Timer Digest
February 16, 2004
(Page Down)
3
Summary and Outlook
Next Issue to be mailedon March 8, 2004
ince the January 26, Is-sue, the stock market asmeasured by the DowJones Industrial Average,
S
gained 59.56 points and closed at10,627.85 on February 13.In the period, economic newsand corporate earning reports contin-ued to show that the recovery is gain-ing strength. However, the most im-portant area of investor concern is theemployment data. While job growthhas improved, it is lagging expecta-tions and there is fear that this willcontinue to be a jobless recovery. Butoverall, there are encouraging signsthat job creation is underway and willlikely gain momentum as the recov-ery begins to accelerate.Other positives for investors in-clude low inflation reports, and thebelief that the Federal Reserve willcontinue to favor low interest rates inthe months ahead. Although theMiddle East continues to be very dan-gerous, there are positive signs of im-provement that the long period of heal-ing that is needed may finally be un-derway. There is also new hope thatIran and North Korea will be headingtoward compliance with their nuclearprograms, now that Libya has comeforward and committed to end theirprograms and permit inspections of their sites.Although the stock market hasbeen edging higher, many techniciansare concerned that the market may beahead of itself and is due for a correc-tion or consolidation before the nextsustainable advance gets underway.Longer term, many advisors remainconstructive on the stock market forthe balance of the year.
Currently, the Consensus of the Top Ten is Bullish with 7 Bullsand 3 Bears.Larry Czelusta is Bearish.
Hesays market action has been somewhatmixed, which is not uncommon duringtransitional periods.
George Slezak is Bullish.
Hesaid the target of new highs on the Dow(not the NASDAQ) by the end of Aprilmay begin to sound more realistic aswe see shifting (divergence) from smallcaps to Dow Industrial type blue chipsstocks.
George Dagnino is Bullish.
Hesaid the economy is strong, the ISMreport, income, home sales, consumerconfidence, and the sharp decline in un-employment claims reflect solid busi-ness conditions.
Steven Check is Bullish.
Withfixed Income returns near historic lows,he believes selected equities are attrac-tive at current levels and have the po-tential of returns of over 20% in theyear ahead.
John Buckingham is Bullish.
He believes it is an especially goodtime for longer-term oriented investorsto be buying equities in anticipation of capital gains opportunities.
Robert Morrow is Bearish.
Hebelieves the stock market is vulnerableto a correction that will likely continueinto a March.
Joseph Granville is Bearish.
He reviewed dozens of charts and allof them were declining sharply off theirJanuary highs, and he expects the weak-ness to spread over the next few days.
Steve Todd is Bullish.
He doesnot expect much in the way of a reac-tion to the downside and believes theintermediate term uptrend seems toostrong at the present time.
James Stack is Bullish.
He ex-pects interest rates to remain low andsaid the Federal Reserve isn’t about totighten if it means the stock market getstorpedoed, and drags the economyback into a recession.
Dan Sullivan is Bullish.
His is stillmonitoring his list of potential buy candi-dates, but has decided to hold off a bitlonger before making new recommenda-tions, but overall, his advice to maintainall current positions is unchanged.
The comments which follow areprovided in response to subscriber re-quests that previous “Timers of theYear” be monitored on a continuing ba-sis, despite their absence from the cur-rent rankings.Gerald Appel of Systems andForecasts is Bullish.
He said a key indi-cator of his remains positive and is hold-ing its ground in very bullish territory.
Stan Harley of the Harley MarketLetter is Neutral.
He on the sidelineswaiting for his indicators to confirm thenext uptrend that he expects within the nextfew weeks.
Steven Hochberg
and
Pete Kendall
have provided the following evaluationfrom
The Elliott Wave Financial Fore-cast.
“2004 outlook: a major reversal invirtually every financial trend.”
Michael Gibbons of Gibbons’trading is Bearish.
He said we are com-pleting a weak bear market rally that is ter-minating in this time period according tohis model.
Howard Winell of the Winell Re-port is Bearish.
He believes there is achance of a 5% to 10% correction thatshould become a great buying opportunityfor the continuation of the longer-termuptrend.
Please check the Hotline for thelatest updates. The Hotline is updatedevery Wednesday and Saturday by 7:00p.m. ET, with special updates as neces-sary
.
Leave a Comment