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53f16bf4-643a-11e2-9d09-17c76d198fbf_acci.pdf

53f16bf4-643a-11e2-9d09-17c76d198fbf_acci.pdf

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Published by: Belinda Winkelman on Jan 22, 2013
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08/10/2013

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ACCI SURVEY
OF
INVESTOR CONFIDENCE
January 2013
 
CONTENTSFOREWORD
Summary2Constraints on Investment - FinancialConstraints Remain Prominent3Own Business4
Own Business Condions - Current
4
Own Business Condions - Expected
4Own Sales - Current5
Own Sales - Expected
5
Own Protability - Current
6
Own Protability - Expected
6
Expected Level of Acvity
7
Expected Level of Investment
7
Expected Number of Full-TimeEmployees
8
Expected Capacity in Relaon to Demand
8
Actual Sales Compared with the LevelExpected Six Months Ago
9
Actual Prots Compared with the LevelExpected Six Months Ago
9
Naonal Economy
10
Naonal Economic Condions - Current
10
Naonal Economic Condions - Expected
10
Climate for Investment - Current
11
Climate for Investment - Expected
11
Expected GDP Growth
12
Expected Business Investment
12
Expected Movement in Prices
13
Expected Unemployment Rate
13
Expected Wages Growth
14
Expected Interest Rates
14
The
 ACCI Survey of Investor Condence
is a naonal surveyundertaken through the Australian Chamber of Commerce andIndustry’s member associaons.The survey covers the three months to December 2012 and had595 respondents. This survey’s respondents are mainly from theconstrucon and manufacturing industries.For further informaon contact:Greg Evans, Chief Economist, ACCI on
(02) 6273 2311.N
ote on Interpreng the Data
An index level of 50.0 (apart from the Constraints on Investmentsecon) indicates that there is a balance between those whoresponded posively and negavely. Thus for the most part, alevel below 50 indicates that condions are deteriorang, andconversely, a reading above 50 indicates condions on averageare improving.
ACCI Survey of Investor Condence I January 2013
1
ACCISURVEY
OF
INVESTOR CONFIDENCE
 
BUSINESS CONDITIONS AND CONFIDENCEREMAIN DEEP IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY
The January 2013
ACCI Survey of Investor Condence
shows that most actual and expected business indicatorsremain deep in contraconary territory over the December quarter of 2012, with some indicators falling to theirrecord low levels since the Survey began in 1998. With the excepon of 
Expected Unemployment Rate
, allindicators remain below their ve year averages over the quarter.
Own Business
While the current indexes of 
Own Business Condions
(p.4),
Sales
(p.5) and
Protability 
(p.6) improved overthe December quarter, business expectaons for these three indicators have connued to decline to their newrecord low levels. These readings indicate that business senment remains extremely weak for the rst quarterof 2013, despite recent improvement in business trading condions.The index of 
Expected Number of Full-Time Employees
(p.8) fell to its new 15-year low over the quarter, indicangbusiness hiring intenons over the rst half of 2013 remain anaemic.
National Economy
While actual index of 
Naonal Economic Condions
(p.10) recovered marginally from its historic low inDecember, the indicator for
Climate for Investment 
(p.11) connued to fall to its lowest level in the survey’s15 year history. Their expectaon indicators for the rst quarter of 2013 have connued to decline to theirlowest levels since June 2009, indicang that businesses are becoming increasingly pessimisc aboutAustralia’s economic performance and the climate for business investment.Over the next twelve months, business expects price pressure (p.13) to remain contained, consistent with anexpected fall in interest rates (p.14). It is concerning that the unemployment rate (p.13) for the next twelvemonths only fell marginally from its recent peak and economy-wide wage growth (p.14) is expected to remainelevated, despite recent falls.
Quarterly Constraints on Investment
ACCI’s quarterly index of 
Constraints on Investment 
(p.3) found that
Business Taxes and Government Charges
remained the largest constraint on business investment for the 18th successive quarter. It is concerning thatgovernment regulatory requirements have inhibited business capital expenditure plans, with
Federal Government Regulaons
and
Local Government Regulaons
increasing to the third and eighth posions respecvely, while
State Government Regulaons
remaining the h largest impediment on business investment.
2
ACCI Survey of Investor Condence I January 2013

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