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MediCal Expansion.pdf

MediCal Expansion.pdf

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Published by: Ignatius Bau on Jan 30, 2013
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01/30/2013

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CalSIM
CaliforniaSimulation
of
InsuranceMarkets
Te Caliornia Simulation o Insurance Markets (CalSIM)model is designed to estimate the impacts o various elements o the Afordable Care Act onemployer decisions to ofer insurance coverage and individual decisions to obtaincoverage in Caliornia. It wasdeveloped by the UC Berkeley Center or Labor Research and Education and the UCLA Center  or Health Policy Research, with generous und ing provided by Te Caliornia Endowment.
Laurel Lucia, Ken Jacobs, Greg Watson, Miranda Dietz, and Dylan H. Roby
UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and EducationUCLA Center for Health Policy ResearchJanuary 2013Funding for this report was provided by The California Endowment.
Medi-Cal Expansion under the Affordable Care Act:Significant Increase in Coveragewith Minimal Cost to the State
 
 Acknowledgments
 We would like to thank Xiao Chen, Daphna Gans, Dave Graham-Squire, Gerald Kominski, Jack Needleman, and Nadereh Pourat or their involvement in developing CalSIM; Beth Capell, RichardFigueroa, Elizabeth Landsberg, Peter Long, Gil Ojeda, and Richard Tomason or their helpulcomments; Elizabeth Lytle or her assistance with the graphics; and Jenier MacGillvary or her help inpreparing this report.
 About the Authors
Laurel Lucia is a policy analyst at the University o Caliornia, Berkeley, Center or Labor Research andEducation. Ken Jacobs is the chair o the University o Caliornia, Berkeley, Center or Labor Researchand Education. Greg Watson is a data analyst at the UCLA Center or Health Policy Research. MirandaDietz is a research data analyst at the University o Caliornia, Berkeley, Center or Labor Research andEducation. Dylan H. Roby is the director o the Health Economics and Evaluation Research Program atthe UCLA Center or Health Policy Research and an assistant proessor in the UCLA Fielding School o Public Health.
he views expressed in this report are those o the authors and do not necessarily represent the Regents o the University o Caliornia, the UC Berkeley Institute or Research on Labor and Employment, the UCLACenter on Health Policy Research, he Caliornia Endowment, the Caliornia Health Beneit Exchange, or collaborating organizations or unders. Copyright @ 2012 by the Regents o the University o Caliornia. All rights reserved.
 
Lucia, Jacobs, Watson, Dietz, and Roby Page 3
Contents
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Eligibility and Enrollment will Increase with Expansion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Expansion will have a Positive Impact on Health Outcomes, Providers, and the Economy . . . . . . . . . . . .O the New Spending, 85 Percent or More will be Federally-Paid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Most New State Spending Not Due to Expansion in 2014 through 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Small Investment will Enable Large Coverage Increase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .State Spending will be Partly Ofset by ax Revenue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Remainder o State Spending could be Ofset by Budget Savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Appendix A: Methodological Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Appendix B: Comparison to Other Estimates o State Spending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Endnotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .466891112131417192122

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