St. Bernard Parish Louisiana Land Trust Strategies-Czb Suggestions

Report
to St Bernard Parish Government - Disposi6on Strategy for LLT Lots Prepared by czb in collabora6on with MIG/W, and Don Poland Consul6ng
czb
Foreword
czb is a Virginia-based planning rm specializing in revitaliza6on strategy development and implementa6on. We have been retained by Winston Associates to be a member of the consultant team working to develop a Comprehensive Plan for St Bernard Parish, a project now underway (November, 2012). The process for developing the Comprehensive Plan ocially began in September, 2012. At that 6me it came to our teams aVen6on that a large amount of vacant land was held in trust by the State of Louisiana and would soon be returned to the Parish. This is land that the State obtained using federal funds as part of the process of facilita6ng the disposi6on of property destroyed by Hurricane Katrina. We determined that the volume, exis6ng en6tlements, and loca6on of the many parcels held by the State present a signicant challenge to the Comprehensive Planning process. If the lots were all returned to the Parish at once as scheduled in the fall of 2012, carrying costs for the lots would be an unaordable burden for the Parish. If even a third of the lots were then sold to bidders at auc6on at one 6me, already weak and unstable housing prices would fall. If they were returned to the Parish piecemeal and without a guiding strategy aimed at price stability and long term Parish health, the market would have an unfavorable reac6on. czb, Winston Associates (now MIG/W), and Don Poland Consul6ng (DPC) - the Comprehensive Plan team - collabora6vely determined that the best course of ac6on would be for the Parish to request that the State hold o on returning the land it held in trust (LLT lots) for a 90 day period during which czb could evaluate market condi6ons and dra] a vacant property disposi6on strategy. As of October 1, 2012 there were 1,402 vacant parcels of land in St Bernard Parish held by the Louisiana Land Trust encompassing roughly (about 10% of parcel dimensions may not be accurately recorded) 194 acres. Prior to Katrina, homes, businesses, apartments buildings and small parks were on these parcels instead. Following Katrina, the focus shi]ed from storm recovery to Parish reseVlement. The dicult work of both recovery and reseVlement had much in common, most notably that for a variety of reasons, the market was returning very slowly. For example, 66% of the parcels cons6tu6ng 57% of the acreage of the land held today by the Louisiana Land Trust is in Flood Zone A; the market has been very weary of reseVling on lands that have a high probability of future ooding. What else may account for the slow pace of reseVlement? The main reason is obvious: St Bernard Parish sustained heavier damages and loss than any other Parish, and so recovery and reseVlement naturally is more involved and 6me-consuming. Other cri6cal reasons for slow recovery and reseVlement were - and s6ll are - external. Just as recovery was hikng its stride, the na6onal housing market collapsed and it with, access to credit markets, making borrowing that much more dicult. Along with a shrinking na6onal economy from March 2008 un6l August 2010, the labor market 6ghtened severely, making jobs scarcer. In April 2010, BPs Deepwater Horizon exploded, with serious implica6ons for the stability of a then (and s6ll today) very fragile St Bernard economy. Of course, these external factors also impacted adjoining Parishes with similar severity.
Report to St Bernard Parish Government - Disposi6on Strategy for LLT Lots Page 2 | 21
Despite the truly heroic eorts of people like Doris Voi6er, Jerry Graves, Polly Campbell, Earl Dauterive, as well so many others who have exercised extraordinary leadership in gekng the Parish back on its feet, the St Bernard market has languished, and con6nues to struggle far more than its neighbors. At the heart of the dilemma of persistent market weakness in St Bernard is the nagging issue of surplus. Surplus single family homes. Surplus commercial space. Surplus land. Surplus apartment units. When there is an excess of anything, its value is, at best, unstable, and more typically, falling. It is in this context - persistent market weakness vis a vis excess supply - that we have developed the aVached recommenda6ons for how to treat the 1,402 LLT lots soon to be returned to the Parish by the State of Louisiana.
Summary
By the end of CY 2012 the Louisiana Land Trust will return to St Bernard Parish 1,402 parcels of vacant land. Each parcel has costs and poten6al benets associated with it. These range from mowing expenses to opportunity costs on one hand, and market stability and ood mi6ga6on on the other. While there may be an understandably strong inclina6on to sell any lot on which bids are received, the benets will be short-term, and the impacts long-term. We urge the Parish to consider carefully the cost-eec6ve strategy outlined here for the overall long-term benet to the community. Context - The housing market in St Bernard Parish has for a long 6me been the weakest in the region by a wide - and increasing - margin. - The Parishs weak market condi6on is exemplied by excess supply (of land as well as housing units). - Important underlying governing variables are the root cause of Parish market weakness and they have long gone unaddressed. Underlying Problems - The Parish originally and then a]er Katrina reseVled in ood prone areas. - Home building in the Parish before and since Katrina has been done in ood prone ways. - Dominant architectural styles of home building in the Parish before and since Katrina are hard to market across a region wan6ng dierent styles and treatments. - SeVlement paVerns in the Parish undermine marketability. Guiding Principles - The disposi6on of the 1,402 LLT lots should be governed by what is best for the long term health of the Parish housing and retail market. - Considera6on should be given to nding a balance between short term costs of maintenance and long term benets of stability. - Every eort should be made to avoid con6nuing or perpetua6ng the underlying problems noted above.
Strategy
czb has evaluated the housing market and related neighborhood condi6ons in St Bernard Parish during the period September 15 - November 15, 2012. Current asking prices have been taken into considera6on, for undeveloped land, for housing, for apartments, and for other real estate. czb analyzed ten years of sales records that included evalua6ng every residen6al real estate transac6on in the region that includes St Bernard, St Tammany, Jeerson, Orleans, and Plaquemines parishes from 2001-2011. Regression analyses helped isolate drivers of demand. Z scoring enabled a determina6on to be made about compara6ve market strength both within St Barnard and between St Bernard and other jurisdic6ons. Many possible conclusions can be made from these analyses. As regards the remaining LLTs lots and the important and 6me-sensi6ve ques6on of their disposi6on, the following are key: 1. The housing market in St Bernard Parish has for a long 6me been the weakest in the region by a wide - and increasing - margin. Long before Katrina St Bernard was a challenged housing market, which is per6nent to the task of responsibly disposing of remaining LLT lots. Detailed analy6cs suppor6ng this are available under separate cover. 2. For related and addi6onal reasons, the above-noted so] market condi6on remains the case now. It is in this context - a profound weak market condi6on exemplied by excess supply (of land as well as housing units) - that this disposi6on strategy is presented. In a stronger market, with a stronger market history, the Parish could rely on exis6ng or pent up demand both to bid for and acquire and develop remaining LLT lots, and to do so in ways that would result in a stronger market. This laVer point is the single most important takeaway from our analysis. 3. Weak markets are weak not only for their current so] demand in their region, but historically so] levels. Historically so] values are a result of underlying governing variables that have gone unaddressed. These variables must be taken into considera6on when aVemp6ng to deal with a surplus, otherwise the addi6on of even more excess will only exacerbate current weakness. In the case of St Bernard Parish, there are principally four variables that historically account for market weakness, and each is magnied in the context of Parish loca6on, Katrina, post Katrina misteps, and the principle result of prolonged weakness: falling prices, turnover, and changing tenure. a. Residen6al seVlement in ood-prone areas b. Flood prone construc6on paVerns c. Hard to market architectural styles of homes d. Organiza6onal paVern of seVlement 4. The addi6on of 1,402 LLTs to the current Parish inventory is both an opportunity (to address the above variables) and a risk (in failing to address them).
The underlying principles that govern this LLT lot disposi6on strategy are: 1. Reduce the supply of developable land a. This increases price stability for the land that is developable through constraint. b. It contributes to building a oor in the Parish housing market, which remains so], enabling the market to func6on. 2. Especially reduce the inventory of land in ood prone areas a. This decreases the cost of ood insurance b. It results in an increase in the dollars/household available for actual housing c. It also reduces the Parish's long term water management costs d. It creates opportuni6es for increased land stewardship by private owners, but to publicly-stated standards i. Reduces Parish carrying costs through transfer ii. Reduces Parish carrying costs through revegeta6on 3. Modify exis>ng development controls to reduce the inventory of less marketable homes a. This manages development and construc6on to a higher standard, resul6ng in more compe66ve real estate market. Overall, the strategy for LLT disposi6on aims for price stability, resident stewardship of undeveloped parcels through ground leases, reduced Parish expense, and enhanced levels of owner occupancy. It is important to be aware that well maintained vacant lots on the private market are frequently available for as liVle as $5,000, and are slow to sell, illustra6ng just how challenging it will be for the Parish to manage an addi6onal 1,402 LLTs lots.
There are 1,402 LLT lots in St Bernard Parish as of 10-1-12. czb recommends a FOUR STAGE disposi6on process. Stage 1: Future Value czb has evaluated the lots and determined that there are three elements that dene poten6al future value. - First is market value; that is, the value of the lot on the market today and, based on historic demand for that part of the Parish, probable future value. - Second is environmental value; that is, the value of the lot in terms of addressing the Parish's most signicant long term issue: water. - Third is the combina6on of the two (market and environment) and how they interrelate in terms of supply and demand, resul6ng land scarcity and price, and subsequent capacity of the Parish to compete in the region. It is this third element that czb recommends the Parish focus on. Stage 2: Future Use Two historic (and strongly connected) challenges have undermined the Parish over 6me: so] property values owing to compara6vely weak demand, and the combina6on of construc6on quality and development (seVlement) paVerns, which in turn have undermined pricing stability. It is important to break out the 1,402 LLT lots and understand where they are and how they are zoned. czb recommend the Parish view the return of the LLTs lots as an opportunity s6mulate demand. Stage 3: Execu>on The parcels will be transferred back to the Parish by the end of CY 2012. The Parish then owns them. It can hold them. It can develop them. It can sell them. 25% of eventual future value must accrue to low income families. There is a nite number of paths the Parish can take: - Hold all for the net benets that would be an6cipated to result - Sell all for the net benets that would be an6cipated to result - Sell all at once (immediately, or at a later date) - Sell in stages (immediately and staging therea]er, or at a later date and staging therea]er) - Hold some and sell some, and strive for a balanced result of costs and benets that fundamentally generate long term community benet. czb recommends that the Parish hold most of the 1,402 LLTs as detailed in this document, selling some, and in both retaining and selling, strike a balance that serves long term stability interests. Stage 4: Interim There is going to be some period of 6me when the Parish will be holding at least some LLT lots that have carrying costs. czb recommends that the Parish not sell LLT lots as a means of reducing carrying costs; doing so would perpetuate the reasons that St Bernard is and has been a weak market.
Stage 1 is the organiza>on of the lots into categories that allow the Parish to sort them into poten>al future value. Step 1 is to divide the 1,402 LLT lots into their various uses. Step 2 is to remove those in Flood Zone A as not appropriate for development at the present 6me. This reduces the number of LLT lots from 1,402. The greater benet is in not developing these lots now. First, insurance scoring for the Parish increases as fewer proper6es are at risk, reducing premiums over 6me for everyone. Second, the size of the parcels in Flood Zone A is substan6al (4.9M SqFt). Undeveloped (unpaved and unroofed), this represents a signicantly reduced ood water management load to be imposed on the Parish's systems, and a major opportunity to manage water alterna6vely. Proper6es in the ood zone should be available to owner occupants of adjoining parcels to obtain under a 99 year ground lease, at $1/year provided they are maintained to a high standard. Parcels not claimed
927 - Flood Zone A 46 - Multi Family zoned (housing) 1,402 15 - Commercial/Industrial 2 - Parks (recreation) 3 - Woodland 409 - Single Family zoned (housing)
under this approach will with specic na6ve plan6ngs and water management designs to reduce carrying costs to the Parish. Step 3 is to subdivide the 409 single family zoned parcels into those that are on blocks that have redeveloped since Katrina with some measure of strength, and those that have not. czb determined that 170 of the 409 single family parcels are on blocks that have reseVled sparsely and are too weak from a market perspec6ve to aVract quality bids at the present 6me. This leaves 239 parcels (of the current 1,402) suitable for sale/auc6on this year to promote near-future redevelopment as single family homes as these are on blocks that are fundamentally reseVled and stable.
Addi6onally: - NOT MAKING AVAILABLE the 46 mul6 family lots unless they are rezoned for mixed-income, given that they are mainly located on already quite weakened ChalmeVe, Meraux, and Violet blocks that will destabilize further if mul6 family is developed in ways that further concentrate poverty. Final recommenda6ons for these will come from the nished Comprehensive Plan. - NOT MAKING AVAILABLE the ve woodland and parks/recrea6on lots; these as green/open/park space will add value to the lots that are in play. Final recommenda6ons for these will come from the nished Comprehensive Plan. - NOT MAKING AVAILABLE the 15 commercial/industrial parcels unless they are rezoned for mixed use, given that such a designa6on will add to future development exibility. Final recommenda6ons for these will come from the nished Comprehensive Plan. - The 26 lots (of the 239 on stable blocks) that abut canals/waterways represent special future opportunity. These lots should be analyzed further and a nal recommenda6on for their disposi6on should be determined as part of the on-going comprehensive planning process. This means there are 213 LLT lots that, subject to the condi6ons outlined in Stage 2, could be auc6oned to a good outcome.
213 239 1,402

LLT Total On stable blocks
SF Homes NOT along canals/waterways
409
SF Homes
26 170
On unstable blocks
SF Homes along canals/waterways
Stage 2 is the condi>oned future use of all remaining LLT lots. Two historic (and strongly connected) challenges have undermined the Parish over 6me: so] property values owing to consistently sub-comparable demand, and the combina6on of construc6on aesthe6cs and development (seVlement) paVerns. It is important that the 213 LLT lots on stable blocks that ought to be auc6oned for future redevelopment as single family homes, and the 46 LLT lots that are now designated as mul6 family, should be subject to condi6ons as follows: Single Family (213 not including the water/canal front lots) - New homes must be built to higher (stronger, safer, and less vulnerable to damages from future ooding) NFIP standards. Mul6 Family (4+42=46) (4 in Arabi should be rezoned as SF) (42 elsewhere should be developable as mixed income MF) - New mul6 family developments must be developed both to higher NFIP standards and be developed as mixed-income proper6es, with no more than 75% of the units dedicated for use by HHs with incomes > 80% AMI. The Area Median Income in 2012 is $39,200, enough to purchase a home up to $117,600. The highest average sale price of a single family home in any part of St Bernard Parish is less than $105,807 (2012), or 89% AMI. Final details for these lots should emerge with the Comprehensive Plan. Commercial/Industrial (15) - New commercial development on LLT lots may be developed, but the zoning for these lots must be modied for mixed-use poten6al to include housing. Final details for these lots should emerge with the Comprehensive Plan. Stage 3 is the actual disposi>on eort. The Parish should aim to 1. Reduce the supply of developable land as a mechanism for injec6ng scarcity into the market, thereby helping to create a oor in the housing market price wise. 2. Reduce the inventory of land in especially high ood prone areas, thereby reducing ood probability, and decreasing insurance premiums, which in turn increases the percentage of "housing dollars" going into housing itself. 3. Improve development restric6ons governing construc6on, thereby increasing base value of housing, further contribu6ng to stabiliza6on and future value. 4. Require all buyers of SF-zoned lots to develop SF housing and for all buyers of these homes occupy them as an owner-occupant within two years.
Applying these principles to the 1,402 LLT sites creates phased release. czb recommends the following 6ming: January 2013 - First auc6on should occur of the following proper6es:
Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette 2413 BLANCHARD DR 2801 BLANCHARD DR 2401 CAMPAGNA DR 14 CARROLL DR 14 CARROLL DR 28 CARROLL DR 28 CARROLL DR 2804 CHARLES DR 2821 CHARLES DR 2909 CHARLES DR 3004 CHARLES DR 3016 CHARLES DR 2007 CONGRESSMAN HEBERT DR 2021 CONGRESSMAN HEBERT DR 2021 CONGRESSMAN HEBERT DR 2209 CULOTTA ST 3312 DAUTERIVE DR 9 E CHALMETTE CIR 58 E CHALMETTE CIR 48 E CLAIBORNE SQ 77 E CLAIBORNE SQ 300 E ST JEAN BAPTISTE ST 800 ELLEN DR 2808 JACKSON BLVD 36 KEANE DR 2205 LENA DR 8512 LIVINGSTON AVE 26490 17279 15662 10384 10952 6821 17664 17119 10972 14444 8852 22968 20970 23782 26064 2574 3789 8356 2388 12476 24336 24375 21386 23073 24702 14273 6921 Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette 8601 LIVINGSTON AVE 8637 LIVINGSTON AVE 8713 LIVINGSTON AVE 8904 LIVINGSTON AVE 2709 LLOYDS AVE 2721 LLOYDS AVE 2209 LYNDEL DR 2404 LYNDEL DR 63 MADISON AVE 707 MARAIS ST 2409 MARIETTA ST 2421 MARIETTA ST 2914 MARIETTA ST 2005 MUMPHREY RD 19 OLD HICKORY AVE 24 OLD HICKORY AVE 6 PACKENHAM AVE 6 PACKENHAM AVE 21 PACKENHAM AVE 53 PACKENHAM AVE 3213 PAKENHAM DR 3225 PAKENHAM DR 2720 PALMETTO ST 2816 PALMETTO ST 3020 PALMETTO ST 3100 PALMETTO ST 3124 PALMETTO ST 14160 14901 13855 10360 19425 17760 28817 23719 29539 11876 23603 29142 17012 15208 18527 5952 27464 18486 20174 22233 28811 10734 9175 3410 23000 28191 10506 Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette 2144 PIRATE DR 2349 PLAZA DR 2400 PLAZA DR 2408 PLAZA DR 2712 PLAZA DR 3216 PLAZA DR 3312 PLAZA DR 3216 RIVERLAND DR 3509 RIVERLAND DR 2621 ROSETTA DR 3609 ROSETTA DR 2301 TRIO ST 2224 VERONICA DR 3233 VERONICA DR 3300 VERONICA DR 3320 VERONICA DR 2101 VOLPE DR 51 W CHALMETTE CIR 69 W CHALMETTE CIR 77 W CHALMETTE CIR 548 W SOLIDELLE ST 22257 17139 26613 29333 22410 18681 10725 15911 15971 2581 6434 27254 18831 23914 8729 3694 9614 28663 30056 6648 16480
When approximately 75% (57) of these high priority LLT lots are sold to quality buyers mee6ng Parish guidelines, a second auc6on can begin.
A second auc6on would include the unsold 18 proper6es from the rst auc6on, plus this next set of high priority LLT lots:
Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux 2913 BRADBURY DR 3009 BRADBURY DR 4105 CLAIBORNE AVE 2512 FRANCIS AVE 2409 LAWRENCE LN 2505 LAWRENCE LN 2401 LEGEND DR 2045 LIVACCARI DR 2401 LIVACCARI DR 2413 LIVACCARI DR 2200 MAUREEN LN 2201 MAUREEN LN 2221 MAUREEN LN 2324 MAUREEN LN 2412 MAUREEN LN 2413 MAUREEN LN 2901 MERAUX LN 3112 MERAUX LN 3204 MERAUX LN 3400 MERAUX LN 3409 MERAUX LN 7501 MERCURY DR 2309 MUNSTER BLVD 2312 MUNSTER BLVD 2320 MUNSTER BLVD 2405 MUNSTER BLVD 4001 NAJOLIA DR 14059 16438 22860 5236 9722 7422 6610 18979 12902 5539 11680 9723 21329 24696 10437 7285 18175 29064 8026 10526 3265 14190 15510 8170 13747 20247 5598 Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Poydras Poydras Poydras Poydras Poydras Poydras Poydras 4105 NAJOLIA DR 4117 NAJOLIA DR 2500 NANCY DR 2712 NUNEZ DR 2720 NUNEZ DR 2804 NUNEZ DR 2812 NUNEZ DR 2900 NUNEZ DR 2101 PAUL DR 2301 PAUL DR 2309 PAUL DR 2009 VENUS PL 2201 VENUS PL 2141 WALKERS LN 2237 WALKERS LN 2304 WALKERS LN 2317 WALKERS LN 2325 WALKERS LN 2325 WALKERS LN 2429 WALKERS LN 351 BAYOU RD 351 BAYOU RD 351 BAYOU RD 2204 E CHRISTIE DR 2001 EGRET DR 2008 EGRET DR 2004 FLAMINGO DR 11677 5517 9048 27967 29143 27386 12584 26696 10409 10650 14630 3308 20178 5669 15406 4755 9053 19190 17820 27067 14687 14607 4253 26375 13983 17993 23668 Poydras Poydras Poydras Poydras Poydras Poydras Poydras Poydras Poydras Poydras Poydras Poydras Poydras Poydras 2320 FLAMINGO DR 2505 FLAMINGO DR 2413 KINGBIRD BLVD 1813 KINGFISHER DR 2104 REDBIRD DR 2112 REDBIRD DR 1825 ROBERT DR 1808 SUZI DR 1820 SUZI DR 2116 TORRES DR 2100 W CHRISTIE DR 2112 W CHRISTIE DR 2201 W CHRISTIE DR 2405 WARBLER DR 5368 17210 7955 3952 28179 27548 19012 15170 5254 29903 10873 20245 8934 8128
When approximately 75% (51) of these second round high priority LLT lots are sold, along with 75% of the outstanding proper6es from the rst auc6on (13), a third round can begin.
The third round would include unsold round 1 proper6es (5 le] of the original 18), unsold round 2 proper6es (17), and the following:
Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet 6409 1ST ST 6417 1ST ST 5621 3RD ST 5633 3RD ST 6312 4TH ST 5725 6TH ST 5905 6TH ST 2100 A ST 2817 ANGELIQUE DR 2908 ASHLEY DR 4 BORGNEMOUTH CT 2100 COLONIAL BLVD 2109 COLONIAL BLVD 2500 COLONIAL BLVD 2424 CORA ANN ST 2401 EDGAR DR 2417 EDGAR DR 2404 ELIZABETH CT 2512 ELIZABETH CT 2213 GENERAL PERSHING ST 2317 GENERAL PERSHING ST 2020 GUERRA DR 2100 GUERRA DR 2108 GUERRA DR 2400 GUERRA DR 2713 GUERRA DR 2728 GUERRA DR 14364 21427 14838 3914 4845 30139 4489 24781 12002 22411 19340 11771 17341 26275 28599 2387 13856 16275 19381 17754 20146 17135 25525 23737 21457 2976 24932 Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet 2729 GUERRA DR 2813 GUERRA DR 3108 GUERRA DR 5 JAMIE'S CT 2213 KENNETH DR 2425 LICCIARDI LN 6428 LOUIS ELAM ST 6501 LOUIS ELAM ST 6515 LOUIS ELAM ST 2417 REPOSE ST 2501 REPOSE ST 2217 REUNION DR 2508 REUNION DR 2216 RIVERBEND DR 2300 RIVERBEND DR 2313 RIVERBEND DR 2801 RIVERBEND DR 2020 S RIVER PARK DR 2417 ST MATTHEWS CIR 5605 ST MATTHEWS CIR 2708 TARA DR 2808 TARA DR 18 VICTORIAN CT 8812 21445 8624 20466 24002 26039 3584 21575 11672 25742 29074 20457 18310 2923 2317 11665 26828 14035 21095 2133 18178 13618 9230 Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi 2824 BAYOU RD 2824 BAYOU RD 3427 BAYOU RD 1628 HEIGHTS DR 1636 HEIGHTS DR 1637 HEIGHTS DR 1641 HEIGHTS DR 1643 HEIGHTS DR 1800 HEIGHTS DR 1808 HEIGHTS DR 1820 HEIGHTS DR 1924 LINDA LOU DR 1940 SUGAR MILL DR 1956 SUGAR MILL DR 1511 ALEXANDER AVE 7208 ANNE ST 7216 ANNE ST 100 PERRIN DR 7224 PROSPERITY ST 7228 PROSPERITY ST 15654 26160 10307 23917 15336 14528 5645 17377 22712 12910 9771 27442 2773 25425 9754 8692 21340 21798 25339 19172
These three rounds would seek to sell by auc6on 213 of the highest value LLT lots of the 1,402 being returned to the Parish by the State by the end of CY 2012. It is possible that the rst three rounds could be completed within six months.
Following sale of 90% of the rst 213 high value LLT lots (192 lots have sold), a fourth auc6on should occur consis6ng of the following 78 proper6es:
Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi 1601 ALEXANDER AVE 7221 ANNE ST 7227 ANNE ST 1600 CENTER ST 7206 EASY ST 7210 EASY ST 7219 EASY ST 624 ERMINE DR 1904 ESTEBAN ST 1912 ESTEBAN ST 1924 ESTEBAN ST 2000 ESTEBAN ST 2008 ESTEBAN ST 7234 HATTIE ST 1721 MEHLE AVE 1916 MEHLE AVE 1928 MEHLE AVE 1929 MEHLE AVE 2005 MEHLE AVE 2105 MEHLE AVE 2126 MEHLE AVE 2134 MEHLE AVE 2210 MEHLE AVE 204 NORTON AVE 7219 PATRICIA ST 7224 PATRICIA ST 17395 29480 4257 29868 7665 10074 6114 27010 4536 2668 11050 27425 16893 27641 15356 22122 24902 2377 17597 2856 18354 18572 15358 13203 15942 21404 Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet 7227 PATRICIA ST 101 PERRIN DR 1805 ROSE ST 1809 ROSE ST 1815 ROSE ST 7221 SUCCESS ST 2709 BLOMQUIST DR 2801 BLOMQUIST DR 2809 BLOMQUIST DR 2817 BLOMQUIST DR 2512 LAWRENCE LN 2064 LIVACCARI DR 2208 LIVACCARI DR 2508 LIVACCARI DR 2500 PAUL DR 2521 PAUL DR 2045 VALMAR DR 5721 3RD ST 5704 4TH ST 5741 4TH ST 2109 EDGAR DR 2221 EDGAR DR 2204 GENERAL PERSHING ST 3113 GUERRA DR 2112 KENNETH DR 2120 KENNETH DR 10630 27649 9823 17305 5265 3376 12852 21390 18474 27698 26000 13371 21602 13769 6028 28129 26765 10664 21243 28838 8169 24784 4083 29563 9402 12001 Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette 2200 KENNETH DR 2208 KENNETH DR 2216 KENNETH DR 2305 KENNETH DR 2304 REPOSE ST 2400 REPOSE ST 2408 REPOSE ST 2416 REPOSE ST 3012 BLANCHARD DR 3212 BLANCHARD DR 2813 CAMPAGNA DR 3309 CAMPAGNA DR 68 COCHRANE DR 77 COCHRANE DR 2420 CULOTTA ST 2704 DAUTERIVE DR 2816 DAUTERIVE DR 2905 DAUTERIVE DR 2916 DAUTERIVE DR 3209 DAUTERIVE DR 3217 DAUTERIVE DR 3321 DAUTERIVE DR 3329 DAUTERIVE DR 2704 DECOMINE DR 2712 DECOMINE DR 2813 DECOMINE DR 9283 26990 9726 18499 10929 6999 21258 9609 12903 24232 12310 4508 29192 12382 21705 15544 20303 25997 17923 11165 13019 28288 8567 5229 7455 5140
When 90% of the fourth auc6on has sold (21 from the rst three and 71 from the fourth block for a total of 92 sales for Auc6on #4), the following should cons6tute the ]h and nal auc6on for 2013:
Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette 3016 DECOMINE DR 3216 DECOMINE DR 3308 DECOMINE DR 3405 DECOMINE DR 53 E CHALMETTE CIR 59 E CHALMETTE CIR 704 E JOSEPHINE ST 709 ELLEN DR 3205 GALLO DR 61 JONES DR 66 JONES DR 70 JONES DR 65 LACOSTE DR 8525 LIVINGSTON AVE 2912 LYNDEL DR 3005 LYNDEL DR 3013 LYNDEL DR 3217 LYNDEL DR 3225 LYNDEL DR 3825 LYNDEL DR 3800 MARIETTA DR 3312 MARIETTA ST 3340 MARIETTA ST 605 N VILLERE ST 613 N VILLERE ST 2929 PALMETTO ST 19824 21148 10308 12260 17527 26819 14587 14570 28301 27477 23124 26445 5780 19899 12391 4228 2641 23381 6068 12133 27259 11038 25156 27849 9598 12418 Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette 3009 PALMETTO ST 3017 PALMETTO ST 3109 PALMETTO ST 62 PATTERSON DR 65 PATTERSON DR 69 PATTERSON DR 70 PATTERSON DR 74 PATTERSON DR 2413 PECAN DR 2505 PECAN DR 2705 PECAN DR 3509 PECAN DR 2921 PLAZA DR 3000 PLAZA DR 3009 PLAZA DR 3724 PLAZA DR 2816 RIVERLAND DR 2905 RIVERLAND DR 2913 RIVERLAND DR 3001 RIVERLAND DR 2612 ROSETTA DR 2908 ROSETTA DR 3321 ROSETTA DR 76 THORNTON DR 2612 VERONICA DR 2701 VERONICA DR 8422 11585 28447 8198 2281 2597 3950 24281 5667 21414 3637 24396 29044 14915 22605 18300 27072 15677 18059 27399 11424 15934 2781 28557 10794 20755 Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette 2921 VERONICA DR 3005 VERONICA DR 3408 VERONICA DR 2220 VOLPE DR 2308 VOLPE DR 2801 VOLPE DR 2921 VOLPE DR 3004 VOLPE DR 3005 VOLPE DR 3012 VOLPE DR 3209 VOLPE DR 3413 VOLPE DR 3421 VOLPE DR 612 W PROSPER ST 205 W ST AVIDE ST 13900 26345 18313 8324 7218 21321 20116 29756 2741 13997 27069 13200 25061 10990 22105
Auc6on Summary No 1 2 3 Total High Value LLTs Amount 75 68 70 213 Loca6on ChalmeVe Meraux, PoVers Violet, Arabi, and Elsewhere Type Single Family High Return Rate Single Family High Return Rate Single Family High Return Rate Possible Previous Auc6on Carryover 0 18 17
4 5 Total Lower Value LLTs
78 67 145
Arabi, Meraux, Violet, ChalmeVe ChalmeVe
Single Family Low Return Rate Single Family Low Return Rate
21 8
Within each proposed auc6on block are approximately 5-6 dozen proper6es that have been categorized by stability as dened by the percentage of families on a given block that have returned using Op6on 1 of the Road Home Program. Within each of these designated auc6on blocks, the Parish is strongly encouraged to break the block into sub blocks of proper6es that make collec6ve sense to auc6on as a group. It may be the case that the rear of one property abuts the rear of another and cons6tute an aggregate opportunity. Specic block level market knowledge we were unable to obtain in this short amount of 6me precluded us from be able to present op6ons at that level of granularity.
These ve auc6ons seek to ow into the market the highest value LLT lots in a controlled manner so as to preserve value and reseVle those blocks rst most likely to seVle in a stable manner. This would hopefully net the Parish considerable value from the sale of these 358 LLT lots. The remaining lots (mul6family, those in the Flood Zone, those along water, and commercial parcels) should not be auc6oned at this 6me. In the mean6me, the Comprehensive Planning process should proceed, iden6fying a disposi6on strategy for the LLT lots along waterways. When all 409 LLT lots have been developed and sold and occupied by owner occupants, Flood Zone LLT lots not assigned a ground lease and s6ll banked by the Parish may revert to sale on the open market provided ood mi6ga6on rules have been placed into service on those lots. These could be sequenced for auc6on star6ng with the most measurably high-demand lots in the inventory. It is very important that the St Bernard Parish government and community understand that each of the 1,402 lots represents an opportunity and a cost. Each is also more than a single opportunity and is, rather, a combina6on of many. - For example, each single lot represents on average more than 6,000 sq ] of land, and, as such, cons6tutes a profound opportunity to reduce ooding through a variety of landscaping techniques. Reduced ooding has a quan6able benet. And the benets get geometrically mul6plied as more lots in ood prone areas are returned to nature. Furthermore, land scarcity helps the remaining developable parcels grow in value. Of course there are tradeos. The costs of conver6ng a vacant lot into a water ltering and absorbing site are not inconsequen6al. Large undeveloped spaces in some parts of the Parish will feel as if that market is never coming back, and so those whove already seVled in such areas may become frustrated with the 6me it takes to achieve stability. - As another example, each single lot represents a chance for a buyer to build a home. But each such property also is a chance that the lot could go undeveloped, or a developed home could go unsold. Given that the LLT lot issue has to be addressed now, as opposed to later (a]er a comprehensive plan has been completed that would include land use and zoning elements and design guidelines), there is also a chance such a property could be bought and developed into another of a long list of unsightly proper6es that over the years have been a major contribu6ng element to the Parish's weak market. This should be avoided. - And third, each lot has a carrying cost and benet if it is retained - either by design or because there was not a buyer. These reten6on costs range from about $. 16/sq ] per year for mowing to a range of front and back end costs for managing revegeta6on and subsequent ood mi6ga6on. Of course, each of these considera6ons in turn have numerous mul6plier eects based on 6ming and loca6on. A vacant lot on a strong and recovering block in District C will have a dierent net cost/benet than the same size lot elsewhere. We have tried to take these factors into considera6on in recommending only 213 of the 1,402 LLT lots be made available for auc6on in the near term, and another 145 a]erwards.
Stage 4 Interim (While the auctions and development are taking place)
The strategy czb has developed ranks the single family zoned LLT lots on the stronger blocks in the stronger submarkets as the rst to auc6on, as previously noted. As these are bought and presumably developed, subsequent sales can and should be occur. As stated previously, we recommend the lots in the ood plain be retained for the foreseeable future by the Parish (the comprehensive plan may revise this recommenda6on). This is 927 parcels totaling 4.9M sq ]. This would cost the Parish approximately $784,000 to maintain as lots requiring mowing. We recommend that these lots be revegetated in a semi-controlled temporary manner un6l a more permanent landscaping design can be developed to address ltra6on and runo. By semi-controlled we mean the Parish should cut/mow only an approximately six foot perimeter of each parcel, resul6ng in a mowing cost of about 29% of current expense or $227,000 for the LLT lots in the ood area that we recommend not be auc6oned. The MF lots and the commercial lots be held un6l the comprehensive plan determines a best use, as weve previously stated. This would total roughly 262,414 sq ], of which 76,000 sq ] would require mowing at a cost of approximately $13,000 a year. We an6cipate the weaker single family lots will take some 6me to sell (Auc6on #5), and so we assume those lots will require maintenance. These plus the costs of maintaining the wooded/park LLTs, as well as the lots along canals may generate an annual maintenance expense of about $42,000. Altogether, maintaining the perimeter as an interim strategy in the manner prescribed here reduces the costs from about $800,000 per year to about $230,000, and this approach strengthens the prospects for actual development to occur.
Revegetated Area Proposed Mow Area
Conventional Mow Area
Disposition Category for Available LLT Lots (as of Oct. 2012)

Flood Zone A Commercial Park
Arabi Chalmette
Woodland Multifamily Single-family (High-Impact Blocks) Single-family (Lower-Impact Blocks) Flood Zone A
Meraux
Flood Zone A

Flood Zone A Commercial Park Woodland Multifamily Single-family (High-Impact Blocks) Single-family (Lower-Impact Blocks) Near Water, Outside Flood Zone A
czbLLC
Arabi
Violet
czbLLC
Poydras
Overall Disposi6on Map
Arabi LLTs
Flood Zone A

Flood Zone A Commercial Park Woodland Multifamily Single-family (High-Impact Blocks) Single-family (Lower-Impact Blocks)
Meraux
czbLLC
Flood Zone A
Chalmette

czbLLC
Meraux LLTs
ChalmeVe LLTs
Flood Zone A Disposition Category for Available LLT Lots (as of Oct. 2012)
Flood Zone A

Violet
Poydras
czbLLC
czbLLC
Violet LLTs
Poydras LLTs
Place Name Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Outside Census Place Arabi Arabi Arabi Arabi Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Chalmette Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Meraux Poydras Poydras Violet Violet Violet Violet Violet All All All All All All All
Category Flood Zone A Multifamily Single-family A Woodland Flood Zone A Multifamily Single-family A Single-family B Commercial Flood Zone A Multifamily Single-family A Single-family B Commercial Flood Zone A Multifamily Park Single-family A Single-family B Flood Zone A Single-family A Commercial Flood Zone A Multifamily Single-family A Single-family B Commercial Flood Zone A Multifamily Park/Woodland Single-family A Single-family B Combined
Total Lot # Lot Size # No Data # of Lots Available Available % Known Size (of Known) 31 5 15 3 266 4 7 33 6 473 19 85 105 1 126 10 2 49 14 1 24 8 30 8 59 18 15 927 46 5 239 170 1402 16 5 13 0 239 4 6 32 5 431 14 75 103 1 121 8 2 43 12 1 20 6 30 8 55 18 12 838 39 2 212 165 1268 15 0 2 3 27 0 1 1 1 42 5 10 2 0 5 2 0 6 2 0 4 2 0 0 4 0 3 89 7 3 27 5 134 52% 100% 87% 0% 90% 100% 86% 97% 83% 91% 74% 88% 98% 100% 96% 80% 100% 88% 86% 100% 83% 75% 100% 100% 93% 100% 80% 90% 85% 40% 89% 97% 90% 263,162 25,228 1,260,837 1,434,364 18,950 35,200 179,402 33,375 2,373,783 72,123 409,623 557,261 5,500 656,194 40,328 10,000 220,383 69,240 5,000 121,803 30,810 174,953 36,100 343,301 91,458 69,685 4,907,457 192,729 10,000 2,391,146 897,361 8,468,378
Average Sale Price $55,651 $75,842 $93,004 $105,807 $69,952 $65,003 $83,554 $43,321 $207,500 $74,529 $83,717 $80,264 $125,827 $59,074 $125,499 $53,701 $75,479 $39,351 $84,675 $39,351 $207,500 Average Sale Price per SF $32.94 $57.91 $60.10 $62.09 $50.56 $48.60 $54.94 $29.43 $54.88 $53.24 $46.83 $38.33 $23.70 $23.70 $64.25 $58.41 $66.00 $69.57 $57.71 $65.50 $69.57 # of Available LLT Lots 15 7 85 49 24 59 239
Place Name
Retention Category
Average Minimum Maximum Average Minimum Maximum
Outside Census Place Single-family A Arabi Single-family A Chalmette Single-family A Meraux Poydras Violet All Single-family A Single-family A Single-family A Single-family A
Flood%Zone%A Commercial Single%Family Multi%Family Park/Woodland
927 15 818 92 10
838 12 754 78 4
89 3 64 14 6
4,907,457 69,685 3,288,508 192,729 10,000 8,468,379
57.95% 2.12% 38.83% 2.28% 0.12%

St. Bernard Parish Louisiana Land Trust Strategies-Czb Suggestions

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St. Bernard Parish Louisiana Land Trust Strategies-Czb Suggestions

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213 239 1,402

SF Homes NOT along canals/waterways

SF Homes along canals/waterways

4 5 Total Lower Value LLTs

Arabi, Meraux, Violet, ChalmeVe ChalmeVe

Revegetated Area Proposed Mow Area

Conventional Mow Area

Disposition Category for Available LLT Lots (as of Oct. 2012)

Disposition Category for Available LLT Lots (as of Oct. 2012)

Overall Disposi6on Map

Disposition Category for Available LLT Lots (as of Oct. 2012)

Disposition Category for Available LLT Lots (as of Oct. 2012)

Disposition Category for Available LLT Lots (as of Oct. 2012)

Average Minimum Maximum Average Minimum Maximum

Flood%Zone%A Commercial Single%Family Multi%Family Park/Woodland

4,907,457 69,685 3,288,508 192,729 10,000 8,468,379

57.95% 2.12% 38.83% 2.28% 0.12%

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