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Week 3 Mapping Risk and Vulnerability Sao Paulo

Week 3 Mapping Risk and Vulnerability Sao Paulo

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Week 3 Mapping Risk and Vulnerability Sao Paulo
Week 3 Mapping Risk and Vulnerability Sao Paulo

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Published by: Daisy on Feb 14, 2013
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Mapping Risk and Vulnerability in S ˜ ao PauloMetropolitan Region
Andrea Ferraz Young and Carlos Afonso NobreAbstract
Current climate change projections indicate that heavy rainfall is anincreasing problem in many areas around the world, including the S˜ao PauloMetropolitan Region, Brazil. This will result in severe flooding and landslidesin the upcoming years. Therefore, the geography of climate change vulnerabilityis vital to adaptation planning. Using Geographic Information System (GIS) andmapping tools such as digital elevation models (DEM), this chapter identifies themain areas affected by floods and landslides. We characterize such areas by theirbiophysical dimensions and socio-economic status. In turn, we not only focus onthe physicalenvironmentbut examinethe geographyof socio-politicaldeterminantsof vulnerability. Overall, this chapter will highlight which areas are vulnerable toclimate change and what we can expect in 2030.
Keywords
Climate change Urbanization Megacities Risk assessment• Vulnerability • Disasters
1 Introduction
Projections indicate that if the S˜ao Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR) continuesto expand at its current rate, there will be an approximate increase of 38% of theurban area by 2030. Effects of this include increased flooding and landslide risks,affecting a larger proportion of the population and in particular the poorest.
A.F. Young (
)CEPAGRI, State University of Campinas, Saulo de Carvalho Luz, 111 apto 84B,13033-195 Campinas, Brazile-mail:andfyoung@hotmail.com;andrea@cpa.unicamp.br C.A. NobreCCST – Center for Earth System Science, INPE (National Institute for Space Research),Avenida dos Astronautas, 1758, 12227-010 S˜ao Jos´e dos Campos, Brazile-mail:carlos@inpe.brK. Otto-Zimmermann (ed.),
Resilient Cities 2
, Local Sustainability 2,DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-4223-9 6,© Springer Science
C
Business Media B.V. 201253
 
54 A.F. Young and C.A. Nobre
The risks will be further exacerbated by the increase of temperatures andfrequency of heavy rainfall events, especially in the summer. Preliminary studiesindicate that between 2070 and 2100, an average rise from 2
ı
C to 3
ı
C of theregionaltemperaturecandoublethenumberofdayswith heavyrainfallinS˜ao Paulo(Marengo et al.2009).This paper introduces analyses from which projections for 2030 can be con-cluded. Through the application of a model projection of urban expansion inaccordance with HAND (height above the nearest drainage), the present and futureimpacts and vulnerabilities are presented in the aforementionedrisk scenarios. Thislandscapestudyidentifiespossibleareasforfutureoccupationandthepotentialrisksif current patterns of land use and occupation are maintained.The SPMR has a population of approximately 20 million inhabitants, in aterritory the size of 8,051 km
2
. The highest population density is in S˜ao Paulocity, which shelters nearly 11 million inhabitants making up 61% of citizens in anarea of 1,051 km
2
(SEADE Foundation2009). In addition, the municipalities of Guarulhos, Osasco, Santo Andre and S˜ao Bernardo do Campo each have more than500,000inhabitants.In the region,approximately40,000companiesand 5.7 millionpassenger cars (21% of the national total) are registered. The 12 million publictransportation journeys, in addition to the 8.1 million independent trips, contributeto the total of 30.5 million made per day.Aroundthree million vehicles circulate thestreets of the capital per day (PMSP1999).Industries and vehicles are responsible for the release of 6,575 t of air pollutantsdaily. This equates to 2,400,000 t/year. Currently, vehicles are responsible for40% of particulate emissions and 31% of sulphur dioxide (SO
2
), while otherindustries are responsible for 10% of particulate matter and 67% of SO
2
emissions.Dense urbanization is an important source of heat. The densest parts of themetropolitan area tend to be the warmest; the temperature decreases as the urbandensity decreases. The pollutants also affect the radiation and energy balance,
1
especially because particulates are composedof carbon,ozone (O
3
), carbon dioxide(CO
2
), etc.
2
Furthermore,regional temperature changes indicate an increase in the numberof hot days and nights and a decrease of cold days and nights respectively (Marengoet al.2009). These data indicate that the intensification of heat islands prevents thedispersion of pollutants, leading to a gradually increasing concentration. Findingsshow that residual pollutants, which are unable to disperse, are multiplied due toatmospheric photochemical processes. Within this perspective, to understand theimpacts and vulnerabilities to climate change is essential to propose adjustmentmeasures to make cities more resilient to the problems they already face.
1
Energy from exchanges of heat between the Earth and the atmosphere above.
2
This paragraph refers to a communication made by Maria de Fatima Andrade in 2010 (professorat the Astronomy and Geophysics Institute – IAG/USP).
 
Mapping Risk and Vulnerability in S˜ao Paulo Metropolitan Region 55
2 Methodological Considerations Regarding the AnalysisProcess
The study provides data and analysis that illustrate the impacts and projectionsfor 2030, through the identification of possible areas which may be occupied inthe future. Potential risks, if the usage pattern and current land use are maintainedwithout any changes, are identified and analysed.The HAND model identifies the risk areas susceptible to floods and landslides.The algorithm HAND (or vertical distance to the nearest drainage) proposes anapproach based on measures that could enable a more accurate representation of the terrain (Renn´o et al.2008; Nobre et al.2011). The HAND model is a descriptor algorithm that uses the terrain topographicinformation to extract hydrological information from an area. This information isobtained by estimating the relative height difference between each grid point andthe closest point of drainage associated with a stream (Renn´o et al.2008; Nobreet al.2011).The first task was to build a database, gathering public information on land use,urban expansion, conservation areas and river basins from the various agencies.These data form the basis for working on the ‘HAND’ and ‘Urban ExpansionModel’. Through the ‘Urban Expansion Model’, a visualization of the areas of expansion in 2030 was constructed.
3 What Is Changing?
The Metropolitan Region of S˜ao Paulo, which already suffers from floods everysummer, may have increased number of days with heavy rainfall until the end of thetwenty-first century. Total rainfall over 30 mm/day has the potential to cause severeflooding. Total rainfall above 50 mm/day, virtually non-existent before the 1950s(Fig.1), usually occurs two to five times a year in S˜ao Paulo.Increasing urbanization in combination with global warming events predicts thatextreme rainfall will occur more frequently in the future, increasingly affectingwider areas of the SPMR.
4 Where and How Vulnerable Is the SPMR?
Accordingto Brooks(2003),the vulnerabilityto climatechangeis primarilydefined as a function of the character of the perturbation. The focus is directed towards thephysicalmanifestationsofclimatechange(temperature,rainfall,etc.),thelikelihoodand frequency of its occurrence and the effects on human systems. In order to un-derstand and reducehuman vulnerability,it is necessary to know where and how the

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