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Global Economic Trend

Global Economic Trend

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Published by Gerry Ding
As the professionals engaged in international trade, it is necessary to make their own judgments for the future international economic trends, as the external economic well-being, growth and recession, has the direct impacts on the trade volume
As the professionals engaged in international trade, it is necessary to make their own judgments for the future international economic trends, as the external economic well-being, growth and recession, has the direct impacts on the trade volume

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Categories:Types, Business/Law
Published by: Gerry Ding on Feb 12, 2009
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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06/16/2009

 
Global Economic Trend
As the professionals engaged in international trade, it is necessary to make theirown judgments for the future international economic trends, as the externaleconomic well-being, growth and recession, has the direct impacts on the tradevolume, we are neither economists, nor professional scholars, we only could tomake the choices upon the current international economy and the personalfeelings in the process of business as well as the disclosed the relevant economicdata, which would like to be the guide in choosing of the future trade direction.Starting from the idea of the world economy, governments around the world haveexperienced huge amounts of money to rescue the market turns, the West, in thiscentury, has ushered the most freezing Christmas Festival than in the past, itseems that there was no any holiday atmosphere in the Western world, but whichreflected the deteriorating economic environment from the side, peoples are of fearing on current economic situation and future trend, which caused theirreducing on spending. To be in a professional way, it is that consumer confidenceindex is sharply lower than before the crisis, which indicates that the developedcountries shift towards the Siege economy from the economic inflation, althoughthe bank injected a large amount of liquidity and cut interest rates sharply, or evenzero interest rates. recession has become inevitable to people, the rescue packageto ease the impacts of the financial turmoil in the financial system has run themarket in a stable, banks also have got the sufficient capital to run stably, butthose rescues and cutting interest rates have failed to effectively stimulate theeconomy, at least in the short term. Less effective recovery of the substantialeconomy, fewer discuss could be talked about. Take a sample of stock market, themarket value has shrunk significantly, a large number of investors were trappeddeeply, as a result of the current crisis caused.To the recovery and to avoid the economy into recession again, it is necessary toboost household consumption by stimulating the real economy for marketrecovery, suggested by an authoritative expression. Through a variety of economic, financial, tax methods to raise awareness of the consumer confidenceindex which is an index of confidence in the stock market likely. When the moneyherding appears, the market will gradually warming, and become active as aneffective market. Well, how to boost it in real consumption? There is no sparemoney to spend. The money invested in stocks, shares, bonds, commodityfutures, all to be crushed. Only then, as the United States, a large number of theprinting of bank notes, a large number of bonds to increase liquidity to thedevaluation of currency, which caused USA with no responsibility to transferred outof the crisis. The economic crisis of the past experiences and lessons of historymakes such advantages. Perhaps, a strong nation operating like that makes theirown rapid economic recovery, and brings about the regional nations catching thepace of recovery followed. Well, once the strong nation recovered, the developing
 
countries would suffer huge losses because of currency reserving in U.S. dollars,while the country will suffer loss of assets. After the loss, developing anddeveloped countries follow the footsteps of the economy, step into the slowrecovery of the trip. It is likely a economic dolls, there is no economic sovereignty,and we could do nothing about it. For reasons of the economic impacts and theoverall economy, these small countries can not influence the World EconomicCommunity. The crises caused by the developed countries were undertaken bymost of the countries, which caused them to pay for it in order to avoiding its ownbankruptcy. It is the law of the economic rule, and it is also important to holdeconomic sovereignty.To use their economic sovereignty to control their own local currency and foreigncurrency exchange rate, to control of the currency appreciation and depreciation, itis a quite sharp economic weapon of controlling their total trade, consumption,investment and purchasing efforts. Then the appreciation and depreciation as themeans of operation is under transferring tax adjustment. when a country'seconomy into the rate cut cycle, the local currency would be devalued significantlyagainst foreign currencies; when interest rates in that cycle, the local currencywould be appreciated, which could be learned from a professional map indicatingthe trend of the exchange rate, in order to drastically cut interest rates tostimulate the economy, international speculators, or large hedge fund to seek newopportunities for speculation in the international currency market. The interestrate differential will be the new target of profits, then the funds will flow to higherinterest rates Countries to promote the national currency appreciated, this is aslow process, and it will be followed by the influx of the hot money, a fastereconomic recovery, and stimulating investment in whatever of the real economy orthe virtual economy. It is less affected by the crisis who recovered up sooner witha substantial inflow of international capital.Now look at elements of the trade from the economy, interest margin and the costdifference are the major factor in the impact of trade, interest gaps affects thecrossing exchange rates, reviewing current data from several major strong nationsand communities, the United States, Japan tend to zero interest rates, theEuropean Union second, Australia is maintaining high interest rates and there isroom for rate cuts. Preliminary because the United States adjusted interest ratesto between 0-0.25, a substantial interest margin appeared, a large number of funds brought the euro, which led to the fall of the euro rebounded sharply, theweak dollar restored the disadvantaged, the euro rebounded sharply, so that thosewho trade the temptations are excited to have a try because of relatively lowertrading costs, this is the factor for trade to recovery slightly. Compared to thetrend of the euro, the Australian dollar as the currency of goods wasn’t made anyperformance, but it is evident consolidating the bottom according to its trend,what stopped their forward perhaps is the reason of plunge of the bulk commoditymarket, Obviously, Australian iron ore is one of the pillars of the Australia

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