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Table Of Contents

Why is forecasting important?
What is forecasting all about?
Key issues in forecasting
Example: Mercedes E-class vs. M-class Sales
What should we consider when looking at past demand data?
Some Important Questions
Types of forecasting methods
Qualitative forecasting methods
Quantitative forecasting methods
How should we pick our forecasting model?
Time Series: Moving average
Time series: simple moving average
Example: forecasting sales at Kroger
Stability versus responsiveness in moving averages
Time series: weighted moving average
Why do we need the WMA models?
Example: Kroger sales of bottled water
What if we use a weighted moving average?
How do we choose weights?
Time Series: Exponential Smoothing (ES)
Why use exponential smoothing?
Exponential smoothing: the method
Impact of the smoothing constant
Impact of trend
Exponential smoothing with trend
Example: bottled water at Kroger
Linear regression in forecasting
The best line is the one that minimizes the error
Min i
What does that mean?
How can we compare across forecasting models?
Measuring Accuracy: MFE
Measuring Accuracy: MAD
Low MFE & MAD:
Low MFE but high MAD:
High MFE & MAD:
Forecast must be measured for accuracy!
Measuring Accuracy: Tracking signal
RSFE
Bottled water at Kroger: compare MAD and TS
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Forecasting (1)

Forecasting (1)

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Published by Ovee Shah

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Published by: Ovee Shah on Feb 12, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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12/21/2013

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