February 1, 2013

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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from ValuEngine.com. In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com!

VALUATION WATCH: Our models find that overvaluation is at levels typically seen when a market pullback may occur. Overvalued stocks now make up 63% of our universe and 25% of the universe is calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. ALL sectors are calculated to be overvalued. MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

Week Open
13895.98 3152.17 905.95 1502.96

Thurs Close
13860.6 3142.13 902.09 1498.11

Change
-35.38 -10.04 -3.86 -4.85

% Change
-0.25% -0.32% -0.43% -0.32%

YTD
5.77% 4.06% 6.21% 5.04%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 36.96% 63.04% 14.67% 25.26%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
-0.72% -1.20% -0.61% -0.59% -0.78% -1.22% -0.54% -0.19% -0.39% -0.56% -0.64% -0.51% -1.04% -0.67% -1.16% -0.68%

MTD
4.46% 6.08% 3.20% 5.98% 6.20% 8.53% 7.21% 5.13% 6.25% 5.90% 6.32% 4.05% 7.40% 6.92% 9.98% 4.65%

YTD
4.46% 6.08% 3.20% 5.98% 6.20% 8.53% 7.21% 5.13% 6.25% 5.90% 6.32% 4.05% 7.40% 6.92% 9.98% 4.65%

Valuation
6.23% overvalued 6.90% overvalued 6.11% overvalued 10.80% overvalued 15.47% overvalued 23.85% overvalued 9.22% overvalued 27.46% overvalued 16.74% overvalued 20.99% overvalued 16.00% overvalued 8.13% overvalued 6.72% overvalued 15.54% overvalued 24.13% overvalued 7.63% overvalued

Last 12MReturn
6.71% 5.35% -22.80% 10.96% 3.95% 30.24% 11.60% 13.51% 16.70% 6.14% 9.64% 13.79% -9.89% 17.83% 6.44% 9.13%

P/E Ratio
14.42 15.32 31.44 30.89 39.7 43.44 27.74 23.81 22.66 24.72 31.65 14.77 41.13 36.9 25.76 17.92

Sector TalkBasic Materials

Below, we present the latest data on leading Basic Materials Sector stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
KGC YONG AEM IAG HMY

Name
KINROSS GOLD YONGYE INTL INC AGNICO EAGLE IAMGOLD CORP HARMONY GOLD

Mkt Price
8.23 5.45 45.83 8.25 6.46

Valuation(%)
-51.7 -19.09 -27.85 -47.92 -47.43

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-25.92 32.28 24.84 -49.63 -45.81

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
YONG KGC ABX VALE AU

Name
YONGYE INTL INC KINROSS GOLD BARRICK GOLD CP VALE SA ANGLOGOLD LTD

Mkt Price
5.45 8.23 31.92 20.17 28.02

Valuation(%)
-19.09 -51.7 -31.36 -11.06 -35.08

Last 12-M Retn(%)

32.28 -25.92 -33.94 -15.61 -37.86

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
YONG ASH ABX KGC VALE

Name
YONGYE INTL INC ASHLAND INC BARRICK GOLD CP KINROSS GOLD VALE SA

Mkt Price
5.45 78.51 31.92 8.23 20.17

Valuation(%)
-19.09 -4.12 -31.36 -51.7 -11.06

Last 12-M Retn(%)

32.28 26.06 -33.94 -25.92 -15.61

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
CHMT HL URRE FOE EXK

Name
CHEMTURA CORP HECLA MINING URANIUM RES INC FERRO CORP ENDEAVOUR SILVR

Mkt Price
23.72 5.25 3.22 5.1 6.87

Valuation(%)
300 300 235.31 132.41 131.08

Last 12-M Retn(%)

68.83 0.96 -60.73 -24.56 -39.31

Find out what Wall Street Investment and Media Professionals already know, ValuEngine offers sophisticated stock valuation and forecast research as well as a variety of portfolio screening and creation tools. If you are reading this you should sign up for ValuEngine's award-winning To Sign Up for a stock valuation and forecast FREE TRIAL, service Please Click HERE NO OBLIGATION, 30 DAY FREE TRIAL!

Free Download for Readers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Detailed Stock Valuation Reports--this report is normally $25.00 This week's free download is our report on Microsoft (MSFT). Microsoft Corporation develops, manufactures, licenses, sells, and supports software products. The Company operates in five segments: Windows & Windows Live Division, Server and Tools, Online Services Division, Microsoft Business Division, and Entertainment and Devices Division. Its products include operating systems for personal computers, servers, phones; server applications for distributed computing environments; productivity applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; video games, and online advertising. It also designs and sells hardware, including the Xbox 360 gaming and entertainment console, Kinect for Xbox 360, Xbox 360 accessories, and Microsoft PC hardware products. Microsoft Corporation is based in Redmond, Washington. Free Weekly Newsletter Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on MSFT HERE. Subscribers can check out the latest figures on MSFT from our models HERE. Not a ValuEngine.com Premium Website member? Then please consider signing up for our no obligation, two-week free trial today. ValuEngine's awardwinning stock Valuation and Forecast Models continue to provide investors with accurate, objective, and timely information on US stocks, ADRs, and foreign equities that trade on US markets. Over the last few months, our stock picks have provided clients with many winners in both up and down periods. If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE

What's Hot--Valuation Watch is ON

The ValuEngine Valuation Model tracks more than 8000 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which trade on US exchanges. The model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation percentage for each equity based on what the stock should be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic exercise to be sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and industries.

Whenever we see levels in overvaluation levels in excess of @ 60% for the overall universe and/or 27.5% for the overvalued by 20% or more categories, we issue a valuation watch. On Monday of this week, our stock market valuation overview reached critical levels. We now calculate that 63% of stocks are overvalued and 25 of stocks are overvalued by 20% or more. In the past, market pull backs have correlated closely to these sorts of numbers. ValuEngine issued a market valuation watch on January 28th, and overvaluation levels have remained elevated since then. This is a time for investors to keep a close eye on the market and to consider booking some profits and perhaps hedging against a move to the downside. Subscribers Get FULL ACCESS to our Market and Sector Overviews The chart below tracks the valuation metrics from June 2012 until today.

Valuation Watch is ON

Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--(1.985) Annual and semiannual value levels are 2.476 and 3.063 with daily and annual pivots at 2.021 and 1.981, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.843 and 1.413. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold ($1663.9) Daily and annual value levels are $1653.9 and $1599.9 with semiannual, monthly, quarterly and annual and semiannual risky levels at $1719.2, $1793.7, $1802.9 and $1852.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($97.46) Monthly and quarterly pivots are $96.21 and $95.84 with daily, annual and semiannual risky levels at $98.16, $115.23, $115.42 and $130.42. The Euro (1.3579) Quarterly, annual, semiannual and monthly value levels are 1.3334, 1.3257, 1.2797 and 1.2343 with daily and annual risky levels at 1.3604 and 1.4295. Major Indices Daily DOW (13,861) Quarterly and annual value levels are 13,668, 12,696 and 12,509 with daily, quarterly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 14,057, 14,118, 14,132 and 14,323. The October 2007 high is 14,198.10. The all time closing high is 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. S&P 500 (1498.1) Quarterly and annual value levels are 1431.1 and 1348.3 with daily, quarterly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1512.1, 1510.0, 1542.9 and 1566.9. The October 2007 high is 1576.09. NASDAQ (3142) Quarterly and annual value levels are 3071, 2806 and 2790 with daily, monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 3157, 3250, 3274 and 3583. The September 21, 2012 high is 3196.93.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2732) Annual value levels are 2463 and 2385 with a daily pivot at 2736 and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 2871, 2798 and 2920. Dow Transports (5804) Annual, monthly and quarterly value levels are 5469, 5440 and 5094 with daily, annual and semiannual risky levels at 5946, 5925 and 5955. We ended Monday with another new all time closing high at 5875.56. To confirm a Dow Theory Buy Signal the Dow Industrials need to have a daily close above its all time closing high of 14,164.53 set on October 9, 2007. Russell 2000 (902.09) Annual, quarterly and annual value levels are 860.25, 821.01 and 809.54 with daily, monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 910.87, 911.32, 913.92 and 965.51. The Russell 2000 set another new all time high at 907.91 on January 25. The SOX (412.73) Quarterly and annual value levels are 371.62 and 338.03 with a monthly pivot at 409.08, and daily, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 415.62, 440.36 and 520.17. The July 2007 high is 549.39. Stock of the Day One of the more popular features of Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing for investors is his stock of the day. In every issue, Suttmeier highlights one stock and provides VE data as well as his own proprietary technical data. Here is today's stock of the day from Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing Newsletter. United Parcel Service (UPS) ($79.29) United Parcel Service, Inc. is the world's largest express carrier, the world's largest package delivery company and a leading global provider of specialized transportation and logistics services. Their primary business is the time-definite delivery of packages and documents throughout the United States and in over 200 other countries and territories. They have established a vast and reliable global transportation infrastructure, developed a comprehensive, competitive and guaranteed portfolio of services and consistently supported these services with advanced technology.

Analysis United Parcel Service has a Buy rating according to ValuEngine with fair value at $79.96, which makes the stock 1.6% overvalued. The ValuEngine one-year price target is $89.91. The daily chart for UPS shows overbought momentum with the stock above its 21-day, 50- day and 200-day simple moving averages at $79.24, $75.79 and $75.51. My quarterly value level is $74.55 with a semiannual risky level at $80.21.

With Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing, you get daily analysis of US Treasury Yields, Gold, Crude Oil, and Currency Exchange Rates--Dollar, Yen, Pound, and Euro--as well as key technical indicators for the major equity averages.

Click HERE to Sign Up for Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing!

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We provide a variety of means for accessing ValuEngine market analysis and other content. You can find us on some of the leading financial media websites as well as the more popular social media services. While our own website ValuEngine.com provides access to lots of analysis--and you can always sign up to receive email daily and weekly bulletins HERE, some users prefer to download PDF reports of content while others prefer to garner info while browsing the web. Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is a prolific market observer and you can find his content in a variety of places. His weekly column on Forbes provides insights into his "Buy and Trade" strategy while his daily market analysis can be followed and accessed at Scribd, Twitter, and Minyanville. Senior Editor Steve Hach re-posts PDFs and web-accessible copies of Daily and Weekly ValuEngine bulletins at Seeking Alpha and Scribd. In most cases, you can receive notification of VE content posting by Suttmeier and Hach by following the ValuEngine feed on twitter @ValuEngine. Links for this content are provided below, you may also find these links on our website HERE

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