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Roundabout Communication BC Election Projection, January 2013

Roundabout Communication BC Election Projection, January 2013

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Published by Chad Moats
A Projection model using the latest polling information for British Columbia. Combining all the most recent polls to project a result in each constituency.
A Projection model using the latest polling information for British Columbia. Combining all the most recent polls to project a result in each constituency.

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Categories:Types, Research
Published by: Chad Moats on Jan 26, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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02/02/2013

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ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC
ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS
KAMLOOPS,BC,CANADA
Summary
Last month Roundabout Communications released a very low tech basic versionof our Electoral Projector. We don't claim this version to be high tech but wehave added some new wrinkles, an explanation of our methodology and somecommentary. We also added a few shiny new objects for your viewing pleasure.Projections are subject to the margins of error of the opinion polls included, andthe unpredictable nature of politics.These projections are intended for entertainment, and to induce discussion and debate. The projections are notmeant for gambling or campaigning purposes.Regards,Chad MoatsOwner 
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra
 
ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC
Projection Methodology
Roundabout Communications compiles a “Poll of Polls” for the ElectoralProjector. Most polling firms breakdown respondents by region. Therefore,Roundabout as divided our “Poll of Polls” into the following Regions of BC:
Lower Mainland
Vancouver Island
Interior 
NorthBelow is a graph showing all the polls included with final date each poll was inthe field and sample size. The bar indicates the weight of each poll out of one(1).
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra
 
80210008008001008Jan 18,2013 -Angus ReidNov 30,2012 - IpsosNov. 22,2012 – Angus ReidOct 10,2012 – Angus ReidSept 18,2012 - Ipsos00.050.10.150.20.250.30.350.4
Value of each poll used in projection
Value
 
ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC
Each poll's “n” , or number of respondents/ sample size, is divided by the totalnumber of respondents to get the Initial Weight for each poll in the projector. A Time Penalty is then assessed based on time elasped since last day of mostrecent poll. A Subjective amount that reduces the value of a single poll over time. Roundabout uses a 0.013 reduction of each poll's weighted value as apercentage of total “N” per week. Each week is counted back from the last dayof the most recent poll and rounded to nearest week.The algorithm is:
(Weight of Poll's “N” – Time Penalty ) x Poll “N” = Real WeightThis value is then applied to each poll for each regions results.
Applying “Poll of Polls” to Constituency Projections.
Each Regional “Poll of Polls” is applied to each constituency result from the2009 Election. In the cases of Vancouver-Point Grey,Chilliwack-Hope and PortMoody-Coquitlam have all had by-elections. These results have been applied tothe projection at a weight of .333, with 2009 results being weighted at .666. Thereasoning for having by-election results weight lower are due to a few factorsthat include lower voter turn out, poor track record of incumbent governments inby-elections. However, being the most recent results can not be completelyignored, and must be included in the projection.In the case of the four (4) Independent incumbent MLAs. A general rule isapplied to Incumbent MLAs that are running again but have left there party sincethe 2009 election. There are currently 3 of those in the BC Legislature. Theyhave been awarded 60% of their 2009 results as a member of a party. Thiseffects Abbotsford South and Cariboo North. The Independent in Delta Southwon as an Independent in 2009. The new Independent in Boundary-Similkameen has currently stated that he will not seek another term.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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