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Eurozone Markit PMI Jan 2013

Eurozone Markit PMI Jan 2013

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Published by economicdelusion
Eurozone Markit PMI Jan 2013
Eurozone Markit PMI Jan 2013

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Published by: economicdelusion on Jan 24, 2013
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02/05/2014

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Page 1 of 4
 
 © Markit Economics Limited 2013
 
News Release
Purchasing Managers’ Index
 ® 
 MARKET SENSITIVE INFORMATION
EMBARGOED UNTIL: 0900 (UK Time) 24 January 2013
Markit Flash Eurozone PMI
 ® 
 
Eurozone downturn eases as PMI hits ten-month high
 Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index
(1)
at48.2 (47.2 in December). Ten-month high.
 Flash Eurozone Services PMI Activity Index
(2)
at48.3 (47.8 in December). Ten-month high.
 Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
(3)
at 47.5(46.1 in December). Ten-month high.
 Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output Index
(4)
 at 48.0 (46.0 in December). Ten-month high.
Data collected 11-23 January.
The
Markit Eurozone PMI
 ® 
Composite OutputIndex
rose for the third consecutive month inJanuary according to the flash estimate, up to aten-month high of 48.2 from 47.2 in December, andup sharply from October’s post-crisis low of 45.7.However, while the PMI suggests that the recentdownturn may have reached its strongest back inOctober, the survey continues to signal fallingactivity overall – which has been the case in 16 ofthe past 17 months.
Markit (Flash) Eurozone PMI and GDP
3035404550556065
        1        9        9        9        2        0        0        0        2        0        0        1        2        0        0        2        2        0        0        3        2        0        0        4        2        0        0        5        2        0        0        6        2        0        0        7        2        0        0        8        2        0        0        9        2        0        1        0        2        0        1        1        2        0        1        2        2        0        1        3
-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.0
PMIGDP
PMI Output Index, sa, 50 = no change
Source: Markit, Eurostat. GDP = gross domestic product 
GDP, %q/q
 
Manufacturers reported a drop in production for theeleventh successive month, though the rate ofdecline eased markedly to the weakest in the pastten months. The rate of decline in service sectoractivity likewise eased, and also registered theweakest monthly fall in the past ten months.Trends were far more varied by country, notablyamong the two largest euro member states. Whileoutput across both manufacturing and servicesgrew at the fastest rate for a year in Germany,French companies reported the steepest downturnsince March 2009.The renewed expansion in Germany was led by theservice sector recording the strongest growth for ayear-and-a-half, while manufacturing reported thefirst, albeit marginal, increase in production sinceMarch.Output fell sharply in France, and at faster rates inboth manufacturing and services.Outside of France and Germany the average rate ofdecline remained strong, but moderated for thefourth month in a row to the weakest since lastMarch.
Core v. Periphery PMI Output Indices
203040506070
        1        9        9        9        2        0        0        0        2        0        0        1        2        0        0        2        2        0        0        3        2        0        0        4        2        0        0        5        2        0        0        6        2        0        0        7        2        0        0        8        2        0        0        9        2        0        1        0        2        0        1        1        2        0        1        2        2        0        1        3
GermanyFranceRest of Eurozone
Composite Output, sa, 50 = no change on previous month
Source: Markit 
 
Order books and employment
The rate of decline in Eurozone new business alsoslowed in January, with companies reporting theweakest contraction for 11 months. Rates of declineeased in both manufacturing and services to theweakest for 11 and ten months respectively.Manufacturers also reported the smallest drop innew export orders for a year-and-a-half.The slower rate of loss of new orders caused
 
 
Page 2 of 4
 
 © Markit Economics Limited 2013
 
backlogs of work to be depleted at the slowest ratesince last March. But firms still cut back on theirheadcounts for the thirteenth consecutive month.Moreover, the rate of job losses hit the highestsince November 2009, accelerating across both themanufacturing and service sectors. Faster rates of job shedding were seen in both Germany andFrance, and across the rest of the Eurozone onaverage.
Core v. Periphery PMI Employment Indices
203040506070
        1        9        9        9        2        0        0        0        2        0        0        1        2        0        0        2        2        0        0        3        2        0        0        4        2        0        0        5        2        0        0        6        2        0        0        7        2        0        0        8        2        0        0        9        2        0        1        0        2        0        1        1        2        0        1        2        2        0        1        3
GermanyFranceRest of Eurozone
Composite Employment sa, 50 = no change on previous month
Source: Markit 
 
Muted prices pressures
Prices charged fell for the tenth month running asfirms sought to boost competitiveness and winsales, though they showed the smallest monthlydecline since May. Selling prices fell in bothmanufacturing and services, with the latter reportingthe steeper rate of decline.Charges were lowered despite rising input prices.That said, the rate of input cost inflation was theweakest since September.
Business expectations reach eight-month high
Looking ahead, service sector businessexpectations for the coming year improved for thethird successive month to reach an eight-monthrecord. Sentiment reached eight- and five-monthpeaks in Germany and France respectively, andclimbed to a ten-month high across the rest of theregion.The forward-looking new orders-to-inventories ratioin manufacturing meanwhile rose to an 11-monthhigh, suggesting that firms will seek to raiseproduction in the coming months.Commenting on the flash PMI data,
ChrisWilliamson, Chief Economist at Markit
said:
“The January flash PMI data suggest that the Eurozone economic downturn has eased at the start of 2013. While official data are likely to confirm that the region contracted at a stronger rate in the final quarter of last year, the outlook has since brightened with January seeing the smallest drop in business activity since last March.“Forward-looking indicators – such as business confidence and the new orders-to-inventory ratio – also suggest that the rate of decline will continue to slow in the coming months, and a return to growth looks to be on the cards during the first half of 2013.“Worrying signs of weakness persist, however, with companies cutting staff at a faster rate, reflecting the need to keep costs as low as possible in the face of ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook.“Trends also remained worryingly divergent within the single currency area, creating tensions for policymakers. While Germany is reporting a strengthening upturn, France is seeing the steepest downturn since early-2009.” 
-Ends-
 
 
Page 3 of 4
 
 © Markit Economics Limited 2013
 Summary of January data
 
Output
 
Composite Output falls for twelfth monthrunning, but at slowest pacesince March 2012 (48.2).
Services Activity falls at weakest ratesince March 2012.Manufacturing Output falls at weakest ratesince March 2012.
New Orders
 
Composite New business declines atslowest pace since February2012.
Services New business falls at slowestrate since March 2012.Manufacturing New orders fall at weakestpace since February 2012.
Backlogs of Work
 
Composite Slowest decline in backlogs inten months.
Services Nineteenth successive monthlydecline.Manufacturing Backlogs fall at slowest rate in17 months.
Employment
 
Composite Jobs decline at fastest pacesince November 2009.
Services Jobs shed at fastest pace sinceSeptember 2012.Manufacturing Employment declines fortwelfth month running.
Input Prices
 
Composite Input price inflation at five-month low.
Services Input price inflation at two-monthlow.Manufacturing Weak rise in input prices.
Output Prices
 
Composite Output prices fall for tenthmonth running.
Services Charges down for fourteenthmonth running.Manufacturing Output prices fall for seventhtime in eight months.
PMI
(3)
Manufacturing PMI below 50.0 for eighteenthmonth running, but improves toten-month high of 47.5.
Output
3035404550556065CompositeManufacturingServicesEurozone PMIs - Output
 
New business
253035404550556065
1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
CompositeManufacturingServicesEurozone PMIs - New Business
 
Employment
3035404550556065
1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
CompositeManufacturingServicesEurozone PMIs - Employment
 
Input prices
2030405060708090
1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
CompositeManufacturingServicesEurozone PMIs - Input Prices
 
Output prices
3035404550556065
1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
CompositeManufacturingServicesEurozone PMIs - Output Prices
 
Source: Markit.

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