The Guardian Weekly 21.12.

07 1

Year in review

Completion anxiety . . . the Bush era has a year to run and the president badly needs more credit on the historical balance sheet Chip Somodevilla/Getty

US politics sets the pace as world struggles to find long-term fixes

The superpower appears to hold the reins in the race to rescue the Middle East, Kosovo and the planet. But its in danger of doing too little too late
World overview Julian Borger
For the world as a whole, this has been a year of the belated and uncertain fix. From Iraq and the broader Middle East to Darfur to Kosovo, and on the allconsuming matter of global warming, significant efforts have been made to address long-festering problems. But as 2007 dies away, there is a danger that it is all too little too late. The pace is mostly being driven by the political rhythms of the worlds most powerful state. In the United States the George Bush era has a year to run, and the president badly needs to have some more credit on the historical balance sheet when a final line is drawn in January 2009. That imperative at least partly explains initiatives in the past year to pacify Iraq, contain Iran, resolve the Kosovo impasse and somehow procure the holy grail of US foreign policy a settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. After seven years spent trying to dodge the thankless role of peace broker, the Bush administration hosted a Middle East summit in Annapolis at the end of November. The one-day event produced a declaration of intent from both sides to tackle the tough issues that have kept them apart for the past 60 years. But it was short on specifics unsurprisingly, as it was signed by two weak leaders, Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas, who will find it hard to deliver serious compromises. Perhaps their only strength, and the only reason to hope for a deal in the coming year is the growing awareness on all sides that the Annapolis process may represent a last chance before al-Qaida-style jihadism takes hold in the Palestinian territories. The deepening sense of time slipping away in the White House also forced a limited rethink on another all-consuming global issue: climate change. In tough and turbulent talks in Bali, a compromise was reached that kept the US inside a global collective search for a means to curb global warming, but American agreement came at a cost. The rest of the world had to accommodate Washingtons refusal to sign up to fixed goals for reducing emissions, stripping the targets from the main text. There were some breakthroughs: the emerging economies agreed they had a role to play in cutting emissions and the US agreed to financial and technological aid to help them play that role. But any real agreement on the pursuit of fixed goals with incentives for reaching them and penalties for missing them will probably have wait at least until the arrival of George Bushs successor in the White House. There is hope for movement earlier than that on another global crisis. The emergence of new leaders such as Gordon Brown in Britain and Nicolas Sarkozy in France has contributed to some fresh impetus on old problems. On Darfur, for example, they have been pushing for the deployment of a joint UN and African Union peacekeeping force, in the face of unspoken but determined resist- Continued on page 2

2 The Guardian Weekly 21.12.07

Year in review
Continued from page 1 a n c e f r o m Khartoum. These critical arenas remain in flux. The hope of better times is still alive, but besieged by pessimism over the scale of the challenge and the available reservoir of political will. In Iraq the surge in the US military effort has peaked and it is now in decline, against the background of a downturn in sectarian and insurgent violence. Some of the improvement may be because much of Baghdad has been ethnically cleansed into Shia and Sunni districts separated by concrete blast walls. For the militias that control them, there are simply fewer targets left. Meanwhile in Anbar, the western province that has been the crucible of jihadism, many local Sunni tribes have turned against the foreign fighters of al-Qaida, limiting its capacity to carry out attacks. The 30,000 US reinforcements have no doubt also played a role in lowering the body count, but the open question at the start of 2008 is how long those gains can last after the extra troops leave, particularly in the absence of a comprehensive settlement between Shia, Sunni and Kurd leaders on how Iraq should be run, and how its oil revenues should be divided. While attention has been focused on Baghdad and improving statistics on roadside bombs and casualties, the country has continued to splinter throughout the surge period. Prime minister Nouri al-Malikis writ does not extend much beyond the Green Zone in Baghdad. The situation in Basra could present a model of what the future holds for most of the country. The British have handed control of the province back to Iraqi forces, but the region will still be controlled by rival Shia militias who have been struggling for dominance for much of the past four years of occupation. The relatively benign conditions in which the British are surrendering control are largely explained by an informal truce among the militias while the invaders withdraw. It is a peace of sorts, but not a stable one. A lot will depend on the influence of neighbouring states. Turkey massed its troops on the northwestern border earlier this year, threatening to pursue Kurdish PKK rebels, who staged guerrilla attacks with increasing frequency. The Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stopped short of a full invasion but reserves the right to act unless the PKK are reined in. Next year could yet witness a direct conflict between the Turks and the peshmerga fighters who serve the Iraqi Kurdish authorities in the autonomous north. Syria and Saudi Arabia continue to wield considerable discretion over the flow of fighters, arms and money to the Sunni and Baathist cause in Iraq. However, the most powerful outside player is Iran a fact finally recognised by Washington when it engaged in talks on Iraqs future with Iranian repTense times . . . graffiti calls for selfdetermination in Pristina, Kosovo; police search visitors to Musa Qala in Afghanistan EPA/Valdrin Xhemaj; AP Photo/Abdul Khaleq necessary. Many Washington hawks also doubt the reliability of US intelligence, and some advocate armed action against Iran for its support of Shia militias in Iraq. The conflict in Afghanistan is just as finely balanced. The south is still in the grip of the Taliban insurgency and the region produced more opium than ever this year a stark measure of failure on the part of the government of Hamid Karzai and his Nato backers. Nato forces tried a more aggressive strategy in 2007, blocking a feared spring Taliban offensive with pre-emptive strikes. This month a combined Afghan government and Nato force retook Musa Qala, the only significant town the Taliban held. But the Taliban is far from defeated. Most of its fighters in Musa Qala melted away into the mountains, to fight another day. British forces fighting in the southern province of Helmand are aware they face a protracted war, in which political and economic programmes are as important as military strategy. In the coming months, British troops may return to another old battlefield where an initial military victory failed to usher in a political settlement. The resolution of Kosovos status had been put off repeatedly in the eight years since Serbian forces withdrew under Nato fire. Kosovos ethnic Albanian majority, with US and western European backing, has refused to accept anything less than independence, while Serbia, bolstered by Russian support, has rejected the amputation of what it sees as its historic heartland. A deadline for UN-brokered efforts to square the circle came and went on December 10 with no sign of convergence, and a declaration of independence is expected in the new year. That may trigger more ethnic clashes (hence the promised British reinforcements), but it could have even more damaging effects on other ethnic faultlines around the world. Minority regions elsewhere in the Balkans and in the Caucasus could claim Kosovo as a precedent for their own national aspirations, with the encouragement, open or implicit of Moscow. Vladimir Putin, nearing the end of his presidential term but still all-powerful, has made it clear he will not look the other way when a Slav Orthodox ally is dismembered. There has been much talk of a new cold war with Russia over US missile defence plans and Moscows suspension of the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty in retaliation. A declaration of independence by Kosovo would make the atmosphere even colder, if not more warlike. It may turn out to be a problem resolved at the expense of creating several more.

resentatives in Baghdad this year. The first three rounds of talks have been credited with improving security in Basra and Baghdad, but any progress made in Iraq is hostage to the broader rivalry between the US and Iran. A report this month by the US intelligence establishment said Iran had suspended a covert nuclear weapons programme in 2003 and probably had not restarted it. The surprising conclusion conflicted with White House rhet-

Any real agreement on fixed climate change goals will probably have to wait at least until the arrival of George Bushs successor in the White House

oric on Iran, and the threat of a military conflict before the end of the Bush presidency receded significantly. Other forms of confrontation will undoubtedly persist. Iran continues to enrich uranium in defiance of UN resolutions without any immediate civilian use for it. The only nuclear reactor anywhere near completion, in Bushehr, is supposed to run on Russian-supplied fuel. Before the American intelligence estimate came out, Russia and China had signalled their readiness to apply further UN sanctions. Although the assessment may have changed the atmosphere, it is hard to see it forestalling sanctions for long. Neither Moscow nor Beijing claim to base their security council votes on US intelligence but rather on the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has given Tehran mixed reviews on its cooperation and confirmed that uranium enrichment is under way at full tilt. The Iran crisis may have lost some urgency, but Israel does not share the optimism over Tehrans weapons programme and has declared its readiness to take unilateral action if it deems it

The Guardian Weekly 21.12.07 3

Year in review

Surge and retreat pushes Iraq to sidelines

America Ewen MacAskill
This was the Year of Surges, both in Iraq and in the race for the White House. One of the surprises was the way in which US media interest in the Iraq war faded. From January to September, the conflict was almost constant, at least on the front pages of the New York Times and the Washington Post. At the start of the year media and public attention was on President George Bushs plans for Iraq: would he announce a reduction in US troop levels? In the event he ignored public opinion and opted to send 30,000 more US troops to Iraq, the so-called surge policy. Anxious to avoid the words reinforcements or escalation, the Bush administration opted for the vaguer surge. The strategy met widespread scepticism, particularly among Democrats in Congress, who challenged the idea of sending yet more troops into the middle of a sectarian civil war. They mounted repeated attempts to force Bush to set a timetable for bringing US troops home but in the end they were unable to secure enough support from Republican senators to override Bushs veto. Month after month the steady deployment of more US troops in Iraq was accompanied by fresh outrages. The focus shifted to a report by the US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, the author of the surge strategy, to Congress in September. He announced that progress had been made and, in the weeks that followed, reports supported that assessment, with a drop in the number of attacks. There was then an immediate decline in US media interest. The assumption among US pundits had been that Iraq would be the defining issue of the US 2008 presidential contest. That assumption no longer holds. The immediate questions at election meetings in key early states were no longer where candidates stood on the war and whether they would bring the troops home, but immigration, health, education and other domestic issues. The election is the most open for 80 years, with no incumbent or vicepresident seeking the office. Earlier this year Hillary Clinton established herself as the Democratic frontrunner, with Barack Obama and John Edwards trailing her. That changed in October at a Philadelphia debate in which she was challenged on immigration, and she came across as uncertain and evasive.

The assumption was that Iraq would be the defining issue of the US presidential contest

Obama built on Clintons poor debate performance with a passionate speech in Iowa and a campaign tour of key states with the publicity-generating Oprah Winfrey. The Clinton machine remains formidable but both she and Obama have millions to spend in the caucuses and primaries in January. And Edwards too cannot be ruled out, having invested more time than either in Iowa and New Hampshire. Polls suggest little excitement among the Republican base at the prospect of any of their candidates. The surprise surge was that of Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, Baptist preacher and guitar-player, who achieved frontrunner status in spite of only limited funds compared with contenders such as Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. He went from joke candidate he has the best string of one-liners in the presidential race to someone who his rivals had to take seriously as he took the lead in the

polls in Iowa and South Carolina. And John McCain, in spite of running short of funds in the middle of the year, has managed to remain a contender with a pared-down campaign. Immigration has been one of the most contentious issues. America needs most of the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants, the bulk of them from Mexico or central America, to do the menial jobs locals largely do not want to do, but at the same time decries the increased use of Spanish in the streets and other signs of cultural change. The Hispanic population has the fastest growing birthrate in the country, adding to the anxiety of those demanding a crackdown on illegal immigration. Bush proposed a compromise plan that would allow illegal immigrants a route to legality, but such was the pressure on members of Congress, particularly Republicans, when they returned to their states at weekends, that the plan had to be abandoned. One issue largely missing from both the Republican and Democratic campaign debates was gun control, mainly because not a single candidate is proposing any, regarding the subject as too risky for anyone seeking election. Discussion on the subject emerged, although only briefly, in the aftermath of the Virginia Tech shootings in April. Seung-hui Cho, an immigrant from South Korea, shot dead 32 fellow students before killing himself. He had no problems in arming himself, even though he had a history

Battleground . . . George Bush sent 30,000 more troops to Iraq Wathiq Khuzaie /Getty Images of mental illness: Virginia has some of the laxest gun controls in the US, with people simply restricted to buying one weapon a month. When eight people were killed by another shooter in a shopping mall in December there was even less introspection about gun ownership. The supreme court opted to have the first review of gun laws fordecades, but it is looking at whether states have a right to have any controls at all. The review was prompted by Washington DC, which has a ban on handguns in the city that in the 1990s was the murder capital of America. The courts ruling is scheduled for next year. In spite of having a largely justified reputation as conservative, partly as a result of Bush appointees, the supreme court had other surprises, including looking again at the rights denied to detainees in Guantnamo to a trial and at the death penalty. With Bush entering his final year in office and the prospects receding for getting any meaningful legislation on immigration or anything else through Congress, many of those who had been with him as governor of Texas and followed him to the White House began to leave. The most high-profile was Karl Rove, the political strategist who helped Bush win the Republican nomination and then two elections.

4 The Guardian Weekly 21.12.07

Year in review

Chinese steamroller powers on, regardless of the bumps

Asia Jonathan Watts
China has dramatically increased its power over the past 12 months without firing a single shot. While the US suffered human, moral and economic sacrifices in its hot war on terror, the mandarins of Beijing have coolly expanded their nations influence on the world stage. Despite becoming the worlds biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, continued human rights abuses, tight media controls, product safety fears and an inflated speculative bubble, the talk of Asia was once again Chinas success story. Concerns were left behind by an economy that hurtled forward at a sizzling 11.6% growth rate, lifting millions out of poverty and creating thousands of new millionaires. After a six-fold surge in stock values over two years, Chinese companies have become capital-rich goliaths. In November PetroChina became the worlds first trillion-dollar company after its shares almost tripled in value within a day of floating on the Shanghai stock market. Five of the worlds 10 most valuable firms are Chinese. Thanks partly to China, 2007 was a year when Asia was once again the driver of global economic growth, the peace prospects for the Korean peninsula never looked better, and commodity prices rose around the world pushing up the incomes of many of the worlds poorest countries. The region home to almost twothirds of the worlds population is on an economic roll, albeit one punctuated by some unpleasant social, humanitarian and environmental bumps. The year started with bombs in Bangkok and ended with a devastating cyclone in Bangladesh that killed more than 3,000 people. But Asias biggest political story of 2007 was the mass demonstrations by monks in Burma. The biggest threat to the military junta in nearly two decades ended with a bloody crackdown, in which an unknown number of protesters were killed (the government says 10, foreign embassies estimate hundreds) and at least 3,000 arrested. India which is also growing at an impressive 9% per year got its first female president, when Pratibha Patil took the largely ceremonial position in July. Japan slipped back into a pattern of political deadlock and slow economic growth after the opposition Democratic party seized control of the upper house. Shinzo Abe quit as prime minister after less than a year following corruption and pension scandals. His successor, Yasuo Fukuda, will do well to last even 20 months the average term of the past 19 prime ministers. The real surprise in Asia was the dramatic thaw on the Korean peninsula, which was rocked last year by Pyongyangs first nuclear bomb test. That explosion appeared to shake all parties into compromise mode at six-nation talks hosted by China. Kim Jong-il ordered the suspension of the Yongbyon reactor. The US held out the prospect of economic aid and diplomatic recognition. The outgoing South Korean president, Roh Moohyun, made his first visit across the border to Pyongyang and the international community rallied to provide aid after the North was hit in August by its worst floods in decades. Tougher negotiations over dismantling the weapons lie ahead, but for the moment relations have hit an unusually harmonious note. Duller, but more important, was the 17th Communist party congress Chinas most important political event in five years. President Hu Jintao emerged certain that he will remain leader until 2012. He secured support for his concept of scientific development, which aims at environmentally sustainable development and a more open process of decision-making and promotion within the ruling party. It is far from democracy, but there is a greater diffusion of authority than in the past. This was notable in the compromises Hu had to make in selecting a successor. In a highly ritualistic unveiling of a new politburo standing committee, Xi Jinping, the party secretary of Shanghai, took the stage ahead of the presidents choice Li Keqiang, who is now second favourite. Among the toughest challenges facing the politburo is the speculative

Despite green promises there is no clear commitment to trim carbon emissions

Pakistan and Afghanistan take rocky paths

Declan Walsh
Pakistan celebrated its 60th birthday this year, marking the painful separation from India in 1947. But the party was overshadowed by a rollercoaster of violence, political showdowns and legal dramas that triggered a grave crisis of governance and underlined the fragility of the military-dominated, nuclear armed state. Gun battles erupted in the capital, Islamabad, high theatre gripped the supreme court and, by years end, draconian emergency rule was imposed. Above all, the year was defined by the showdown between the general and the judge. On March 9 President Pervez Musharraf fired the independentminded chief justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. It was to prove a momentous blunder. Chaudhry refused to go the first time in Pakistans history that a civilian had so publicly defied a military ruler. A protest movement, led by lawyers in suits, rumbled in the streets. Within weeks it swept the country fuelled by blanket coverage from a plethora of feisty new television stations. Chaudhry was placed under house arrest. Then the confrontation turned violent when supporters of the MQM, a pro-Musharraf party, opened fire on a demonstration in Karachi that left 43 people dead. Musharraf, the self-styled champion of the people, watched his popularity plummet. Then in July, the supreme court ruled in favour of the judge. Whooping lawyers poured onto the streets but the elation was short-lived. For decades Pakistans military establishment had used Islamist fighters as a proxy force. But after Musharraf threw his weight behind the US-led war on terror in 2001, the relationship became increasingly strained. This year the Islamist monster reared on its former master, and bit hard. A spate of suicide bombs hit major cities. One attacker penetrated a high-security military compound in Tarbela Dam, killing elite commandos as they ate their supper. An ill-fated peace pact with the militants in Waziristan, along the Afghan border, collapsed, and fighting sucked in 100,000 regular and paramilitary troops. The radicalist wave lapped as far as Islamabad. At the Red Mosque seminary students attempted to foist sharia law on their

The Guardian Weekly 21.12.07 5

Modern times . . . a Chinese worker delivers a TV in Shanghai; monks clash with police in Burma Claro Cortes IV/Reuters; Ho/EPA a propaganda tool to highlight Chinas achievement in lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty. A host of spectacular new buildings will be unveiled in the next few months to show the rapid advances made by the country. But the arrival of more than 20,000 foreign reporters, half a million tourists and, no doubt, several human rights groups is likely to cast an unflattering light on repression in Tibet, the lack of media freedom, land seizures, dire pollution and the detention without trial of dissidents and petitioners. Several of the Communist partys most vocal critics have already been put in prison or re-education-throughlabour camps. Nothing is being allowed to spoil the Olympic party, which has forced China to make compromises. After Mia Farrow and other Hollywood activists started to call for an Olympic boycott over Chinas support for Sudan, Beijing reversed its policy of non-interference and lobbied behind the scenes for a UN-backed peace deal in Darfur. Pressure is likely to grow in other areas. After years of fruitless talks with Beijing, the Dalai Lama has taken a more assertive position regarding the future of Tibet by proposing a vote on his successor. Taiwans president Chen Shui-bian is also pushing the envelope in his last months in power with a referendum on UN membership. Beijing views this as a possible step towards independence, which it has promised to prevent even if it means war. So far Chinas leaders have preferred to use soft rather than hard power to head off conflicts and expand their influence. It is hard to imagine that will change ahead of the Olympics. The real test will come after that national coming-out party is over, values are reassessed and people start to ask: OK. Weve done that. What next?

bubble. There is a danger that the government could lose control of its juggernaut economy. The trade surplus is expected to rise more than 50% this year, increasing foreign exchange reserves already at a record $1.4 trillion at a rate of a billion dollars a day. With the nation awash with cash, inflation, particularly of food prices, has risen to an 11-year high. The assumption among the mass ranks of new investors is that the government will not allow a destabilising correction until after the Olympics. The product safety outcry that dominated many of the headlines in 2007 showed concerns about Chinas rise. From toys to toothpaste, the reliability of goods made in the workshop of the world was suddenly called into question. Given Chinas huge output, the numbers of faulty products were not great. While there were genuine concerns about many products, the huge outcry was as much a reflection of wider fears about China. Can it be trusted? Is it safe? Is it threatening? These were expressed most loudly in the US and other nations that have most to lose from the rise of a new superpower. Pentagon reports noted that Chinas military power is on the rise with its defence spending up by 18% the fastest rate in more than 10 years as the Peoples Liberation

Army accelerated its modernisation programme. Its technological prowess was evident in January, when China successfully tested its first anti-satellite missile, followed in October by the launch of its first moon probe. Britain, Germany and the US also warned that Chinese hackers were attempting to break into sensitive computer systems in an apparent shift towards asymmetrical information warfare. Of greater concern were reports that China has overtaken the US as the worlds biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. Despite government promises to develop a green model of growth, there was no clear commitment to trim carbon output. With the economy mostly fuelled by coal, it is likely to be warming the globe more than any other country for decades. Chinese leaders know they ignore the environment at their peril. Even when they are not getting accused of being climate villains overseas, they risk unrest at home if they fail to deal with pollution. One of the biggest demonstrations of the year occurred in the relatively affluent city of Xiamen in Fujian province, when residents took to the streets to protest against plans for a new chemical plant. Next years Olympics is another unpredictable force for change. The government hopes to use the event as

Jubilation on Independence Day soon turned to gloom in Pakistan

neighbourhood. Led by fundamentalist preachers, they kidnapped prostitutes and police officers. By July Musharraf was forced to act, a nine-day siege culminated in a shootout that left more than 100 people dead. The news was equally grim in neighbouring Afghanistan. The Taliban insurgency spread its tentacles and by December provinces on three sides of Kabul were rife with insecurity. The militants were no match for the 40,000-strong Nato coalitions withering firepower but the Taliban did achieve two important objectives to restrict the western coalition and isolate the ever weaker government of President Hamid Karzai. The drugs trade swelled the Taliban

war chest. Helmand was the worlds largest source of illegal drugs, the UN despondently noted, greater than Colombia, Burma and Morocco combined. By years end US soldiers posted to Afghanistan had a greater chance of being killed than in Iraq. But the greatest risk was borne by ordinary Afghans. At least 6,000 people died, many in Nato bombings, making it the bloodiest year since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. In Pakistan politics and militancy fused to deadly effect with the return of Benazir Bhutto. Musharraf dropped a slew of corruption charges against the former prime minister in exchange for a possible powersharing deal. But their shotgun marriage had a calamitous start. A jubi-

lant procession for Bhutto in Karachi turned to carnage when a suicide bomber struck. Bhutto survived but at least 140 people died. Musharraf imposed emergency rule, suspending the constitution, ordering more than 5,000 opponents to be rounded up. The supreme court bench was fired and Chaudhry was returned to house arrest. Musharraf tried to deflate stinging international criticism by scheduling elections for January 8. He also defied popular belief by resigning as army chief. But his problems deepened with the surprise return of his bitter rival and another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif. A host of problems remain. Nothing looks less certain than a smooth transition.

6 The Guardian Weekly 21.12.07

Year in review

EU united only in its resistance to Russia

Europe Ian Traynor
For Angela Merkel it was a very good year. Nicolas Sarkozy, catapulted into the Elyse Palace, also relished 2007. In Turkey and Poland 2007 marked a change in national and international politics. For Gordon Brown, the year was a dream come true, except that by years end it was a bad dream. The year in Europe started and ended with a treaty. In January the Germans took over the six-month EU presidency and Merkel signalled her determination to salvage Europes constitution from the dustbin of history. Few rated her chances of success. Years in the making, the constitution was killed off by No votes in French and Dutch referendums in 2005. Merkels big idea was to give it another name Europes reform treaty retain almost all the new elements, and avoid any need for popular votes. In substance the new treaty replicated the dead constitution. It envisaged a sitting European president, a new system of voting and the abolition of national vetoes on a host of issues, and the beginnings of a European foreign service headed by a minister. In form, however, the new deal was the opposite of the old charter. It was negotiated in secret over six months a heap of legalisms, amendments, protocols and annexes. If the treaty was to make the EU more efficient, it seemed destined to keep it unloved and remote. By June the leaders agreed on the new treaty framework, by October on the text. And by December it was signed in Lisbon by European government chiefs. Gordon Brown showed up late to add his signature. Merkel had already left. But the achievement was hers. She also used her presidency to steer through an ambitious EU pact on global warming, getting Europe to agree to 20% cuts in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020; 20% of its energy should come from renewable sources by then. It remains to be seen if the pledges will be redeemed, but Europe is at the forefront of global efforts. Sarkozys seizure of the Elyse in May and Browns takeover of Downing Street in July appeared to put pragmatic national leaders in charge of the EU, suggesting a more dynamic leadership. But bad personal chemistry is frustrating the promise. Sarkozy and Merkel are temperamental opposites, the French leader intuitive and obsessed with claiming credit, while Merkel is quiet, methodical, unobtrusive, and systematic. Temporary harmony . . . Nicolas Sarkozy meets Angela Merkel Eric Feferberg/AFP/Getty ski twins, president Lech and prime minister Jaroslaw, spent the year supplanting the UK as Europes leading troublemaker. The Poles vetoed EU deals with Russia, and enraged the Germans through their politically incorrect insistence on constantly raising the second world war. By October the Kaczynski government was viewed at home and abroad as embarrassing. Jaroslaw was drummed out of office, replaced by the liberal conservative Donald Tusk. He is already successfully repairing the damage with Moscow and Berlin. In the longer term, the Polish national interest will have to be granted greater accommodation in the councils of Europe and it will remain an awkward customer. The Poles, of course, have been warning the rest of Europe for years about Vladimir Putin. It 2007 the rest of Europe finally began to wake up and take notice. The wake-up call came from Putin himself. Before an audience of US and European leaders in Munich in February he delivered a breathtakingly aggressive speech. His audience was stunned. Russia and Europe, and the West more broadly, became embroiled in bad-tempered rows over arms control, missile defence, human rights, energy supplies, and foreign policy hotspots. The year ended with an EU summit deciding on its first nation-building mission, to dispatch officials, police, judges, prosecutors and administrators to Kosovo to play midwife to the birth of a European state. Serbia, with strong Russian support, opposes this. The argument will rage over the international legal basis for the European policy, with Russia blocking agreement in the UN security council and denying the Europeans a new UN mandate for the operation. The dispute over Kosovo has turned into a dangerous zero-sum game. Europe or Russia will win or lose. Russia has deployed its cold war weapon of trying to split the West. Its an easy option one large authoritarian state against 27 very different countries with widely divergent interests and priorities. Finland has a different view of Russia from Portugal, but the Poles are feeling vindicated and pro-Russian bits of the EU are chastened. It is difficult to fashion unity and consensus in the EU in a crisis. But the Kremlins tactics may have served as a catalyst. The Europeans remain divided over Kosovo, but if they cave in, they will be seen to have capitulated to the Kremlin. And there will be hell to pay.

There are rows over arms control, missile defence, rights, energy and foreign policy

The frictions were an opportunity for Britains traditional strategy of wielding influence in Europe by allying itself with one party against another. But Browns detachment looked more likely to minimise UK clout in Brussels. He irritated Merkel by boycotting a Lisbon summit with African leaders and then missing the signing ceremony. Politically, he was at odds with Sarkozy on Turkey, economic policy, the future of Europe. The stakes are high here. Just when the EU has agreed on a new foreign minister to spearhead common policy-making, the in-tray is already full with potential crises in relations with

Turkey, Russia, and what to do about Serbias province of Kosovo, where the ethnic Albanian leadership is about to declare independence. In Turkey the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was confronted by coup threats from the powerful military and fought by the Ankara apparatchiks who believe they are entitled to lay down the law. The power struggle was described as a fight between secularism and Islamism, although it wasnt. Erdogan called the militarys bluff, announced an early election, had a landslide victory, put the army chiefs back in their box, and got his man, Abdullah Gul, in the presidency. It was a triumph for democracy and challenged Europe to deliver on its promises of EU membership. Sarkozys arrival in power made France the most vocal opponent of Turkish membership, and in Europe, Sarkozy may be winning the argument. Britain, as the main advocate for Turkey, finds itself leading dwindling supporters, with even natural allies such as Denmark or The Netherlands being anti-Turkish. Britain is dependent for support on the newer EU members of central Europe, led by Poland. In Warsaw the adversarial Kaczyn-

The Guardian Weekly 21.12.07 7

Year in review

Hope amid conflict as leopards stir

War without end . . . displaced Somalian women wait for food in Merka, 100km south of Mogadishu Jose Cendon/AFP/Getty Images

Africa Xan Rice

Sub-Saharan Africa saw a year of conflict and crises on one side of the continent and peace and progress on the other. The year began with war in the Horn of Africa, and seems destined to end that way. Somalia, anarchic since 1991, was at the heart of it. On New Years Day an Islamist movement that had brought peace to much of Somalia folded before the invading Ethiopian army. The US took Ethiopias side, bombing fleeing Islamist fighters and helping interrogate Somalis crossing into Kenya. Instead of simply installing Somalias weak government in the capital, Mogadishu, and withdrawing, Ethiopia became bogged down by Islamistled insurgents. By the end of the year fighting had caused 600,000 people to flee. Eritrea, which has a dangerous unresolved border dispute with Ethiopia, added to regional instability by openly hosting Somalias Islamist leaders. Inside Ethiopia a long-simmering rebellion by the Ogaden National Liberation Front burst into life in April, when rebels attacked a Chinese-run oil installation near the Somali border. The government crackdown, which included a food blockade, was harsh enough to prompt a UN investigation. Further west the people of Sudan were faring little better. The authorities in South Sudan, who will vote on secession from Khartoum in two years, pulled out of the national government,

blaming President Omar al-Bashir for failing to honour key points of the peace agreement that ended the 20year north-south war in 2005. Meanwhile the conflict and misery in the western state of Darfur continued. A conference in Libya achieved little as key rebel leaders refused to attend. The African Union peacekeepers came under frequent attack, losing 15 soldiers in two incidents. After several years of pressure Bashir agreed to allow the UN to join the peacekeeping mission and more than triple the size of the force, but put so many obstacles in place that the planned deployment by year-end was impossible. The spillover of the Darfur conflict into neighbouring Chad worsened, prompting the European Union to agree to send peacekeepers to the border with Sudan. A French charity, Zoes Ark, hatched a plan to fly more than 100 Darfur orphans from Chad to France. Local police intervened, arresting the French charity workers. Six were put on trial. Most of the children were not orphans, and were from Chad, not Darfur. Further south the Democratic Republic of Congo marked its first year of real democracy, although not without incident. In March, clashes between government troops and bodyguards of Jean-Pierre Bemba, defeated by President Joseph Kabila in a 2006 poll, left hundreds dead in Kinshasa. Bemba left for Europe. The east remained highly restive, with hundreds of thousands displaced by fighting between government forces and rebels allied to the renegade general Laurent Nkunda.

Zimbabwe was seldom far from the headlines. As the economic crisis worsened, inflation rose to more than 10,000% before a shortage of basic goods made calculations impossible. The opposition organised prayer rallies to protest the countrys descent, prompting a brutal response. The opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai was among 50 activists arrested and beaten. The exodus to South Africa increased to a flood. President Robert Mugabe carried on as strong as ever. There was better news elsewhere. The World Bank reported that African countries were expected to record average growth of 5.4% in 2007, comparable to global rates and better than many advanced economies. Pointing to positive performances between 1995 and 2005, the Bank concluded that many African economies appear to have turned the corner and moved to a path of faster and steadier economic growth that could cut poverty rates and attract global investment. A handful of countries could break

Discontent in Nigeria has spawned a violent culture and kidnapping has risen dramatically

from the pack and become leopards, cheetahs, or whatever the African equivalent of an Asian tiger would be, said John Page, the Banks chief economist for Africa. Star performers included Mozambique, whose former leader Joachim Chissano was awarded a $5m good governance prize from the AngloSudanese telecoms millionaire Mo Ibrahim, and Rwanda, Botswana and Uganda. Top of the list, however, were the big oil exporters such as Nigeria and Angola, whose growth was expected to be boosted by high oil prices. Not that oil wealth leads to poverty reduction of course. In Nigeria people living in the oil-rich Delta region are among the poorest on earth. The discontent has helped spawn a violent criminal culture, and the kidnap of foreign oil workers for ransom increased dramatically before a change of government seemed to bring some calm. The April poll was a shambles, but new president Umaru YarAdua impressed many in his first few months. In Ghana there were celebrations as oil was discovered offshore. Further along the Gulf of Guinea, Ivory Coast continued its recovery from civil war, while Liberias progress under Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf was boosted by debt write-offs worth billions of dollars. Further north a handful of elections passed off peacefully. Senegalese president Abdoulaye Wade comfortably returned to power, winning more than half of the vote, as did Amadou Toumani Tour in neighbouring Mali. In Sierra Leone the opposition candidate Ernest Bai Koroma was sworn in.

8 The Guardian Weekly 21.12.07 32 The Guardian Weekly 21.12.07

Year in review

Continent just gets a word in edgeways

South America Rory Carroll
Ask Hugo Chvez a question and odds are the next 36 minutes will be interesting. That is the average length of the Venezuelan presidents replies, by my count, and every one is a rhetorical odyssey. Ask about oil prices or a diplomatic row and there may be musings on a childhood game of baseball, a ballad from the plains or discourses on Noam Chomsky and the importance of a good diet before you get the answer. When I asked about a plan to abolish term limits, a controversial proposal that could keep the president in power for life, it was like opening a can of Coke that had been given a good, long shake. Chvez erupted. The cynicism of this reporter! The cynicism of the Guardian! Of Europe! The president, if you believed this performance, was affronted and shocked. Europe! A bastion of racism and colonialism. An empire of hypocrisy. How dare it challenge his democratic credentials. The harangue ranged over genocidal slave traders, the perfidy of the Commonwealth, the theft of the Falklands, the unelected authority of the Queen. That was just the warm-up. I was a guest on his weekly TV show Al Presidente (episode 291), being broadcast live from a scorching Caribbean beach. As the insults rained down the cameras zoomed in on my every twitch. By the end I was very sweaty and slightly famous. And I had a story. There is a reason the Guardian based its Latin America bureau in Caracas and it is called Hugo Chvez. The man is a news machine. A hyperkinetic, caffeine-fuelled bona fide radical at the helm of an oil power in an era of record prices. He dominated Latin Americas headlines throughout 2007 by seeming to be everywhere and everything: revolutionary, statesman, clown, bully, charmer, megalomaniac. My trips abroad always felt like a risk. While tramping up a Peruvian peak anything could be happening back in Venezuela, and knowing Chvez it probably was. Inaugurated in January after a landslide re-election, his self-styled socialist revolution went into overdrive. He nationalised key industries, founded a political party, ended the terrestrial licence of an opposition TV station and proposed overhauling the constitution. He called George Bush a devil, bear-hugged Irans President Statesman, clown, bully . . . the president of Venezuela, Hugo Chvez, has dominated news from South America Eamonn McCabe months lifting of price controls on one type of milk, an un-socialist measure to boost production, showed his pragmatic streak. If other distortions are addressed and oil prices remain high, the looming economic crunch many predict could be avoided. The problem with Venezuela is the ubiquity of Chvez. Murals, newspapers, radio, TV, conversations with strangers, he is everywhere. On a break from Caracas I took a boat to a remote island and swam to an even more remote one but it was no use. A middle-class family had moored there and was absurdly blaming Chvez for broken beer bottles in the sand. He encouraged louts to come here! It was refreshing to cover significant events elsewhere. Bolivia and Ecuador, which also have charismatic leftwing leaders, followed the Chvez playbook in revising their constitutions. In the former it stalled; it roared ahead in the latter. The so-called pink tide proved largely an Andean phenomenon. In central America and the southern cone there was a remarkably consistent picture of centrist governments presiding over decent growth rates and relative political stability. Argentina produced its first elected woman president, Cristina Kirchner, but the giddy comparisons to Evita and Hillary Clinton were mostly foreign hype. Argentines embraced her as a continuation of her husband Nestor, the outgoing president credited with the countrys economic rebound. A look over the Chilean border at President Michelle Bachelets year of blunders showed how the feel-good novelty of a female leader can swiftly curdle. Kirchner will earn her stripes if she keeps the recovery on track and soothes restless unions and business leaders. Argentinas economic weight and her flamboyant glamour will make her a rival to Chvez for the worlds attention. In Latin America however there is no question who is the bigger star. Chvez has bought up billions of dollars of Argentine debt and, it is alleged, secretly funded Kirchners election campaign. True or not, clearly he holds more cards. Venezuelas president boasts that he is ugly. A subjective judgment. To Diego Maradona, at least, his appeal remains undiminished. The footballer announced this week that he was going to get a Chvez tattoo.

Cue a caffeine-fuelled hyperkinetic bona fide radical with oil flow in an era of record prices

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, tangled with the king of Spain. It all made good copy and Chvez eclipsed his ailing mentor, Fidel Castro, as Latin Americas leading global figure. Newsworthy events did happen elsewhere. After all, this is a region of more than 20 countries and 550 million people. There was an earthquake in Peru, hurricanes in the Caribbean, drug wars in Mexico, political convulsions in Bolivia and Ecuador, a woman prime minister booted out in Jamaica and a woman president voted in in Argentina. Brazil found oil, Nicaraguas Sandinistas found Catholic fundamentalism and Mexicos voters found they rather liked their new president, Felipe Calderon. There was also the murder of a cricket coach in Jamaica, which turned

out probably not to be a murder and the discovery of a canoeists widow in Panama who turned out not to be a widow. An eclectic year but with one abiding constant, Chvez. His gaffes, spats and stunts were endless. And distracting. Meatier, more complicated stories unfolded that better signalled where Venezuela was headed. This was the year Chvez overreached. A nascent student movement galvanised the fragmented, moribund opposition into narrowly defeating the referendum on constitutional changes that would have cemented presidential power and enshrined socialism. It was the first time in a decade the commandante failed to mobilise his people, and in the hillside barrios of Petare and Catia we heard why: violent crime, uncollected rubbish, crumbling hospitals, shortages of milk, sugar and eggs. Most people still adored mi presidente but bristled at the ever-longer speeches and the fancy talk of new geometries of power and 21st-century socialism. Patience could fray further as inflation surges to 20% and exchange controls create more economic bottlenecks. Chvez ends the year down but not out. He has five years left in office, well-honed political skills, control of all important state institutions and $1bn weekly oil revenues. This

The Guardian Weekly 21.12.07 9

Year in review

Labor bursts out of the desert

Australia Barbara McMahon
Out with the old and in with the new is an apt phrase to describe events in Australia. After 11 years in power, the conservative prime minister, John Howard, was swept out of office in November, also losing his parliamentary seat, by an electorate who saw him as old, complacent and out of touch. Voters switched their allegiance to the Labor leader Kevin Rudd, a generation younger than Howard, who promised fresh leadership and said he would take the country in a new direction. The 50-year-old former diplomat hit the ground running after his decisive win, signing the Kyoto agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which his predecessor refused to ratify, going to the UN Bali climate summit and declaring that Australia had finally taken its head out of the sand on the dangers of climate change. The new prime minister also took the first steps to pull his countrys 500 combat troops out of Iraq by mid2008, although he has pledged to keep forces in Afghanistan. Rudd further confounded critics who predicted he would be in thrall to the unions and extremists within the Labor party by appointing a cabinet based on merit, including Julia Gillard, the countrys first female deputy prime minister. On the domestic front his governments priorities for next year are implementing an education revolution in which every high school student will gain access to a computer, a plan that will take three years, putting further emphasis on technical education and Asian languages and bringing in a standard national curriculum. Tackling the countrys creaking healthcare system and rolling back workplace reforms introduced by the Howard government, which were seen to benefit employers to the detriment of workers, are also on the agenda. Rudds most important test, however, will be his handling of the economy. Many of the Australians who voted for him were former Howard battlers, blue-collar workers who felt betrayed by successive interest rate rises that hit their mortgage payments. Household debt is now at record levels and many young couples are stuck in the rental market because they cannot afford to buy a first home. Rudd, who ran on the promise of being a fiscal conservative, has promised to address their concerns and says fighting inflation will be his

Greener days ahead? . . . The Big Dry may be ending and Kevin Rudd, below, has signed the Kyoto protocol Reuters number one priority in the coming year. Further interest rate rises from the Reserve Bank are on the cards, however, and financial analysts say the only way Rudd can keep a tight leash on the economy will be careful control of public expenditure. That may mean cutting back on some of the promises he made during the election campaign, including A$31bn ($27bn) of tax cuts promised to mostly middleand lower-income workers. Australia continues to search for solutions to the problems plaguing its indigenous population, who numbers 450,000 out of a total of 21 million. This year a report presented to the World Health Organisation said the standard of health of Aborigines lags almost 100 years behind that of other Australians, with some indigenous people still suffering from leprosy, rheumatic heart disease and tuberculosis. On average Aborigines have a life expectancy 17 years below that of their fellow countrymen and have far higher rates of joblessness and incarceration. A report, Little Children Are Sacred, published later in the year, revealed child sex abuse was widespread in communities in the Northern Territory, largely fuelled by rivers of grog. It prompted the previous government to implement a highly controversial intervention in the regions 45 communities, which included banning alcohol, quarantining welfare payments and scrapping the permit system that restricts entry into the communities. The intervention, slammed by some observers as paternalistic and implemented without due consultation, was welcomed by some indigenous leaders who admitted their communities need help. It is due to be reviewed in the coming year. Next year Rudd will overturn another of his predecessors policies by making a formal apology to Aborigines for the many injustices they have suffered since white settlers arrived in Australia 220 years ago. The apology will focus on members of the Stolen Generation, named after the hundreds of Aboriginal children, many of them mixed race, who were taken from their families and sent to live with white families or put in boarding schools in a policy of assimilation that lasted until the 1970s. The apology, which will be worded in consultation with indigenous leaders, is bound to be controversial. Rudd, however, has made it clear that he does not expect it to lead to a flood of compensation claims. Meanwhile there are signs that Australias ongoing drought, nicknamed The Big Dry, may finally be coming to an end. The Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed that the long-awaited La Nia event in the Pacific, the first since 1998, has brought wet conditions to some parts of the continent, providing relief to parched lands and to drought-weary farmers. The La Nia weather pattern is expected to bring wetter and more humid weather across parts of Australia and will persist until February. Weather experts say, however, that it is too early to declare the drought over because consistent rainfalls strong enough to replenish dry river beds and fill up diminished lakes and reservoirs have yet to materialise. Australias strange weather patterns were in continuing evidence last week. As firefighters battled to contain bushfires that broke out on Kangaroo Island, South Australia, hailstones the size of cricket balls caused millions of dollars in damage to cars and homes in New South Wales.

Rudd confounded critics by picking a cabinet based on merit

10 The Guardian Weekly 21.12.07

Year in review

Goodbye Tony, hello Gordon and trouble

Britain Derek Brown
Gordon Brown probably thought he was going to have a lovely 2007. After all, he would almost certainly move into No 10 Downing Street without too much Tony Blair mess sticking to him. The chancellor hadnt been implicated in the cash for honours scandal, he wasnt a principal architect of the Iraq calamity, and he had already presided over a decade of steady economic prosperity. Indeed the first half of the year went swimmingly for the prime minister-in-waiting. In his last budget he shocked the Conservative opposition by announcing a two-pence cut in the standard rate of income tax. It didnt mean much, as he was clawing the tax back in other forms, but it was a masterly bit of Commons theatre. Blair, however, had a torrid last few months at the top. The honours scandal wouldnt go away, and he achieved the unenviable distinction of becoming the first serving prime minister to be interviewed by the police. Then there was the stench of corruption around arms giant BAE, which was under investigation for allegedly handing out lavish backhanders it was rumoured up to 1bn to secure a massive aircraft deal with Saudi Arabia. The inquiry was abruptly halted by the prime minister in the national interest, although of which nation was not altogether clear. Given the mood of cynicism and disillusion, the Blair era ended on a surprisingly generous and sentimental note. After his last limp appearance in the Commons Well, thats it, he observed he was given a standing ovation by both sides of the House. He lost no time in giving up his Sedgefield constituency seat and taking on two new roles: Middle East peace envoy and writer of lucrative memoirs. Brown slid into the job he had lusted after for more than 10 years with illconcealed satisfaction. He promised change and restored trust in government. It all sounded good, and the polls reflected it, reversing Labours dismal standing under Blair and giving Brown a lead so robust that there was soon speculation that he would call a snap election. The Westminster rumour-mill spun madly until the Conservatives autumn conference, at which the party leader, David Cameron, gave a stonking speech, without notes or autocue, accusing Labour (accurately) of blatant theft of his partys ideas and policies. Suddenly the Brown band-

wagon squealed to a halt. As Tory poll ratings soared, he proclaimed that, having carefully weighed the evidence, he had decided that a quick election would be a bad idea. It was one of those turning points that make political journalism exciting. Having earned the derision of the pundits, Brown then suffered several political pratfalls. Northern Rock, a mortgage-based bank with a reputation for ruthless expansion, had come close to collapse, with savers queuing to withdraw their money. It had had to be bailed out by the Bank of England to the mind-boggling extent of 30bn, and still counting. Then the new chancellor, Alistair Darling, was obliged to admit to a shocked Commons that computer discs containing the personal data of 25 million people, had been lost in the post. And follow-

Having earned the derision of the pundits, Brown suffered a series of pratfalls

ing that came the revelation that David Abrahams, a hitherto obscure northern property developer, had poured some 600,000 into the Labour party through intermediaries, which is illegal. Away from politics, there was much to ponder in the social landscape. There was evidence of the gun and knife culture that has urban youth in its grip. In just one week in March eight young people were stabbed to death. In August 11-year-old Rhys Jones was killed by a random bullet in Merseyside. As the casual slaughter continued, the authorities seemed incapable of responding. The respect so badly needed by the police was further undermined by the finding of a London jury that the Metropolitan force had suffered catastrophic failings in its conduct of the operation that led officers to shoot Jean Charles de Menezes, a young Brazilian, in Stockwell underground station in London in July 2005 in the mistaken belief that he was a terrorist suspect. Scotland Yards chief, Sir Ian Blair, declined to resign. True, the Royals had a tolerable year. The Queen was traduced by a BBC news tape purportedly showing her throwing a wobbly during a shoot by the photographer Annie Leibovitz. But the tape had been doctored by an independent production company. The BBC was obliged to grovel. Prince Harry, third in line to the

throne, swallowed his pride when the army declined to send him to Iraq with his regiment. He was also obliged to deny any involvement in the killing of two rare hen harriers on the royal estate at Sandringham, when he just happened to be out shooting with chums. There was a good sprinkling of nonsense to leaven the news. We learned of the leisure pastime called tombstoning, which involves drunk people jumping off cliffs into the sea. Some survive. Police in East Sussex found that rowdy drinking coincided with full moons, and put out extra patrols. Enid Blyton was revealed to have woven nasty little digs against her husband into her childrens yarns. We had to say farewell to some people who will be sadly missed. Alan Coren, 69, was one of the funniest people in the media, whose trenchant, slightly tetchy wit was informed by acute powers of observation. George Melly, who amazingly lasted until 80, was a splendid jazz singer and a bon viveur. Bill Deedes, 94, was an ex-cabinet minister, an ex-Daily Telegraph editor, and by common consent the prototype of William Boot in Evelyn Waughs immortal novel Scoop. Anita Roddick, radical businesswoman and founder of the Body Shop, died suddenly 64. The Reverend Chad Varah was taken at the venerable age of 95, and Lord Ian Gilmour, from the wet end of the Tory party, left us at 81.