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The Predictive Power of theYield Spread in Sub-Saharan and Northern AfricaMay 2008By Oluwasegun Popoola
 
 
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Table of Contents
Abstract
…………….………………………………………………………….……
3Section 1 Intro
duction……………………………………………………………...
41.1 Background to
the Study…………………………...
41.2
Objectives of the Study..…………………………...
61.3 Structure of the Study...
…………………….……...
6Section
2 Literature Review and Theoretical Framework…………. ……………..
72.1 Related Literature
………………………..…………
72.2
Theoretical Framework..…………………………...
.9Section 3 Research Methodology, Empirical Analysis and Resu
lts……………..
.113.1
Data Description and Source(s)…………..…
.
……
.103.2 Predictive Power of the Yield Spread......................293.3
Forecasting Model Selection……...
.........................44Section 4 Summary of Research Findings, Recommendations and Conclusion
…
454.1 Summary of Research Findings
……………………
454.2 Conclusion
..……………………………………….
.45
References…………………………………………………………………….….
.48
 
 
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Abstract
The predictive power of the yield spread has been widely studied and documented in the United Statesand a number of countries outside the United States. However, little or no studies have been conducted inAfrica.This paper studies the predictive power of the yield spread and ascertains its usefulness for predicting realeconomic growth in Africa. It buttresses the predictive ability of the yield spread particularly in SouthAfrica where the results suggest that the yield spread as a predictive indicator of future economicactivities performs better at longer horizons.The paper further identifies the appropriate model for forecasting the yield spread in Morocco, Nigeriaand South Africa.
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