ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC
Each poll's “n” , or number of respondents/ sample size, is divided by the totalnumber of respondents to get the Initial Weight for each poll in the projector. A Time Penalty is then assessed based on time elasped since last day of mostrecent poll. A Subjective amount that reduces the value of a single poll over time. Roundabout uses a 0.013 reduction of each poll's weighted value as apercentage of total “N” per week. Each week is counted back from the last dayof the most recent poll and rounded to nearest week.The algorithm is:
(Weight of Poll's “N” – Time Penalty ) x Poll “N” = Real WeightThis value is then applied to each poll for each regions results.
Applying “Poll of Polls” to Constituency Projections.
Each Regional “Poll of Polls” is applied to each constituency result from the2009 Election. In the cases of Vancouver-Point Grey,Chilliwack-Hope and PortMoody-Coquitlam have all had by-elections. These results have been applied tothe projection at a weight of .333, with 2009 results being weighted at .666. Thereasoning for having by-election results weight lower are due to a few factorsthat include lower voter turn out, poor track record of incumbent governments inby-elections. However, being the most recent results can not be completelyignored, and must be included in the projection.In the case of the four (4) Independent incumbent MLAs. A general rule isapplied to Incumbent MLAs that are running again but have left there party sincethe 2009 election. There are currently 3 of those in the BC Legislature. Theyhave been awarded 60% of their 2009 results as a member of a party. Thiseffects Abbotsford South and Cariboo North. The Independent in Delta Southwon as an Independent in 2009. The new Independent in Boundary-Similkameen has currently stated that he will not seek another term.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra