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From Setyo Nugroho
HOUSE OF LORDSSelect Committee on Economic Affairs2nd Report of Session 2005-06
The Economics of Climate Change
Volume I: Report
Ordered to be printed 21 June 2005 and published 6 July 2005Published by the Authority of the House of Lords
London
: The Stationery Office Limited£priceHL Paper 12-I
The Economic Affairs Committee
The Economic Affairs Committee is appointed by the House of Lords in each session with theorders of reference “to consider economic affairs”.
Current Membership
The members of the Economic Affairs Committee are:Lord GoodhartLord KingsdownLord Lamont of LerwickLord Lawson of BlabyLord LayardLord Macdonald of TradestonLord PaulLord Powell of BayswaterLord SheldonLord Sheppard of DidgemereLord SkidelskyLord Vallance of TummelLord Wakeham
Publications
The report and evidence of the Committee are published by The Stationery Office by Order of theHouse. All publications of the Committee are available on the internet at:http://www.parliament.uk/parliamentary_committees/lords_economic_affairs.cfm
General Information
General information about the House of Lords and its Committees, including guidance towitnesses, details of current inquiries and forthcoming meetings is on the internet at:http://www.parliament.uk/parliamentary_committees/parliamentary_committees26.cfm
Contact Details
All correspondence should be addressed to the Clerk of the Economic Affairs Committee.Committee Office, House of Lords, London SW1A 0PWThe telephone number for general inquiries is 020 7219 6968The Committee’s email address is economicaffairs@parliament.uk
CONTENTS
Paragraph Page
Abstract
6
Chapter 1: Introduction
1
7
Box 1: The path of oil prices 1970 to the present
9
Chapter 2: The Uncertain Science of Climate Change
5
10
The greenhouse effect
5
10
Box 2: The greenhouse gases
11
Negative forcing
9
12
Box 3: The basic linkages in climate change
13
Temperature change
10
13
Scientific consensus and scientific doubt
12
14
Box 4: The main IPCC publications
15
Box 5: Recent temperature change
17
A note on the “hockey stick” debate
20
18
Box 6: The “hockey stick”
19
On past scares
24
20
Chapter 3: The Future Impacts of the EnhancedGreenhouse Effect
25
21
The nature of temperature change
25
21
Impacts: a thumbnail sketch
27
22
Extreme events
36
24
Large scale one-off changes
38
25
Summary indicators of warming damage
41
26
Box 7: Populations at risk from global warming
28
Positive effects of warming
43
28
Adaptation versus mitigation
45
29
and Temperature Change
48
31
The climate—economics linkages
48
31
Box 8: The IPCC emissions scenarios
32
The Henderson—Castles critique
52
33
Are the IPCC emissions scenarios equally plausible?
55
34
Are the economic growth assumptions credible?
61
35
Table 1: Past economic growth rates for world andworld regions
36
The issue of convergence
62
36
Table 2: The historical record on convergence
37
PPP versus MER
64
37
Table 3: Effects of MER and PPP on emissions,concentrations and rates of warming
39
Are the emissions and concentrations trajectoriesplausible?
68
39
Table 4: World emission trends and the IPCC scenariotrends
40
The population projections
70
40
Table 5: Population projections
41
Chapter 4: Forecasting Greenhouse Gas Emissions
of 00
Stern Report - The Economics of Climate Change
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