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Peak Oil Study - Security Policy Implications of Scarce Resources.pdf

Peak Oil Study - Security Policy Implications of Scarce Resources.pdf

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Published by: Paulo Felix on Feb 09, 2013
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 Bundeswehr Transformation CentreFuture Analysis BranchPrötzeler Chaussee 2515344 StrausbergNovember 2010 www.zentrum-transformation.bundeswehr.deztransfbwdezzukunftsanalyse@bundeswehr.org
Armed Forces, Capabilities and Technologies in the 21
CenturyEnvironmental Dimensions of SecuritySub-study 1
Security policy implicationsof scarce resources
© Bundeswehr Transformation Centre, Future Analysis Branch
 All rights reserved. Contents may only be reproduced or published with express permission from the BundeswehrTransformation Centre, Future Analysis Branch
The Bundeswehr Transformation Centre analyses changes that occur within and outside theBundeswehr and provides incentives for concept development, armed forces planning andthe Bundeswehr’s capability profile. It thus assists the Federal Ministry of Defence incentrally managing the transformation process.In this context, the purpose of security-related future analysis is to acquire knowledgeprecociously and scientifically based in order to refine conceptual specifications andobjectives without making predictions. Being open-ended and not bound by directives, itprovides ideas and approaches for aligning the Bundeswehr to face future tasks andtherefore is a central part in the process of formulating objectives. Purpose of the study results is to enable the Federal Ministry of Defence to identify long-term issues withrelevance to security policy at an early stage before forwarding them, if necessary, tointernal or external organisations for a more detailed analysis.To perform its tasks, one study from the ACT 21 series (Armed Forces, Capabilities andTechnologies in the 21st Century) and one Mid-term Study (MTS) will be alternately presented by the Future Analysis Branch every 5 years. ACT 21 studies address conceivablelong-term security policy challenges that are to be met within a 30-year time frame whereasMTS studies address challenges that are to be met within a 15-year time frame.The studies carried out by the Future Analysis Branch of the Bundeswehr are prepared within the area of responsibility of the Federal Ministry of Defence and are exclusively  based on open sources. In addition to military expertise, use is made above all of thescientific knowledge of civilian university and non-university research facilities and variousfederal ministries. The results, however, are not coordinated with other ministries andresearch facilities and are not intended to interfere with their responsibilities. Against this backdrop, the studies carried out by the Future Analysis Branch do not generally reflect any official views held by the Federal Ministry of Defence. Any specific conclusions, analysisrequirements and recommended actions that are of relevance to the armed forces, i.e.internal conclusions, are drawn up in parallel and are only published internally within theFederal Ministry of Defence.

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