Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Sachchidanand Shukla
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
8bn)
Unio n 543 15 30 24 0 S tate ~1600 11 11 195
Punjab Jammu & Kashmir HP
No tax rate hikes in the budget Hike in Income tax exemption limits
Rs 4 3 5 b n ($ 8 b n )
Haryana
Rajasthan
Uttaranchal Delhi Sikkim Uttar Pradesh Bihar West Bengal Orissa Arunachal Pradesh Assam Nagaland Manipur
Gujarat
Madhya Pradesh
Mizoram
Tripura Meghalaya
Maharashtra
5bn)
M agnitude o f c as h trans fers ($ b n)
Goa
Election states
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
Eductaion, Child development & Scholarship Mass Housing Pension Insurance incl. health T o tal
Consumption to get a boost from a huge poll stimulus and direct cash transfers. Falling interest rates and a pro-consumption budget will be additional tailwinds
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
Slide No. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Investment Summary Magnitude of stimulus and consumption dynamics Beneficiaries of the stimulus Macro findings Appendix
PFCE constituents: performance in pre-election years Election states share of population & GDP Election timeline Higher spending improves win probability
4 7 14 19 23
Investment Summary
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
The Indian economy is likely to witness a ~USD 13 bn consumption stimulus over the next 12-14 months. Importantly, this has nothing to do with the upcoming Budget. This stimulus will be a result of:
~ USD 8 bn Poll stimulus: 13 states will witness assembly elections culminating into the General Election and ~2100 electoral seats will be up for grabs. This bunching of elections in a short span of time and the resultant poll spending by parties and candidates, will have important ramifications for consumption in FY14 even as the Fisc contracts ~USD 5 bn worth of Direct cash transfers: This scheme will cover 34 schemes as of now (ie LPG & kerosene subsidy, scholarships, old-age/ widow pensions, and MGNREGS) and cash would be credited directly to beneficiary bank accounts
Who benefits? We expect Auto, Consumer products, Liquor, Media, Telecom and White goods segments to see an uptick in demand on account of this stimulus Companies that could be primary beneficiaries include:
Auto M&M, Maruti and Hero Consumer products HUL, Marico, Britannia, Emami Liquor Radico Khaitan and USL Media - DB Corp and Jagran Prakashan Telecom Bharti, Idea White goods/ kitchenware Havells, Bajaj Electricals and TTK Prestige
Sectoral takeaways
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
Automobiles: Passenger cars show strong volume growth in pre-election years (exceptions being FY98 & FY09). Avg growth for cars during the period was ~20% (vs 20 year CAGR of 12%) and 10% for two wheelers, though motorcycles grew by 19%. We expect Industry leaders (Maruti, M&M and Hero) to gain market share as in the past cycles
Financial Services: The entire financial services industry (banks, micro finance, micro-housing, gold loans, auto loans, money transfer, etc.) will likely benefit with money flowing to right hands without any leakage
Overall CASA balance will rise with an increase in number of banking customers, which will support NIMs Increased lending to rural population / businesses will help in meeting priority sector targets (micro credit, kisan credit card, crop loans, etc.) and reduce dependence on RIDF investments (positive for NIMs)
Cost to income ratio may rise initially with banks setting up physical infrastructure, which will take ~2 years to break-even
FMCG: The sudden spurt in disposable income will flow towards high velocity and low price products (Low Unit Packs) categories such as biscuits, hair oils, shampoos, beverages, packed foods, balms and skin creams.
We expect volume growth rates for HUL, Britannia, Emami and Marico to improve in FY14 due to the overall stimulus. Historically, such categories have shown a jump in demand during election year as indicated by biscuit volume growth of Britannia, hair oils for Marico and Personal Products for HUL
Macro implications
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
Consumption spurt to GDP: Indias growth mix will still remain skewed towards Consumption due to the huge poll stimulus, injection of cash through Direct Cash Transfers, falling interest rates and a pro-consumption budget No need for over-the-top populism in the Budget: Cash transfers and the sizeable stimulus will obviate the need for a mega spending spree by the government. The budget will be a positive for consumption as it may leave some money in middle class pockets by raising Income Tax exemption limits and not burden consumers with increase in Tax rates Macro impact: Our analysis since 1991 shows that poll stimulus manifests in discernible changes in macro variables:
Fiscal Deficit: Fiscal deficit tends to overshoot budget estimates by ~100 bps on an average. We do not expect a >50 bps contraction in FY14 Fiscal Deficit from FY13 levels. Inflation: As more money chases fewer goods on average, inflation in pre-election year is 150 bps higher than the preceding year . Given the huge potential stimulus, we expect FY14 Inflation to avg ~6.7%, limiting RBIs rate cuts to ~100 bps through the year MSPs & Diesel prices: While MSPs do rise in pre-election years, the govt usually avoids Diesel price hikes in the run up to the General Elections. Hence, we expect Diesel price hikes to be front ended this year
COMPANY NAME
SECTOR
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
Bottom up check
Av g sp end/ El ec tio n c andidate* sp end (R s mn) (R s b n)
11 11 10 15 12 11 11 10 10 10 13 10 10 11 30 17 36 26 22 14 13 12 4 2 2 1 48 13 2 195 240 435
Unio n No. of seats Serious candidates/ constituency Avg. spend/ serious candidate T o tal (R s b n) Grand T o tal 543 3 80 130
S tate
FY 1 4 Madhya Pradesh Karnataka Rajasthan Delhi Jharkhand Chattisgarh Tripura Meghalaya Nagaland Mizoram FY 1 5 Andhra Pradesh Odisha Sikkim St at e s t ot al - (A ) U n i on e l e ct i on s - (B ) Tot al e l e ct i on (A + B )
R s 385 ($ 7b n)
Studies by Centre for Media Studies and Association for Democratic Reforms etc. have cited that the actual spending per serious candidate ranges from Rs 50-80 mn (10-17x of ceiling) on a Lok Sabha seat and Rs 20-50 mn (8-20x of ceiling) for an Assembly seat. Incorporating these figures, we arrive at a similar magnitude of stimulus (Rs 385bn)
# assumed 2% growth in candidates over 2009 *Average spend per candidate for elections is 6-7x of ceiling limit (i.e. Rs 1.6 mn for state assembly at Rs 4.5 mn for union elections)
Source: Election docs, Axis Capital,
8 8
Road transport expenses alone account for 100% of official election ceiling expenses!!
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
S c enario II 20 50 200 200 48.5 9 1, 077, 778 50, 000 500, 000 1, 627, 778 102
Our bottom up calculation reveals that the ceiling limits on election spending ie Rs 4 mn for Lok Sabha & Rs 1.6 mn for assembly elections are unrealistically low. The cost of road transport alone, including fuel and hired vehicle charges for a candidate contesting the state elections, works out to 52-102% of the election spending limit. Combined expenditure on Media (posters, banners and television), rally expenses, office space and party workers which we are not accounting for is a much higher component of election expenses compared to transport expenses.
This estimate does not include expenditure on air travel for candidates where the cost can be ~Rs 75,000 per hour for a chartered flight
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
Publicity
Travel
Other expenses 3
31
44
53
48
40 20
0 55
12
44
12 44
40
Publicity accounts for 40-60% of reported election expenditure with transport expenses at 25% Major parties like Congress and BJP spend bulk of publicity budget on electronic and print media while regional parties (like BSP) spend on cut outs, hoardings, banners, flags etc.
INC
BJP
SP
BSP
100
80
(%)
11 27 5 56 1 INC
2 20 7 66
6 BJP
2
69 62
60 40
20
5 21 3 SP
0 3 0 34
BSP
10
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
GoI has rolled out the ambitious direct cash transfer (DCT) programme utilizing the Aadhaar platform. The scheme is expected to cover the entire country by April 2014. DCT encompasses delivery of benefits under various welfare schemes (i.e. MNREGS wages, pension etc.) and subsidy disbursements (food through PDS, Petroleum and Fertilizers)
Subsidy is in pilot phase and thus we believe cash transfers will be limited to welfare schemes in the initial phase Lack of infra, banking access & low Aadhaar penetration (18%, < 10% in UP, TN, Raj, Bihar, MP/CG) could be the key bottlenecks in implementing the welfare schemes on a country wide basis in the next 12 months. However, the government also plans to use the national population register to expedite the process
Primary wel fare sc hemes Educ atio n - Sarv Saksharta Abhiyan - Midday Meal - Integrated Child Development Centres - Scholarships M ass H o using - Indira Awaas Yojana Pensio ns Insuranc e - Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) - Accredited Social health activists (ASHA) T o tal
Source: UIDAI
This estimate does not include spending on NREGS as it is in any case a cash dole out scheme
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and dont forget the state level parties with their poll freebies
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
Free electricity to farmers and weavers Waive farmer debt to the tune of Rs 50,000 per farmer Allowance of Rs 1,000 to unemployed youth above the age group of 25 years
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30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
(YoY %)
(%)
There is a significant negative correlation between IIP consumer durables and lagged interest rates
16 14 12 10 8
20 10
0
For every 100 bps decline in interest rates, IIP consumer durables growth increases by 200 bps We believe if RBI cuts interest rates, consumer durables would experience a substantial demand improvement
-10
FY'95 FY'96 FY'97 FY'98 FY'99
FY'94
FY00
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY01
FY02
FY10
FY11
Election year
IIP consumer durables has seen a substantial growth uptick in all pre-election years. The growth momentum has also moved into the election year
20 10 0 -10
FY94 FY95 FY97 FY98 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY04 FY05 FY07 FY08 FY10
FY96 FY99 FY03 FY06 FY09
Source: CMIIE
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COMPANY NAME
SECTOR
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30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
El ec tio n imp ac t With interest cut and election dole-outs, rural demand for tractors and 2 wheelers could see an uptick Election stimulus could lead to Increase in usage and up-trading in rural areas and low income urban households Post election revelry could yield a demand boost Media expenditure accounts for a significant portion of election expenses. With 15 states up for elections in FY13E and FY14E, print promotions by parties will be substantial Increased communication activity during elections and promotions through SMS could improve ARPU's for telecom operators Historically there has been a substanital growth uptick in white goods during pre election years Rural consumers could up-trade in this category
Benefic iaries M&M, Maruti and Hero HUL, Britannia, GCPL, Marico and Emami USL, Radico Khaitan, Tilaknagar Inds. DB Corp, Jagran Prakashan Bharti, Idea Havells, Videocon, Bajaj Electricals TTK Prestige
In our opinion, the magnitude of election expenditure and the pre-election revelry has positive implications on several consumption plays We expect Auto, Media, Telecom , Consumer products, Liquor and White goods to see an uptick in demand on account of the stimulus
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30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
(YoY%)
Election year
20
15
Hair oils, Biscuits and personal products which are discretionary FMCG products tend to witness an improvement in growth trajectory in majority of pre election years
10
5
0
FY96 FY98 FY99 FY01 FY02 FY04 FY05 FY07 FY08 FY10 FY11
FY97 FY00 FY03 FY06 FY09 FY12
Source: Company, *Note: the data points represent growth in Maricos oil revenues (Edible & Hair)
Personal products
120
100 (YoY%)
(YoY%)
20
15
80 60
40
10
5
20
0
FY96
FY98
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY09
FY10
FY96
FY98
FY99
FY01
FY02
FY04
FY05
FY07
FY08
FY10
FY11
FY97
FY00
FY03
FY06
FY09
Source: Company, *Note: the data points represent growth in Britannia's biscuit revenues
FY12
Source: Company, *Note: the data points represent growth in Hindustan Unilevers personal product sales
16
FY12
FY97
FY08
FY11
-20
Consumer appliances, liquor and jewellery volumes pick up in pre election period
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
(YoY)
Consumer appliances and Liquor show the most consistent rise in a pre-election year Jewellery volumes too rise more often than not
25%
23%
21% 19%
17%
15%
FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10
FY05 FY07 FY09
(YoY)
10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5%
FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10
FY05 FY07 FY09
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY06
FY08
FY10
FY05
FY07
FY09
17
Cars: Money supply is more important than interest rates for demand
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
Car volumes pickup in pre-election years In fact, declining interest rates and improving money supply is the best combination for acceleration in car demand There is also a high correlation between demand and agri terms of trade (ATOT) since 2007
(YoY %)
20 0
-20 -40
FY93
FY94
FY96
FY97
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
Source: SIAM
FY10
FY92
FY95
FY98
(x)
ATOT
Cars (RHS)
(YoY %)
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40
Dec-97
Dec-09
Dec-94
Dec-95
Dec-96
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-10
Dec-11
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-11
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COMPANY NAME
SECTOR
Macro findings
Fiscal Deficit: Growth in non-plan expenditure is usually high in a pre-election year which results in Central fiscal deficit overshooting Inflation: As more money chases goods & services, inflation increases (150 bps on average) in pre-election years MSPs and Diesel Prices: While MSPs do go up in pre-election years, Diesel prices are usually not tinkered around with
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30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
3 2 1 0 -1 -2
FY96
(%)
In 4 of 5 pre-election years, the Centre fiscal deficit has overshot the budget estimates by a 100 bps on average
FY98
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY09
FY10
FY97
FY02
FY03
FY07
FY08
(YoY %)
40
30
20
10
0
-10
FY97
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY10
FY98
FY03
FY08
FY09
20
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
Inflation - WPI
16 12 8 4
0
As a result of more money chasing fewer goods, inflation also increases in a pre-election year.
In 4 out of the 5 pre-election years, inflation has increased by 150 bps on average
( YoY %)
FY94
FY95
FY96
FY99
FY00
FY01
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY09
Source: RBI
FY10
FY92
FY93
FY97
FY98
FY02
FY03
FY08
(YoY%)
Agriculture credit witnesses a sharp increase in growth trajectory during pre-election years
Source: RBI
21
MSPs do go up.. But diesel price hikes may be front-ended this time
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
MSP
35 30 25 (YoY %)
MSP increases have been a more recent phenomenon. But a tendency to raise MSPs in a pre-election is evident
20 15 10
5 0
FY99
FY00
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY06
FY07
FY09
FY10
FY01
FY05
FY08
Diesel price
24
20 16
12
(YoY %)
While the govt hasfreed-up diesel prices lately, the observed behaviour indicates reluctance to do so in a pre-election year. Thus, we believe that Diesel price hikes could be front-ended as against expectations of a continuous and linear hikes
8
4
0 -4
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
FY04
Source: CMIE
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COMPANY NAME
SECTOR
Appendix
PFCE constituents: performance in pre-election years
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30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
F Y00 5% 2% -4% 3% -5% -7% 3% 0% 4% 4% 17% 15% 29% 0% 23% 3% 1% -6% -5% 20% 2%
C atego ry F Y09 size (US D b n) - 6% -6% - 3% 2% 10% -5% 4% 3% 3% - 9% -4% 16% 22% 5% 8% - 2% - 2% 1% -2% -5% -3% 62 52 319 35 9 8 9 5 116 19 34 133 88 30 15 23 150 15 47 16 71 979
S hare o f PF C E (% ) 6 5 33 4 1 1 1 1 12 2 3 14 9 3 2 2 15 2 5 2 7 100
Segments that have shown a consistent positive growth differential in a pre-election year:
Furniture & appliances Hotels & restaurants Transport & communication, Personal goods
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Election states a/c for ~35% of Indias popn & 32% of Indias GDP!
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
Po p (mn p p l ) 85 73 69 61 42 33 26 22 4 3 2 1 1 4 20 1210
S hare o f c o untry p o p (% ) 7 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 35
25
Election timeline
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
March
May
Oct
Delhi
2013
Chattisgarh Mizoram
Sikkim
2014
Andhra Pradesh
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30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
Win ratio 33 19 6 0 7
(Rs bn)
10
10% CAGR
While political parties refute any linkage between election spend and wins, studies confirm that there is a positive linkage between a candidates election spend and chances of winning. As a result, actual spending far exceeds the official expense ceiling
1957
1962
1971
1977
1984
1989
1996
1998
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2004
1952
1967
1980
1991
1999
30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
Discrepancy: There is a huge divergence between the actual vs reported election expenditure.
For eg BSP, contested from 500 constituencies incurring an expenditure of Rs 1 bn based on the average ceiling limit of ~Rs 2.0 mn. But its annual income for that fiscal was Rs 570 mn.
Election states
El ec tio n exp enditure b ased o n Av g. c eil ing F Y10 S eats c o ntested o f R s ~ 2 mn Ac tual exp enditure dec l ared in the 15th l o k p er c andidate o f R s 20 mn p er Inc o me sab ha el ec tio ns (R s b n) c andidate (R s b n) (R s b n) 433 440 500 68 95 82 23 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.7 8.8 10.0 1.4 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
High dependence on Cash: As gleaned from declarations of contributions and donations, a majority of that money comes through cash contributions of under Rs. 20,000, where one doesn't have to declare the source.
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30 Jan 2012
ECONOMY
THEMATIC REPORT
According to the election commission's observations, a Member of Parliament spends an average of Rs 70100 mn on a Lok Sabha election while an MLA spends Rs 20-30 mn on a state assembly election. Corporators are not far behind. Sample this: Jan 2012: Cost of Mumbai municipal elections at Rs 5bn http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report_the-costof-bmc-polls-rs500cr_1634039 Jan 12, Pune: In the last civic election in Pune about 25 corporators across party lines spent over Rs 10 mn each !! Pune civic elections In Nagpur, for civic elections in Feb 12, 1233 candidates reported aggregate spending of ~Rs 20 mn ie Rs 16,733 per candidate vs official limit of Rs 400,000 (actual spending > Rs 10 mn by a few candidates each) Nagpur civic elections
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