Issue Analysis

2013
2 Jan. 2013

Summary

- ,

- 7 15
7 8.3% 11 7.7%

- ISM 6 8 3 50

- ,

IB , 2%

- 1%
2% -

- CPI 7 1.4% 9 2.2% 10

1.8%

- IB (PCE)
1.5%

- Barclays Capital

, ,

- , -

- 2 9
.
Korea Center For International Finance
1

Issue Analysis

- 11 504 2009 11
37 7 2010 4

- 10 88 8 2008 7
11 86 1 . 12
47 2006 4

- (FHFA) 2
10 9 (< 2>)

- IB 2%
(< 1>)

6.0
5.5
5.0

< 1>

0.7

<2>

911=100
196

001=100
149

194
()

0.6

()
0.5

147

FHFA()
192

145

SPCS20()

190

143

188

4.5

0.4
4.0

141

186

139

184
0.3

3.5
3.0

0.2
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12

137

182
180

135
Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

< 1>

12/1Q 12/2Q 12/3Q 12/4Q

2.0
1.3
3.1
1.5

2.4
1.5
1.4
2.0

7.5
3.6
-2.2
2.91

20.6
8.4
14.3
17.0

(56.9) (41.4) (61.3) (45.2)

(b$)
(-416) (-407) (-403) (-383)
(b$)
4.4
5.2
1.1
-1.5

3.1
2.8
0.1
-3.1

-3.0
-0.7
3.5
-2.0

: 2005

(: %)

12 13/1Q 13/2Q 13/3Q 13/4Q 13

2.3
1.4
2.0
2.5
2.8
2.0
1.8
1.2
1.6
2.2
2.4
1.8
7.1
2.7
6.0
7.9
8.8
3.8
12.1
11.6
14.1
16.6
19.4
14.3
(51.1) (50.3) (51.5) (55.8) (56.1) (53.8)
(-403) (-387) (-385) (-390) (-396) (-389)
3.3
4.0
5.3
5.5
5.8
2.6
2.4
2.7
4.4
5.7
5.9
1.5
-1.2
-1.2
-0.7
-0.8
-0.6
-0.6
. IB
Korea Center For International Finance

Issue Analysis
- 7 15 ,
7 8.3% 11 7.7%
(< 3>)

-
2007 3/4 130.2% 3/4 109.2%
(< 4>), 2009
1/4 51.2 3/4 64.8

-

(< 1>)

350

< 3>

$
15

%
10.5

150

14

9.5

13
-50

-250
-450

8.5
()
()

-650

12

7.5
6.5
5.5

-850

4.5

135
130

()
()
()

125

120

11

115

10

110

105

100

95

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12

<4>

Mar-00

90
Mar-02

Mar-04

Mar-06

Mar-08

Mar-10

Mar-12

- ISM 5 53 6 8
3 50
9 10 51.5 51.7 11 49.5
(< 5>)

- IB
,
(< 1>)

- 3/4 15%
4/4
10 1% .
470
410 (< 6>)

-
IB
100 (< 1>)
Korea Center For International Finance
3

Issue Analysis
50

<5> ISM

10$

65
60

55

<6>

-20

YoY%
30

-25

20

-30

10

-35

50

-40
45

40

-50

()

-20

35

-55

()

-30

-60
Jan-09

30
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12

-10

-45

()
Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

-40
Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

- ,

12 31

- , 45 ,
,
,

-
,

- Goldman Sachs ( 25 ?) ,
150
2,330 , GDP 1.4%
(< 2>)
< 2>

-126
2%p
-40

-24

-56
2001/2003 ()
-136
2001/2003 ()
-103

-78
(Automatic Spending Cut)
-563

-3.5
GDP
: Goldman Sachs

(: 10$, YoY%)

-126
-12
-24
-56
0
0
-15
-233
-1.4

Korea Center For International Finance

4

Issue Analysis
- 9 FOMC 400
, 12 FOMC 450
,

- 10 1.5%
.

GDP 0.5%
< 3> IB

1Q

2012
2Q

3Q

UBS
Goldman Sachs
JP Morgan
2.0
1.3
3.1
BoA/Merill Lynch
Barclays Capital
: BEA, IB

2012
4Q

1.0
2.2
1.8
2.3
1.5
2.3
1.0
2.3
2.4
2.3

1Q
2.1
1.5
1.0
1.0
1.5

(: %)

2013
2Q
3Q
4Q

2.8
3.0
3.5
2.3
2.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
1.5
2.5
3.0
1.8
1.5
2.2
2.5
1.6
2.0
2.5
2.5
2.1

IB -

- ,
1%

-
2%

- 2% 2.3%
(< 3>)

- , 12 11~12 FOMC
(4/4~4/4 ) 2.3% 3.0% 1.7%
1.8%

- (CPI) (YoY) 7 1.4% 8 9

2% 2.2% 10 1.8% (< 7>)

- 6
9
Korea Center For International Finance
5

Issue Analysis

- PCE 3 2%
7 1.5%
< 7>

YoY%

%p
2.7

6
5

CPI

PCED

913

2.5

5
10

2.3

2.1

1
0

1.9

-1

1.7

-2

-3
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12

< 8>

1.5
Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

IB ,

- JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs IB (PCE)

1.5%
(< 4>)

- UBS, Barclays Capital PCE

2.5%

5
QE3
9 14 2.42%
2.2% (< 8>)
< 4> IB PCE
(: YoY%)

1Q

2012
2Q

3Q

UBS
Goldman Sachs
JP Morgan
1.1
1.3
1.6
BOA/Merill Lynch
Barclays Capital
: BEA, IB

2012
4Q

1.7
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.7

1Q
1.7
1.5
1.2
1.6
1.6

2Q
1.9
1.5
1.1
1.5
1.7

2013
3Q
2.3
1.5
1.2
1.7
2.0

4Q
2.5
1.6
1.4
1.8
2.3

2.4
1.7
1.4
1.5
1.9

Korea Center For International Finance

6

Issue Analysis

- 11 -
,

- 9 12 FOMC
850 , 6.5%
0~0.25%

- 2
, ECB ESM

- (YoY) 2010 1/4 10

3/4 7.4%
4/4

- Barclays Capital

,
(head wind) (tail wind)

- 45 ,

2

- Medicare, Medicaid, ()


-

- 16.394
(Geithner )

-
2 3


Korea Center For International Finance
7

Issue Analysis

- ECB , ESM
, (solvency)

-
, 2 9

- ,

- ,
,

- 12

- ()

, , 3
.
. : 02-3705-6247 cmkim@kcif.or.kr, : www.kcif.or.kr

Korea Center For International Finance

8