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Navigating a Changing World Economy: ASEAN, the People’s Republic of China, and India

Navigating a Changing World Economy: ASEAN, the People’s Republic of China, and India

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Most projections envision continued rapid growth in the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and India (collectively, ACI) over the next two decades. By 2030, they could quadruple their output, virtually eliminate extreme poverty, and dramatically transform the lives of their more than 3 billion citizens. The impact will be felt across the world. This study—a background paper to an Asian Development Bank report—used a Computable General Equilibrium model to examine the likely effects of the region's growth on trade, resources and the environment, as well as the implications of the many risks the region's growth path faces from its internal and external environment.

Most projections envision continued rapid growth in the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and India (collectively, ACI) over the next two decades. By 2030, they could quadruple their output, virtually eliminate extreme poverty, and dramatically transform the lives of their more than 3 billion citizens. The impact will be felt across the world. This study—a background paper to an Asian Development Bank report—used a Computable General Equilibrium model to examine the likely effects of the region's growth on trade, resources and the environment, as well as the implications of the many risks the region's growth path faces from its internal and external environment.

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Published by: Asian Development Bank Institute on Jan 23, 2013
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09/17/2013

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ADBI Working Paper Series
Navigating a Changing WorldEconomy: ASEAN, the People’sRepublic of China, and India
Peter A. Petri and Fan ZhaiNo. 404January 2013
 
Asian Development Bank Institute
 
 The Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series; thenumbering of the papers continued without interruption or change. ADBI’s working papersreflect initial ideas on a topic and are posted online for discussion. ADBI encourages readers topost their comments on the main page for each working paper (given in the citation below).Some working papers may develop into other forms of publication.Suggested citation:Petri, P.A. and F. Zhai. 2013. Navigating a Changing World Economy: ASEAN, the People’sRepublic of China, and India. ADBI Working Paper 404. Tokyo: Asian Development BankInstitute. Available: http://www.adbi.org/working-paper/2013/01/22/5457.navigating.changing.world.economy/ Please contact the authors for information about this paper.Email:ppetri@brandeis.edu;zhaifan@china-inv.cnPeter A. Petri is the Carl J. Shapiro Professor of International Finance at BrandeisUniversity, a senior fellow of the East-West Center in Honolulu, and a visiting fellow ofthe Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. Fan Zhai is acting headand managing director of Asset Allocation and Strategy Research Department at ChinaInvestment Corporation (CIC).This paper is part of theAsian Development Bank Institute study on The GreatTransformation: ASEAN, the PRC, and India.The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views or policies of ADBI, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board ofDirectors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy ofthe data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences oftheir use. Terminolo used ma not necessaril be consistent with ADB official terms.Asian Development Bank InstituteKasumigaseki Building 8F3-2-5 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-kuTokyo 100-6008, JapanTel: +81-3-3593-5500Fax: +81-3-3593-5571URL: www.adbi.orgE-mail: info@adbi.org © 2013 Asian Development Bank Institute
 
ADBI Working Paper 404 Petri and Zhai
Abstract
Most projections envision continued rapid growth in the members of the Association ofSoutheast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and India(collectively, ACI) over the next two decades. By 2030, they could quadruple their output,virtually eliminate extreme poverty, and dramatically transform the lives of their more than 3billion citizens. The impact will be felt across the world. This study—a background paper to anAsian Development Bank report—used a Computable General Equilibrium model to examinethe likely effects of the region's growth on trade, resources and the environment, as well as theimplications of the many risks the region's growth path faces from its internal and externalenvironment.
JEL Classification:
F02, F13, F33, F53
 

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