $30 Time to value bet. Read: The villain in the following hand is very aggressive postflop and likes to raise your continuation bets with a wide variety of hands. Hes a solid player, though, and has respect for your play. $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 6 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter Stack Sizes SB: $Whatever BB: $200 UTG: $Not MP: $Very CO: $Relevant Hero (BTN): $200 Preflop: 7 9 ($3, 6 players) UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5 See above. Flop: 6 Q 8 ($15, 2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $11, BB raises to $40, Hero shoves, BB folds Im calling this a big draw and including it in the first category of hands because against this villain, youre willing to reraise all in with it after he check-raises your continuation bet. You have at least eight outs no matter what the villain is holding and against a hand like AQ, youre less than a 2:1 dog. The villains range is very wide, and hell fold often enough to the shove for it to be a good play. 2. You missed the flop entirely (no pair, very little drawing potential): Your hand is more or less hopeless at this point, and the only way to win the pot is to bet. The play in this spot is generally to make a pure bluff on the flop, and to

continue at times on the turn (and I dont make a habit of three-barreling, but sometimes its +EV with the right board and the right read). Against the 65/1/1 type I described at the beginning of the post, the best play is often just passing up on a continuation bet and shutting down. It might feel strange to raise preflop with a garbage hand and then not even bet the flop, but if hes not folding and you have a minute chance of improving to a real hand, putting more money in the pot might as well be burning it. Read: The villain in the following hand is a straightforward tag, say 17/13/3.5 or so. He plays solid, but youve played a ton of hands with him and never seen him make a move or a tricky play postflop. $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 6 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter Stack Sizes SB: $Whatever BB: $200 UTG: $Not MP: $Very CO: $Relevant Hero (BTN): $200 Preflop: 7 6 ($3, 6 players) UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5 Im raising suited connectors in this spot almost every time. Flop: K Q 3 ($15, 2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB calls $13 Bad flop. The club provides our hand with a runner flush draw, but thats hardly a good draw. You want to bet based on the texture of the flop and not on the strength of your hand, so you make the same bet as you made with the monster hand on the drawy flop above. He calls, which more or less means he has a king, a queen, JT, or diamonds. Turn: 2 ($41, 2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $35, BB folds The turn is a brick, which is a good thing in this spot. Betting here is a solid option, because A) the villain is straightforward enough that we can assign him a fairly tight range, and B) most of his range will fold to a turn bet. The villain most likely wont continue to draw against us with these pot odds, and theres a good chance hell fold a queen, maybe even the weaker kings in his range. Not a play Id make every time, but this is a thinking players turn bet. Read: The villain in the following hand has folded to 7 of 11 continuation bets thus far, but aside from that seems like a donk and Poker Ace Hud shows that he has gone to showdown 28 percent of the time, which is fairly high. $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 6 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes SB: $Whatever BB: $200 UTG: $Not MP: $Very CO: $Relevant Hero (BTN): $200 Preflop: J 8 ($3, 6 players) UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5 Blinds, position, suited cards, implied odds, etc. You know the big blind has a tendency to pay off. Raising will steal the blinds pretty often, and if you flop big, you might get rewarded with a stack. Flop: A Q 5 ($15, 2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $11, BB calls $11 Hes folded more than half the time to continuation bets, so theoretically even a full pot cbet should show a profit. You bet a little over two thirds of the pot because the flop is pretty dry and again, consistency is a good thing. Turn: 5 ($37, 2 players) BB checks, Hero checks The continuation bet didnt work, the runner flush draw we flopped was eliminated by the turn card, and our read is that this villain likes to go to showdown. We still dont have a pair, so we cant semibluff either. Now is a good time to give up. River: 2 ($37, 2 players) BB bets $24, Hero folds J-high is good almost never in this spot, even against this villain, and raising is just asking for it. As Taylor Caby would say, just pitch the hand. Read: The villain in the following hand is the 65/1/1 megafish described earlier. He has folded to continuation bets only two times out of 15 and gone to showdown 53 percent of the hands hes played. $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 6 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter Stack Sizes SB: $Whatever BB: $200 UTG: $Not MP: $Very CO: $Relevant Hero (BTN): $200 Preflop: Q T ($3, 6 players) UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5 You know the big blind is probably calling preflop, but raising is good anyway because its +EV to isolate this dude with pretty much any two cards, especially

with position. Flop: 2 K 4 ($15, 2 players) BB checks, Hero checks Hes not folding, so theres little reason to bet. If youd flopped top pair (either the queen or the T) youd be betting this flop with a plan to get three streets of value. The only reason to consider betting now is if you think queen-high is good enough for value, but even thats illogical because you wont get three streets of value out of even the biggest fish with a high card hand, and we dont even have an ace. Turn: 3 ($15, 2 players) BB checks, Hero checks See flop analysis. River: T ($15, 2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $12, BB calls $12 Time to take this noob to valuetown. Its not a certainty that your hand is best, but youre losing major value if you check behind against this guy. 3. You got a piece of the flop (bottom pair, middle pair, low top pair, a mediocre draw): I left this for last because I think its the most discussable situation. A mediocre draw is any draw that youre not willing to felt on the flop -- depending on your read of the villain and your feel for the situation, this can mean overcards, a gutshot and an overcard, even a hand as good as an open-ended straight draw or a flush draw. This category is interesting because its the only one of the three in which there are usually two reasonable ways to play the flop and the turn: A) Check behind. If you have a weak pair, your hand might be good but cant stand to play a big pot. A check behind with a hand like middle pair is a value check -- it keeps the pot small, induces bluffs, and ensures that you wont get raised off your hand and that it gets a chance to improve to trips or two pair. A check behind with a mediocre draw like a gutshot and overcards is somewhat tricky, but its a reasonable option at times because it guarantees that you wont get raised off a hand that has something like six outs, ten outs, etc. B) Bet. Bets in spots like these are semibluffs. If you flop middle pair and elect to continuation bet, youre generally not betting for value. Your goal is to take down the pot, but if that doesnt occur, at least youve inflated the pot for your five outer (two outs to trips, three outs to two pair). If you have a draw that youre planning to fold to a raise on the flop, you are betting and hoping the villain folds, but with the knowledge that your hand has some outs if you get called. $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 6 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter Stack Sizes SB: $Whatever BB: $200

UTG: $Not MP: $Very CO: $Relevant Hero (BTN): $200 Preflop: J 4 ($3, 6 players) UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5 This hand is some serious junk, but it is reasonable to open with it once in a while from the button. Flop: J 3 Q ($15, 2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB calls $13 You flop middle pair and elect to semibluff with it. It doesnt make much sense to bet your jack for value at this point, because its going to be pretty tough to bet all three streets with this hand unimproved and see a showdown. You bet $13 because the board is drawy. Unfortunately, the villain calls. You might have the best hand at this point, but that doesnt mean the continuation bet was for value. Turn: 3 ($41, 2 players) BB checks, Hero checks You decide not to continue the semibluff this time. If the villain can read hands, hell know that you dont have a good made hand now, but in this hand the villain is unknown. If the river bricks and the villain makes a reasonable bet, you have little choice but to fold. River: Q ($41, 2 players) BB bets $30, Hero folds The villain could be betting missed spades or air, but its probably more likely that he has a queen or a better jack than we have. Ill try to pick villains off in these spots in the right situation, but the standard play after semibluffing, checking through a blank turn, and missing on the river is folding if the villain makes a river bet. $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 6 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter Stack Sizes SB: $Whatever BB: $200 UTG: $Not MP: $Very CO: $Relevant Hero (BTN): $200 Preflop: J 4 ($3, 6 players) UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5 You have the same hand and elect to raise it again; youre going to play the flop differently this time, though. Flop: J 3 Q ($15, 2 players)

BB checks, Hero checks Oh my, a very similar flop. Last time, you tried semibluffing with your flopped middle pair, which was perfectly reasonable. This time, youre going to check behind and try to see a cheap showdown. I tend to be more likely to try this with dryer flops. I changed this flop slightly from the last hand -- this flop was rainbow, the last one was two-tone -- but Im capable of semibluffing on a dry flop and checking behind on a wet flop, etc. Its also better to check behind with a pair of jacks or queens than with a pair of fours or fives, of course, because overcards are scare cards when your hand is just one pair. Turn: 3 ($15, 2 players) BB checks, Hero checks This is a good turn card. Theres still not much of a reason to bet, because youre not getting more than one street of value out of this hand. If the river doesnt scare us and the villain checks again, its time to think about betting. If the villain bets the river, you have little choice but to call since you induced a bluff. River: Q ($15, 2 players) BB bets $9, Hero calls $9. Theres a chance the villain has you beat, but Im not folding after the way we played the hand. Theres no reason to raise the river (save for very high level thinking against a villain with whom you have a lot of history), so calling is the only option in this spot. Read: Villain is nitty and bad. He runs at 9/5/4; when he calls a raise preflop, it usually means he has a pocket pair. If he flops an overpair, hes generally felting it. He likes to check-raise continuation bets big with small overpairs, unaware that against good players, this turns his hands into bluffs. $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 6 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter Stack Sizes SB: $Whatever BB: $200 UTG: $Not MP: $Very CO: $Relevant Hero (BTN): $200 Preflop: 4 5 ($3, 6 players) UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5 Your hand sucks, but the BB is the perfect player to blind steal against because hell usually fold his hand, and if he doesnt, you have implied odds out the wazoo. Flop: 6 7 2 ($15, 2 players) BB checks, Hero checks You flop an open-ended straight draw on a rainbow board, but the villains range consists mostly of overpairs and sets. Given the provided read, the villain will check-raise if you continuation bet. PokerStove says your hand only has a 29.26

percent chance to win against the range of JJ-66 and 22, so if you get check-raised big by the villain, you cant shove and you wont have the odds to continue with the hand. You decide to check behind and ensure that you get to see a free card, knowing that theres a good chance of stacking the villain you peel off a 3 or an 8. In addition, if you miss on the turn and the villain bets, you can call the bet knowing that you generally have the implied odds to continue. Turn: 9 ($15, 2 players) BB bets $12, Hero calls $12 The turn doesnt complete your draw, but its a low enough card that the villain can still have an overpair with JJ or TT (Im assuming he wouldve reraised preflop with QQ+), and he could have a set with 99, 77, 66, or 22. Calling is a slam dunk against this villain. River: 9 ($39, 2 players) BB bets $44, Hero folds You have close to the nut low, and judging by the villains tendencies and his overbet, theres a good chance he just filled up. Its possible the he just has an overpair, but our read is that he wont fold that to a shove anyway, and in this case he might even be right to felt it if you pushed because a river push would make your line strange as hell. Just fold this time and stack him when you have a real hand. Read: Villain is loose preflop and likes to call raises out of position with hands like QJ, KT, etc. Hell fold to a continuation bet if he misses the flop, though; thus far, Poker Ace Hud indicates that hes folded to 13 of 16 continuation bets. $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 6 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter Stack Sizes SB: $Whatever BB: $200 UTG: $Not MP: $Very CO: $Relevant Hero (BTN): $200 Preflop: 4 5 ($3, 6 players) UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5 Against a BB like this, you can probably raise profitably and then continuation bet with any two cards. This analysis ignores the SB, of course, but for the purpose of this article, the SB doesnt exist. Flop: 6 7 2 ($15, 2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB folds The flop is the same as in the last hand, but the villain is different. Whereas a check-raise loomed against the last villain and implied odds were plentiful if you checked behind, this villain will probably fold to a continuation bet (and a hand like KT or QJ is about even money against our draw at this point), and its tough to say how much money well make if we check behind and make our hand. If the villain

makes a big raise, we probably wont continue, but thats an unlikely scenario. Against this villain, the play is to continuation bet and try to take the pot down. Read: Villain is a 44/18/5 lagfish who loves to attack weakness. He folds fairly often to shows of strength -- in fact, he has folded to five of seven continuation bets so far -- but you have seen him fire three barrels with air when he thinks he can steal pots. $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 6 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter Stack Sizes SB: $Whatever BB: $200 UTG: $Not MP: $Very CO: $Relevant Hero (BTN): $200 Preflop: J 9 ($3, 6 players) UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5 From the button, this hand is an auto-raise for me. Flop: J 8 3 ($15, 2 players) BB checks, Hero checks You flop top pair and check behind. The flop has two spades and any Q, K or A is a bad card for you, but given your read, checking behind is the play. If the villain fires the turn, youre calling 100 percent of the time regardless of the turn card. The river is trickier if he bets again, but its important to keep your read in mind. Turn: 4 ($15, 2 players) BB bets $14, Hero calls $14 The turn was an undercard and didnt scare you. As expected, the villain bet out. This is an easy call against this villain, and theres little reason to raise. River: K ($43, 2 players) BB bets $23, Hero calls The king is a bad card because you no longer have top pair. The villain leads for $23 into a pot of $43, giving you 66:23 odds (a little less than 3:1). Its possible that the villain hit the river, but you reason that your hand will be good more than 25 percent of the time against his range. This is good reasoning against a villain like this one -- if hed bet the pot on the river, youd have a harder decision, but with pot odds this generous, the river bet is a pretty easy call. Pooh-Bah/CT Post: Betsizing/Hand reading
#7926945 - 11/04/06 04:38 PM

Bet sizing and hand ranges in Small Stakes NL First Id like to just say how much Ive learned about poker from this forum and hope to be able to give something back to the group of people and community that has helped me makes money and exercise my brain. Ive only really been around

about 8 months and didnt play seriously for many of those first months, but after gradually spending more time on 2p2 and getting the courage to post here Ive developed into a poker player (I have the FTP jersey to prove it !). I didnt write a Pooh-Bah post for several reasons, mostly I am lazy. At the request of lorez I am discussing hand reading and bet sizing, as I feel they go hand in hand. I am currently playing 200NL with occasional shots at 400, but Ill try to keep this basic enough for all levels of uNL and up. Practice, practice, practice. Work on developing your reads, put people on hands all the time. When you are watching a high stakes game, or just in between hands at other tables, actively attempt to put people on hands. I will frequently say out loud the hand I think my opponent has, this creates accountability. Secondly, you have to put faith in your reads. If you put your opponent on a draw and then he makes a PSB on the river, make the call. As soon as these decisions start influencing your bankroll you suddenly become much more excited about the proposition of being right about what your opponent has. What you can do at the table. Make notes, and lots of them. Whenever you see someone play a hand differently than their PT stats or perception of them as a player would lead you to believe, make a note. Some samples: donkbet with air, lead into pfr and bet 3 streets with TPWK, bluff raise river with missed draw. But Im getting ahead of myself here. What basic elements of pt stats should you be looking at when deciding hand ranges for opponents? VPIP This is the most basic, if your opponent has a vpip under 20 he just isnt going to have 94 if he limps behind limpers or cold calls a raise. Most likely he is limping with suited connectors, Axs, and small-medium pocket pairs. PFR This one is pretty clear too, if a x/6/x player raises from UTG in a 9 handed game, he isnt going to have 33 or AT, these shouldnt be included in his hand range later. AF Now this is where it gets more complicated, people with low AF (total post flop), say lower than 2, arent often betting out with draws, or making elaborate semibluffs. When a passive player raises the turn your TPTK is often no good (see: Baluga Theorem). Similarly these players arent going to bluff missed draws as often so if there was a FD on the flop, its not wise to assume that a missed draw is a big part of villains range when he pots the river. This has all been pretty vague, and is intended as more of a primer for some of the uNL people and maybe some of the limit converts. A lot of hand reading is based on what I would call feel. Sometimes you just know when a guy is leading into you with a flopped set and you can make a great fold with an overpair. One of the biggest cues I use to read hands online is bet sizing. Preflop The small raise from EP: A typical LP player opens in EP for just over the minimum. This is nearly always a monster. Min-raises: This is something I make notes on to narrow a range down, but as far as I can tell, a good range for minraises preflop is 22-99, A2s-A9s, 34s-JTs, suited one gaps, and then it kind of breaks down based on individuals. These are pot sweeteners just juicing up the size of the pot with a hand they want to play. Use this to your advantage and see a flop too if your hand is reasonable, or if its a good hand, then go ahead and re-raise them and youll often find yourself winning the

pot preflop. The 8xbb+raise: This is a scared monster, something like QQ or JJ where the villain doesnt want to play postflop, some will pull this maneuver with KK, AA, and even AK hoping to take it down then, or build a big pot so they dont have to worry about folding. Use the 5/10 rule judiciously, and dont try to 3bet these guys light, they arent going anywhere. Our raises: As you can see, a simply pfr size helps us narrow down our opponents hand range, in some cases significantly. This is precisely why we use the 4xBB +1/limper formula to make preflop raises (a PSR is fine too, especially as you get to .5/1 and 1/2). 3 bets: The lower the level the tighter our opponents are here, at 25nl (I never played 10, so I dont feel comfortable making generalizations) most villains arent 3betting without QQ+, and maybe AK. As you move up, the average players range widens to something like TT+ AQ+ at some of the more aggressive 200nl 6max games. Use this to your advantage. At the uNL levels, see a flop with a PP these guys cant fold aces ever, so stack them with every set, but be weary and dont put more bets in postflop just to make sure. No set, no bet is the way to go here. As you move up, start 3betting with a wider range yourself, I think in shorthanded games especially, you should be more aggressive than the average player preflop, For example, at 50nl when most people arent yet 3betting without the goods, try a resteal the next time that tag that has a name like BustoYOU tries to steal your blind, liberating isnt it? Flop We are finally here, some community cards to work with. Now we get more information about our opponents hand. Ill deal with mainly raised pots in which we are the aggressor, as this is the most common spot for a 2p2 TAG to be in. Donkbets: This is when a guy calls your pfr OOP and the leads into you on the flop. In general this means a weak made hand or a draw. The more taggy your opponent the more often they will be leading sets and big draws they want to b/3bai with. If a typical player leads into you on a Q72r flop and you have AQ, control the pot and just call. If the flop is QsTs8o then consider raising to price out a draw. If you hold an overpair and a TAG leads into you on a dry flop, call and re-evaluate the turn. If the flop is draw heavy you can either raise, or let a blank roll off and bomb the turn. If you see someone lead into you with a hand like TPTK or another odd hand, then make a note. Minbets: In general treat these as checks, if you were planning to check behind, then just call. If you were going to make a cbet, make a good sized raise. These hands tend to be even weaker than those by people who make larger donkbets including small PPs and naked draws. I could go on and talk about every type of betting situation and what I think of various betsizes, but Id rather look at some examples of where hand reading comes into play. The villain in the following hand is 16/8/24, yes 24 aggression, with a 15% WtSD (sample size is 300 hands). He had been playing solid aggressive poker, and I feel like he can fold due to his low WtSD. I decide to call with AQ preflop because I have position and I also suspect that he is raising limpers from LP with a wide range. On the flop I have 2 overs and a gutshot to the nuts. He makes a standard, if not a bit small, cbet I decide to call with position looking to bluff the turn or make the best hand. I suspect that he will fire a second barrel fairly liberally as his turn AF is 6. The turn is a total blank and he fires again. Now here is where the hand reading comes into play. Would he fire again here with a huge hand like 3 Jacks? Unlikely, he would likely go for a c/r. Also I suspect he is capable of making a laydown and

so a hand like AA will often get mucked if I push. The reason I can assume this is my image, over the 100 hands I played at this table I had been quite tight, playing 16/7.5/2 with a WtSD of only 5.8%. With this type of image I think his calling range is on the order of JT, TT, JJ, sometimes QQ+. Against this range I am still drawing live, but most importantly, the portion of his range with which he bets (something like 88+, AT+ KQ, QJ, JT, and some other random aces) I have a lot of FE against. Full Tilt Poker No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $2/$4 Stack sizes: CO: $473 Hero: $420 Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with Q A UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO raises to $20, Hero calls, 3 folds. Flop: 3 T J ($50, 2 players) CO bets $28, Hero calls. Turn: 5 ($106, 2 players) CO bets $75, Hero raises all-in $372 This next hand took place in an aggressive shorthanded game, with lots of light preflop raising. Villain is a typical aggTag and plays about 23/20/3. My image is similar at 22/18/3. I played this hand with him earlier which indicates his range preflop is widened as well as some hint to what his flop check means. Full Tilt Poker No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $1/$2 Hero: $248 BB: $1070.25 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with 4 4 UTG folds, Hero raises to $7, 3 folds, BB raises to $21, Hero calls. Flop: J 5 7 ($43, 2 players) BB checks, Hero checks. Turn: 5 ($43, 2 players) BB bets $30, Hero calls. River: 9 ($103, 2 players) BB checks, Hero checks. Results: Final pot: $103 He had K Q and MHIG Now, on to the hand: I put his preflop range at AT+, KJ+, 22+, and some scs. I would have likely folded to a cbet on this board, but he checks. I cant stand a check raise and would likely check here with most hands (especially a set). Because of the previous hand, I start to discount the chance of him having a set or AK here, although its certainly a possibility. I decide to make a move on a decent turn card

and check behind. The turn is another low blank and he makes a bet, I go with my plan and make it 122 to go, this sets me up for a potsized river push which is the betsizing id use with the nuts or a set here. He calls and I start to wonder what his hand is, could he actually have AK? He checks it to me on a fairly blank river card. After he checks I immediately remove a set from his range, he would never play it that slow (he plays big hands fast like most 2p2 style tags). I think his range is something like JJ, QQ, AA, AK. Of this range I think they all fold to a river bet. The only hand of those I can see looking me up is AA, and I cant win by checking. Now, a betsize. How much would I bet here with a set? I make a roughly 2/3 pot bet and this way I save some money when he has played a big hand sneakily, and I think 220 and a push are the same when it comes to folding out other hands. Full Tilt Poker No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $1/$2 Stack sizes: Hero: $475.90 BB: $835.40 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with Q J UTG calls, Hero raises to $9, 3 folds, BB raises to $27, UTG folds, Hero calls. Flop: 4 2 K ($57, 2 players) BB checks, Hero checks. Turn: 3 ($57, 2 players) BB bets $40, Hero raises to $122, BB calls. River: T ($301, 2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $220 This is getting to be longer than a Pokey post, which means about 3 people are actually going to read it. Hopefully it was helpful. Making PT go VROOOOOOOOOOOM
#9211542 - 02/16/07 02:10 PM

Mods, this thread is being posted here because I had several requests from people in an SSNL thread. Disclaimer: BACKUP your DB before making ANY significant modifications to your PT DB. I will not be held responsible for any loss of data. Repost from my blog: If you haven't upgraded to postgres, go here. Always back up your databases before making any significant changes. How to make a backup: Before fiddling around with any settings, back your database up. This can be accomplished by going to Utilities->PostGreSQL Database Functions...->Backup. The compression is insane. My 4 Gb database was compressed down to 230Mb, so don't be alarmed if you get super compression.

The steps are pretty self explanatory. Be warned, the conversion process takes quite a while if you have a maxed out Access database. I'd recommend leaving it for over night. Assuming you've either installed postgres or already had it going, the rest is how to get the best performance out of your database. A database without size limitations can obviously get quite cumbersome as it gets large, so tuning performance is key. Basically, your ability to read your information from PokerAceHUD or GameTime+ will NOT be affected by PokerTracker's poor performance, however, your ability to manually look up information will be compromised as the database gets large. It can literally take over a minute on a decent system to load the player list. Hardware: (skip if you are already competent in this area) ****************************************************************** ****************** First thing is first. The best way to increase any database performance is via hardware. In terms of hardware and where to spend your money, you want to buy a nice hard drive first, then memory, then a processor. The type and speed of your hard drive is the number one factor in how well your database will perform. Accessing information from a hard drive is the slowest operation in a computer's pipeline, so even a small percentage gain in speed will yield much larger time savings than if you were to upgrade your memory or CPU. Ideally you would want some super crazy 15,000 RPM SCSI drives in RAID 10. For the rest of us a nice 7200 RPM SATAII 16Mb cache hard drive will suffice. Next you want to make sure you have adequate memory. I run with 2Gb and a 3.2 Ghz HT processor. It's probably about par for the course as far as the average system these days. Just remember, when it comes to overall performance of your machine, memory is the best upgrade you can make. These gains in performance will trickle down to database functions, just remember that your hard drive is the biggest bottleneck when it comes to database speed. ****************************************************************** ****************** Once postgres is set up Before fiddling around with any settings, back your database up. This can be accomplished by going to Utilities->PostGreSQL Database Functions...->Backup. The compression is insane. My 4 Gb database was compressed down to 230Mb, so don't be alarmed if you get super compression. Clustering As mentioned above, the hard drive is by far the slowest component in the information pipeline/heirerarchy of any computer system. That being said, if you can limit the times you go to disk to read or write data, you gain in performance. Clustering is a concept that involves putting data that is likely to be accessed simultaineously very near to eachother. When data is accessed from a hard drive, it is accessed in chunks, not just one item at a time. So when you load your player list in PokerTracker, you are grabbing many players at a time. Assuming you could predict which information was to be accessed first you could structure the database so that those items would be stored in sequential order on the hard drive, instead of being scattered, leading to the least amount of disk accesses possible. To make a long techno-babblish story short, some dude figured out a nice way to do this for us. His explanation isn't all that elegant, so let me break down what you need to do to

get some nice performance gains from PT. Access the DOS command prompt: Go to Start->Run-> type in "cmd" -ORPress windows key+r and type "cmd". Generally the windows key is the key to the right of the left CTRL button (has a Windows logo on it). -NEXTMake sure you have the correct pathname for your postgresql psql application. Generally speaking it's going to be c:\program files\postgresql\8.0\bin\psql. THis is a utility that will help us accomplish our goal of clustering. Next, go into PokerTracker. Go to File->Maintain Database Names and see what the name of the postgres database is. IMPORTANT!!! This name is the name in the RIGHT COLUMN called DB File/DB Name/DSN. Confusingly it is NOT the name under the "Name" column. We're almost ready: Copy and paste the following lines JUST AS THEY ARE (quotes and all). Make sure you substitute YOUR_DB_NAME with the name found in the Maintain Database Names right-hand column. You do not need to copy and paste this line by line, just paste the whole thing into the command line and it will execute sequentially. These commands can take anywhere from 2 minutes to 1 hour to complete depending on the size of your DB. "c:\program files\postgresql\8.0\bin\psql" -d "YOUR_DB_NAME" "cluster session_idx_02 on session;" "c:\program files\postgresql\8.0\bin\psql" -d "YOUR_DB_NAME" "cluster player_winnings_idx_02 on player_winnings;" "c:\program files\postgresql\8.0\bin\psql" -d "YOUR_DB_NAME" "cluster player_idx_02 on players;" "c:\program files\postgresql\8.0\bin\psql" -d "YOUR_DB_NAME" "cluster game_idx_01 on game;" "c:\program files\postgresql\8.0\bin\psql" -d "YOUR_DB_NAME" "cluster game_players_idx_05 on game_players;" -U postgres -c -U postgres -c -U postgres -c -U postgres -c -U postgres -c

Other Tweaks Congrats on getting this far. DBAs (Data Base Administrators) make [censored] bling doing some of this stuff, so don't be shocked to learn that it's sort of complicated. There are some other ways to get better performance out of the DB. Personally, I've had less success with these than I did with clustering, but none-the-less, if you are interested you can give them a go. First, it is important to note that many programs have .conf files. These are text files that have data that function as inputs to a program. This is what they did before the days of GUI programming and in cases where a nice GUI is unnecessary, the practice is still used. That being said you can access postgres' .conf file by going to Start->All Programs->PostGRESQL 8.0->Configuration Files-> (there should be 3). To learn more about postgresql.conf check out the link. This will walk you through what some of the settings do. Backup your databse before fiddling with any of them.

If you are feeling confident, read this guide to tuning postgres performance via the conf file. If you have any questions, hit me up and I will do my best to help (I will be out of town all weekend). Why am I C-betting this again? (Theory, long)
#7994180 - 11/09/06 07:24 PM

TL; DR; and a lot of these concepts are stolen directly from Green Plastic videos and other good posters on these boards (True, Debitel, Orange, Epdaws, others I am shamefully forgetting). I'd greatly appreciate if we can get some discussion on these topics going. To be honest, I almost think each of these 6 points could deserve its own thread In SSNL, conventional wisdom is that the pre-flop aggressor should always C-bet in a heads-up pot. There have been a lot of "When should I c-bet?" threads, and I can recall that in many of them, the standard answer was "Heads-up? Always. 3-ways? Sometimes, in position." I was definately one of those posters. I think there are a couple of reasons this is popular. First, it makes for easy decisions. Raise, C-bet, scoop pot or fold to C/R, move on, until we get to a big hand/big pot situation, in which case decisions are also usually easy. Second, the fact that many C-bets with made hands win the pot convinces many players that their bet was, indeed, the correct move. After all, they won the pot, right? But on this forum, we should by now know that it's rarely that simple. Maybe you could have won a bigger pot. Maybe you just got lucky, and your move that is wrong 90% of the time just won the pot because this is one of those other 10% holdings. I couple of things have changed my mind about C-betting. Part of it is that, as you rise in stakes, players get a lot more tricky (note that this is a separate attribute than "good": bad players can be tricky, and good players can be tricky). They check-raise more, and with a wider variety of hands. Bad players might check-raise with hands that they really shouldn't check/raise with, like underpairs, or TPNK, or middle pair, and good players will tend to balance it out more by check-raising monsters, semi-bluffs, and big overpairs. But the range of hands players will play aggressively changes as you move up. I think there are a few factors to think about when you are deciding whether to C-bet your hand in a heads-up pot. To reduce the complexity of the decision trees involved, let's (for the moment) assume 100 BB stacks, and a potsize of approximately 7-10BB. 1) The value of your hand 2) Whether or not you opened in a steal position 3) Whether or not being check-raised will present you with a difficult decision 4) Whether or not betting presents your opponent with an easy decision, or betting will make your opponents turn/river decisions easy 5) Your position 6) Whether or not the pot is re-raised 1) The value of your hand First, let's consider whether you have a made hand, a draw (weak or strong), or

complete air. Made Hands Every time you have a made hand, you should be thinking of how to extract the most value from it vs. worse hands. In some cases you may decide that this isn't very feasible (always trying to showdown 22 unimproved on any board is probably not a great idea). With strong hands, the best way to get value from it is to bet it. AK on an A97 flop, for example. Sets on just about any flop, but especially A-high and drawy flops. However, there are some strong hands that you should really check (at least some of the time). If you have AK on an A72 rainbow flop, potting the flop is a pretty good way to make just about any one-pair hand without an Ace fold. If you have KK on the same flop (yes, this is a strong hand), you have the same problem. Many times, the best way to get value from these hands is to check the flop, especially if you have position. With medium strength hands, the best way to get value is never very obvious. For example, 88 on a 459 board with two diamonds. Obviously, there are some worse hands that might call a flop bet (67, any diamond draw), and there are also many turn cards that you will not want to see. But, in genaral, if your opponent folds to this bet, it was almost always a hand that you were a 2 or 3:1 favorite over. An additional problem is that many of those "worse hands" will not just call your flop bet but will raise (see point 3). Whether or not you bet a medium-strength hand should depend on the board texture and your opponent's tendencies with the range of hands that you are ahead of, especially if those tendencies are identical to when he holds hands that you are behind. Draws There's a very good section on playing draws in Miller and Sklansky's NLHTaP, and I will not repeat all of it, but important points are that the if your draw is not to the nuts, or is very weak, you should be more inclined to bet. With these holdings, the value of winning the pot outright becomes much greater than simply hitting your draw, because if your draw is very weak, you won't hit it very often, and if your draw is not to the nuts, you might lose a lot of money if you hit (or gain very little from worse hands). Examples of weak non-nut draws that you should be inclined to bet are: bare overcards (these are sometimes the best hand, yes, but if you are called, you are essentially on a 6-out draw), gutshot straight draws (if you can pick up the pot a good percentage of the time, this makes up for winning big pots the rare times you hit, because you just don't hit very often), low flush draws on paired boards (if you hit, you won't get a lot of action except from the nut flush or full houses, unless players are very loose), and open-ended straight draws on two-tone flops (again, if you hit on a flush card, you probably won't get a lot of action). You would also, of course, be inclined to bet very strong draws, like the nut flush draw with two overcards, or open-ended-straight-flush draws, or pair+flushdraw combos (although if your "pair" is the Ace, then you should be more inclined to check because it is often the best made hand and is not vulnerable to the flush draw for obvious reasons). With non-nut draws, you should be aware of the possibility of making your opponent sometimes fold a better draw by firing two (or sometimes three!) barrels,

which, depending on your opponent, can make you more inclined to bet. Complete Air Unless you are giving up on the pot entirely, or have some reason to believe that a delayed bluff will be more successful, I think you should just about always C-bet with complete air -- it's one of the reasons raising a wide variety of hands pre-flop is profitable at all. 2) Did you open in steal position? Players will give you less credit for a hand. This might mean they are more likely to call you lightly (so you can get more value from moderate-hands) or it may mean that they are more likely to c/r lightly (making it hard to gain value from weak/moderate hands by betting). Also, your opponents range for calling you preflop is wider when you steal from the CO and Button. Again, depending on how the player plays with his hand range, and his perception of your hand range, should influence your decisions on whether to Cbet, whether you welcome a C/r, etc. 3) How much does getting check-raised suck? If you have 3 3 on an A 3 6 board and get check-raised, you are probably doing a little jig in front of your monitor. If you hold A 7 on the same board, that's not so hot. How about K K ?

Notice that all those hands have very strong equity vs. the naked flush draw, but the A7 hand and especially the KK hand suck vs. most Aces. In general, you really don't want to be put in positions where your hand is probably the best hand, but you will have to fold because you might be crushed. Note that in many cases, the turn action changes things greatly. For one, players very rarely try to c/r twice, and if they do, they generally don't c/r bluff the turn with naked draws (most players would bluff by betting after the turn was checked through). So if it is checked to you on the turn, you can safely value bet, and you can usually fold to a c/r without feeling the least bit bad about it. If it is bet to you on the turn, your hand is still often best (because your opponent will be bluffing a good % of the time, or "value betting" a weaker hand thanks to the weakness you showed on the flop), but notice how very often your equity vs. most draws has gone way up. By the way, if you check a hand like KK on the above flop, resist the temptation to slow-play if you hit your 2-outer on the turn. This is because the villain will sometimes be semi-bluffing, and will sometimes be betting an Ace, and he is pretty unlikely to put you on a set given the flop action, and in both cases he will very likely call a big raise. 4) Are you making it easy for Joe Tag or Mac Donkey to play this hand? Let's go back to the A72 rainbow flop. You're making it pretty easy for both players to play this flop if you pot it. They'll probably just fold anything less than an Ace here. Unless you are holding complete air or a set, this is making things too easy for them, especially if you have position (almost regardless of what made hand you

hold). There are certain made hands (33-55 being the prime examples) that benefit greatly from a flop like this, but other made hands (like 99-KK and weak Aces) that really don't want to make things that easy for Villain, as they are way ahead of villain's non-Ace holdings. 5) Are you in position? All things considered, in a heads-up pot, I'm much more inclined to bet out of position than in position with my made hands. It's much harder to extract value from medium strength hands (and easier to be bluffed off of them), and the value of simply winning the pot goes way up in comparison to the value of extracting another bet from worse hands. 6) Is this a re-raised pot? You shouldn't always bet in a re-raised pot. If you have a monster, the pot is big enough to get the money in on 3 streets. And often in re-raised pots, your bets are only going to be called by a very narrow range of hands, which is fine if you hold air, or if you have a set, or AA on 743 flop, but not so hot if you hold KK on a QJx flop, or QQ on an A72 flop. ofishstix's Pooh-Bah Post
#13041430 - 11/20/07 03:58 AM

It has been a little over four years since I started playing poker and about three years since Ive done so online. In this time, Ive learned and forgotten a bunch of ideas and concepts. Some things my friends and I learned/reasoned out were right, others were terrible wrong. In terms of advice, though, there is one piece that is so important Ill never forget it I got to durrrrs house around midnight when he was playing some 200/400 PLO. He was already up 600k on the day and was about to cal it a night. After he finished up his sesh, we went out to take care of some things. In the car he was telling me how soft the heads up games on Prima were. Theyre all sports betters who like gambling. Sit at 5/10, find a fish, and they never stop reloading. Ill take half your action. I three tabled 3/6 6 max, 5/10 full ring, and 5/10 HU. He was helping me out with the HU match as I had never played HU NL outside of SNGs. This is when I learned that limping the button is fine. If youre going to get called anyway, why would you want to bloat the pot with marginal hands like 45s? Limp and outplay your opponent postflop. Good advice, but not exactly epiphany-type stuff. Though I dont remember the exact hand, I remember the lesson it prompted. I hadnt 3bet preflop in a while so I decided to do it with something marginal like J9o. durrrr asked me why I did that and I told him that I hadnt 3bet in a while so I thought it would be a good time. He told me: Always have a good reason for everything you do Dont 3bet for the sole reason you havent done so in a while. Dont bluff raise the flop just because you havent done that lately. You must reason out every move you make. Doing so will make you play more actively/not in autopilot mode. You will constantly be analyzing your play and improving. It will help prevent you from making terrible, tilty, and spewy plays because youre not just acting on a whim,

youre consciously reasoning through your options. Despite the great advice, I still ended up being down 4k because I lost one 200bb and two 400bb coin flips. Now owing him 2k, I decided to take a nap and .5% of his session. I woke up a few hours later and durrrr was up 400k which covered my debt. That day, in fact, turned out to be his famous million-dollar-day. Though I broke even that day, the lesson helped me make plenty over the last 10 months. In addition to poker, this lesson can be applied to everything. Its much harder to make a poor decision when you think through it first. Good luck, ofishstix Suited Connectors, Implied Odds, and You (Theory/Math)
#6996709 - 08/21/06 12:13 AM

A recent thread about using the 5/10 rule to call preflop raises with PPs and suited connectors got me thinking about the kind of implied odds required to call preflop raises with SCs; people tend to arbitrarily use things like the 5/10 rule, even though I've never seen any mathematical description of the kind of odds you need to call these raises. I'm going to attempt to solve that problem (but I still need some help!). I'll list the conclusions first, and leave the tl;dr math for the bottom for those of you that want to peruse it. I also encourage math-head-types to check my math to make sure I didn't mess anything up. There are two kinds of hands you can flop with SCs: Good made hands (most of which can be made by calling with ATC, which of course we don't do) and draws. First, made hands, stolen off some page I googled: Odds of flopping... Flush: 0.84% Two pair: 2% Trips: 1.35% Full house: 0.09% Quads: 0.01% Straight: 1.31% ------Total: 5.6% (1 in 18 times, 17:1) However, most of the time you will be flopping draws instead of big hands with SCs, and that's where things get complicated. Let's separate this into two categories: combo draws and regular draws. COMBO DRAWS Odds of flopping... 20 outer (OESD + FD + pair): 0.077% 17 outer (Gutshot + FD + pair): 0.153% 15 outer (OESD + flush draw): 1.424% 14 outer (Pair + flush draw): 1.450% 13 outer (Pair + straight draw): 1.147% 12 outer (Gutshot + flush draw): 2.664% -----------------------Total: 6.9% (1 in 14 times, 13:1)

These draws are all hands that can be played profitably after the flop; either you are a favorite against an overpair, or getting AI on the flop is +EV when you take some fold equity (and thus taking down dead money) into account. Combining these big draws with good made hands, you'll have a relatively "big hand" on the flop 12.5% of the time, or 1 in 8 (very close to how often you will flop a set with an overpair). However, since a set is a near-invincible hand and you still have to improve with these draws, you can't say that you also need about 7:1 odds to call with a suited connector. Your average equity on the flop with these made hands and combo draws against an overpair is 66% (the made hands go from 75%-99%; the combo draws range from 45%-65%); compare this with sets, where your equity is generally 90+%. REGULAR DRAWS Odds of flopping... 9 outer (flush draw): 5.2% 8 outer (straight draw): 8.0% ----------------Total: 13.2% (1 in 7.5 times, 6.5:1) These are your standard draws; when you flop a hand with which you can continue, it will most frequently be one of these. These draws improve to a flush or straight on the river about 1 time in 3. Summary - you have a 5.6% (1 in 18, 17:1 chance) of flopping a good made hand - you have a ~7% (1 in 14, 13:1) chance of flopping a strong (12+ outs) combo draw - you have a ~13% chance (1 in 7.5, 6.5:1) chance of flopping a standard OESD or FD Adding these all together, you will flop a hand you can continue with on the flop 25% of the time (1 in 4). However, only half of the time will these hands be immediately profitable (i.e. +EV to shove it in); the other half, you'll have your standard old OESD or FD which requires playing some poker. So, a question from me to all you math-heads: How do you combine these preflop odds with the odds of hitting your hand postflop to figure out the implied odds required to call with SCs preflop? If you don't like numbers, skip the rest of the post; what follows is how I calculated everything.

tl;dr math Made hands: I calculated the odds of flopping a straight myself; with 65s, for example, there are four flops that give you a straight (789, 478, 347, 234). The odds of hitting each of those flops are 12/50 * 8/49 * 4/48; multiply that by 4 flops, and you get 1.31%. Combo draws

All examples assume you have 6c5c. OESD + flush draw + pair (20 outs ZOMG): You need a flop of 87(6/5), 7(6/5)4, (6/5)43, with two clubs each. 8c 7c 6/5x: 2/50 * 1/49 * 5/48 * 3 = .0255% Multiply by 3 to get odds for all three flops = 0.07653%. Not very high. Gutshot + flush draw + pair (17 outs): You need a flop of 98(6/5), 97(6/5), 8(6/5)4, 7(6/5)3, (6/5)42, (6/5)32 with two clubs. 9c 8c 6/5x: 2/50 * 1/49 * 5/48 * 3 = .00255% Multiply by 6 to get odds for all six flops = 0.153%. OESD + flush draw (15 outs): You need a flop of 87x, 74x, or 43x with two clubs; in addition, you can catch ultradeceptive flops of 973 with two clubs or 842 with two clubs. Odds of flopping 87x with two clubs, where x does not complete a flush or straight and does not pair your hand: 87x: 7c 8c x = 2/50 * 1/49 * 27/48 * 3 = 0.138% 7c 8x xc = 1/50 * 3/49 * 10/48 * 6 = 0.153% 7x 8c xc = 3/50 * 1/49 * 10/48 * 6 = 0.153% Total = 0.444% Total for all 3 flops = 1.332% 973: 9c 7c 3x = 2/50 * 1/49 * 3/48 * 3 = 0.0153% *3 for 9c 7x 3c/9x 7c 3c = 0.0459% *2 for 842 = 0.0918% Total odds of flopping 15-outer: 1.424% Pair + flush draw (14 outs): Two clubs and one of your hole cards: 6/50 * 11/49 * 10/48 * 3 = 1.68% Since we already counted pair + FD + OESD and pair + FD + gutshot, subtract 0.07653 and 0.153 to get1.45% Pair + straight draw (13 outs): using 65s, possible flops are 87(6/5), 7(6/5)4, (6/5)43 8/50 * 4/49 * 5/48 * 3 = 0.408% Multiply by 3 for all three flops = 1.224% Since we already counted pair + FD + OESD, subtract 0.07653 to get 1.147% Gutshot + flush draw (12 outs): You need a flop of 98x, 97x, 84x, 73x, 42x, 32x (where each flop has two clubs). Same calculation as OESD + flush draw; 0.444% per flop * 6 flops = 2.664% So, total odds of flopping a combo draw = 0.07653% (20 outs) + 0.153% (17 outs) + 1.424% (15 outs) + 1.45% (14 outs) + 1.147% (13 outs) + 2.664% (12 outs) = 6.915% = 1 in 14 times (13:1)

Regular draws OESD (8 outs): There are five flops you can catch an OESD with: using 65s as an example, there's 87x, 74x, 43x, 973, and 842. Odds of flopping 87x (where x does not pair your hand and does not complete a straight): 8/50 * 4/49 * 34/48 * 3 = 02.94% Subtract 0.442% for the times it makes an OESFD (which we already counted) = 2.498% Multiply by 3 for the odds of 87x/74x/43x: 7.494% Odds of flopping 973: 12/50 * 8/49 * 4/48 = 0.33% Multiply by 2 for the odds of 973/842: 0.65% Subtract 0.0918 since we already counted double gutshot + FD: = 0.558% Total odds of flopping non-combo OESD = 8.05% Flush draw (9 outs): Two clubs + a blank that does not complete a flush or pair your hand: 11/50 * 10/49 * 33/48 * 3 = 9.26% Subtract 1.424 and 2.661 since we already counted the times where the flush draw gives you an OESD, and you get 5.175% non-combo flush draws. So, your total chances of flopping a standard 8 or 9 out draw are 8.05% (OESD) + 5.175% (flush) =13.225% (1 in 7.5, 6.5:1). I calculated the average equity of made hands/combo draws against overpairs by taking the weighted average of each: 0.077 / 12.5 * 65.556 (0.077 / 12.5 = %age of time you flop oesfd+pair, 65.556% = equity of 6s5s on 9s8s6x board against AcAd) + .153 / 12.5 * 57.677 + 1.424 / 12.5 * 56.26 + 1.45 / 12.5 * 50.71 + 1.147 / 12.5 * 45.86 + 2.664 / 12.5 * 47.78 + 0.84 / 12.5 * 97.17 + 2 / 12.5 * 74.55 + 1.35 / 12.5 * 87.78 + 0.09 / 12.5 * 91.414 + 0.01 / 12.5 * 99.899 + 1.31 / 12.5 * 96.717 My Pooh-Bah post (C/R vs. b/3b)
#5354245 - 04/08/06 01:57 PM

OK, I know its time for me to make my Pooh-Bah post, but my problem is, that Im not good at these long posts, and I dont really have a good, original idea what to post about, so Im going to write a short piece on C/R vs. b/3b with both monsters and combo draws.

Firstly though, I want to point out a general fact that is a lot of the time overlooked on this forum. Every1 (including me and a lot of the well respected posters) on this board keep harping on about playing combo draws and monsters the same way. We justify saying that by spouting the words shania, metagame or game theory usually. However, its quite obvious, that with the 2 hands we are looking for 2 different things. When we have a monster, we want to get paid off, and when we have a combo draw, we want folding equity. Against a very good opponent (one that is better than us or as good as us), then playing your draws/big hands the same way is the line that achieves optimal +EV. However, against a donk, this is not true. For instance, vs. a calling station that will always stack off with TP, whats the point getting all in on the flop with 12-15 outs when you know he will call, when instead you could draw with good odds and stack him when you hit, b/c hes that bad. Similarly, vs. a nit, theres no point bet/3betting all in with a set on a dry board, b/c youre letting him fold his overpair. OK, now that Ive got that out of the way, let me tell you about some of the considerations when deciding whether to b/3b or C/R: Stack Sizes (in relation to the pot): This is really important. Theres nothing worse than C/R a board with a combo draw, only to get called, have a lot of money behind on the turn, and the turn bricks. Youre aim it normally to get AI on the flop with both a combo draw and a monster, so if unsure, its best to take the line that that gets you all in with the most ease. Eg. You have $20 behind and the pot is $10, then a C/R is the best option, as it gives your opponent a chance to cbet/bluff and your C/R will easily be all in. If however you have $95 behind and the pot is $17, then a bet/3bet is better. Lead for $17 and then after even a minraise, youre 3bet all in, is a PSB. The other reason that stack sizes are important, is to figure out the FE you have on a draw. Obviously, the shorter stacked the opponent is, the less FE youre going to have Dead Money: This again is VERY important and a point overlooked regularly. You want to take the line that traps the most dead money in the pot. E.g. Lets say that UTG raises, and gets 3 callers, you call in the SB with a suited connector, BB fold. You flop an OESFD. If you lead out, and the PFR raises, then the 3 callers inbetween will all fold. If, however, you check, the PFR bets, then hopefully a few of the players inbetween will call with a draw/weak TP or whatever, and when you then C/R, you trap all of their money in the pot. The opposite of this is also true. I.e. you call the buttons raise in the SB and 3 others also call it, then its best to lead out, as you trap the most dead money in the pot that way. Image/Reads: Imagine the PFR is a LAG who cbets a lot, but gives up UI on the turn. Then obviously, a bet/3bet line is inferior to the C/R, as you lose his potential cbet. If however, the PFR is very agro and can raise semi-weak leads with air/weak made hands, then the bet/3bet line is superior as we trap more of opponents money in the pot. As well as our read on our opponent being important, our own image is important. If for instance, we have been seen to C/R big with a monster hand before, then it might be best to C/R big next time with a combo draw, as well have a lot of FE.

Also, the tighter our image, the weaker our draw can be that were either C/R or bet/3betting as well have more FE. If however, we have a very loose image, then its best to stick to very strong draws, as we will get looked up more often. Lastly, as Ive already stated above, our read on villain is important as to how many draws we can play fast. If villain is a nit, then we can play a lot of draws fast, if he is a calling station, then very few. The Turn One of the biggest problems with a bet/3bet line, is if our opponent doesnt oblige, and he just flat calls our lead. Here, reads are VERY important. If you think he is the type to just call on the flop with TP, then theres little point making a big bet on the turn getting him to fold it, as its very likely he wont. It is instead better to bet an amount that prices you in, or maybe just check/call. If however, you think that youre opponent is floating you on the flop, then it might be best (albeit very high variance) to C/R the turn. C/R with other hands I see so many posts on this board that say Well I flopped TP, but with a weak kicker, so I checked. He then bet, which I think could be a cbet, so C/R him to find out where I stand. IMO this is a terrible (and expensive) reason to C/R. A much better line is to just lead the flop, or if you want to snap off the cbet, then call, and lead a blank turn. While this line is quite transparent at higher levels, it is VERY VERY effective at SSNL. Lastly, Id like to introduce you to the dbitel rule of checkraising: By default, never C/R, only C/R if you have a very good reason to do so Preflop 4betting (Theory)
#9761689 - 03/29/07 08:19 PM

tl;dr This post was inspired by this thread, some brief AIM conversations with this guy, and a curiosity Ive noticed I have about preflop play since I started datamining and dabbling with 400 NL -- a level known for a distinct spike in aggression, especially preflop -- a few weeks ago. The following discussion isnt meant to be a be all, end all on preflop 4betting. If something like that could exist, poker wouldnt be the fascinating game that has captivated the majority of this forum. Rather, I hope this post provides some food for thought about why to 4bet and helps some of SSNL with regard to how to think about villains ranges and how they should affect preflop decisions. If you read this post and think you got something out of it, you might like my Pooh-Bah Post. Why 4bet? Its fairly simple, really. Two reasons (no order): 1. For value: Not much explanation necessary. If A) you think you have the best hand and B) the villain has 3bet and you think its likely that hell call or shove over the top of your 4bet with a worse hand, the play is generally to 4bet for value. There are times when it makes sense to just call a 3bet with hands like AA and KK, but for the purpose of this article Ill advocate an aggressive preflop strategy and assume that

A) many villains 3bet light, B) to counter this, its helpful to have the light 4bet in your arsenal, and C) to balance light 4betting, you want to 4bet for value with AA and KK, and at times, AK, QQ, etc. 2. As a bluff: As I touched on, this article assumes that villains 3bet light. In reality, at 200 NL, most villains dont 3bet very light. Ive found that some TAGs 3bet very light/frequently, especially if A) they suspect youre raising light from late position or B) they have position on you. At 400 NL, most TAGs 3bet light. This is a personal observation, and my experience at the level is relatively limited. If you have played 400 NL, you might disagree. At the very least, however, theres a significant increase in preflop aggression from the 1/2 games to the 2/4 games. Say youre sitting with a 26/22 LAGTAG and hes 3betting the crap out of your open raises. You have a few options: 1) Leave the table. This is often a reasonable approach, especially if he has position on you. Too many of us play poker with our egos, and Ive been guilty of doing so myself. We play to make money, and if the light 3bettor is competent postflop, it can be pretty tough to make money. However, we also play to have fun and to improve, so it often makes sense to stay at the table -- especially if there are one or two weak players sitting. 2) Open up your calling range. This can be useful, especially if youre in position. Even out of position, it can make sense to mix in some speculative calls with the knowledge that A) youll hit sometimes and B) you can check-raise a bunch of flops profitably to throw the villain off guard. 3) Throw in some light 4bets. This is what Ive been setting up for, and its a key component of this article. The situation follows: A) the villain knows youre a TAG (or a LAG) and are opening with a pretty wide range, B) as a result, hes 3betting with a wide range, and C) being 4bet with the bulk of the hands with which hes 3betting is going to put the villain in some very tough spots. If a villain is 3betting light, your 4bets should have a ton of fold equity (perhaps not after the villain realizes whats happening, but at least for the first session or two). Against some villains, 4betting light is major +EV. With that said, much of the importance of the move is rooted in metagame. Its very bad for your raises to be constantly 3bet, and in general, a villain will be less likely to 3bet after he notices that youre willing to 4bet his 3bets. Easy stuff. Show me some math: When I decided to write this article, the purpose I had in mind was to explore the small 4bet. As I explained, there are two reasons for the preflop 4bet (or any bet or raise, really): for value, and as a bluff. The first one is easy; when betting and raising for value, its tough to run into trouble. 4bet bluffing preflop is trickier. The issue is that poker is a game of math. Theres this stuff called pot odds, and more often than not, it dictates your decisions in this game if your goal is to play soundly. When you 4bet light, youre hoping the other guy folds. Unfortunately, though, he wont always fold. I suppose there will be times when hell call (especially if hes bad -- but really, you shouldnt be doing light 4betting against bad players). Much more often, however, hell shove. And when he shoves, things get fuzzy, because A) at this point, youre being laid major odds, and B) obviously, you cant know what hand he has (unless youre Phil Hellmuth and have world class reading

ability). When things get fuzzy, it becomes more likely that youll make a mistake. When you make a mistake, you give up expected value. The more expected value you give up, the lower will be your win rate. I hope the following calculations illustrate some of the reasoning behind small preflop 4bets: What follow are some assumptions I made for the purpose of my PokerStoving. At the risk of stating the (very) obvious, these things will rarely be exactly the case. This is a theory article. 1) effective stacks are always 100 big blinds. 2) players wont call your preflop 4bet; if they continue with the hand, theyll 5bet all in. 3) Nit will 5bet all in with AA and KK and fold everything else (note: you might be thinking, If this guy is a nit, why are you 4betting his 3bets light? The response is, Whatever, its theory. For the purpose of this article, Nit doesnt mean he doesnt 3bet light, its just a name Im giving him to differentiate his 5betting range. For the purpose of this article, dont worry about 3bets, how they should affect these players 5betting ranges, etc. -- just go with the assumptions, even if some of them seem contrived.). 4) Conservative TAG will 5bet all in with the above two hands plus AKs, AKo, and QQ (and fold all other hands). 5) Aggressive TAG will 5bet all in with the above hands plus AQs, JJ, and half the combinations of TT (and fold all other hands). 6) LAG will 5bet all in with the above hands plus AJs, half the combinations of ATs, the other two combinations of TT, 99, half the combinations of 88, and half the combinations of 87s (and fold all other hands). I came up with these ranges in the span of a few minutes; if you think they seem random, youre right. Theres little rhyme or reason to them, theyre just four ranges that start out tight and gradually increase in scope. Obviously, the number of ranges with which the following calculations can be performed is essentially infinite. Adding a broader range of ranges (ugh) to this analysis definitely has some merit, and hopefully someone will do this if its decided that the initial investigation is worthwhile. First, lets look at some scenarios in which you 4bet pot. Note that none of these 4bets are for value; each one is a bluff. The best hand you hold in the following scenarios is TT. Even TT is a dog against the widest of the villains 5betting ranges, so when you 4bet with this hand, youve decided to turn your hand into a bluff. TT does have solid equity against the range of LAG, but its important to realize whats occurring. Turning TT into a bluff by 4betting isnt necessarily a poor play; it is not, however, a value raise. Youre UTG with 65s. You open to $7. Two folds to Nit on the button. Nit makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. Nit 5bets all in. Pot Odds: You have to call $125 to win a pot of $278. Youre getting 278:125, or 2.22:1. 100/3.22 = 31.06. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 22.496% 22.29% 00.20% 18321336 168354.00 { 65s }

Hand 1: 77.504% 77.30% 00.20% 63532548 168354.00 { KK+ } Are you priced in to call? No. You need a little over 31% equity to call, and you only have about 22.5%. You can fold the hand without making a mistake. Youre UTG with 65s. You open to $7. Two folds to Conservative TAG on the button. Conservative TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. Conservative TAG 5bets all in. Pot Odds: Same as above, $125 to win a pot of $278. Youre getting 278:125, or 2.22:1. You need 31.06% equity or more to call. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 31.144% 30.92% 00.22% 72010208 515570.00 { 65s } Hand 1: 68.856% 68.63% 00.22% 159831996 515570.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo } Are you priced in to call? Yes. You need a little over 31% equity to call, and you have it almost exactly. Youre priced in to call with only about 31% equity; youll get stacked more than twice as often as youll suck out, but calling is correct because folding would be a slight mathematical error. Since youre priced in to call all in after making a pot 4bet with 65s against the range of Conservative TAG, youll be priced in with the same hand after the same action against both Aggressive TAG and LAG as well. These guys have wider 5bet shoving ranges, so folding against them becomes a significantly bigger mistake. The good news is that your 65s has more equity against their ranges. The bad news is that theyll 5bet shove on your 65s more often, and your hand is still a pretty big dog against the group of hands with which theyll be pushing. Youre UTG with TT. You open to $7. Two folds to Nit on the button. Nit makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. Nit 5bets all in. Pot Odds: Still $125 to win a pot of $278. Youre getting 278:125, or 2.22:1. You need 31.06% equity or more to call. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 19.057% 18.86% 00.20% 23252328 242334.00 { TT } Hand 1: 80.943% 80.75% 00.20% 99548892 242334.00 { KK+ } Are you priced in to call? No. TT is generally a much better hand than 65s, but Nits range is so narrow that TT actually performs worse than 65s against the hands Nit could be holding. You need more than 31% equity to call and only have about 19%, so you can pitch it without making a mathematical error.

Youre UTG with TT. You open to $7. Two folds to Conservative TAG on the button. Conservative TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. Conservative TAG 5bets all in. Pot Odds: You need 31.06% equity or more to call. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 36.413% 36.21% 00.20% 126502032 693396.00 { TT } Hand 1: 63.587% 63.39% 00.20% 221421192 693396.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo } Are you priced in to call? Yes, 36.4% is enough equity that you should be calling. Like in the first scenario, since youre priced in against this guy, youll also have to call against the remaining two fictional players. Its notable that even against LAG, your TT is a slight dog (about 45.5/55.5). Youre UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to Nit on the button. Nit makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. Nit 5bets all in. Pot Odds: You need 31.06% equity or more to call. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 11.486% 11.15% 00.34% 20613120 628650.00 { KQo } Hand 1: 88.514% 88.17% 00.34% 163058412 628650.00 { KK+ } Are you priced in to call? No. Youre UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to Conservative TAG on the button. Conservative TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. Conservative TAG 5bets all in. Pot Odds: You need 31.06% equity or more to call. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 20.751% 20.26% 00.49% 99910656 2423022.00 { KQo } Hand 1: 79.249% 78.76% 00.49% 388386852 2423022.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo } Are you priced in to call? No. You need a bit more than 31% equity to call, and youre only getting about 21%. Youre UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to Aggressive TAG on the button. Aggressive TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. Aggressive

TAG 5bets all in. Pot Odds: You need 31.06% equity or more to call. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 26.751% 26.33% 00.43% 194732364 3147627.00 { KQo } Hand 1: 73.249% 72.82% 00.43% 538687710 3147627.00 { JJ+, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, AQs+, AKo } Are you priced in to call? No, youre still not getting enough equity against the range youre facing. Youre UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to LAG on the button. LAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a pot 4bet to $75. LAG 5bets all in. Pot Odds: You need 31.06% equity or more to call. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 32.027% 31.67% 00.35% 351420780 3937734.00 { KQo } Hand 1: 67.973% 67.62% 00.35% 750276744 3937734.00 { 99+, 8c8s, 8d8s, 8h8s, AJs+, AhTh, AsTs, AKo } Are you priced in to call? Yes. This range is wide enough that you have to call, and when you do call, youre a big dog. Now, lets look at some similar scenarios. Your hands will remain the same, as will the villains ranges. However, in the following hands, you make a small 4bet to 2.25 times the villains 3bet ($54) instead of 4betting pot. Such a 4bet risks less money while still denying villains the odds to set mine against you and to call with speculative hands. In addition, it makes calling a 5bet shove less attractive from a pot odds perspective, so you wont be mathematically obligated to call shoves as often after making a light 4bet. Important note: you might be thinking, Fair enough, but a small 4bet doesnt have the same fold equity as a 4bet to pot. IN REALITY, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT BE THE CASE! For the purpose of this article, IT IS NOT THE CASE. If I were to assume that the villains 5betting ranges change when you decrease the size of your 4bet, the examples would become extremely lengthy and complicated. For the purpose of this article, assume that a small 4bet has the same fold equity as a big 4bet. Youre UTG with 65s. You open to $7. Two folds to Nit on the button. Nit makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Nit 5bets all in. Pot Odds: You have to call $146 to win a pot of $257. Youre getting 257:146, or 1.76:1. 100/2.76 = 36.23

Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 22.496% 22.29% 00.20% 18321336 168354.00 { 65s } Hand 1: 77.504% 77.30% 00.20% 63532548 168354.00 { KK+ } Are you priced in to call? No. You need a little over 36% equity to call, and you only have about 22.5%. You can fold the hand without making a mistake. Youre UTG with 65s. You open to $7. Two folds to Conservative TAG on the button. Conservative TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Conservative TAG 5bets all in. Pot Odds: Same as above, $146 to win a pot of $257. Youre getting 257:146, or 1.76:1. You need 36.23% equity or more to call. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 31.144% 30.92% 00.22% 72010208 515570.00 { 65s } Hand 1: 68.856% 68.63% 00.22% 159831996 515570.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo } Are you priced in to call? No. You need a little over 36% equity to call, and you only have a bit more than 31%. Note that when you 4bet pot, you were mathematically forced to call off your stack after the 4bet bluff with this hand. When you make the small 4bet, though, you can fold to the shove without making a mistake. Youre UTG with 65s. You open to $7. Two folds to Aggressive TAG on the button. Aggressive TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Conservative TAG 5bets all in. Pot Odds: Same as above, $146 to win a pot of $257. Youre getting 257:146, or 1.76:1. You need 36.23% equity or more to call. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 30.045% 29.82% 00.22% 95998006 721187.00 { 65s } Hand 1: 69.955% 69.73% 00.22% 224472772 721187.00 { JJ+, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, AQs+, AKo } Are you priced in to call? No. You still dont have enough equity to call. In fact, your equity has dropped slightly despite the fact that the range youre facing has widened. Youre UTG with 65s. You open to $7. Two folds to LAG on the button. LAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. LAG 5bets all in.

Pot Odds: Same as above, $146 to win a pot of $257. Youre getting 257:146, or 1.76:1. You need 36.23% equity or more to call. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 29.368% 29.06% 00.31% 133367872 1400403.00 { 65s } Hand 1: 70.632% 70.33% 00.31% 322728794 1400403.00 { 99+, 8c8s, 8d8s, 8h8s, AJs+, AhTh, AsTs, 8h7h, 8s7s, AKo } Are you priced in to call? No. Even against LAGs range, you can fold 65s to the shove after 4betting. Youre UTG with TT. You open to $7. Two folds to Nit on the button. Nit makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Nit 5bets all in. Pot Odds: Youre getting 1.76:1 and need 36.23% equity or more to call. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 19.057% 18.86% 00.20% 23252328 242334.00 { TT } Hand 1: 80.943% 80.75% 00.20% 99548892 242334.00 { KK+ } Are you priced in to call? No. You werent priced in to call against this guy even after making a pot 4bet, so clearly youre not priced in now that your pot odds have become less favorable. Youre UTG with TT. You open to $7. Two folds to Conservative TAG on the button. Conservative TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Conservative TAG 5bets all in. Pot Odds: Youre getting1.76:1 and need 36.23% equity or more to call. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 36.413% 36.21% 00.20% 126502032 693396.00 { TT } Hand 1: 63.587% 63.39% 00.20% 221421192 693396.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo } Are you priced in to call? Yes, barely. Note that TT also became a call against this guy when you were 4betting pot, but that then, the decision wasnt a close one. Math dictates that with TT, the four villains 5bets should be dealt with the same way despite the difference in 4bet size (since youre priced in against Conservative TAG, youll be priced in against Aggressive TAG and LAG too). However, folding would only be a very minor mistake because the small 4bet leads to much less favorable pot odds on a call. Youre UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to Nit on the button. Nit makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Nit 5bets all in.

Pot Odds: Youre getting 1.76:1 and need 36.23% equity or more to call. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 11.486% 11.15% 00.34% 20613120 628650.00 { KQo } Hand 1: 88.514% 88.17% 00.34% 163058412 628650.00 { KK+ } Are you priced in to call? No way. You need more than three times the equity you have before calling becomes the right play. Youre UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to Conservative TAG on the button. Conservative TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Conservative TAG 5bets all in. Pot Odds: Youre getting 1.76:1 and need 36.23% equity or more to call. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 20.751% 20.26% 00.49% 99910656 2423022.00 { KQo } Hand 1: 79.249% 78.76% 00.49% 388386852 2423022.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo } Are you priced in to call? No, and its still not close. Youre UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to Aggressive TAG on the button. Aggressive TAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. Aggressive TAG 5bets all in. Pot Odds: Youre getting 1.76:1 and need 36.23% equity or more to call. Equity: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 26.751% 26.33% 00.43% 194732364 3147627.00 { KQo } Hand 1: 73.249% 72.82% 00.43% 538687710 3147627.00 { JJ+, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, AQs+, AKo } Are you priced in to call? Nope. 26.8 < 36.2. Youre UTG with KQo. You open to $7. Two folds to LAG on the button. LAG makes a pot 3bet to $24. You make a small 4bet to $54. LAG 5bets all in. Pot Odds: Youre getting 1.76:1 and need 36.23% equity or more to call. Equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 32.865% 32.51% 00.36% 360688620 3972930.00 { KQo } Hand 1: 67.135% 66.78% 00.36% 740938512 3972930.00 { 99+, 8c8s, 8d8s, 8h8s, AJs+, 8h7h, 8s7s, AKo } Are you priced in to call? No. Even against this guy you can fold and avoid getting all in preflop as a 67/33 dog. Analysis When you 4bet pot with 65s, you were able to fold to a shove from Nit, but you were priced in to call against the other three players. When you 4bet bluffed small with 65s, meanwhile, you were able to fold against all four players shoves without making a mathematical mistake. When you 4bet pot with pocket tens, you were able to fold to Nits shove, but you had to call against the other three. The same was the case when you decreased the size of your 4bet with the tens: folding was correct against Nit, but you had to call against the other three (though against Conservative TAG -- the player with the next narrowest range -- the decision to call in this spot was extremely close). When you 4bet pot with KQo, you were able to fold to shoves from the first three players, but you were priced in to call against LAG. However, when you made your 4bet bluff smaller with this hand, you were able to correctly fold against all four players. When holding TT, decreasing the size of your 4bet changed nothing with regard to the correctness of calling a 5bet shove against the given ranges. However, when holding the other two hands, the smaller 4bet provided you with increased leverage; with 65s and KQo, decreasing the size of your 4bet made it possible to correctly fold to 5bet shoves in spots where you wouldve had to call if your 4bet were bigger. The results were especially drastic with 65s, the small suited connector. With this hand, you were priced in to call three times out of four when making a 4bet to pot. When you made a small 4bet, though, you were priced in zero times out of four. Being mathematically forced to call off most of your stack is bad when you know you are a significant dog in the pot. Being able to 4bet bluff with the knowledge that you can fold to a 5bet all in is a nice luxury. Decreasing the size of a 4bet makes this process possible, perhaps at the expense of some fold equity. How much fold equity (if any)? Tough to say. Wont villains adjust to my small 4bets? Probably not, especially at 200 NL. But yes, if youre pulling this crap often with junk, smart villains should notice eventually and begin to shove over your 4bets with a wider range. If they adjust, you adjust. 4betting small with premium hands is a good adjustment and is important for balance. So, according to this article, does it never make sense to 4bet pot? It never makes sense to 4bet pot according to the assumptions in this article. If I had some way of knowing that light 3betters react the same way to small 4bets as

to pot 4bets, Id eliminate the pot 4bet from my arsenal because if this were the case, 4betting pot would be inferior to both 4betting small and to 4bet shoving, in my opinion. However, its impossible to prove that fold equity is the same regardless of 4betting size. With the information I have, Ill probably begin to replace pot 4bets with a combination of small 4bets and 4bet shoves. Note that its important to make both small 4bets and 4bet pushes with both hands that are marginal and hands that are powerful. Pooh-bah Post (and yes, Im sure I am one)
#5280435 - 04/02/06 03:25 PM

Common actions and why we take them: Well, my pooh-bah post is upon me, and for mine, I decided to post some of the more common actions taken, the pros and cons of each, and why we take them. I would also like to take this time to thank all of the SSNL posters and MSNL that have helped me over the past year. Checking the turn with ok holdings (TPTK, TPGK, marginal overpairs): The turn is often a street where your hand either skyrockets in value, or plummets into the pit of no return. The turn can be a tricky street to play, just like any. So with okmarginal holdings, why is it good to check the turn. Checking the turn allows us to accomplish several important goals in a hand where we have an ok to marginal holding. It allows us to Maintain pot control: TPTK, etc is not a good hand for a big pot. When we check the turn, we are keeping the pot manageable Cheap showdown: Same concept as pot control almost, but getting the hand to showdown cheaply is important. Inducing a bluff: Some villains see a check as weakness and will bet the river or turn with a hand that you beat that they may have folded. However, the major drawback to this is a lack of protection. When we check the turn, we are giving a cheap/free card to a foe who is likely behind. However, it is better sometimes to give up equity in the present for higher equity in the future, so checking the turn is often good. With hands like TPTK, TPGK, we are often Way Ahead/Way Behind, so checking the turn allows us to get to showdown cheaply and easily. Leading with good hands: How can you bet the nuts there? How? I mean its the nuts, you need to slowplay that. This is often how most beginners think. Note: SLOWPLAYING IS ALMOST NEVER RIGHT. When you flop a good hand, such as a flush, straight or set, your best course of action is to bet, bet, bet. Why is this: Big hand, big pot: To get a big pot, you need to make it big. Betting allows you to get money in the pot Deception: Who fastplays the nuts? He cant have quads here, cause he bet the flop. Boy is that donk in for a surprise (if he thinks). With straights and flushes, cards can kill your action: If you flop a flush, and then the turn brings a 4th heart, you are pretty much not getting called at all. Same thing with a straight. Get some money in when you have it. Most impt IMO: IF YOU OPPONENT DIDNT CALL A FLOP BET, THERE WASNT MUCH ON THE TURN THAT WILL ALLOW HIM TO CATCH UP TO CALL A BET THAT YOU STILL BEAT. Sure, that isnt always the case, but usually it is. Also too, a line of check/call,

check/call, bet is suspicious, and checking after a PFR with what appears to be a favorable flop is suspicious too. Draws: Most players have simple maxims like Dont get all in on the come, etc. However, most draws should be played aggressively or not at all. Certain draws, i.e. OESFD, FD and pair, NFD, have more than 15 outs, which makes them a favorite on the flop (albeit marginal). When you flop a draw, it is best to bet it, and with big draws, try to get all in on the flop. Heres why: Deception: Very few villains expect you to have a flush when you have been betting the whole way Pot build: With dead money in the pot or othe callers, you have an edge in equity and need to exploit it. Also too, it is nice to have a pot to win when you hit the draw. Image: If someone sees you bet a draw heavily, or get all in on a draw, they may paint you as nuts, and give you action. Action on big hands is fun. These are some of the most commonly asked questions and some of the main things I have learned over the past 1600 posts here at SSNL. A couple of other things I just wanna say: Lurkers/newbies: I know we may seem harsh and mean, but we really arent. Dont be afraid to ask questions or question why we made certain plays. We are here to give advice, and enjoy doing it. Too, if you think that somebody is wrong, say so. I dont care if its David Sklansky himself posting a review to a hand, if you think hes wrong, say it. Well be more than happy to explain to you why we feel our play is right as long as you explain why you think you are right. Great debates on here have thought me a lot Reads: Reads are often an overlooked, important part of poker. When you see something, use the note feature and right it down. The more info you have on villains the better information you can get. Spend time focusing on trying to figure out what villains do, and then use your read to exploit them. It really adds to the bottom line. Before you post a hand, look in the recent posts to see if there is one similar to yours. If you have a question on TT as an overpair OOP, and on the front page there is a post about it already, then look at that one first. If may answer your question. If anyone here ever wants real time help, my AIM is CAPTAINTWINKE, and am usually always willing to talk poker and help someone out. Good luck to all, Pooh-bah post: addressing two big SSNL questions.
#5237151 - 03/29/06 05:20 PM

So 1500 is a magic number around here; Im officially a Pooh-bah now. In keeping with a time-honored tradition from the limit forums, Im making my pooh-bah post here; its supposed to be my attempt to share some of the wisdom Ive gained over my time at the forums. Ive got to apologize in advance, though; nothing you read here is going to be revolutionary or even new. This post synthesizes some of the ideas Ive had in my time here, and as such it really is just me swiping the ideas of posters who are more clever than I am, repackaging it, and claiming it as my own. But hey -- at least I put forth THAT much effort (*cough*Quark*cough*). There are two questions that recur frequently on these forums. Debates rage about them, and people support both sides of the arguments. I think Ive finally come up

with a conclusive answer to both questions, though. Heres my thought: Burning Question #1: Should I play TAG or LAG? Pokeys Answer: No. Burning Question #2: Should I play 6-max or full ring? Pokeys Answer: No. When you were first browsing through the forums, you probably noticed that there were three no-limit forums: this one for small-stakes players, one for mid-stakes players, and one for high-stakes players. Many of us are in SSNL because we consider ourselves to be in the learning stages of the game. Mind you, some posters here are pretty advanced beginners, but none of us is a true master of the game. Even the very best players in the forum will frequently post hands where they felt truly lost. So what is it that is unique to a SSNL poster, relative to a MSNL or HSNL poster? We consider ourselves at the earlier stages of the learning curve. Heres the biggest (and worst-kept) secret in poker: you learn by doing. Thats why you shouldnt play a TAG game OR a LAG game; you should play BOTH. When youre playing your TAG game youre building a particular set of skills: 1. Patience (critically important to a poker player) 2. Value betting (recognizing when your hand is best and pushing it as hard as you can get away with) 3. Selective aggression (knowing when to fight and when to run away) 4. Positional advantages (even a TAG plays much looser from LP than from UTG) 5. Nut-peddling (not so much getting the nuts, since that happens to everybody, but extracting maximum value WHEN you get the nuts, a critical skill to the TAGs bottom line) 6. Large-ball (a TAG must know how to make the pots he wins as big as possible, since they will be relatively few in number) 7. Creating fights (when a TAG is going to showdown, he usually wants a big pot; manipulating the pot in that direction is crucial to the TAGs long-term success) 8. Using a strong table image (misdirecting opponents into folding when your hand is actually weak based on your past play at the table) When youre playing your LAG game, youre also building a particular set of skills, but its a different set: 1. Hand reading (in order for LAG to be profitable, you have to know when youre beaten) 2. Bluffing and semi-bluffing (LAGs need folding equity to perform optimally; creating and using that equity is a vital part of the LAG strategy) 3. Small-ball (a LAG must know how to win many small pots, since hes going to get eaten alive if he doesnt pick up more than his fair share) 4. Reversed positional advantages (unlike the TAG, the LAG must use position for bluffing, leading at pots OOP and raising UTG to delude opponents into thinking hes actually got a great hand) 5. Post-flop aggression (to win the pot, a LAG must typically BUY the pot; he cant just wait around for a showdown, because his hand wont hold up often enough) 6. Avoiding fights (LAGs dont really want to build many huge pots, since their hands dont survive often enough to make it profitable) 7. Using a weak table image (misdirecting opponents into calling when you actually hit a monster, based on your past play at the table) Both of these sets of skills are vital to a great poker player; since our goal is to

improve, we should build both skill sets, rather than devote ourselves exclusively to one play style. The result is that we become more versatile and creative players, capable of responding to changing table dynamics and images. The player with more than one gear can adapt far more easily than the player who only knows how to play one style effectively, and to develop those other gears, we need to practice them. Be a LAG. Be a TAG. Learn them both. Know their advantages and disadvantages. Then, use the appropriate style given the current table conditions. A similar situation applies to the 6-max vs. full-ring debate. I often hear the 6-max players encouraging the full-ring players to switch to short-handed play in order to learn fundamental poker skills. Thats correct, but its only half the story: in truth, both 6-max and full-ring develop skills for a player, but they develop different skills. A 6-max player will quickly learn one set of skills: 1. Blind defense (youll be in the blinds proportionally more often) 2. Blind attacks (youll have proportionally more chances to steal the blinds) 3. Heads-up play (getting heads-up preflop is very frequent in short-handed games) 4. Small-ball (most of the time, nobody will have a big hand, so small pots will be the rule, rather than the exception) 5. Loose play (to avoid going like Broomcorns uncle, youll need to be involved in pots more frequently) 6. Pushing small edges (when smaller hands usually win, we cant just wait for the stone-cold nuts before we start fighting for the pot) On the other hand, a full-ring player is also developing a set of skills, but again, it is a different set: 1. Patience (winning hands come less frequently in full-ring, and you need to be capable of waiting for them) 2. Positional advantage (since there are many more positions at a full-ring table, youll need to be more aware of position when making your decisions) 3. Multi-way play (having three or more players see a flop is much more common at a full-ring table than in a short-handed game, and it requires special adjustments) 4. Hand protection and punishing draws (when you flop a hand, protecting it from drawing hands is a vital and fundamentally important skill. You dont just want to fold them all out immediately; rather, you want to charge them an unfair price and have them still call you down) 5. Implied odds (when you flop a draw, you need to know when those draws will be worth a call and when they wont; a realistic assessment of implied odds is crucial to the success of the full-ring player) 6. Pushing large edges (a full-ring player needs to know how to extract value from monsters, since those payouts will make up a larger fraction of his profits than they will for a short-handed player) Youll notice that the TAG skills and the full-ring skills seem quite similar, and the LAG skills and six-max skills are equally similar; the two sets tend to go together. That is, a good full-ring player is usually going to want to play a TAG style to reach maximum successfulness, and a good six-max player is usually going to want to play a LAG style to reach maximum successfulness. However, if youve played all four ways enough to have built up all four sets of skills, youll find many opportunities to change styles for a table, an orbit, or even just a hand. If youre playing a TAG game at a full-ring table, but this hand is folded around to you in the SB, you need to apply your short-handed blind-stealing skills for this hand. If youre LAGging it up at the six-max table but five players see a flop, you need to apply the TAG strategies for a multi-way pot in order to be most effective for this hand. If

youre at a full-ring table with three maniacs, dont expect to be able to draw to hands. If youre at a six-max table with five calling stations, dont plan on making use of your (non-existent) folding equity. I encourage everybody who is a six-max devotee to try full-ring for 1000 hands, playing a TAG game and keeping in mind the skills listed above. It might just improve your play by broadening your horizons and deepening your skill set. I also encourage everybody who plays full-ring exclusively to try six-max for 1000 hands, playing a more LAG style and paying attention to the listed skills for that game. Everybody in this forum is here to learn and improve, and the best way to learn in poker is by doing. Dont keep doing what you always do and expect to learn quickly; put yourself in unfamiliar and uncomfortable situations and adapt thats the very best and very fastest way to truly improve your game. Pooh-Bah Redux: Blind Stealing.
#5348855 - 04/07/06 10:08 PM

Well, if somebody hadn't changed my title, I'd be a Pooh-Bah now. Due to someer, irrational exuberance on my part, Im forced to make a SECOND Poohbah post. I havent had quite as much time to think about it the second time around, but Ive decided to address an important and often-misunderstood topic in small-stakes no-limit poker: blind stealing. To those of you who consider blind stealing an insignificant part of the no-limit poker game, or perhaps just an image move to help get paid off on your big hands, think again blind stealing can be an extremely valuable part of your poker arsenal. Ill admit it: Im a ruthless, heartless, helpless, hopeless, habitual blind thief. I stole blinds when I played limit holdem, I stole blinds when I played tournaments, I steal blinds when I play no-limit holdem. Ive stolen blinds from my eight-year-old cousin and from an 85-year-old great-grandmother. I steal blinds when Im playing my 16/9 full-ring TAG game and I steal blinds when Im playing my 35/20 6-max LAG game. Ive always stolen blinds, and I always will. Furthermore, Im reasonably good at it. In the last 17,500 hands, Ive attempted to steal the blinds a whopping 38.31% of the time that works out to be 313 steal attempts out of 817 opportunities. Over those 313 blind-steal attempts, Ive maintained a healthy win rate of 1.10 PTBB/hand: thats 110 PTBB/100. Despite the fact that Ive only attempted a blind steal one time every five orbits, those steal attempts have generated over 30% of my total profits at the no-limit poker tables. Like I said: done right, blind stealing is a VERY important contributor to your overall win rate. So, now that Ive got your attention, lets turn to the issue at hand: how do you steal the blinds successfully? Whats the formula, whats the method, whats the approach? The answer is that its quite easy, and despite that, its wildly successful. Pokeys Rules for Blind Theft: 1. Know yourself and know your target. Blind steals rely heavily on folding equity. The more frequently you try to steal the blinds, the weaker the average hand youll have when you attempt a steal. That means that for the frequent blind thief, youre hoping NOT to get to a showdown. The good news is that the odds of your remaining opponents having a decent hand are slim there are only two or three players left to act, and they have random hands. The odds none of the remaining players have good hands are as follows: - Super Premium Hand, AA-JJ, AK: 94.1% chance with two players left to act, and

91.3% chance with three players left to act. - Premium Hand, AA-TT, AK, AQ: 90.8% chance with two players left to act, and 86.6% chance with three players left to act. - Great Hand, AA-99, AK, AQ, KQ: 87.8% chance with two players left to act, and 82.3% chance with three players left to act. - Very Good Hand, all Great Hands plus 88, AJ: 84.6% chance with two players left to act, and 77.9% chance with three players left to act. - Good Hand, any pair, any two broadway: 67.4% chance with two players left to act, and 55.3% chance with three players left to act. - Above Average Hand, any ace, any suited, any pair, any two broadway: 29.5% chance with two players left to act, and 16% chance with three players left to act. Note what this means: the looser your remaining opponents, the harder it will be to successfully steal the blinds preflop. If your blind steals are a standard 4xBB, then you will wager 4xBB to win 1.5xBB, so if you immediately win 3 times out of 11 you will show an immediate preflop profit, even if you never win a hand when you dont win preflop. Since 3 out of 11 is 27.3%, if our opponents are likely to fold 72.7% of the time, we win immediately. So against players who will only play very good hands versus a steal attempt, you should be stealing with literally any two cards from either BB or CO, and doing so will show an instant profit even before the flop. Of course, the hand range your opponent will consider worthy of a preflop call will expand as you attempt steals more frequently, so you need to remain aware of both your table image and your opponents play style. 2. Aggression, aggression, aggression. When you get called preflop, this is not a tragedy its an opportunity. Most opponents crumble quickly against steady aggression; to successfully steal blinds, we need to apply that steady aggression. However, we need to do so CAREFULLY so as to make sure that our attempts are profitable. The flop is going to improve our hand about one time in three. Lets assume that when were called, were typically behind. This will be the case when we are relentless with our steal attempts and our opponents are conservative with their calls. While this sounds like a recipe for bankruptcy, its actually not bad at all. Consider that even if our opponent is playing as incredibly tight, some of his hand range will include unpaired preflop hands like AK. So, what are the odds that by the flop our opponents hand is at least strong enough to beat unimproved pocket deuces? - If our opponent is only playing Super Premium Hands, his hand on the flop will beat unimproved pocket deuces 73% of the time. - If our opponent is playing Premium Hands, his hand on the flop will beat unimproved pocket deuces 64% of the time. - If our opponent is playing Great Hands, his hand on the flop will beat unimproved pocket deuces 59.4% of the time. - If our opponent is playing Very Good Hands, his hand on the flop will beat unimproved pocket deuces 56.7% of the time. - If our opponent is playing Good Hands, his hand on the flop will beat unimproved pocket deuces 49% of the time. - If our opponent is playing Above Average Hands, his hand on the flop will beat unimproved pocket deuces 40.1% of the time. Now we get into the art of blind stealing: how large should our flop bet be? We want to make sure our flop bet is at the same size whether weve flopped well or not, but were balancing competing issues: how often our opponent will improve, how often we will have a strong hand, how often our opponent will improve and still fold, how often our opponent will improve and well improve more, how often well improve but our opponent will improve more, etc. As complicated as this all sounds, weve got a few things going for us: namely, that we have played the hand

aggressively so far and that we will have position on this and every remaining street in the hand. For people who steal infrequently (say, 20% of the time or less), your flop bets should be sizeable. Given that you are only attempting a steal 20% of the time, you will be stealing with reasonably solid hands yourself: collectively, all suited aces, any pair, and any two broadway cards make up 20.4% of possible holdings, meaning that your hand on the flop will beat unimproved pocket deuces 47.6% of the time. The odds that your hand is worth pursuing is therefore significant enough to warrant a full pot-sized continuation bet from you; if your opponent folds, great, and if not, you have a valuable hand often enough to make this a highly profitable hand for you. However, I dont recommend stealing only 20% of the time. I recommend stealing much more often than that. As an example, my steal rate of 38.3% corresponds roughly to stealing with any pair, any ace, any king, any two broadway cards, and any suited connector down to 87s. If thats your steal range, the chances that on the flop you have at least a pair will be noticeably lower (something like 42.8%). The answer is not to bet less often on the flop; rather, the answer is to bet a smaller quantity on the flop. While a pot-sized bet needs to win 50% of the time to be immediately profitable, a 2/3-pot sized bet only needs to win 40% of the time to be immediately profitable. Notice what this means: if your opponent plays very tightly against your preflop raise, the odds that he has a decent hand on the flop go up, lowering the value of your flop bets. However, the odds that he CALLS your preflop bet go DOWN, raising the value of your PREFLOP bets. At this stage of the hand, weve already had two chances to win the pot: one if our opponent folds to the preflop bet and one if our opponent folds to the flop bet. Consider the value of a steal attempt from the big blind against the various opponents, assuming they will (a) fold preflop if their hand is outside of the specified range (winning 0.75 PTBBs), and (b) only call the flop with a hand that can beat 22 (when they fold, we win 2.75 PTBBs, and when they fold, we lose 5.5 PTBBs). This assumes our betting is 2 PTBB preflop and 3.5 PTBB on the flop. If we consider only the tightest and loosest opponents, we see this: - Super Premium Hands: 94.1% of the time they fold preflop, 27% of the time they fold on the flop. EV = 0.941*(+0.75) + (0.059*0.27)*(+2.75) + (0.059*0.73)*(-5.5) = +0.51 PTBB. - Premium Hands: 90.8% of the time they fold preflop, 36% of the time they fold on the flop. EV = 0.908*(+0.75) + (0.092*0.36)*(+2.75) + (0.092*0.64)*(-5.5) = +0.45 PTBB. Skipping ahead to the loosest players: - Good Hands: 67.4% of the time they fold preflop, 51% of the time they fold on the flop. EV = 0.674*(+0.75) + (0.326*0.51)*(+2.75) + (0.326*0.49)*(-5.5) = +0.08 PTBB.

- Above Average Hands: 29.5% of the time they fold preflop, 59.9% of the time they fold on the flop. EV = 0.295*(+0.75) + (0.705*0.599)*(+2.75) + (0.705*0.401)*(-5.5) = -0.17 PTBB. Once again, this demonstrates a bizarre truism: the less likely your opponent is to fold, the less profitable your blind-stealing will prove to be in terms of folding equity. Note well two points, however: first, this assumes that our opponent is calling EVERY time he has a hand that is at least as strong as a pair of deuces; thus, the opponent holding 22 on a board of AKQ is assumed to call our continuation bet. Also, our EV calculations have thus far assumed that whenever we have not won with the flop bet, we lose every time. This should prove FAR from true, especially against the loosest of our opponents. A safe bet is that we will win at LEAST 1/3 of the time when our flop bet is called, and that safely makes all of these calculations +EV. After the flop, easy and simple rules must be thrown out the window. From here on in, there is too much art in the play to be easily categorized in a summary like this. I do want to point out a few simple points that might make help you in your blind-stealing adventures: 1. Much like bears in the woods, your opponents are more afraid of you than you are of them. This is your hand youve raised preflop and bet the flop. Youre SCARY, here. Given that your opponent has exhibited NO aggression at this point, your folding equity remains solid. Use that ruthlessly. If a scare card hits on the turn and your opponent checks to you again, fire that second (third?) barrel! Dont be afraid to bet the turn ace, the turn king, the turn pair, the turn flush card, the turn straight card, or the turn blank if you think your opponent is running scared. This is another place where knowing your enemy helps. 2. If your opponent gets aggressive, TRUST him. There is no shame in folding your blind steal attempt. If the flop comes A83r and your opponent bets the pot, or check-raises big, feel free to fold your KQo. In fact, feel OBLIGATED to do so. Blind stealing is decidedly a small pot game strategy; if you are risking your stack on a blind steal, youve screwed up big-time. Similarly, if you are stealing with total garbage (86s or some such) and someone reraises, GET OUT. Fold immediately, and without hesitation. Dont bother seeing what the flop brings theres no profit in it. 3. Take free cards if they are beneficial to you. One strength of this strategy is that youll often have good draws on the flop, and your opponent will usually offer you a free card on the turn. If youve got a good draw, feel free to take it. Dont ALWAYS take it, though Ive often fired another barrel with a hand like Tc9c when the board looked like QcJd4s4c. Not only did that turn card 4c improve my hand by giving me nine more outs, but it also scared the doody out of my opponent, making him think that I just turned trips. Why not take advantage of the fear? Instead of playing for my 2-to-1 draw, I can bet immediately and win the pot a significant chunk of the time, and STILL win 1/3 of the time at showdown (usually for even more money, since my opponent wont see my straight or flush coming). 4. Dont get discouraged if your steals fail. Were often worried that because our opponent played back at us the last time we tried to steal, we need to tighten up considerably. Dont. Our opponents dont adjust NEARLY as much as we think they do. Just because you got reraised preflop the last time you tried to steal doesnt mean that theyve got your number; more likely, SB had AA when he fought back. Now hes got 92o, and he does NOT have a pair of balls. Hit him again, and keep

hitting him. 5. Know your image! While players dont adjust very well or very far or very effectively, they DO adjust. If youve picked up the pot with preflop bets and flop bets the last four hands in a row, fold your 98s in the CO this time. You are not a slave to your cards; understand your table image, understand that your opponents are getting pissed off at you, and understand that your folding equity falls every additional time you win a pot without showing your cards. After youve folded preflop three or four times in a row, you can go back to stealing and bullying, but give your opponents a tiny chance to catch their breaths between steals. 6. DO NOT SLOWPLAY. I cannot emphasize this enough. Your entire strategy here is a bluff that depends entirely on your playing your monsters and your junk identically. Theres always the temptation when you have AA preflop and catch A55 on the flop to suddenly change gears. Dont! With any luck, your opponent wont believe you, and will call all-in with QQ unimproved. Not only will you stack him, but youll also get even more respect the next time you play fast on a board of A55only this time youll have 98s.Fast play of big hands is CRUCIAL to the success of this strategy. Not only does it boost the shania of all your weak junk by elevating your folding equity, but it also gets paid off much more frequently than it would if you were only nut-peddling. To those of you who read this entire thread, I thank the both of you, and I hope this gave you some additional insight into the ins and outs of blind stealing. Give it a shot you may find it more lucrative than you ever imagined it could be. Geez, I've made some lengthy posts in the past, but this one was longer than Ghandi. Sorry about that. POOH-BAH Post: Hand Ranges
#5935516 - 05/24/06 01:27 PM

Plain and simple, poker is about putting your opponent on a hand and acting accordingly. You stand to benefit when you bet or raise hands that beat the majority of your opponents holdings at showdown (or will fold out their holdings that will beat you), and calling when the % of hands in his range that you beat is greater than the pot odds/equity you are getting. I am going to explain the dynamics of hand ranges. First, I will begin on Level One: This is when your opponent is only worrying about how strong his own hand is. Newbs, this is likely to be the game you're playing in. Against a level one thinker, you simply determine what hands your opponent considers to be good ones, and bet/ call or raise when you beat the majority of those hands ---- If they think 2nd pair or better is a "good" hand, than you simply bet or call when you have 2nd pair beat. There is one caveat, however. Keep in mind that often even for bad players, their range for calling a raise will be smaller than calling a bet or betting themselves. So when you are deciding to raise, remember that although a player thinks 2nd pair is good enough to bet with, they might not call a raise with less than top pair good kicker. So your raising range should lessen accordingly. On the next level, an opponent is trying to put you on a hand. It does not matter what your range really is at any point against these players, it only matters what they THINK your range is . Too many times I see someone ask a player questioning his bluff "Would you play AA that way." What they really should

be asking is "Does he THINK you would play AA that way." Of course, we always care about an opponents actual range. There are several theorems that can be derived from this concept. ---- 1. When your perceived range has widened, it is likely that villain's range will widen too. When your perceived range has narrowed, it is likely that villain's range will narrow as well. Since a player thinks you are betting with weaker hands when you have a wide range, he will be more inclined to call with weaker hands. Use this to your advantage. ----- 2. You want your range to be perceived as wide when you are betting for value, and you want your range to be perceived as narrow when you are bluffing Manipulating Your Perceived Range We can deceive our opponent by acting as they believe we would if we were weak when we are actually strong, and by acting as they think we would if we are strong when we are actually weak.It is important to note that different players have different schemas of what constitutes weak and strong play. 1. We may widen our range through several different courses of action. The most basic is playing the hand itself weakly. An example of this is betting when you flop TPTK, checking the turn, and betting the river after the flop gets checked through. Our opponent believes that because we have checked the turn, our hand can't be that good, so he will call the river with worse hands than he normally would. 2. Betting paired boards with trips against "Policeman." They think you would NEVER bet when you actually have trips, and will try to call you down or push you off your hand. Sometimes, acting overly strong may cause your opponent to think you are weak. 3. Table image can also affect how weak or strong an opponent perceives you in a given hand (and thus affect how wide or narrow their betting and calling range will be). After all, you're raising 1/2 the time and betting tons of flops, so you must be willing to dump your stack with garbage, right? Remember though, image isn't as prevalent as we sometimes think, and misconstruing what our opponent thinks of us is a good way to massively leak EV. 4. We may narrow our perceived range by showing continual aggression. We raise preflop, bet a 7 high board against a good player. They call or raise. We bet again on the turn. Now they are forced to think we hold either an overpair or AK (which may or may not bet true), and can call with considerably fewer hands than they could on the flop. 5. Or range narrows when we have been playing tightly. Remember this! Sometimes when an opponent keeps calling when we are very strong, it may be the case that he sees our range as very narrow, and can beat the hands he puts us on (caveat: sometimes they only put you on AK and will call down when no A or K flops). The danger of perceived range (or image). When you've been playing LAG, you assume people see your range as being very wide. So by this reasoning, you have to go to showdown alot more. It is very difficult to accurately assess what an opponent thinks of you, and harder still to think they will react based on how they feel. So you must be exceptionally good to play LAG because you are at the constant risk of calling and raising more than the opponents' range would dictate. You may think they are playing back when they just caught a really good hand. Or you may think they caught a good hand but are just playing back. ----The danger of playing TAG, on the other hand, is that opponents will be more likely to fold. When they don't fold, you're not really sure if they are pushing back because they think your range can't make it to showdown (like when you raise preflop and the flop comes 789 with a flush draw), or actually have your perceived range crushed. The former happens rarely, so it is not a major point of concern, and you get good hands much less frequently than bad ones, so you stand to make

fewer errors playing TAG. That's all for now. I considered third level thinking, but that would be hard to express and think it's beyond the scope of this single post. Please let me know if you think I have made an errors or have anything to add. If you don't have anything to add, please feel free to give this a healthy bump with a "NH" or something so I know this effort didn't go unappreciated Your Pooh-Bah, Merc Poob Post - LAG vs TAG
#5910509 - 05/22/06 03:34 PM

Poob Post. (part1) (Poob is easier to type than Pooh-Bah so I'm calling all Pooh-bahs Poobs from here on out) I'm also doing a trilogy cos I can't decide which topic to choose and I have 3 that I can write about so... TAG v LAG it seems to me that TAGS seems to be more than a little misunderstood on these here forums. Lets look at the terminology here forra second. TAG - Tight AGgressive. Widely touted as far and away the best way of playing at SSNL. It should also be the first style of play that you learn - it's the easiest to play for starters as you play less hands and cnsequently keep yourself out of trouble. TAG consists of 3 letters T A G. LAG - Loose AGgressive. Widely thought of as being the most profitable way to play poker at any level almost always without exception people that play LAG at $100NL and below are very bad at it. - it's a very difficult style to play well for any prolonged period much thinking is required and it takes a lot of energy and focus to play well. LAG consists of 3 letters L A G. Put these 2 groups of letters side by side and you'll notice only one difference. The first letter T or L. Both players are aggressive - one plays less hands than the other and that ought to be the ONLY difference between the two.

I see a lot of players saying "so-and-so villain is a TAG" - "they have TAG stats" when in fact most likely the villain in question isn't TAG at all they are more likely to be Tight Passive (Rocks) or wishy washy Weak/Tight players. TAG stats (at a 6max table) ought to look something I think along the lines of 25/15/3 over a decent sample size. 20/10/1 is most definitely in my book NOT TAG. Less preflop raise % than that and they aren't aggressive enough to qualify in my book as TAG - Less postflop aggression than that and they don't qualify either. There is so much more to TAG play than having a 20% vp$ip. Both TAG players and LAG players need to be aggressive in the hands they do play. LAG play lives or dies on the quality of the reads made by the player. A LAG by virtue of the fact that they more hands requires much more energy and effort to play than a TAG does - so they get tired faster. A tired player doesn't play nearly so well as a fresh alert player. Playing NL where one little mistake can cost you 2 hours of work it becomes so much more important to play good and not make silly mistakes. Everyone makes mistakes - pobodies nerfect but the more hands you play and the more reads you have to make then the bigger the chance you have of making a mistake. A TAG plays less pots so can play longer sessions - with greater levels of concentration than a LAG can. TAGs ought to be just as aggressive - and play just as fast as a LAG does - the only difference is that they play less hands and the hands they are playing are generally better than a LAGs hands because they choose better starting hands. The TAG has to make the same reads that the LAG does - altho they are a lttle easier to make as an observant opponent just isn't going to war with a TAG without a reasonable hand. A TAG can be much more comfortable laying down TPGK than a LAG can because the LAG is never quite sure if the villain is simply playing back because of their table image or because they have the goods this time. Conversely a TAG gives less action so is likely to get less action - a LAG will get their good hands paid off so much more often - balanced against that is the fact that a LAG continually has to make more and harder decisions and will often burn through money losing small pots that a TAG just wouldn't play. People seem attracted to LAG style because a LAG makes more money. I think a GOOD LAG will earn more than a good TAG ever will - they key word here being GOOD. simply because they play more hands. Playing LAG badly however IMO is the easiest fastest way to lose at poker. Playing LAG averagely will not make you as much as playing TAG, and LAG play is orders of magnitude harder than TAG. Good TAG play is difficult to learn and difficult to play well. It's easier than other styles but it's no cakewalk.

Having said all that you can't play only one style - you need to be able to play (and counter) both of these strategies if you want to be a successful winning player in the long run. in HOH1 Dan says"paradoxically you make the easiest money at a poker table playing in a style that is opposite to the style of your main game" which is very true - a TAG can bluff much more successfully than a LAG can as they bluff less frequently - a LAG can switch to TAG play and make a pile of easy money by getting their good hands paid off while unobservant opponents think that they are still bluffing often when in fact they are not. I think beginners would do well learning TAG play and learning it well. You get to be just as aggressive as the LAG does - just less often. Don't worry about moving into LAG until you can read hands at least moderately well. If you don't often have a good idea of what a villain holds by the time you get to the turn/river LAG is not for you just yet. TAG play should be the solid foundation of your game at SSNL. Once you can play it well and actually understand what TAG is all about then you can move on to different styles. Learn to stand up - then learn to walk - then run - then walk on your hands - then add backflips somersaults and cartwheels. At small stakes tables ABC TAG play makes a decent profit. At SSNL tables vs weak ooponents who call too often LAG is flawed. A LAG relies often on fold equity which at a small stakes table often isn't there. I think unless you are a modest winning player who has a good few thousand hands under their belt and have "graduated" to $100NL at a minimum then your main focus of poker learning ought to be TAG play. By all means take shots - try out new stuff - have a go at LAG play - experiment and above all have fun - this is a game we play after all - but nail the TAG stuff down first - focus most of your attention on being able to play TAG well. Once you have that accomplished, once you have laid good foundations it's so much easier to then move onto LAG or whatever other style you want to play. I think the single biggest mistake people make trying to play TAG is not being AG nearly enough. and it's postflop play and aggressiveness that is far and away more important than how tight/loose you are preflop. Learn when you can be aggressive - Learn how to focus the aggression at the right players at the right times - Learn to read hands well so you can tell when you are beat and should lay down your hand. I think all of this stuff is much more important than "LAGging it up" - I think players ought to first learn how to AG it up with good hands before trying the same thing with marginal hands. Small stakes tables should be where aspiring players learn the basics and teach themselves to become "slow grinders" slowly but surely making modest profits. At higher levels of SSNL $100+ LAG becomes more useful players pay more attention and your fold equiy is greater. Although there is a lot to be said for learning to play LAG at small stakes where you don't risk as much - making the mistakes at a low cost and then moving back to the $100NL+ level and finding LAG play a little easier cos you now have more Fold Equity. Just wait until you have TAG nailed down. Wait until you get good at the AG part of TAG. Wait until the foundations are set and ready - and then start building. Interestingly once you get as far as midstakes play basic ABC TAG is like painting a giant target on your head and is easily exploitable because it is so predictable but thats no excuse to catch a case of FPS at small stakes and thats a whole different

post topic... Carpal/Tunnel Post: Control

#5985067 - 05/28/06 05:50 PM

All men and women are born, live suffer and die; what distinguishes us one from another is our dreams, whether they be dreams about worldly or unworldly things, and what we do to make them come about... We do not choose to be born. We do not choose our parents. We do not choose our historical epoch, the country of our birth, or the immediate circumstances of our upbringing. We do not, most of us, choose to die; nor do we choose the time and conditions of our death. But within this realm of choicelessness, we do choose how we live. -Joseph Epstein (Essayist) Poker, as in life, is a game of choice. You make the correct decisions, and you will be rewarded over the long run. Make incorrect choices, and your bankroll will slowly bleed away. With poker, as in life, we have many choices, the most important choice is how we choose to take control of our game. Through my observation of poker players behavioral patterns, the dialogue on 2p2, a lot reading and personal experience, I strongly believe the path to success at the poker tables begins by control over your life, your emotions and complete control over the choices you make at the poker table. Control Control of your life I don't want to come off as too preachy or Doctor Phil-like here, but IMHO success at the poker tables over the long run correlates to healthy life choices. In my personal experience, I play the worst when there is unhealthy stress in my life. Whether this comes from tension with loved ones, overwork, or any number of things, stress affects my ability to make correct choices at the table. I found that making some very simple, basic changes in my routines affected my ability to think, and reason at the poker table.

Eating well Sleeping well Staying active And Maintaining healthy interpersonal relationships

Control of your emotions This has been, and still is, one of the most difficult challenges for me as my poker game progresses. When I tilt, I tilt A LOT. Though some players seem to have a zen like ability to deal with the variance inherent in the game, I (along with many others) do not have that mental fortitude and patience, though I am improving. My lack of control of my emotions has been very costly. Only recently have I slowly been improving my emotional control at the poker table.

IMO, tilt control/reduction begins with a strong emotional foundation. A healthy, positive attitude will often do wonders for your game. I am a classically trained cellist, and one of my professors was from Argentina. One day I brought my cello to a lesson, but we didn't work on the pieces I had memorized and prepared for my lesson, because she knew something was wrong. In her thick accent she told me, "You know, everyone in Argentina has a shrink, its good for you." Ultimately we spent the whole lesson discussing my personal life and how unrest at home and pent up aggression and anger were affecting my ability to perform. She suggested taking a vacation, I did, and came back refreshed with a new attitude on life and towards my instrument. Consequentially, I began making better decisions, my playing improved, and I went on to perform a concerto with the Wisconsin Chamber Orchestra and accepted the position of principal cellist in the Wisconsin Youth Symphony Orchestra. In short, control over your emotions will improve your decision making. Complete Control Actor Gary Collins once said, "We can try to avoid making choices by doing nothing, but even that is a decision." As he so succintly put it, every action we take is determined by a conscious choice. When you have complete control of your life and emotions, your ability to make better decisions at the poker table will increase exponentially. The ultimate goal of course, is to get to an almost transcendent state of decision-making at the card table where we can "see" our opponents cards and make perfect decisions according to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker. Though there is only so much we can control at the poker table, you have complete control over your decisions. By making good life choices, you will find that you are more observant at the poker table. You will feed off a new stream of information that will allow you to make more correct decisions. You will feel yourself controlling the table: changing gears appropriately, raising where you should raise, calling where you should call, and folding when you should fold, complete control. _______________________________________________________________ This post was not intended as a guide to success at the poker tables or in life. This is mostly just some of my random musings on Poker and Life. Though this post probably belongs in psychology, but SSNL is my home, and this is my 2500th post. Thank you for reading and allowing me to wax philosophic for a bit. SSNL has been a great home for me. SSNL is also constantly improving, with AJ as a mod now, Post content is improving and the signal to noise ratio is increasing. I look forward to the future of SSNL. Belated Carpal Tunnel Post - Reads (hijacked from Fallen Hero)
#6004357 - 05/30/06 02:32 PM

I posted this in another thread started by Fallen Hero, but after posting my original thoughts, i've developed a few others that I think are worthy of including, and therefore should be included....thus I'm copying my original and adding to it. Sorry if this causes you to read it twice. First rule of reads - You have to apply any reads you have to the context and history of the hand....does it make sense what the villain is doing?

Example from the other day. I pick up queens in the BB. 4 limps to me, including the SB. I raise it 8xbb. Folds to SB (who is TAG). SB goes all in for 50bb's. Does that make sense? Could he have possibly gone for a limp-reraise with AA or KK here with only the BB left to act who is OOP for the rest of the hand? The answer is clearly no. He put me on the squeeze play and assumed I had garbage. I didn't, I called, and I stacked his completely dominated QJ. Whenever an opponent makes a play, does it make sense in the context of the hand. A few really valuable reads to have on villains. Valuable read 1 - villains that overplay TPTK One of my villain's notes is "plays TPTK like the nuts, even with it's TP of 9's. Raised and called all in with A9 on a 7889 threeflush board." I've used that read to stack a particular villain at least 4 times. However, this has to done in the context of the hand. Conversely if you have a read that a loose passive opponent can't fold top pair, and the flop comes 7 high and he'd raised preflop with a relatively narrow raising range, you know he's not going crazy with TPTK...you know he's got an overpair. Valuable read 2 - Plays way too agressively when there is a flush draw on the board. These villains are great to flop big hands against in position because you never even have to bet or raise because you know they don't have the draw either. Example, you have pocket 7's in position. Villain raises, you call. Flop comes XX7 with 2 spades. Villain pots it, you call. Turn - blank, villain pushes, you call and stack his AA that he overplayed due to the draw-heavy board. Valuable Read 3 - total donkey calling station One of the best reads known to man. Do not semi-bluff these guys, do not threebet all in with a coin flip hand because they'll call, and you are only 50/50....try to catch your hand because they will call once you catch it too. They can't fold TP even on a straigthening flushing board. Value bet, value bet, value bet. I called a $20 turn bet against one of these guys into a $10 pot with a flush draw last week on a TJQK board. Rivered the flush, push overbet for $250 and he called with the ace hi straight. Valueable read 4 - minbets draws You've all seen these guys. They minbet into you and try to draw cheap, then they go ahead and call your big raise. I really have no idea what they are thinking...they know they can't pay full price to draw, which is why they bet small, but then they call a raise anyway. Punish these guys, and fold if any draws come home. Valuable read 5 - minraises small pockets/SC's/suited aces preflop. Some villains will typically minraise either small pockets, or sc's or suited aces preflop...they don't usually minraise all three, but lots of villains will minraise at least one of these. If you start getting action with a big hand on a ragged board or a board like 55K, you can generally figure they've got the trips with top kicker, or a set on a 852 board or something similar. It can save you money a lot of the time..or you can PUNISH them on a 55K board when you've got KK because you KNOW they've got A5.

Valuable read 6 - can't read boards and tell when he's counterfeited. Also, the converse "smart enough to know he just got counterfeited" These villains are great. Flop comes 228, and they have 89. You bet with Jacks and they call. Turn 9...you bet they raise, you reraise, and villain has top 2...can't fold right, even though TT+ kills them, which you represent. They don't realize your 2 pair beats them. This is a great read to have. Good LAGS typically realize this but still can't fold. Example from above 982 though, you bet and get raised...think you might be behind to 98 so you flat call. Turn comes a 2, and now villain checks.....now you've got him. Start value-betting, he'll probably call. Valuable read 7 - minbet-threebets monsters These are great too because they let you get away cheap. Villain leads into you with a minbet on a draw heavy board knowing you'll raise. You oblige, and now the threebets all in with a set...you easily dump your hand (provided you have this read). Villain doesn't realize he could have potted it and gotten a much bigger raise out of you but hey...his bad play is why you are here. Valueable read 8 - plays ALL draws agressively A read that an opponent plays big draws agressively doesn't really help you much other than including the big draw in his range when he's raising on a draw heavy board. A read that an opponent will play ANY draw agressively is however. Any ragged 2 flush board with him raising makes it easier to include the draw and not a set as his likely holdings. Same thing on connected flops like A78....makes it easier to put him on 9T or 56 and lets you know by his action if he's hit. A good way to determine if villains got a monster or not is to flat call his flop raise when OOP and donk into him on the turn. If he raises you again, it's generally a big hand. If he calls he's probably got the draw and that lets you play the river perfectly. Against a lot of these villains if you threebet the flop big you are likely to get raised all in and are then faced with a tough decision. I generally like to call their flop raise, and then disappoint them by donking a PSB on a blank turn, this destroys their odds and eliminates tough decisions on your part as very few of them have the guts to go all in at that point. Valuable Read 10 - makes weak C-bets with whiffed hands, makes big c-bets with hands that connected These villains are really easy to float against with nothing, or punish with big hands. If a villain makes a weak c-bet into me I'll generally raise if I think he'll fold right on the flop, or wait until the turn to raise as that's always more scary and almost always gets a fold. Conversely, if the villain makes a PSB and I have nothing, I know I can safely fold and won't try to float because I know he's got a hand. This is why it's so critical that you always make your cbets a standard size. Valuable read 11 - Does not consider pot size when determining the strength of a bet Some villains associate the size of the bet in relation to the stakes as a strong bet, rather than the size of the bet in relation to the pot. For example...some villains think their $10 bet into a $50 pot is strong because it's a big bet for $50NL. We as a group typically consider that a weak bet...but if the villain doesn't, beware.

Valuable Read 12 - villain ALWAYS raises in the BB if it's a headsup blind battle and the SB completes. This read makes you money in a number of ways. First you know not to complete with hands you want to play OOP to a raise, because you know you'll get one. And second you KNOW he's raising so you limp with TT+ and punish him when he does. After enough of these you can start limping and not expect a raise. Valuable read 13 - Villain reraises light and flatcalls with truly big hands. I found a TAG villain that religously reraises with marginal hands (AJ for example) but NEVER reraises with AA/KK. This makes him easy to play against because if he reraises you, you know your AK is good on an a K hi flop, because AA isn't in his reraise range. Valuable Read 14 - Calls pot-size bets on draws on the flop AND turn, then either goes for the checkraise when it hits (or donk bets it, depends on villain) Lots of villains (myself included) will call smallish PSB's on the flop with draws. Not as many will call on the turn. The ones that will call large turn bets are truly great buddies for life and worth following around. When you get called by one of these guys on the flop on a draw heavy board. You must make a PS turn bet, screw pot control, punish these donkies. Conversely, slow way down when the draw hits and consider folding. The other great thing about these guys if that they'll almost always go for a checkraise when they complete their draw, disappoint them by not letting them get the checkraise in. Marginal but sometimes valuable timing tells Assuming a villain normally acts in a certain period of time, sometimes something outside of that normal range can give you a tell. The most common one is the delayed call or bet. If a villain raised on the flop and then a flush card falls, and that villain takes an inordinately long period to act after the card hits, it's almost a certainty that he hit the flush. I can't tell you how many times I've seen this and it's been the flush. They are thinking that you'll associate their long thought period with weakness, but in reality it's strength. I generally insta-fold TP with this read and i'm almost always right. This read is subject to a villain that is only singletabling though. If it's against a multi-tabling tag it's not as reliable as he could be acting on another table, etc. Other Ramblings - Absent reads I'm typically very reluctant to call large river bets with good, but not unbeatable hands. I've gotten burned by this lately with things like K high flushes facing pushes and losing to the nut flush, things like that. Villains typically just don't bet rivers huge without the nuts or near nuts. Also beware of the full pot size bet or slight overbet if you checked the turn behind after a draw hit. This almost always signifies a whiffed turn-checkraise that the villain is trying to make up for. If a villain is capable of bluffing the river with missed draws and things of that nature, then calling is standard, but I have to have a read to make me do this and it has to be a very good read. Taking stealing the blinds to next level
#6073737 - 06/05/06 07:38 AM

OK, First, if you haven't already, read Pokey's Brilliant post on blind stealing, read it now.

Secondly, what I'm about to write is not for every1. Unlike blind stealing, you don't HAVE to do this to play optimal poker. I know that a lot of good players/respected posters do this already and some don't like it at all. OK, what you have to realise is quite how +EV blind stealing is. Check you BB/100 when blind stealing in PT. I'm sure that for most of you it's bigger than 60 PTBB/100, now that a hell of a lot of $$$$!!!! The reason for this is in a way, NLTH is a badly structured game in the way that when you play without antes, the blinds are at such a disadvantage, they have to post their blind without even seeing their hand. Now considering that a good TAG player will normally only play about 20% of their hands, this means that on the BB , they're losing 4BB every 5 hands, that they normally wouldn't put in. OK, so lets say you're on the button and MP limps to you. You have K 2 , what should you normally do? Well folding certainly doesn't look too bad. We've got a poor hand after all. What do I think you should do? RAISE THAT [censored]!!! Reasons: 1) now, yourblind steal doen't even look like a blind steal, so it's less likely the blinds will see it as that and play back at you. 2) It's scary the amount of times that I've seen people limp/fold preflop, even from CO. It kinda baffles me realy!! What kind of hand can they have? 3) What do you opponents limp with? This is a very important consideration. Normally, either trash/SC/PP. These hands miss the flop very often. So even if you do get called, they won't continue after your flop cbet very often. 4) When we take it down preflop, we now win 2.5BB. Thats over 100PTBB/100.....freakdaddy, we'll catch you yet 5) We'll get paid off more on our big hands. 6) Our oppponents are plays sub-optimally by open limping. So by raising, we are punishing that mistake. Next, lets think about what will happen after we make this play a few times. Well, either you're at a table of mega mega unobservant fish and you just keep raking in the money from their limps. Or maybe you're sitting at a table of just mega unobservant fish, and they realise what you're doing and they stop limping. Well, is this a good thing or a bad thing? I think in a way, its a VERY good thing. It means 1) they will be folding more, so you can steal the blinds more, which as we've already discussed is $$$$$$. 2) They will be raising more and will be out of their comfort zone. This means they will usually make even bigger mistakes than usual as they try to adjust Next, what hands should you be doing this with? After how many limpers? After what sort of limpers. IMO, you should do it with your normal blind stealing range, so SC, unsuited connectors, suited 1 gappers, Axs, Kxs, low PP etc etc. No. of limpers: normally 1 or 2, but sometimes more if conditions allow The type of limpers: the ones that like to fold, eihter preflop or 2 cbets.

Lastly, the problems with this: 1) If you do this too often, you'll find that you open up your game tooo much and start raising poor hands OOP too and get into trouble. 2) watch out for LRR 3) You'll be put in a lot more marginal situations post-flop, so you need to make sure your reasing skills are goot. IMO, playing a huge range of hands from the button after 0 or 1 (and even 2 limpers), raising them all and then from all other positions just play pairs/big aces/KQ is a simpleish but very profitable strategy Carpal Tunnel Post: My Take On Tilt
#5927809 - 05/23/06 09:41 PM

Tilt. If you've played poker for any amount of time you've experienced it. You flop top set with KK on a board of K58 rainbow. You lead, get raised by an obvious table-monkey, and cheer. You happily 3bet all-in and raise your fist triumphantly in the air as your push gets called. You already picture yourself stacking those chips (or virtual chips) in a huge pyramid. Turn card: 7 Ha, couldn't have helped the monkey. River card: 6 SHIP IT! But wait - why are all the checks being pushed to the monkey??? The table-monkey flips over his K9 for the runner-runner straight. It is like the 4th of July in your head, and your poor mouse doesn't even know what it's in for. You scream. You yell. "XXXX you, you XXXXing donkey XXXXX" is typed out into the chat box with such anger that the desk shakes with every keystroke. Steaming. Fuming. Pissed off at how this moron could go all-in with TPBK and a backdoor straight draw. You rebuy. Revenge is the only thing on your mind right. You want back the money you rightfully earned and Senior Donk took from you with his insane luck. Your mouse winces each time you click Fold Fold Fold. You get restless and frustrated by not receiving one playable hand. And then it comes - you get AJs in the cutoff. RAISE! Fold, fold. Gets to our friend, Table-Monkey - reraise.

WTF? No way. Not this time, pal. You push - still steaming. Instacall. You don't even remember the flop, turn or river. All you see is the AA flipped over and another 100BBs being shipped over to Senior Donk; who now has taken you for 200BBs. What happened??? One event sparked a total change in momentum of your entire session. You tilted. I wanted to make this (obscenely long) post about the two different kinds of tilt: Loser's Tilt and Winner's Tilt, and also briefly talk about ways to cope with and prevent tilting in general. First, is the most obvious one we've all dealt with - Loser's Tilt. This happens when an event takes place like listed above. You are an overwhelming favorite in a hand, and the villain catches a miracle card(s). Common reactions, obviously, are anger and disgust - both of which pave the path of you misplaying a future hand. You feel a need to win that money back as soon as possible, and in doing so, you set yourself up for more future losses. We do this by: opening up your preflop standards too much, raising/calling raises with marginal hands, not keeping position/stats/reads in mind during a hand, and becoming way too aggressive. I think we've all been in those situations are know them pretty well. The second form of tilt (that I didn't even THINK of until it was brought to my attention) is Winner's Tilt. You may think, "How can you tilt when you're winning??". Picture this - You are on a heater and playing well. You're getting hands and they are hitting hard. Next thing you know you're up 150BBs and life is g00t. You laugh at the meager plebs and look down on them from your mountain of chips. Then winner's tilt comes into play - but the scary thing about winner's tilt is that you don't even realize it! You find yourself playing marginal hands and pushing even the thinnest of edges because in your mind you're thinking, "Hey, I'm up big - I can afford to make this call. I'm running hot anyways, right?". So if you don't hit (don't worry, you were behind the whole time anyways), your stack starts to dwindle. But it doesn't faze you! You're still having a winning session, right? All is good, right??? No, by making these poor decisions and losing these "small" pots youre basically burning money. Getting a deep stack should allow you some opening up of your game, but not to somehow rationalize making -EV decisions. Now that we've looked at the two different forms of tilt, let's look at way to cope/deal with tilt and ways to prevent tilting in the first place. There are infinite ways to cope or deal with tilt. I believe it depends on the person as to what calms them down the best. In almost all cases, it involves doing something OTHER than playing poker. For a lot of people, taking a break from poker altogether for a little while is the only way. Watch some TV, play some video games, read a book, go outside, hang with friends, etc - just get your mind off the game. For others, reviewing their plays for the session, posting/reading on 2p2, or

reading their poker books help. The main goal in dealing with tilt is realizing that in the long run, the bad beats won't matter and that you'll come out on top more times than not. It's a numbers game! You get your money in as the favorite and overall you WILL make money. As SSNL players, we thrive on these people sucking out on us. Otherwise we'd be sitting at tables full of 4_2's, AJs, dbtiels, quarks, etc. - which I personally would hate. Everyone goes through the swings, as it is the nature of the beast. The sooner you can learn to roll with the punches, the better off your game will be. Your goal should be to be able to shrug off bad beats because you know that the short run is just the battle, not the war. This brings me to preventing tilt from happening in the first place. This part is more psychological, so I would love if some of the Psych regs could come in and shed some light on how to get in the proper mindset for poker. My practical suggestion for preventing tilt is being properly bankrolled. If you provide yourself a nice cushion to soften out the variance, then hopefully you will not flip out when you drop few buy-ins to bad beats. I've personally found that when I've got a nice BR for the level I'm playing on, my tilting has dropped dramatically. Well, I hope this wasn't TOO long and it provided something helpful. If you don't get anything from this thread, I hope that no one follows my lead and blows their entire BR in one night by tilting your face off and jumping into a game that you are severely underrolled for. <3 for SSNL. Bankroll and Moving up
#5911181 - 05/22/06 04:25 PM

Some general thoughts on moving up for a winning SSNL player: --The accepted wisdom is that you should have 20-40 full buy-ins for the level that you are playing at. I believe this is sound advice. This guideline should keep you from ever going broke. The higher the level, the higher the variance, the more buyins you need. You want to play optimally at all times, with bankroll NEVER being a consideration for an in-game decision. --Determine your base comfort level (bankroll and limit). Say you've been a NL50 player all year. You've been winning at an OK rate. You feel real comfortable, by personal experience, with a 22 buy-in bankroll, $1100. This is your base comfort level. It'll be different for everyone. --But, you want to move up. Do you wait til you have $2000-$2500 in the bankroll to make the move to NL100? NO. Start taking shots sooner. Say, when the bankroll hits $1500, move up and take a shot. If you lose, and find yourself back at $1100, go back to NL50, and grind away til $1500 again. Rinse, repeat. --Know that when you hit your base comfort level, you'll go back down to the level you are comfortable with. But, you don't need a full bankroll to take shots at moving up. --Make the move permanent when you are fully rolled for the next level. But, you

would be wise to think of yourself as being in a range when it comes to limits. Don't think of yourself as a NL100 player. Feel comfortable in a range NL50-NL200. Play where your instincts tell you to play. Playing real well. Play at the high end. Playing crappy at a bad time of the day, play on the low end. Etc. (TWP) --The mid and high guys will tell you that all SSNL is full of donks and fish and all levels are basically the same. Pffft. Don't kid yourself. Each level is more difficult than the one below. If you are beating NL50, NL100 will be more difficult. There's less fish and more skilled players as you move up. HOWEVER, the difference in play is not that great. If you are beating one level, you should be able to be a winning player at the next level. It just takes time to get acclimated. The Parable of the Street Vendor (tl;dr)
#5606187 - 04/27/06 02:06 PM

This is a completely true story that I just made up. There was this street vendor. He was extremely smart -- a savvy businessman, well aware of his revenues and costs, his profits and his results. One day while he was working, two tourists approached him. They were clearly out of their element, knowing nothing about the vending business. "I'd like a small drink," the first tourist said. "You are a total moron," the vendor said. "You have no CLUE. The small drink is only 10 cents cheaper than the big drink, but the big drink costs me 40 cents more to make. Only a complete idiot would buy the small drink, and every time you buy that one you just put money into my pocket, stupid." "Oh! Well, then I'll take the large drink," the tourist said. The vendor smiled -- he had proven to the first tourist how smart he was. "I'll have a hot dog," the second tourist replied. "Geez, what is it, dumb <censored> day today?? Do you know ANYTHING, imbecile? Do you realize that most stores sell hot dogs for 50 cents each? I'm going to charge you $2.50 because you're too dumb to know the difference. God, how could a retard like you even function in a modern society? GEEZ." "Hmmmm...well, if that's going to be your attitude, then never mind; I'll just leave," the second tourist said. As he watched the two tourists walk away, the vendor swelled with pride, because he knew that BOTH of the tourists now understood how clever he was. Get it in
#6106069 - 06/07/06 03:59 PM

[Note: I started writing this up, and then got busy. It's still probably too longwinded for many people to actually read it, but I thought the EV calculations in the middle were pretty enlightening. Cliff's notes: bet more] In another thread yesterday, 4_2_it said Quote:

When you flop a monster the first thing you should do is look at stack sizes and figure out what size bets on each street gets everything in the middle.

I've thought about this before, and I think about it sometimes during the hands, but not enough. I wrote this up on the fly, and hadn't really thought so explicitly about this stuff before, so please give me some feedback. The basic idea is that, when we flop a monster, we want to think about lines that will get as much of our stack in the middle as possible. Ideally, if there's money left to bet on the river, we want the pot to be bigger than our stack. The bigger the pot is, the easier it is for the villain to make a crying call. Let's think about two standard lines: One villain, normal stacks, hero raises in position pre-flop I play a lot of hands that are effectively like this. To make the numbers easy, let's say it's $100NL, 6-max and this happens: Preflop: UTG limps, Hero raises to $4, UTG calls, everyone else folds. Flop: ($10, 2 players, stacks $95). One bet per street, hero flops the nuts and wants to get all the money in. The two hands that made me think about this were hands where Hero had Ace-rag suited and flopped the nut flush. What are the lines? If there's only one bet per street, I think the standard 2+2 lines are pot-it-all-theway-baby and 3/4-on-the-flop-2/3-on-the-turn. pot-pot gives us $30 in the pot and $85 in our stack on the turn and $90 in the pot, $55 in our stack when we see the river, and we're asking villain to put in a little more than 1/2-pot on the river. 3/4-pot, 2/3-pot has us betting $7.50 on the flop, seeing the turn with $25 in the pot and $87.50 in our stacks, betting $17 on the turn and ending up at the river with $70 in our stack and $60 in the pot.

How much are they worth So, there's a *huge* difference between those two lines. Let's say, for instance, that villain has donk-certified calling hand against you, like TPTK. He'll probably call reasonable-sized bets, but be less likely to call an overbet. Let's see how he stacks up (ha!!!) against the two lines. Against the 3/4,2/3 line, let's say he'll always call the flop, call the turn 80% of the time, but only call the river overbet 50% of the time. We'll analyze things from the flop on. Then, our EV is 1.0*(10 + 7.5) + 0.8*(17 + 0.5*(70)) = $59. For the pot-pot line, let's say he'll always call the flop. Similarly, he'll always call the river if he gets there because there's so much money in the pot. What's our EV if he'll fold the turn more often, though? Let's say he folds the

turn a lot, like 50% of the time. Then our EV is 1.0*(10 + 10) + 0.5*(30 + 55) = $62.5. It turns out that he only has to call 46% of the time on the turn for the lines to have the same EV. What if he's a more typical calling-station kind of guy and calls more like 70% of the time on the turn? Then our EV is $80. That's 1/3 more money than we were making with the smaller bets. Intuitively, you can see that the villain will have to be a *lot* more likely to fold to the pot-pot line before we start using the 3/4,2/3 line. In practice, this means that I'm much more likely to go pot-pot on scary boards, either because I have the scary hand, or because I don't want villains drawing to it.

So, unless you think that villain is savvy enough to make some real adjustments based on the various lines you take, you should be betting quite a bit when you have a great hand. The key is thinking ahead on the early streets. We want to set things up so that, when the villain decides he'll call a 1/2-pot bet on the river, that 1/2-pot bet is a lot of money. Pots grow exponentially, so betting just a little more early on can make a big difference later on. With shorter stacks, you won't be able to make sizeable bets on all streets. As stacks get deeper, this concept gets more important. With big hands, I usually try to squeeze out as much value as I possibly can on the early streets, because it makes it that much easier to get more value on the later streets. Just so that you don't have to work it out on the fly, if there's $10 in the pot on the flop, pot-pot-pot bets will be bets of $10, $30 and $90, and we'll get about $130 of your stack in. That is, if it's going to go pot-pot-pot, you can get 13x the pre-flop money in. If it's going to go pot-pot-1/2pot, the bets will be $10, $30, $45, and we'll get $85 in, so you can get 8.5x the pre-flop money in. If it's going to go 3/4, 2/3, 1/2, the bets will be $7.5, $17, $30 and we'll get $54 in, so you can get about 5x the pre-flop money in that way. So, if we have full stacks and want to get it in, 3/4, 2/3, 1/2 isn't good enough. Why am I focusing on smaller bets on the river? Well, it's quite possible that, in situations like this, he'll have an OK hand with a draw that missed on the river. I want most of the money in before then so that he can make a crying call. More than one bet per street When we flop a monster, we can run into a lot of situations where the villain has a good draw. In that situation, it's likely that we can get more than one bet in per street. Then again, those extra bets are usually on the flop. A lot of that transfers pretty easily when you start thinking about b3b, cr, etc. The key is to think "if I bet this much, the pot will be that much on the next street and the stack sizes will be blah blah." If there's $10 in the pot, and it goes bet-raise on the flop, you might get $20 in on the flop. If it goes pot-call, pot-call after that, you'll put in $50 on the turn and $150 on the river, getting $220 of your stack in. So, when you're playing against someone who has a 2x stack, it's important to raise early on to set things up to get the stacks in later on. (We'll often want to bet less on the river, though).

Hmmn .. that sounds like the hand from the post I referred to earlier: Quote:

UTG ($26.81) MP ($30.50) CO ($9.75) Hero ($38.62) SB ($41.49) BB ($47.10) Preflop: Hero is Button with A , 2 . SB posts a blind of $0.10. 3 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75. Flop: ($2.10) 9 , Q , T (2 players) BB bets $1, Hero raises to $2, BB calls $1. Turn: ($6.10) 7 (2 players) BB bets $3.03, Hero raises to $7, BB calls $3.97. River: ($20.10) J BB checks.HERO? (2 players)

So, hero ends up with $30 in his stack and $20 in the pot, making it pretty hard to get the rest in. In this specific case, there was some history, and villain was pretty likely to think he was getting pushed around, so a push from the hero got a stubborn call. Just for fun, though, let's see how this would have played out with bigger bets: If hero makes about a pot-sized raise on the flop, it will look like Flop: ($2.10) 9 , Q , T (2 players) BB bets $1, Hero raises to $4, BB calls $3. Now, even if villain goes into check-call mode, Turn: ($10.10) 7 (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets to $10, BB calls $10. And we see the river with $30 in the pot and $23 in our stack. Analysis of a downswing
#5471087 - 04/17/06 10:27 PM

So, as many of you know, I went busto. I went there pretty hard. Seeing as (hopefully) I will be unbusto very soon, I have been looking through PT and identifying what factors contributed to me losing what ended up amounting to 28 buyins in total for 25nl--although not all were lost at 25nl. I am going to group the two biggest problems (within my control)together that

ravaged my bankroll. Hopefully this will help some of you identify some of your problems and help us all get better. TWO ISSUES: Tilt and a Top Pair Problem As in any downswing, I got sucked out on for my stack more than a couple times. Sometimes, I got sucked out on more than once in a session. Now, I prided myself on keeping composure and not tilting. I never did things like pushing All-In preflop with garbage, or calling raises with trash hands. I did find, however, that after losing a big pot... I overvalued marginal hands. This was most important part of getting better and understanding why I lost money. A typical progression was as follows: Following my standard guidelines for play, I raise a good hand, flop a good hand/draw, and lose my stack in what would be considered an acceptable way. Then, I pick up a top pair type hand. After flopping the top pair, I became FAR, FAR too willing to go to the felt with it. caveat- When someone raises your top pair on the turn, it's not good This became a subtle form of tilt. It isn't as though I simply played bad cards or made outrageous bets. I didn't. I made marginal to poor calls with marginal to poor made hands on the flop and turn. Another Problem: I never thought it could happen to me. As soon as you think your bankroll is completely safe, think again. As soon as you think you're a consistent winning player, think again. It's been said here many times that humility is the key to successful poker, and it's true. Playing online casually is roughly the same as playing online badly, in my opinion. Be Careful moving up limits!! I followed Fimbulwinter's guidelines for moving up, and tried 50NL both times I reached 500 dollars. Both times it was a mistake. I moved up, lost my stack with undersets twice and got outflushed once. This decimated both my roll and my confidence. Simply put, if your bankroll can't stand getting unlucky for as many as four buyins, you shouldn't play at that limit. Maybe its just my style, but I think moving up to 50NL shouldn't really take place until you have between 750 and 1000 in your roll. A few notes on preflop looseness: I played a lot of hands... definitely too many for full ring. Switching to 6-max was a great idea, I just wish I would've had more of a roll when I did. The truth is, marginal holdings and LAGish play at Small Stakes Full Ring is a losing preposition. It can be done, I am sure, but it would be damn, damn, damn difficult. My FR VPIP was around 28, my pfr at about 13. Those numbers are simply bad for full ring. This next comment is something I'd really like some discussion on: The key to solving the problem of being too loose is to emphasize position. Somebody once posted on here that folding AQ UTG in 6-max wouldn't really be leaving much money on the table, if any. I think they're right (I still raise AQ UTG 6max, but I certainly think twice about AJ now., and, after all... AQ is just a trumped up AJ ) So, I plan on tightening up SIGNIFICANTLY utg... and continuing to play my loose, raising style from LP.

This forum has helped me become far, far better than I was when I started, and I'm definitely still getting better. There's a long way to go. Hopefully I'll be back at the table soon. BTW, if anybody has a link to that thread, "Sooner or later you'll run worse than you ever thought was possible", I'd appreciate if you posted it. That thread sums up a lot of the way I felt about the last few months of poker. Variance is a bitch, but if you look closely enough, you'll see that we make bad plays all the time. Identifying the things you do poorly is the key to making yourself a better player. Hopefully I'm on the way. Sorry this was so long. PS: this is what a part of the alphabet would look like if Q and R were removed. PPS: If anybody has questions about the types of hands I ran into... i posted a lot of the ones that I felt might've been unavoidable situations. I didn't post that many of the ones where I horribly overvalued my hand, because I generally knew what I did wrong. If this will help you guys learn, I can post these too. A Non Pooh-bah Post
#5742621 - 05/08/06 10:27 PM

Ok Im not a pooh-bahnor ever likely to be one. You guys have entirely too much time on your hands. Still, Ive been at the forums for a while and Ive picked up a few things. Someday, I may even apply them. So here is my Non Pooh-Bah post with a topic I think is lost on the SS board at the moment. Ill invoke the name of Isura who brought up this point buried in a post sometime over the last month. Tight play is goot I think its a bit amusing to read a post that starts with Heros image is LAGy TAG in the midstakes forum no-less. They are polar opposites. You are Loose or Tight. While both can be good, there is really very little fold equity in SSNHLE IMO. If you made a move and your opponent folded, theres a great chance he had nothing. Im really seeing a lot of the high variance play that may allow you to rapidly advance up in levels and makes for a great 5000 hand run on the board these days. But I expect to see many of you back here at small stakes when you go Busto. Oh the message that tight is goot is here on the forum, its just surprisingly diluted at the moment. Tight is goot lesson 1 Dont bring a weak semibluff to the table when theres an A on the flop. This is an important point to rememberthe average donk plays Axo. Why semibluff the donks with an OESD or FD with when you know theyll call with their TP and better kicker? IMO an A on the flop means that FE can quickly approach 0. The semi-bluff in this situation can be EV IMO. You know the guy with AJo who you bust with your AK, hes calling you down with that same hand when you semi-bluff. So you push, they call and you lose 2 out 3 times. Not goot. So what do you bring on that flop if you want to push it - bring at least gut draw with you. Ive received this advice early on and over a long poker career, these extra suckouts can add up. Preferrably, bring a pair and FD, at least youre in a straight up gamboool and shred your tight table image with neutral equity just in time for your next premium pair.

Since youre all reading Mid and High boards as well, youll notice they advocate folds and fold PF more. Heres to seeing some more of this in SS once again. (I'll be shocked if I don't see Fold PF in response to this post) Next topic - not enough use of the word "goot" in posts these days. Oh yeah YMMV. Playing Out of Position -- PB Post
#6118959 - 06/08/06 03:07 PM

Playing Out of Position -- Introduction We are operating under the assumption that everyone knows the following: You ought to be playing many more hands from LP than from EP. Take a look at your winnings and total hand investments. The bulk should come from LP. If there is a balance, you are playing too many hands out of position, and it is likely costing you money. Think of position like many of us thought of hooking up back in college. You want to end up on top of the hot girl at the party. If you do, youll always get what you want, and youll usually finish ahead of her. Occasionally, though, you have to let her get on top; shell enjoy the position more, but that doesnt mean you cant get what you want. I guess this analogy stops at busting: youll always bust, and it takes forever to reload. Anyway, moving on Reads are Essential: Study Hands You Don't Play To be comfortable playing out of position, you must also be comfortable trusting your reads and your feel for flop textures. There are ways to make this easier on you. But before we get there There will be hands, and circumstances, in which the highest EV line is to muck a reasonably strong hand when you are out of position. It will be much easier to develop reads and handle your positional disadvantage as a session goes on; playing big pots OOP early in a session is generally a bad idea because you havent had the time to develop reads and a feel for the rhythm of the table. Lets say you raise A K UTG and get one caller, and you are both new to the table. You have no read on this player. Flop comes A 8 3

and you lead for 3/4 pot. Villain comes over the top for a PSR. He might certainly be wielding his position like a weapon, as many strong players do. But you will quickly be playing for your stack to find out if he flopped a set on you, and mucking your hand now is not a bankroll killer by any means. Make a note of his play. Watch how he handles position in future hands. Most importantly, do your best to pay attention to similar situations even when you are not in the hand. Players who like to multi-table often make the mistake of only paying attention to hands in which they are involved. Some of the best reads you can develop will come from studying these hands. If you notice a big pot that happened a hand or two ago while you were devoting your attention elsewhere, pull up the hand history if you can. Sit out for a few hands at your other tables. Party Poker in particular is

very generous about revealing a players hand at showdown; use that information to make detailed notes. If you are dealing with aggressive postflop players who have a positional advantage over you, it will benefit you to carefully watch their play as often as you can. Again, this does not go for every opponent; youll run into players who like to raise less often than Clear Channel likes to raise salaries in a union negotiation. Its the tougher players who will challenge you, but you will eventually be able to ascertain the times in which they are simply trying to intimidate you based on position. Having said this, sometimes the best advice is the simple "leave and wait for a better seat." But Im only doing this against a maniac, not a tough TAG or a good LAG who knows what position is. I want to beat those players at their own game. Eventually I wont mind if a strong, aggressive player thinks he can float and bully me. Ill adjust and there are multiple lines I can take to win pots from him. Here is an example from a hand that happened last weekend. I had the following notes on a player who is 21/12/3 in 500 hands: "Strong player, capable of making good laydowns. Seems to understand position and has pushed me out of several pots after I raised preflop. I wanted badly to call him and force him to show me a set, but I have backed down each time. Likes to raise flop Cbets, or float and raise turn. Worth watching some more." I was in MP with A Q , and I opened for $4. He called on the Button, and we were heads up to the flop. Flop came J 5 4 , and I led for $6. He raised to $18, a play he had used on me on my second orbit of the session. He would certainly make this play with a set, but he seemed to be raising with TP just as often. I thought it was possible I was behind to a JT suited, AJ kind of hand. I could have been behind a set or two pair, only occasionally an overpair, and often enough an unimproved PP. I decided it was, overall, much more likely that he had an unimproved pair, TP or air than a big hand like a set or overpair. In other words, he can not call a re-raise with much of his range, because by re-raising, I am telling him that I have a monster pair. If he beats that, he pushes, and I fold. But my re-raise knocks out his drawing hands and folds out many hands that beat me, along with changing the table dynamic that had previously convinced him I could be run over. We were both reasonably deep, with effective stacks $175, and I made it $58. He seemed to think for a while and folded, but he might very well have been playing it up. I immediately made a note of the hand, as I felt this opponent was perhaps less likely to raise my flop Cbet, and more likely to float or fold. Keep in mind that had I attempted this play early on, I would have had to do it with no information about this player and I would have been simply hoping I was not up against a set. The 25% Rule I tend to make an assumption about players that I am not sure is perfectly accurate, but it has seemed to help me. It is this, similar to Harringtons 10% chance of a bluff concept: If I have a strong enough sample size against an opponent I respect, and he has position on me, there is at least a 25% chance that any aggression he shows against me in a heads-up pot is based solely on his positional advantage. How did I come to that number? I spent a lot of time combing

through the PT database, checking out hands, and making my best guess. I also considered my own tendencies and my proclivity to use position like a hammer on a stubborn nail. Again, this is quite a nebulous number and concept, but I try to keep it in mind when I make a reasonably strong hand against a solid opponent who has position on me. Is 25% a huge number? It is not, but it brings a bluff, a float, or a semibluff into the equation a lot more often. I don't expect everyone to agree with the range, but I the concept has worked for me. I would also assert that this number is going to rise based on the stakes you play. Recalling my long-ago days of 25NL, I would guess its much lower. I dont use the number without a lot of hands or a solid read on a player, because at SSNL, most players tend to play their cards based on the strength of their hand. Its pretty darn straightforward. Were trying to improve our play against the strongest opponents and prepare our game for higher stakes. Handling Min-Raises: They Don't Always Mean Sets Heres a hand that I butchered like an overweight cow on Hamburger Day that indicates the power of raising in position. I was dealt A K and made my standard raise, one caller. He seemed solid, but I didn't have much history with him. Flop came A 7 6 . I led for $6, and he min-raised to $12. I called but feared a set immediately. Turn was a total brick, the 2 , I checked, and he checked. River was the T , I checked, he bet $30, and I called. He showed 9 8 for a straight. The min-raise froze me on the flop. I was convinced he would only min-raise for value with a set; instead I let him draw cheaply and I fell for the trap on the river. I still tend to think that the majority, or at least the plurality, of flop min-raises indicate a set. Even seemingly solid players and Ive seen plenty of 2p2ers do this min-raise their set on the flop because they want to build a pot and get value, but they dont want to lose their opponent. However, Ive come to find out that it can mean something else. Many players know that a min-raise is regarded with dread because of what it represents, and Ive run into plenty of players who use it to float or shut down their opponent. Ive run into opponents who will min-raise a Cbet with top pair or an unimproved PP. Its amazing how effective it can be against us, maligned as the min-raise is. So heres how I handle it: Every time I see a player min-raise a flop Cbet, I will make note of it. If that player shows his hand down, perfect. Its a bounty of information. But lets say I raise A K in EP and get one caller, and the flop comes K 8 3 or even T 8 3 . Ill make my Cbet, and if I get min-raised, Im coming over the top. If I lead for 6 and get raised to 12, Im making it 35. My opponents action is then going to tell me a lot. If they push I fold and make a note that I believe theyll min-raise sets. If they fold, I note that theyll try to take away the pot with a min-bet and will back down to further aggression. Their best play with a set is to call, cause that makes it very difficult for me on the turn, but thankfully most opponents at SSNL wont just call there with a set. Theyll push. Does it get expensive sometimes? Yes. But youll be surprised how often you can

take the pot and when you get pushed, its helpful to know how opponents play their monsters. Having a note on what a min-raise means is one of the most helpful pieces of info you can have in this game at this level. A Default Line for Handling AA or KK vs. Resistance Playing AA or KK against resistance when you are OOP can be dreadfully difficult harder than a group of teen boys at a Scarlett Johannson photo shoot. One of 2p2s best posters, Foxwoods Fiend, shared some of his thoughts on handling this spot and Ive built them into my default line. This is assuming the flop is at least somewhat innocuous. If Im raised with normal or deep stacks, Ill call and lead the turn for 2/3 pot. If I get called I have to check the river, and a call/fold will be reads-based. If I get raised again on the turn, Im gone. There are also times when I will muck AA or KK on the flop to one raise, but of course thats dependent on the read and opponent. I think folding to every raise when OOP is giving away too much value. Conclusions Being OOP bites like a vindictive girlfriend who finds out youve been cheating. Lots of teeth. Not generally much fun, unless youre into that kind of thing. So do yourself a favor and play the bulk of your hands in position. But dont roll over dead just because you have to act first. Trust your reads. Use check/raises occasionally. It just takes some adjustments to get your opponents off balance, and then theyll be dreading playing any pots with you at all. Pooh Bah Post : What matters, What doesn't
#6251739 - 06/19/06 07:47 PM

Well, I never made a "Poob" and I'm coming up on my Carpal Tunnel so I figured I better get this in first. I thought I'd drop some thoughts on what really matters in being a winning player. I've almost reached 100k hands at about 8 PTBB/100. I've struggled with questioning my game, downswings, taking breaks; my win rate would be a lot better if not for some stretches where I was way off my "A" game, so I know what it's like to be a break-even/losing player and where win rate really comes from. The first thing is to remember that the goal : being a profitable player, not making fancy moves, not doing what you're "supposed to", not being super-aggressive like you think you should be. Whatever it takes for you to be a winner, do that. Secondly, most of the things you need to be a winner are NOT strategy. Yes, read the forum, play hands, get practice, work on your game, but assuming you've got the basics (and trust me, any monkey can get the basics), strategy is probably not your problem. What Matters : 1. Being on your "A" game. Poker is not easy. One of the traps I think we all fall into is thinking that the fish are so bad, we can be on our B or C game and still be profitable. Maybe we can tilt a bit and try to play through it. The fact is, that's not true. Beating the rake is hard and you probably can't do it on your C game. Furthermore, being on your "A" game is like a habit - you get in the groove and can keep it up. Once you start playing your C game, you get used to that and before long you find you're playing your C game all the time. It's better to just take a

break when you're not on your A game and try to only play in that state. 2. Not "spewing" - just throwing away money. This isn't just bluffing, it's folding decent hands to tiny bets, folding monster hands because you imagine he has the nuts, etc. Anybody who's struggling with their game - I gaurantee that "spewing" in one way or another is a big part of it. If you really review your sessions you'll find hands where you just threw away a lot of money. Playing vanilla good poker and eliminating major "spew" will make a huge impact on your win rate. Note that "spew" can be subtle - not value betting top pair on the river against a calling station is a form of spew; you had an almost gauranteed big bet you could've made and you didn't. 3. Don't make the fish's mistakes correct. You should be playing most of your hands against terrible players if you're using good game & seat selection. These terrible players will do odd things, and you need to adjust properly. If you don't, you can make their mistakes into good plays. When you bluff a calling station, you've turned the fish into a better player than you. Most fishies have very high VPIP's, trying to get lucky on the flop. You punish them by usually having better hands and charging them to see flops. You turn them into experts if you pay them off when they hit. For example : Fish UTG raises A 6 to 2 BB You reraise K K to 12 BB folds to Fish who calls Flop 6 6 7 Fish checks You bet pot Fish pushes all in You call!!!! Oh no! you made the fishes -EV style of chasing flops into a profitable style. What Doesn't : 1. "Tough" Decisions. If you're playing a hand and you hit a really really tough spot and you just can't figure out what's the best move - it doesn't matter! If it's truly a tough decision, that means the EV of the choices is nearly the same! Yes, you might lose a huge pot because you made the wrong decision in this particular case, but if you're thinking about the range of hands it was actually EV neutral. These sort of "tough" decisions are fun to analyze because they're very close and complicated, but the fact is they have almost zero effect on your win rate. You'll see these some times when you post a hand and good/respected posters disagree about the best move. Maybe there is in fact one move that's better than others, but it's a very small EV difference. 2. Little details about your play. Maybe you're 15% vpip, maybe you're 30% vpip. Maybe you complete T7o in the SB, maybe you don't. Maybe you reraise a lot preflop, maybe you don't. Again, these could be slightly +EV or slightly -EV, but the fact is, they have almost zero effect on whether you're a big winner. What you should not do is play in a way you're not comfortable with. Don't complete hands in the SB because you think you should if you're not comfortable playing them postflop. Yes, maybe folding T9o in the SB is a small leak, but it's a tiny tiny leak and not worth worrying about. 3. Marginal situations. You will run into lots and lots of marginal situations. You

could fold almost every one of them and it wouldn't hurt your win rate that much. On the other hand, it's very easy to make a big mistake in a marginal situation, and that will hurt your win rate a lot!! This is sort of like a reverse implied odds situation. It's almost never bad to just be a wuss in these spots unless you do that too much. A lot of people are scared of being "weak" or "easy to run over", but that's not really a problem unless someone starts trying to do it, in which case you can try to trap them. (synopsis for the tl;dr crowd : stop worrying about trivial details that don't affect your win rate much; fix your big leaks and play solid) Switching from Limit to No-Limit
#6145720 - 06/10/06 10:33 PM

For the past few months, we've gotten a steady stream of players making the transition from limit hold'em to no-limit. Since the regime change that brought our new and mighty Dread Overlord AJ (don't blame me -- I voted for Kodos!), the newcomer's threads asking how to transition from limit to no-limit have all been insta-locked, and these poor schmoes aren't getting any feedback. So, with that in mind, I decided to write up a FAQ for those switching over from limit. With any luck, AJ will link to this thread whenever he cuts some newcomer off at the knees. 1. Books To Read. What are the best books to read when learning to play no-limit hold'em? - No Limit Hold 'Em: Theory and Practice, by David Sklansky and Ed Miller. I haven't read it yet, because it's so new that I only got my copy yesterday. It promises to be dyn-o-mite. It's probably not a good first book for a poker player, but if you're already a winning limit player, you should be fine starting with it. - Phil Gordon's Little Green Book. Concise, well written, well thought-out, comprehensive, and fantastic, this book is my favorite no-limit poker book. While it occasionally strays from the strict topic of cash-game no-limit, it's still just fantastic. You won't regret buying it. - Harrington on Hold'em, Volume I. While Dan Harrington's books are described as touted as being for tournament players, Volume I focuses on the earliest parts of the tournament, which actually plays out very similarly to how a cash game player should play the game. The advice isn't 100% picture perfect for a cash game player, but it's a terrific start. If you master nothing but the contents of this book you can play a winning game of small stakes no-limit poker. - The Psychology of Poker, by Alan Schoonmaker. Reading opponents, understanding their tendencies, knowing their habits and motivations: these are the true goals of the no-limit player. While the Psychology of Poker wasn't written with any one poker game in mind, its contents really apply more to the no-limit players than the limit players, since psychology is so darned important in our games. - The Theory of Poker, by David Sklansky. Considered by many to be the definitive work of advanced poker concepts, TOP is decidedly spun towards limit games, but the ideas can be applied to no-limit poker. Check out our study group threads about TOP to see how some of these concepts carry over to the small stakes no limit world. 2. Transition Threads Worth Reading. Here is an incomplete list of threads that have discussed issues involved with the transition from limit to no-limit:

- In this thread we discussed good "first steps" for a player transitioning from limit to no-limit. - Newcomer asks about pocket pairs, blind defense, protecting your hands, free cards, slowplaying, and nut-peddling here. - Clearing up a common misconception: why you do not want to chase your opponents off their hands (link). - A discussion of common limit concepts that are misapplied to no-limit can be found here. - Generic advice for switching from limit to no-limit can be found in this thread. - In this thread we were debating the relative merits of limit and no-limit games, along with stylistic differences between the two games. - The LAGs come out of the woodwork when we discuss why NL is so much more than nut-peddling in this thread. - In this thread from the way-back machine, some of the old crew discusses the subtler points of no-limit play. 3. LAG or TAG?? - ABC TAG described simply. - You prefer the Dark Side? Here's a guide for the aspiring LAG. - Baluga's Pooh-Bah post discusses advanced topics in LAG play -- mandatory reading if you want to LAG it up. - Another excellent thread takes up the cause of the TAG player -- a topic that often gets little airtime on these forums. Remember, LAG is flashy and fun, but TAG gets the job done. - Matrix's Pooh-Bah post compares TAG and LAG play, and does a terrific job of it. 4. Other Useful Topics. - Djoyce furnishes us with an outstanding list of useful tells at the NL tables in this thread. - The Parable of the Street Vendor demonstrates why you should always be nice to the fish. - Our Dark Lord AJ discusses bankroll issues here. Note that the general rule is that you need at least 15 full buyins (1500 big blinds) at a level to play no-limit safely; for a starting player, I'd recommend double that number while you get your feet wet. - No list of these threads would be complete without Fimbulwinter's legendary post on when to move up in stakes. This thread should be enough to get any limit player started at the no-limit games. Keep reading, keep responding in hand threads, keep posting your most puzzling threads, keep asking questions, and keep coming back. Theory Post: Reraised Blind Battles and Bluffing with Marginal Hands
#8821388 - 01/18/07 09:25 PM

Hi. I am a lapsed limit player trying to get back into poker and trying to get serious about learning NL, especially about examining a lot of the math underlying various situations. Hopefully I will have some dedication and be around the forum relatively frequently for a while. I have gotten a lot from lurking around here and in MSNL the last month or so, and so thought I would try to "give back" by sharing some calculations and thoughts that I have been working on. There was a recent post where players were wondering about calling 3-bets after raising in position. I think many of us realize that we cant call these bets if we are going to play weakly after the flop (only continue with a set or on really favorable boards) but the question of when to continue or bluff with marginal hands is tricky.

Since most 100 and 200NL opponents are nits when it comes to 3-betting preflop, these situations are only applicable selectively. But those spots are still important against the more agro preflop players. And with 3-betting frequencies increasing so much as stakes rise, this seems like one of the issues that SSNL players need to figure out in order to move up. So lets look at a situation (Stacks=100 units) in which you raise the button 3.5 units, the SB folds, the BB bumps to 11 units, and you call. So we have 22.5 units in the pot going to the flop. The flop comes down pretty dry, leaving you with a marginal holding, and the opponont of course c-bets. The rest of this post is going to look at the equity of bluffing on a relatively dry flop while manipulating three variables: (a) your hand AK or 55 for simplicitys sake (b) your opponents preflop 3-betting range and (c) your opponents range for calling a bluff if you raise. These equities can be then compared to folding, which is obviously 0 EV. Obviously, we also want to know the EV of calling given certain scenarios, but this post is so long just with bluffing that I will save that and maybe do it later if this post seems interesting to enough other posters. You Missed, but How Often Did Your Opponent? So lets imagine the flop comes down T73r and your opponent makes a standard continuation bet of 16 units (into 22.5). Is raising crazy here? Well how often did he actually hit that flop hard? Lets look at results for three preflop ranges with updated probabilities based on the flop cards. (These ranges and labels may not be accurate for many games but it captures to some degree three different idealtypical players as far as 3-betting. I did not include a simulation for a total nit, like TT+ AK+ because intuitively I am pretty sure you dont want to challenge this player post-flop with marginal holdings). Two simple observations to start: (a) Your opponents preflop range changes things dramatically but (b) generally speaking opponents will frequently have very little on a board like this.

I think the gut reaction of many players is to fold your whiffed overcards here for sure on the T73r flop and sometimes also your small pairs. But what if you raise? The EV of raising is going to depend on how much you are risking, his calling range and thus your fold equity (FE), and your pot equity (PE) against his calling range. A pot sized raise be a total risk of 70.5 units, which is awkward. So lets look at the equity of a couple different bluffs first a push for 89 units and then a small raise to 45 units. Pushing Has to be Crazy, Right?

Lets assume that you have AdKh and push and look at each of the preflop raising profiles based on whether they would call this push with only a very strong hand (first column in table above) or also a medium strength hand (second column in table above). (Note that now that we have AdKh, we have to discount the chance that he has an ace or a king in his hand so the probability of calling in each situation is slightly different although not very different than the probabilities in the table above). Your equity for each situation is going to be the sum of your FE and PE, which amounts to (1-x)(38.5) + (x)(111.5y + 89(1-y)), where x is the probability he calls and y is the probability you win against his range when called. Using pokerstove to get your PE if called by his range, here is your EV in units under those circumstances.

Wow! As long as the player is loose enough preflop but needs TPTK or better to stack off, pushing is just printing money when compared to folding. I think that a lot of good SSNL players, including myself, have adopted fairly laggy preflop styles but are not calling a push light here in the BB as a default play and have trouble figuring out when thats necessary. While AK is a hand that we would always be continuing to the flop with in these situations, an obvious implication/generalization is that other high-card hands become more playable if we can identify which flops to profitably bluff raise. So perhaps a fairly powerful general conclusion can be drawn from this specific circumstance: Take Home Point #1 Some of the most surprisingly exploitable players at SSNL are those who, in trying to improve and imitate the styles of known high-limit winners, have let their preflop aggression outpace their ability to counter post-flop aggression. Against this type of player, you can profit immensely by running them over on the right dry flops. This should expand your preflop calling range if youre really going to capitalize on these opportunities. Another interesting conclusion from this is how dramatically the EV of plays changes based on seemingly small adjustments to ranges. The only difference between the SLAG and the TAG preflop is a willingness to three-bet with AJ or KQs, and the only difference between the strong and medium calling ranges of these players is a willingness to stack off with 99 or 88. But if you push here, the difference in EV between being up against a SLAG/strong range versus a TAG/medium range is 23 units! This may say something interesting about the notion of changing gears. Lets pretend were the BB for a second. In some sense, changing gears is about establishing an image for your opponent of the state of the world being a given cell of the table above and then adjusting your play to make a different cell the de facto reality. Moving to an iterated situation or one in which you are trying to mix

strategies against a range obviously involves a lot more than the simple model presented here, but I think the table above does show how profitable it can be in some situations for the BB to shift gears and trap. Take Home Point #2: If your opponent is a thinking one and has likely become suspicious of your bluffing in these situations, then you need to track any changes in his 3-betting tendencies and be careful. Because if a SLAG/strong changes gears to a TAG/medium, then a must-capitalize +EV opportunity can quickly become a big EV mistake. What About Underpairs? So lets get back to the main discussion. What if, instead of overcards like AKo, you have a small pair like 55? Is raising still better than folding?

Things are not quite as rosy if you hold an underpair, since your equity against his calling range decreases dramatically the draw value of AKo is much preferable to having a pair. If you know with high probability your opponents 3-betting and push-calling ranges, then pushing may still be profitable. But notice how much it hurts if your assumptions are wrong. For instance, with AK we may not have a great grasp of the villains 3-betting range, but as long as we are relatively sure that he wont call a push with 99 or 88 then it is hard for us to make a big mistake. With 55, pushing into the nittier preflop three betters is going to be a big mistake even if they are never calling light. Take Home Point #3: If you are going to attempt to run the opponent over, consider not the strength of your hand currently but its equity against your opponents calling range. Basically, overcards can constitute a semi-semi-bluff. Are Small Raises Really Donk-Like? Ok, so bluff raising dry flops looks like something that needs to be added to the arsenal in some situations. But is pushing necessarily the best idea? Small raises are often derided but may be pretty effective in SSNL games. Lets consider a situation where you raise to 40 units and your opponent will still fold all the hands he folded to a push but will push all the hands he previously called, with you then folding to that push. What does your equity look like now? (Since you are folding to the push if it comes, having AK versus 55 only matters in so far as it slightly changes the probabilities of his holdings. These calcs assume AK.)

Behold the power of the donk raise! Of course, your opponent may be less likely to fold to this raise with a medium strength hand (and will not always push over, but thats the simulation). But I do think many SSNL players at least will fold hands like 88 or 99 here for 24 more units, feeling that calling commits them to the pot and being unsure what to do on the turn if they call and dont improve. If you are up against that type of player, then the donk raise in this spot is almost always better than folding no matter what you have. Also notice that, against the looser preflop 3-betters, the small raise is a winning play no matter what unless they are willing to expand their repushing range even more. The small raise also obviously has the advantage of lower variance. Take Home Point #4 Dont discount the power of the small bluff raise. If you can find a player that will still fold medium strength hands to a small raise or is loose enough with preflop three-bets, then a small raise on dry flops can be devastating. What About Other Flops? For the ranges examined here, the T73r flop is pretty generalizable to other flops with three relatively low cards, no flush draw, and few straight draws. I dont see why 962, 755, T83, etc would be much different. Even J high flops are pretty similar for players with the tighter ranges, since they wont have many more jacks than tens. Flops with As, Ks, and Qs are a different beast. Also, flops with flush draws that are low may also play differently. The chances of your opponent having the draw are actually very slim, so it shouldnt affect the strength of his hand that much. But we would assume that opponents are going to call raises lighter if there is a flush draw, since raising the FD in our position is so typical. Therefore, it probably makes sense to think of a T73ss flop to play roughly similar to the T73r one examined here, but that the opponent is significantly more likely to be calling with a range that includes medium-strength hands. Ok, so that got way too long. The major caveat I would add (other than the very real possibility that my math is wrong) is that naturally our overall strategy involves mixing our range and so looking at just one isolated situation should be taken with a grain of salt. Hope this provides some fodder for discussion. C/T post: Tips for multitabling
#6215112 - 06/16/06 01:09 PM

Tips for Multitabling One of the best parts of online poker is the ability to play pretty much as many tables as you can play at any given time. For some players, thats only 2 tables, for some maniacs, its <10. Anyone who has yet to multitable, I highly suggest doing it. It is a rewarding experience and can make your winrate skyrocket. Here are some tips that I have learned through the years about multitabling, which probably are general metagame tips as well. THE PREGAME Your physical area - In order to play effectively, first make sure that your surrounding physical area is in good condition. Keeping it clean is almost a must, as it will distract many. A mess on the floor, some cups next to the comp can provide a major distraction, one you cant afford. Chair - Get yourself a comfortable chair. Not too comfortable as to you will fall asleep, but not uncomfortable so that you its a distraction.

 Computer- The heart and soul of your operation. o Mouse- a good, dependable ergonomic mouse helps a lot o Monitor- I was never one to believe that a nice monitor made a difference, until I got one. A 20.1 LCD with 1600 x 1200 resolution is your best bet, so probably get either a Samsung 204B/T, or a Dell 2001 or 2007. Prefereably more than one o Internet- Make sure that your high speed modem is in no danger of a hardware disconnection o Headphones- Get a nice pair, one that will cancel out most background noise. SONY makes a nice pair for about 50, sold at major electronics chains. Other- I like to bring in a bottle to my office before I play, maybe more than one if its gonna be a long session. Also too, a chair of stool to put your feet on is nice. I have a padded armpad to rest my elbow on, and it makes a difference. I also have small post it notes around to remind myself of little things, such as Dont do stupid things, dont bluff call stations, etc. Also, I keep an outs chart around, just incase I ever forgot. Its also a good thing to have so you can memorize for B/M play. More Computer - While we outlined what to set up in terms of the physical area, lets talk about the computer itself. Software- The first thing I do when Im getting ready to play is open up the required software o Pokertracker- Get the auto import for your site rocking. o PokerAce HUD- MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THIS. With multitabling it helps a lot more than you think. Open it up. o iTunes (or other media player)- Make yourself a playlist, so you arent messing around with it during the games. Pick music that wont distract you, and will help you concentrate. Classical works, as does showtunes, or other weird music. Also too, close the following software o AIM- Distraction city o IE- 2p2 is fun, but not while playing As a general PSA, also make sure of the following o Your AV is working and updated, and run regularly o You have a copy of Microsoft defender, Spybot, Ad- aware, and crap cleaner. Run them about once a week. Being hijacked will dent your BR worse than you can imagine. Table Selection- If your site allows datamining, DATAMINE!. Open up the max tables, and then after about 10 mins, see which look the juiciest. I always look for the ones with the highest VPIP and lowest PFR, or if there appears to be a megafish. Sit or get on the list THE GAME So you are ready and set up. Here are some general pointers. Pay attention. If you find yourself timing out, drop a table. Dont think just because you are playing more tables its ok to pass up EV. Dont forget about stealing and LP raises. They are still important. TAKE NOTES. Try to minimize overlap Keep all distractions out When you find yourself playing sub optimally, take a break. It will help. Play good POST GAME Afterwards, analyze your session. Look for dumb bets, and messed bets. Make sure that adding the tables has helped you and not hurt you. If you find that you are doing well, but feel bored, try adding more tables. But only if it will help your win rate.

Best of luck to all Thanks 2+2 or How to Put It All Together and be a Winning Player
#6311903 - 06/24/06 02:55 PM

My poker career has been a long journey. I started out playing in an unorganized, blind-less home game and donating my paychecks online. After a 9 month hiatus from the game for personal reasons (moving/not having a home game/dating someone I spent a majority of my time with), I got the itch to play again. Since then, I've made an effort to improve at all times rather than assume I know how to play because I've read Super/System. I read any book I couldn't get my hands on, started lurking 2+2/SSNL, and most importantly started to manage my bankroll responsibly. When I first started reading here, I couldn't believe that some people were beating the game for 8, 10 or 12 PTBB/100 hands. Even when I became a consistently marginally winning player (3-4/100), I figured the big winners were liars or luckboxes. Slowly, but surely (and switching to six max) I started to see my winrate improve. I understood where these people were coming from. You COULD beat the game that bad. I should start by saying this: it isn't easy. When people say you should post hands, read SSNL, evaluate your play in PT, etc. they aren't kidding. Doing these things help build the fundamentals which make everything else such a breeze. It's comparable to a musician playing scales over and over or a basketball player taking jump shot after jump shot. Once you get the basics down, the advanced stuff starts to come to you piece by piece. I'm not going to try and tell you I know it all. I certainly don't. Like I said before, I'm trying to learn all the time. But these are some things I've noticed in my playing experiences that I think are important to my success. 1) Passion - Poker is a game. You can beat it with a good understanding of the fundamentals. Like most professions though, those who are truly passionate about what they're doing are the most successful. Michael Jordan didn't get to his level by shooting free throws on the weekends. Bill Gates didn't become successful by writing software in his free time. These people were/are passionate about what they were/are doing. This doesn't mean you have to play 8 hours a day or be thinking about poker 24/7 away from the table. But it does mean you should constantly be looking for ways to improve and never accept complacency especially when you first start out. 2) Bankroll management - I'm sure this sounds like a broken record to those of you who read this forum with any regularity, but it can't be said enough. If you are playing at a level you are uncomfortable at, it will be very hard to be successful. If you don't mind going bust and reloading, by all means play as high as you can afford. If you're scared of getting it all in and being sucked out, you're probably playing far too high. 3) Marginal situations - The more experience you acquire, the more able you will be to handle marginal situations. This can definitely add a BB to your winrate. However, as other posters have made note of, they aren't that important! If you have a hard time in marginal situations, you will save yourself money and frustration by keeping yourself out of them. Fold QJo on the button if everyone has

limped to you and you don't want to raise, but don't want to call. It may not be optimal (and I may get flamed for suggesting it), but when you enter a pot, you're potentially risking your whole stack. The marginal EV you gain playing the hand isn't worth the risk if you'll get stacked a bunch when you hit top pair. 4) Participate on the board! - Post hands. Reply in other hands. Sign up for a session review (I highly recommend this). Do something. The more you challenge yourself to critically think about the game, the easier decisions will come to you at the table. 5) Stay humble - I don't know how many times I started my own downswing by getting to cocky. Sure, we want to play as many hands against the fish as much as we can, but (and this goes with point 3) that doesn't mean we should be putting ourselves into super marginal positions. Playing ATo from UTG is trouble for most everyone. Don't let an upswing twist your head into thinking otherwise. These are the things that have led me to becoming a winning player. Finding Two Plus Two kickstarted all of it. Just the fact that you are here is a great start. Keep learning and don't be afraid to make mistakes! Also, if anyone would like to discuss hands, poker, life, politics, etc. AIM me at MikeyPatriot. Summary of the Voluntary Statistics Survey
#5892078 - 05/20/06 09:08 PM

Here is the summary of the Voluntary Statistics Survey. Beginning two months ago, I started gathering up data on how the "typical winning SSNL player" plays the game. The Poker Tracker data came pouring in, and this post is a glance at how we play. The reports did not include enough players at each individual gaming level to break them out by stakes, so I grouped together all the full-ring players and compared them to each other, and then I did the same thing for all the six-max players. The numbers are reported in the tables below. Key: Min: Smallest number reported 10%: Cutoff for the smallest 10% of reported numbers 25%: Cutoff for the smallest 25% of reported numbers Avg: Average of all reported numbers 75%: Cutoff for the largest 75% of reported numbers 90%: Cutoff for the largest 90% of reported numbers Max: Largest number reported StDev: Standard deviation of reported numbers Full ring players: 22 players with 591,692 hands collectively. Code: Full ring (all levels) Hands played 4,523 61,334 VPIP 10.59 VPIP from SB 21.39 Min 10% 25% 7,720 10,005 15,898 12.58 15.72 18.72 21.94 25.84 34.28 Avg 75% 22,757 90% Max 30,761 StDev 43,011

22.51 25.28 26.89 4.29 43.75 48.80 49.71 9.66

Folded SB to steal Folded BB to steal Att. to steal blinds Won $ WSF 21.39 PTBB/100 Went to SD 16.79 Won $ at SD 44.44 PFR 1.81 Flop aggro 1.41 Turn aggro 0.87 River aggro 1.05 Total aggro 1.18 Folded to River Bet Check-raise %

64.71 44.79 3.66 26.33 4.43 17.78 48.48 3.16 1.47 1.10 1.05 1.40 17.34 0.30

70.00 60.61 8.06 28.59 4.43 18.22 52.17 4.09 1.89 1.49 1.38 1.70 54.74 0.39

79.46 68.85 10.77 31.16 5.05 21.02 53.77 6.20 3.26 2.11 1.95 2.67 61.95 0.49

84.40 74.04 18.41 33.34 9.28 23.35 55.80 7.37 3.67 2.34 2.08 3.06 64.94 0.77

92.00 80.00 24.04 38.12 10.61 25.37 57.78 10.06 4.42 2.91 2.57 3.39 69.98 0.99

92.94 86.12 32.49 39.11 17.63 25.95 64.69 13.00 14.27 6.80 6.93 10.46 72.86 1.21

100.00 9.37 91.75 10.60 49.41 11.06 4.17 20.47 4.67 2.89 3.96 2.56 2.62 1.19 1.20 1.86 84.75 12.35 1.61 0.35

StDev/100 19.54 32.26 38.74 43.57 52.50 55.61 65.89 10.39 Hours/session0.40 0.70 0.89 1.15 1.31 1.73 1.97 0.38 VPIP Button PFR Button VPIP 1 PFR 1 VPIP 2 PFR 2 VPIP 3 PFR 3 VPIP 4 PFR 4 VPIP 5 PFR 5 VPIP 6 PFR 6 VPIP 7 PFR 7 VPIP BB PFR BB VPIP SB PFR SB 11.23 1.90 10.45 1.85 10.09 1.93 9.23 1.77 9.12 2.15 8.48 1.61 7.00 1.51 6.28 1.12 14.10 4.84 12.53 4.44 11.19 3.51 9.95 3.79 10.74 3.26 9.36 2.98 8.21 2.10 7.86 1.12 5.63 1.41 21.39 1.74 18.42 5.78 17.13 5.52 14.75 4.96 12.28 4.62 12.50 4.12 11.62 3.84 11.03 3.19 11.53 2.11 7.65 2.27 21.94 1.97 22.38 8.75 19.84 8.01 18.52 7.29 17.28 6.46 16.16 6.06 15.77 5.64 14.80 5.06 15.50 5.19 8.14 2.65 25.83 2.87 26.71 12.80 22.77 9.46 22.85 8.52 21.18 7.67 19.77 7.04 18.83 6.46 18.04 6.33 18.32 6.65 11.18 3.54 34.36 4.64 32.95 14.68 27.70 14.09 26.28 13.65 25.17 11.33 23.34 10.53 24.94 9.81 23.17 10.74 25.74 11.92 12.05 4.23 43.75 6.55 34.65 23.17 30.34 18.16 27.10 13.97 27.35 12.41 24.33 10.61 27.28 11.27 23.85 10.82 28.27 11.92 16.63 5.76 48.80 7.29 5.68 4.87 5.18 3.87 4.88 3.03 5.06 2.56 4.42 2.31 5.02 2.36 4.84 2.55 5.59 2.97 24.00 7.16 49.71 11.29

4.18 1.36 9.83 2.31

6-max players: 34 players with 507,146 hands collectively. Code: Six max(all levels) Hands played 4,848 8,844 VPIP 16.87 VPIP from SB 20.71 Folded SB to steal Folded BB to steal Min 10% 25% Avg 7,172 9,161 15,848 18.39 24.10 68.45 58.86 21.72 30.35 71.94 63.19 25.63 39.10 78.37 66.32 29.63 48.55 82.65 72.43 75% 90% 22,613 33.44 53.37 86.87 78.40 38.33 57.66 89.55 80.89 Max StDev 29,412 40,051 5.50 10.85 92.65 5.94 86.47 7.39

Att. to steal blinds Won $ WSF 29.90 PTBB/100 Went to SD 17.49 Won $ at SD 45.38 PFR 2.65 Flop aggro 1.24 Turn aggro 1.44 River aggro 1.26 Total aggro 1.49 Folded to River Bet Check-raise %

4.11 33.77 5.47 18.50 46.93 6.89 1.77 1.60 1.30 1.83 61.79 0.21

14.12 34.89 5.49 20.92 49.87 9.04 3.20 1.75 1.40 2.37 62.48 0.28

17.15 37.09 7.34 22.33 52.00 11.29 4.00 2.49 2.22 3.10 64.63 0.41

23.35 39.73 10.06 23.72 54.68 15.00 4.91 3.04 2.75 3.82 68.03 0.69

30.19 42.49 11.49 25.08 55.93 15.60 6.33 3.41 3.94 4.39 72.00 1.05

37.41 43.35 17.94 29.46 56.90 21.22 7.12 5.34 5.15 4.65 75.29 1.33

38.95 9.13 3.03 20.27 3.88 2.42 3.16 3.82 1.46 0.85 1.00 0.89 78.21 4.59 1.36 0.37

StDev/100 32.65 38.90 41.40 48.64 55.00 67.77 74.98 11.21 Hours/session0.38 0.54 0.74 1.08 1.39 1.73 2.79 0.50 VPIP Button PFR Button VPIP 1 PFR 1 VPIP 2 PFR 2 VPIP 3 PFR 3 VPIP BB PFR BB VPIP SB PFR SB 17.63 3.81 16.18 2.32 13.55 2.11 11.60 2.39 22.58 9.88 18.28 10.11 14.29 7.03 11.92 6.12 9.73 0.07 20.71 2.68 24.60 13.03 22.35 11.49 16.59 9.00 13.63 7.40 10.79 2.75 24.00 3.74 29.57 16.82 25.20 14.99 21.07 11.28 19.14 9.20 12.68 3.86 30.26 4.90 33.04 21.18 29.11 20.00 24.00 13.73 23.15 10.77 15.15 6.49 37.91 9.45 37.56 26.07 31.13 21.04 29.09 17.48 27.08 13.00 17.37 7.46 48.00 11.00 42.28 28.33 35.51 21.68 31.65 18.48 32.34 19.50 19.82 10.23 53.37 13.20 5.86 6.08 4.87 4.69 5.13 3.73 5.64 3.31 30.69 19.18 57.66 27.09

4.27 3.29 10.76 4.77

Pooh-Bah Post: Poker, Options, Markets, People

#6407260 - 07/03/06 10:35 AM

Post 1600 is here, and I feel like a 16-year-old who's just been given a set of car keys and a bottle of whiskey.... Pooh-Bah Post: Poker, Options, Markets, People This is long, and more theoretical, but I hope you will find it thought-provoking. The point is to approach some poker and investing theory from a common direction, hopefully look at some poker situations in a new light, and get a better appreciation for why some things we know about hold'em are true more broadly. You've probably seen a graph of EV vs. all of the starting hold'em hands.

This is a limit chart, but the important point applies for either game: except for heads-up, the bulk of starting hands are losers. For the small number of profitable preflop hands, the EV ramps up steeply on the right, all the way up to our friend American Airlines. When You Play Hold'em, You're Trading Options Think of sitting at a poker table as an investment. You are investing in a look at two cards, and the expected return for that asset looks like the chart above. But that isn't the return profile for a standard investment. It's the profile for a call option. (Starting hands are just the beginning. The structure of the game, with multiple streets for betting, substantial stack depth relative to the blinds, and of course the fact that only the best hand wins the pot, embeds even more option-like return into the game of hold'em.) The key characteristic is that the return is very nonlinear. That's why you don't think "average hand, average bet" in hold'em. N00bs will enter the game with linear thinking, and we all know that's a huge loser. The nonlinearity of returns is part of what makes hold'em tricky. When you play hold'em, you're trading options, and options markets can be slippery. If you're going to spend time trading options at the poker table, there are ideas worth keeping in mind.

Bettors/Raisers Make The Market, Callers Take The Market An "EBay August 35 call" is the right to buy a share of EBay at a fixed price of $35, before the end of August. The June 27 closing price of such a call option was $0.25. That's a limping hand. EBay traded at about $29 that day, so if the price doesn't move in the next couple of months, your investment in the Aug 35 call expires worthless. But if the market deals you Aces, and EBay goes to $60 by late August, you can still buy it for $35, and you're going to stack someone for twenty-five bucks a share, on an initial investment of (about) a quarter. Sound familiar? A close of $0.25 doesn't mean you can buy or sell for that price; that's just the price of the last recorded trade. It's not a market until you have both a bid and an offer. A bid is a price at which someone will buy; an offer is a price at which someone will sell, and the spread is the difference between the two. Amarket maker stands in the market with both a bid and an offer: "EBay Aug 35s, twentyfive/thirty". He'll buy one from you for $0.25, or sell one to you for $0.30. Market makers are beautiful people; they'll trade with you when no one else wants to. The only trick is, they set the price. You just say yes or no. Is the market maker hoping the price of EBay will go up, or down? Neither. A market maker doesn't make his living from the asset changing price. He makes it on the spread. He doesn't care if you buy from him, or sell to him, he's happy to do either, because in the long run, if he makes his market well, his buys and sells will net out, and he'll show a tidy profit on the spread. At which you point you ask, "Am I reading the right forum? What does this have to do with poker?" (1) At the poker table, if you are betting or raising, you are the market maker. You are putting your capital at risk, and setting your opponent's price to play, and your opponent gets to choose whether he wants to take the price you've set. The only time when the market is preset is at the deal, when the price to play is the big blind. (2) Market makers take extra care to make bids and offers they can live with, whichever side the customer takes. In hold'em, this notion applies best to pricing when you think you have best hand against a draw: make sure that when you set your price, you'll be equally happy to see a fold, or a call. (This doesn't extend to bluffs; there you're counting on the next one....) (3) Market makers make prices such that they expect their counterparties' actions to net out over the long run. When you make your price, you must also have a good handle on the long-run likely mix of responses to your price (x% will call [buy], y% will fold [sell], still z% will raise [analogies only go so far...]). If you only ever get buyers, or sellers -- if they always call your bluffs, or fold to your c-bets -it's not your opponents' fault; you need to adjust what is probably a poor bid/offer. Finally, that long run mix of responses should (a) make you money in net, and (b) very importantly, include a comfortable margin for error. (4) Given the return chart shown above, making a market in options with a comfortable margin for error can be extremely challenging, in part because of its nonlinearity. So if you are not confident of being able to make a good market for yourself, don't make it. In addition to a bid and offer, traders also post the size they are willing to do at the bid and at the offer. And when the financial markets get extra rocky, traders have no problem reducing size, or moving to the sidelines entirely, and waiting for a better spot. If you don't know what your price should be,

you can always reduce your size or just stand aside: check to your opponent, be a market taker, and see if someone will make a bad market that you can take advantage of. (5) Some people make good money investing as market takers, that is, the ones who effectively pay the market maker's spread. With knowledge, discipline, and a lot of patience, a market taker can overcome that spread, and make a nice living. (Warren Buffet is, in many ways, often a market taker.) There aren't many such people, but they do exist. In the end though, a good market maker is going to make the serious money. You can make a decent return buying options, but the guys making that market on NASDAQ make an astounding return on their invested time and capital. (6) Knowing this, should you always be the market maker at the poker table? No, not necessarily. In the financial markets, there is competition among market makers: if one makes you a terrible bid/offer, another will edge him out with a better one. But at the poker table, the market is made, and taken, one price at a time, and often 1-on-1. As a result, makers and takers at the poker table are capable of hugely benefiting from opponents' collossal mistakes. The "raise or fold" credo has value against calling stations, but you can also think of a maniac as a bad market maker, and you can make great money just taking his bad prices when he makes them. (7) That said, a market taker (caller) is going to make money more slowly generally. Market taking is the "lie in wait" approach, and it's just a slower, lower variance gig. A market maker (bettor/raiser) is going to profit (or lose) more quickly, in part because he is always at the center of "price discovery". Market making walks a finer edge, and calls for finer judgement and skill. And it likewise rewards that skill, and punishes mistakes, in substantially greater measure. So, are you ready to be a market maker, to call less and bet and raise more? When you're making your prices, keep in mind.... More Players, Deeper Stacks => Steeper Curve, Harder To Price Heads up, 10BB in front, let's face it, JJ plays like the nuts. It is AA as far as you're concerned. But full ring with full stacks, the two hands are hugely different. The more players and the deeper the stacks, the more you have to pay attention to the steepness at the end of the EV curve, and the differential between the very best, and a good 2nd best. Of course this also applies postflop. You hold 76s, flop a baby flush. Shorthanded/shallow, just get it in the middle. But full ring and deep, if you see heavy action on this flop, there is a very real chance that you will turn out a loser. Whereas in the short/shallow game you play this hand like the nuts, in a full/deep game, the value differential between your baby flush and the *actual* nuts is substantial. That's why we play the hands we do with family pots and deep stacks: Axs, SCs and PPs each have a good shot to make the stone cold nuts at the river, and against a second-best hand, that is huge. It's also why the really good players insist that deep-stack poker is where it's at, and why playing short can be a good idea for beginners and those moving up to a bigger game. Greater Volatility => More Valuable The Option Also fairly obvious (it's one of the concepts in NLTAP), but the set value of 77

preflop at a table full of maniacs is going to be greater than at a table full of rocks. Volatility at the maniac table is going to be much higher: when you hit, you know they'll all throw their money at you. And the higher the volatility of return, the more valuable the option. N00b Trap 1: Humans Overweight Small Probabilities So now you're thinking, hey, that's it, if I can get in a limp at the maniac table, I'll do it with any two! I have the potential "option" to bust everyone at the table if I hit my hand! Bombs away with 96o from the SB! Well that's partly true, but.... But the other reason options are tricky to price, apart from the nonlinearity of return, is that as human beings, we are absolutely terrible at doing option math with our guts. Why do n00bs limp any two? Why do people play the lottery, or keno, or bet the Pick Six at the racetrack? Why would anyone pay $0.30 for a huge longshot deep-out-of-the-money EBay call when the market maker is only offering to buy it back for 5/6 that price? (17%: now that's a rake.) The answer has been shown in many studies on behavioral decision-making. It is that our hearts tell us a much greater probability of that rare event happening than any hard numbers would ever support. Human beings consistently overestimate the likelihood of very small probability events. It's why we play those longshots at bad prices. It's why the deep-out-of-the-money calls usually have the widest spreads on the market; people buy them on gut, not on the math. So if you're going to make a market, be aware: This innate human trait of getting the math wrong with small numbers is true of your opponent, and it is also true of YOU. Conquering the problem in yourself is simple. Do the math before you decide to take up a low-probability, high-payoff strategy. (Can you say "5/10 Rule"?) N00b Trap 2: Humans Are Naturally Overconfident A related natural human bias is overconfidence. True experiment: Professor asks an auditorium full of students, about 800 people, the following: "Just before the breakup of AT&T in 1984, how many total employees did the company have? You probably don't know, so I want you to guess a range. I want you to pick out a high guess and a low guess, such that you are ninety percent confident that the true number is in your range." Students write, each picking ANY range he/she wants, feeling 90% confident he/she will capture the true number. Professor reveals the true number. "How many of you had that in your range?" How many hands go up? You would kind of expect about 90%, or 720, right? In fact, it's about half. Right, 50% of the "90% confident" missed the boat completely. Talk about overconfidence! Professor asks a similar question: "How many McDonald's restaurants are there, worldwide?" Similar structure, similar results. 50% hit rate. Human beings are naturally overconfident in their own guesses and estimations. It's why the hold'em n00b thinks his TPTK is a killer hand. It's partly why we make crying calls, when we "know" we're beat. But there is a bright side: for most people, continued play of the game, IF you're tuned to your past errors, will help recalibrate your internal estimating mechanism. Weathermen estimating the "chance of precipitation" are notoriously bad when

their estimates are compared with actual outcomes, until they are fed back their own historical results. And then they start to adjust and get it right. (What's the real reason we all worship PokerTracker?) Your first guesses as to who was going to win a hand were probably el stinko, and not in your favor, thanks to your inborn human biases. But the longer you play, as long as you are learning from your mistakes, then the better you get at it. That's it. If you read all this, thanks. I hope it helped you appreciate some hold'em truths for being broader and deeper than just the game itself. And I hope when you're out there "making the market," this will give you a few helpful constructs for arriving at your price. (If you want the answers to the "confidence interval" questions, pick your own range, and PM me.) the so-called Baluga Theorem (kinda long)
#6605819 - 07/19/06 09:17 PM

no, I didn't name it after myself. Somebody suggested it and I guess it caught on. I've gotten a few questions about it and there have been some threads recently, so I thought I'd clarify some examples where I think it applies and some where it doesn't. You (100bb) have A K in MP at a 6max game. UTG (100bb) limps, you raise to 5xBB, Button (100bb) calls, UTG calls. Three to the flop (pot ~15bb), which is: A 4 6

UTG checks, you lead out for 12bb, Button folds, UTG calls. On to the turn (pot~ 36bb) 8 UTG checks, you bet 25bb, he raises all-in. We fold. One pair is not good here. A draw does this about never. We have to bet this turn because we can't let spades draw, and we need value from worse A's, but now that he raises, we can rule out worse A's and draws. However, to slightly alter Isura's example, lets say we have A as before and the flop (pot~15bb) comes down: K 2 2 A , same pf action

UTG checks, we bet 12bb, Button calls, UTG folds. the turn (pot ~36bb) comes: J We bet 25bb, Button raises all in.

Here, I think we should call. We are very likely to see KJ here, as well as AK or KQ. Occassionally we see a random 2, but we are ahead of his range more often than not. Basically, the whole point of the "Baluga theorem", as I see it, is to strongly reevaluate one-pair hands facing a turn raise. A few notes to rememberturn checkraises are more frightening than turn raises big turn raises are rarely pure draws-- occassionally they will be draws that pick up a pair, or pairs that pick up draws, but most of the time you can count on a strong made hand. when playing against a goood TAG, particularly a 2p2er, most especially me, raising the turn with a draw is a powerful (but risky) play. Some sound advice: Noise/content ratio (very long)
#6669542 - 07/25/06 10:53 AM

After a couple of months' studies of this lovely game that makes the players flock around forums like these, every now and again, I have heard someone stating something about the noise/content ratio. In my opinion, this is a concept everyone seeking solid advice must be aware of. Many players who have played for several years by now have stated that a typical noise to content relation would be about 90% noise vs 10% real content. At first I thought these guys must be exaggerating. The noise can't be all that high. Can it? To give a quick answer: Yes, it can. And it is true. So be aware of that when you get more and more into "serious studies" of this game. The remaining problem is, how to distinguish between noise and good advice. I mean, if we knew which replies are good vs which are just plain crap, we wouldn't need to ask any questions in the first place. I've come up with a general guideline to distinguish between the two. The things to keep in mind are: 1) The majority of players are losing players. That is a fact. People may argue whether that means that 70%, 90% or even 99% are losing players, what remains is that most players are. How does this affect us? Simply put: Even though the proportion of losing players on message boards may be lower than in general (after all, they are trying to improve their game, thus they should on average be somewhat better than the average player not studying the game) there still are many awful players roaming these boards. Keep that in mind. 2) High post-counts are not a sign of quality posters. Neither does it mean that someone with many posts necessarily is a bad player. Keep that in mind. Just because some guy has a Pooh-Bah title doesn't automatically mean his advice is better than the guy's who is making his 20th post. In fact, it is a lot easier to blast out many, many posts with absolutely no real content than writing many quality posts. My favourite sorts are those posters with 15 gazillion posts, but whenever you see any of their posts it's a one-liner in the form of "Push, obv." or "Worst. Call. Ever."

3) Posters trying hard to use cool-lingo (teh more teh better omfglolz0rs!!!111!!) in every single post often give horrible advice. In most cases, those specimen are around only to boost their ego rather than give proper advice. They'd rather be the cocky little dog barking than the doberman having the cocky little dogs for breakfast. The only thing they're interested in is virtual cock measuring. 4) Players regularly belittling or even insulting other players/posters often give horrible advice. This is typical behavior for "experts" labeling every single opponent at their table a donk/idiot/retard. If you don't take your opponents seriously, it is a sure sign that you think you're the best player around anyway. So why improve your game? It's a lot more fun to go out there and tell the world how great you are. And while at it, they can engage in pissing contests. Steer away from those. 5) Posts with long elaborate descriptions of villain's stats and behavior only rarely make a worthwhile read. This is true for independent reasons. If someone is making those long explanations about villain's typical range, how he played a few hands before that, what he had for breakfast, and so on, chances are, that this poster is trying to justify a bad play. He knows calling that all-in sucked, but by putting his villain on a range that will make his call fit is his main concern. Another reason is, that for the few posts where that type of information is valid (thus the poster is not trying to justify a mistake), very often the situation is far too specific to be worth studying. You'll rarely run into that specific situation. 6) If the poster can't explain to you what his reasoning is, there often is no good reason. Some concepts may be very hard to wrap your head around. Nevertheless, someone giving advice should know exactly why he is giving that specific piece of advice. If he can't explain why, you can't understand why. If you don't understand a concept, you're in danger of misapplying it. Ignore those posts. 7) Aware of posters stating their BB/100 ratios to gain more credibility. If anyone opens a post with a line like "I've been playing 1000NL 6max for two years, winning 12BB/100 over 120k hands..." don't take that as sure sign that this person is knowing what he's talking about. It is easy to be a winning player on a message board. Being one at the table is a lot more difficult. There are many other signs that indicate that certain posts just have low quality, but by looking out for these major indicators, you should be able to steer away from the broad majority of the noise on these boards. Don't waste your time reading useless information. It's a garbage in - garbage out situation. You can't expect to become a better player by studying bad advice. Difficult Decisions, Bad Designs (Pooh-Bah?)
#6454057 - 07/07/06 11:33 AM

[I guess this is a pooh-bah post, but since I've been a CT for ever, maybe it's just the random ramblings of an old man...] Difficult Decisions, Misplayed Earlier Streets In my other life (the one where I get a paycheck) I'm a software engineer. I've been programming for a long while. I've built big systems from the ground up, maintained other systems, and helped on all kinds of stuff. For a long time my professional interest has been the reliability & design of code and diagnosing errors in production software. This is something I've thought a lot about over the years. (This is leading somewhere, I promise.)

Here's one thing I believe to be usually true about software in complex systems. If a piece of code is difficult to write, it's probably because the surrounding system is either badly designed or has defects in it. I'm amazed how often this is the case. A block of code is difficult to write usually because the surrounding infrastructure isn't quite suited to the task, or because some facility or data isn't easily available from that context, or because the code you are trying to write is semantically incorrect. It's almost as if the code knows it's wrong somehow and resists being written. But when everything is designed well -- both the code you are writing and the system you are adding it to -- code seems to practically write itself. It just flows, effortlessly, right out your fingertips. This is true even with very complex code that you might think would naturally be hard to write. But it's not hard to write if the system is well-designed. It may take time, or a lot of code, but it won't take a lot of wrangling or struggle to get the pieces to snap together. This does relate to poker. Here's how. Often times when I'm playing a hand I'll do something on an early street, and then I'll be put in a difficult spot on a later street. I'll have to make a decision for a lot of money where it's very unclear what the right thing to do it. A (not great) example of this came up yesterday, (link). I came in to a (virtually) unraised flop with a weak offsuit connector, flopped a potentially marginal trips hand, and tried an unorthodox (read incorrect) flop line in order to extract the maximum from my 2 opponents. The line I took was passive, and I didn't wake up until the next street, when the LAG led in to me. I raised, the ATM folded, and the LAG re-raised. Now I'm faced with a difficult decision. Do I have the best hand? Is the LAG overvaluing an even more marginal hand, as he is wont to do? But this LAG is a fairly good LAG, in that he doesn't get involved in big pots late without a solid hand. My thoughts were all twirly, and I was totally unsure about the correct line. The problem was I designed the hand wrong on the flop. My intention was to get value from the other opponents, but I failed to consider the possibility that I may be the marginal one. The correct line on the flop was for me to lead (or at least check-raise). This would have caused the rest of the hand to play differently. But on the later streets, my decisions would have been much easier, not impossibly difficult as they actually were. As played, my turn was difficult because of things I did wrong on the flop. This happens all the time. In fact, I believe that in almost every case where I'm faced with a decision that is hard to make it is because I misplayed the hand on an earlier street. That is, when it is hard to make because I don't have enough information. There are also hands that take some work to figure out, but you still may have the information & the tools to do that work. Those hands aren't instances where misplayed earlier streets result in the challenge. Those hands are just the heavy lifting we all have to do in poker. No, the hands I'm talking about are the ones where you think to yourself, "I have no idea what to do, and I don't know how to figure out what to do!" These hands are difficult because you put yourself in to a difficult spot. These are the hands I look the most closely at in my own play. Maybe this post will help some of you. Maybe it was just too long, and you didn't read it. A Method to Compute Required Folds For Breakeven

Draw Pushing (Long)

#10513205 - 05/25/07 12:11 AM

Here's the situation (do not comment on the play of this hand, it is totally irrelevant and was contrived for the math): Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 5 Players (LegoPoker HH Converter) Preflop: Hero is dealt 6 8 (5 Players) UTG folds, CO calls $1.00, BTN folds, Hero raises to $4.50, BB folds, CO calls $3.50 Flop: ($10) Q 7 9 (2 Players) Hero bets $5.00, CO raises to $15.00, Hero ... ? As of this moment, the bet is $10 to call, there is $30 in the pot, and there is $125 more behind. You have 8 outs, and you think they are clean. That is, you have a 32% (according to the rule of 2/4) chance to improve to a straight, and when you do you will win 100% of the time. Assume these numbers to be correct. Ignore the equity of backdoor draws. You are considering pushing. Every time you push and the opponent calls, you are losing money long-term because you only have 32% equity. In other words, 68% of the time you will lose your stack when he calls. But that's not the whole story. Pushing also has Fold Equity. Fold Equity means that there is a certian ammount of value in pushing because the opponent may fold, and you will win the $30 that's in the pot right now. When you push and he folds then, it is a long-term +EV play. So the Net EV of pushing becomes the EV when he folds plus the EV when he calls. (It so happens that the EV when he calls is negative.) Our challenge is to figure out how often he has to fold for pushing to be breakeven. There is a simple mathematical method to compute this, but it is too cumbersome to use at the table. Here is how to compute how often he must fold in order for pushing to be breakeven. Let f = a number from 0 to 1, representing the probability he folds: EV = EVfold + EVcall 0 = 30f + (1-f) [ .32(125-15+30) + .68(-125) ] 0 = 30f - (1-f)(44.-85) 0 = 30f - (-41) - f(-41) 0 = 30f + 41f - 41 0 = 71f - 41 41 = 71f 41/71 = f = .58

So in order for pushing to be 0EV, the opponent must fold 58% of the time. How do you figure this out at the table? The math above is too complex for most people to do in thier head, especially on the 15 second timers common in internet poker. But there is a simpler way. The key to understanding the total equity in pushing is to envision a continuum of all the wins & losses you get from when he calls, and fill in the gaps with wins when he folds. I'll explain this by example.

When you push and he calls, you are a 2:1 dog. So for every 3 plays, you'll lose twice. Here's how that looks on our continuum (remember, we're looking for breakeven, or EV=0): +140 - 125 - 125 + ... The '...' represents the gap that we're going to fill in. For me, doing '140 - 125 - 125' is still to complicated for table math; I need smaller numbers. If we look at the size of our push in comparison to the size of the pot, we see that we are pushing 4x the $30 in the pot. So to make the numbers simpler, reduce all the numbers to "units" where 1 unit is the size of the pot, and round them to something easy for you to handle. For me, that's 0.5 units: +4.5 - 4 - 4 + ... This is approximate, but it's very close. Good enough to make good decisions at the table. Now things are pretty simple. I can do the math "4.5-4-4" in our heads, even under pressure: +4.5 - 4 - 4 = -3.5 So we see we lose when he calls. How many times does he have to fold to make EV = 0? The answer is simple, it's 3.5, or practically speaking, 4. So this is what we need our continuum to look like in order for the push to be breakeven: +4.5 - 4 - 4 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 Note that everything is still broken out. I didn't reduce '4.5 - 4 - 4' to just -3.5. This is important, because the last step in figuring out how often he has to fold is to count up all the plays in our continuum. In order to do that we need to not reduce the expressions, since each expression is one play. In our continuum there are 7 expressions, and so there are 7 plays: We won 4.5 once, lost 4 twice, and win 1 four times. So we can see how often he needs to fold: 4 out of 7 times. Now again I can't do "4/7" in my head precisely, but I can get close enough. I know that 4/8 is exactly 0.5, so 4/7 is a little bigger than that. He needs to fold a little more than half the time in order for pushing to be breakeven. If you actually do the math on a calculator, you see that 4/7 = 57% which is extremely close to what we came up with above when we computed the number precisely. In fact the two methods are based on the same principal, they are just 2 different ways of looking at it. The error comes from the rounding of the numbers to 'units'. With no rounding, this method is precise. Hope this helps some of you. I know it helped me when I figured out how to do this. A Newbie Guide to B&M Small Stakes No Limit Cash Games
#11802565 - 08/24/07 04:21 AM

I have been trying to teach a few of my friends the nuances of being a winning poker player. Over the summer we played once a week (where I would try to

actively instruct them) and I think they are now ready for their first trip to the casino, which is happening this weekend. None of them have been to the casino before, so this week I've been preparing them for what to expect. Also, since I've taught them all to play a solid TAG game, they do not have experience playing against the large number of poor players you will find at the casino. So, as the final step in their preparation, I want to write up a good list of what they need to know. I looked over the official thread on this topic, but its tone seemed to imply that if you make any mistake at all you're a mentally retarded douchebag, which is just silly. It also does nothing to address B&M specific poker strategy, which I wanted to cover as well. I post it here for comments because while I know a decent amount about poker, my experience is mostly online and thus I could use some help with the casino specific strategies. Casino Procedures After the god-forsaken drive through urban LA or the rural Indian Reservation, you've finally made it to the casino! You park the car and finger the large wad of cash in your pocket as the world transforms from the dull grey of night to the neon sunlight of what is to be your personal hunting grounds for the next several hours. There's a special something in the air (most likely the extra oxygen being pumped in) that lets you know that it's going to be a special night for you and your bankroll. You're itching to play, but it's not so clear how to get started...

The first step to playing poker is to actually find the poker room! It's not as easy as it may seem, poker rooms are always hidden in some back corner of every casino ever built (this naturally doesn't apply to cardrooms). Some casinos have signs! Otherwise, just keep going back until you've reached the kitchens, then you've gone too far. Once you've found the poker room, your goal is to get seated at a table. Surprisingly, this is not accomplished by seating yourself at a table. At most every cardroom, there is a main desk (not always near the front) where you will put your name on a list. Nowadays, most large rooms have big electronic displays of the waiting lists for each game. Walk up to the desk and tell them which game you want to play, including the game type and the limit. For NL Hold'em, the limit is described by the size of the blinds, not the buyin amount. After you tell them your game of choice, they will ask for your name (give it to them, or make a better one up). This next part will vary. At most places, you should expect to wait for a seat. Eventually, your name will be called. Check in with the main desk and they will tell you which table you have been assigned to. Now, you need to get to your seat and buy chips, not necessarily in that order. If you do not know, ask the main desk. Some casinos have you buy in yourself at the cage. Others prefer you to go to the table first and buy in there. Either way, you will eventually find your table (after one or two wrong guesses). You are allowed to take any open seat. I recommend taking the seat farthest from the fat smelly guy, but others prefer to prioritize differently by enduring the fat smelly guy if on the other side is a not horribly disfigured girl with a decent face (but she plays poker!). If you have not bought in at the cage, buy in now by telling the dealer how much you want and placing your money on the table.

You've finally managed to go through all the damned rigamarole and now have

your seat at the table. Your giddy optimism has been gradually washed away by the slight haze of cigarette smoke and intermixing scents of cheap perfume, but you smile inside as you realize the rest of the table has been unknowingly placed in the path of a ten engine frieght train. As you try to count the number of teeth of the old man across from you (you conclude he has at least seven), the dealer says "Sir, would you like to post?"... As you may be aware, the blinds are a rotating forced ante all players must pay. A player's blinds pay for his or her cards for a full orbit of play. When entering a game outside of the blinds you stand to be dealt a number of hands without having to pay for them up front. Since this can be considered unfair, most casinos ask you to 'post' a big blind when you first start. If you do not want to post the blind, you may wait until the actual big blind has come around to you and start your game there. Posting is a personal decision, but I find it reasonable to post if you're coming in near the button, and to wait if you're a few hands away from the blinds. It may be good to know that you cannot come in on the button this way (you must wait until you are in the cutoff), but that is rarely an issue. Also, some casinos do not ask you to post, so don't post until they ask.

You decide to post. After all, you'll be winning it back in no time. It's time to lay the hurt on. The cards come around and you are dealt Q9, both hearts. The first player, a middle aged dour looking man, limps in. The next player, a young asian kid with hip sunglasses and an iPod, limps in after him. A couple of folds and a crusty old man raises. You blink and check yourself, you had not even noticed the old guy, this was the first time he had physically moved since you arrived at the table. Action is on you and you think about rehizzling, but you decide it's better to suck the players in for more money post-flop and cold-call the raise. Everyone else folds and both limpers call. The dealer collects the money and lays out the flop. You see the beautiful K J 4 , giving you a gutshot and a backdoor flush draw, a nearly insurmountable hand. There's no need to slowplay this monster anymore, it's time to go to valuetown! Dour Guy and Asian Hipster check and Crusty bets two thirds of the pot. His eyes seem alive for the first time tonight. You are slightly concerned about what long term effects this hand will have on the poor man's health as you go to raise... On small actions, it is not always necessary to clearly define your decision. Calling bets and folding hands is very obvious for all to see (make sure you push your folded hand to the middle of the table though). When it comes to raising, things can get trickier than you may expect. Thus, when making a raise (or opening bet post-flop), it is best to verbally declare your action before making any phsycial move with your chips. Do this by announcing 'raise' clearly so the dealer can hear you, then by announcing the amount of the bet/raise. This will avoid confusion and keep the game moving smoothly. Remember, verbal declarations are binding actions, so make sure you mean what you say. After you announce your amount, count your chips without rushing by creating a single stack of five or ten chips and then making new stacks by matching the height of the original one. As your verbal action was binding, the dealer is able to help you count out your chips, so if you are having trouble it is ok to ask the dealer for help.

Not wanting to scare away the old man, you raise the minimum by doubling his original bet. The old man's eye's widen slightly and he blinks a few times. It's no wonder, you think, this is probably the first time in his extremely prolific life that he

has ever encountered a player of such skill and vision. After a couple of seconds, the old man gruffly says 'call' and matches your bet. He is now sporting a pronounced frown on his face. You're just trying hard not to burst out in a grin. The turn brings the K , your path to ascendency has been assured. The old man has a coughing fit and almost dies. It's annoying, old players always slow the game down. The old man stops coughing long enough to check. You feign weakness and bet a quarter of the pot hoping he will come over the top. Naturally the old guy falls perfectly into your trap and raises, leaving him a pot sized bet left in his stack. You have a tough decision to make, put him in now, or wait for the river, you need some time to think it over... Sometimes, the flow of the game will become too fast (ok, very rarely) and you will need some extra time to think over a big decision. If it's your turn and you know you need extra time, look at the dealer and say 'time'. This will let the dealer know you are going to take a little longer, and he will wait and only prompt you when it is truly time for you to stop thinking and make a decision. Do not let yourself feel rushed when it is your turn to act, take the time you need to make the correct decision.

You decide to trap the old man again by just calling. The dealer turns over the inevitable T . You'd act surprsied, but you aren't. As planned, the old man announces 'all-in'. You think about Hollywooding, but you're not a douchebag so you call quickly. The old man says "I think you've got me" with a twinkle in his eye. 'Of course I do', you think to yourself as you go to throw your cards in. As you do, you look over and see the old man is still holding his cards face down, looking at you with a queer smile on his face... DO NOT throw your cards away until you have been physically awarded the money in the pot. Once you toss your cards your hand is considered forfeit and you no longer have any claim to the pot. To win the pot at showdown, you must turn over both cards. Do not let anyone take your cards until you get the money! A good rule of thumb is to keep it simple. It is tempting to take the initiative and try and determine the winner yourself. Save yourself the trouble and turn your hand up and wait. It is the dealer's job to award the pot to the correct player. This will avoid confusion and make things easier for all parties.

You pull your cards back in time to see the old man turn over two kings. Doing the math in your head, you figure that this gives him four kings, which would be a good hand against any other player. The table oohs and aahs in appreciation and the dealer moves to push the old man the copious pot. You just smile and turn your hand over. At first no one notices, but soon a huge commotion has enveloped the table and the surrounding area. The old man has just won the bad beat jackpot! The dealer pushes you the pot and looks at you expectantly... After winning a hand, it is customary to tip the dealer $1. Do this after the dealer has given you the pot, usually when he takes your cards. The dealer should verbally thank you, and will tap the chip on the table to signify to the floor that the chip was given to the dealer as a tip. You do not need to tip the dealer for very small pots, such as when you raise and win the blinds. It is not uncommon for people to tip more than $1 when they win larger pots. You are under no obligation to do so, $1 is easily sufficient for any sized pot. Tip more if you feel like it, you'll make a new friend for sure.

The old man is the hero of the hour. The bad beat jackpot just paid him $43,000. He is surrounded by the hordes, some giving him congratulations, some asking to 'borrow' money. You sit alone at your table dejected. 'Some people get all the luck' you think as you pack up to leave. There's no way you can continue playing in such a sour mood. It's so frustrating when such a crappy player like that gets such miracle cards while a true pro like yourself never catches any breaks. You comfort yourself with the knowledge that in the long run, skilled play will always prevail over such lucksacks as that crusty old man. Your mood ruined, you cash out and walk dejectedly out to the parking lot. As you walk out into a light drizzle your mood improves slightly. After all, there's always tomorrow. Casino Strategies These are strategies which are more specific to casino settings. Some have to do with being in extremely loose/passive games and thus are not exclusive to B&M settings, but the tips still apply. I can't verify the accuracy of any of these, nor the completeness of the list. Please feel free to improve upon it if you so like. The first and most important tip is to have fun! People come to the casino for multiple reasons. Some are serious players and want to win money. Others are recreational gamblers just looking for a chance to hit it big. Usually it is the second group that donates to the first. Thus, if you are there to win money, it is in your best interest to keep the donators happy. Do this by giving them the environment they want. Be friendly and jovial, small talk is encouraged. If poker strategy comes up, just use phrases like: "My brothers friend won a lot of money playing a few weeks ago so I figured I'd come and give it a shot too", or "QQ is so overrated, an A or K comes out 80% of the time so you always lose", or my favorite "everyone always plays high cards, so I play the low cards and get them all to myself". Keep up the image of a recreational gambler while you do your best to dominate the table. Take some time and watch the players at your table. There are three basic tendencies I find most important to watch at a low-limit live table. 1) Who limps a lot. Limping in too much is the largest sign of a donator. A secondary (and often more glaring) sign is how often they call raises preflop. Find the people at your table who play too many hands preflop and target them. 2) Who raises a lot. This is more difficult. Good players can raise a lot, but often you will encounter action players who like to play for large pots. If you are new and not playing on a comfortable bankroll, these players can take you out of your comfort zone. If that is the case, it may be best to avoid them by simply folding to them preflop more often. But, if you have seen them raising with hands such at A7o and K9o, you can begin to target these players as well. Be prepared for the higher variance that will come with the higher win rate though. 3) Who calls a lot. Even more profitable than players who call too much preflop are players who call too much post-flop. The farther in a hand one goes, the larger the bets become. Thus, you mustfind the players who call down after the flop too much. These guys are your bread and butter (which we will discuss a bit later). This may be a bit tough because often they will lose their money so fast, you will not have an opportunity to take advantage

of them. Adjust your hand ranges. Live tables play very loose and often very passive. This allows you certain options that aren't available in tighter and more aggressive games. First, open-limping with solid speculative hands (suited connectors and small pairs) becomes profitable. Also, if you are in late position with several limpers to you, you can limp behind with a huge range of hands: suited 1-gappers, suited aces, even some suited kings (just make sure you don't put too much value in a flopped pair of kings in this case). If the table is loose, high card hands lose a lot of value out of position. Where before you may have open raised early with hands like KQo, now you put yourself in a tough position, playing a bloated pot out of position against players with enormous hand ranges. While you should still be raising in late position, it is often acceptable to limp in early with hands like AJo and KQo for pot control. (Although this whole point is debatable I'm sure). Match the table dynamics. Once again, you don't want to single yourself out as a mathematical pokulator at a table of recreational players. So, when accepatable, match your play to that of the table's. For example, in a 1/2 blind game, is it customary to open raise to 7 or 8. At the casino, I usually switch to 10, as this has been the standard opening raise where I play and it looks more natural throwing in two red chips than counting out a red and a few whites. Also, note that a larger intiial raise size helps a tighter player. Don't play scared. For new players, it is often an intimidating experience the first time you go to a casino. One way this is manifested is by players playing it safe by betting and raising smaller than they should, or often by not betting at all. Do not make the mistake of playing to win pots and not lose money. A true poker player plays to maximize their expectation. Thus, a missed value bet is as large of a mistake as a bad call for the same amount (possibly even more if the call had a small amount of equity). Which brings us to: Value Bet! In a loose/passive game, your main profits are made from bad players calling your bets with worse hands. This gives you enormous control over your results. Remember the player who calls too much post-flop? You must single out these people over any others as they will be responsible for the vast majority of your winnings. Once you find these people, bet large and bet often. Since you control how much you bet, you control how much money you get! Don't be scared, bet as much as you think they will be willing to call. Play to maximize your profits. Yes, it can be scary out of position with AQ on a AJ649 board, but force yourself to put a solid bet out on the river, you'll be amazed at what they will call with. Which brings up another important point... When first learning poker strategy, new players are usually taught the basic ideas behind preflop play and then simple flop play ideas. This is because these areas offer the largest opportunities for quick improvement (and are also a required foundation for later street play). What is often lost is that, especially in no-limit, turn and river play is absolutely crucial for one's success. In a game where the bets effectively double each round, a single river bet may be as large as all the other bets combined. Thus, missing out on a solid river value bet can be a huge mistake. So, although it may be scary, suck it up and make those bets. Your bankroll will thank you. Anticipate bad beats. When first learning and playing with friends who play

similarly, bad beats will be a fairly rare occurance. This is because by definition, a bad beat occurs when one gets their money in way behind and hits a miracle card to suck out. When playing with other solid players, it is much more rare for a player to put in a solid amount of money while way behind. Thus, the opportunities for bad beats to occur are far less. Converesly, a loose passive casino game is a breeding ground for suckouts. Playing with people who take their hands too far too often will inevitably lead to a significant number of suckouts. To a new player with a small bankroll, this can be extremely defeating. There is no easy cure for this other than to realize that in order for someone to suck out on you, you must have outplayed them and should have plenty of other opportunities to make the money back in the near future. Do not let yourself get frustrated, just keep playing your game.

Ok, that's all I have for now. It turned out to be much more than I originally planned on anyway. As always, any comments are appreciated, I don't claim to be the end all authority on any of this. Hopefully though, this will be a good guide for knowlidgable players making their first trip to a casino.