22 2553 . . .

1.
15
2.

50,000
ACTUAL

45,000

Jun-93
Dec-94
Oct-95

40,000

Oct 96 (Base)
Jun 97 (Low )

35,000

Sep 98 (MER)
Feb-01
Aug 06

30,000

MW

Jan 04 (MEG)
Apr 06 Base
Jan 07

25,000

Mar 07(Low )

20,000

22,045

15,000

2535

: .

2564

2563

2562

2561

2560

2559

2558

2557

2556

2555

2552

2554

2553

2552

2551

2550

2549

2548

2547

2546

2545

2544

2543

2542

2541

2540

2539

2538

2537

2536

5,000

2535

10,000

2564

 10 (2541-2551)
MW

= 15%
10 = 20-35%

: 1) . 2) .

 2010

1.
..

2552

2573

22,045

52,890

( 30,845 20 )

2.

//

30,070

(/)

11,669

4,617

Cogeneration

7,137

215

54,005

( 4.2 )

 2573
Unit : MW

2552

2573

PDP2010
GDP

29,212
54,005
- 17,671
65,547

2553-2573
- . 1000 MW
- .
- .
- SPP Co Gen
- (VSPP, .)
- (.)
-

5,000 (. 5 )
16,670 (. 15 )
8,400 (. 9 )
7,137
4,617
512
11,669


2010

2529

2552

2573

 2010

2553-2573

15%

2573
52,890
65,547
=20-40% ()

 2010

2553-2573

2573
52,890
65,547
=20-40% ()

 ( 2550 )
5%

21%

49%
25%

= 21%

+ = 74%

133,132
: .

GWh


( 2551)

2,368 MW

2,578 MW

7,985 MW

10,000
9,000

8,816 MW (39%)
1,880 MW (8%)

8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000

8,816

7,985

3,000

2,000
1,000

: .

2,578

2,368

1,880

 3 16

65

110

128

148

175

188

193

211

219

230

237

246

254

258

278

278

: . 2549

123

278

81

75
: 2549


10,753

12,143

58,872

42,237

11,444
: 2551,

558

497

1,571

392

1,577

312

1,808

303

293

407

267

2,539

615

305


..2550

..2550

..2550

2007( 4,000 )

..2550

.
-
- (.)
- 2551-2553
- 3 1,800

.. 2551

.
14

.. 2553

(/)

3 (2551-2553)
1.

30

2.

10

3.

65

4.

30

5.

205

6.

85

7. (NPPDO)

25

45%

450
1,350

. 16 .. 50


()
()

()

.
( ..53)

-
-
- EIA
-
-

... 31 203
30 .
2546

...

, 2550

2548 (The
Chernobyl Forum)
42
9,000
200,000
2549 ( 20 )

66,000
2553
24
985,000 *

* Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment, the New York Academy of Sciences, April 2010


1,400

 17 200

 2551

67

(PWR)

(PWR)

Citizen Nuclear Information Center (CNIC), Tokyo, Japan

()

()

 7
(International Nuclear Event Scale : INES )

1-3 (Incident)
4-7 (Accident)

1
..2551 Tricastin

224 . - 74 .
-150 .

-
-

Bollene

(.. 2542, 4)
2
()



? ?

Yucca 20



21 . 2549

2551

( )

( )

 ' '

( . 29 2553)

-

.- - 28 .. 53

($/KW)

(/kWh)

. PDP 2007
PDP 2010

1,546
3,087

2.08
2.79

6,097

7.30

7,740

7,375

7,000

/,
,
:
' PDP 2007, 2550.
'' PDP 2010 4 2553.
''' PDP 2010 17 2553.
*California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), 2050 Multi-Sector CO2 Emissions Abatement Analysis Calculator, 2009
**Olkiluoto-3 Plant,cost has escalated 80% from US$4.7 billion as of October 2009.
***The Toronto Star, 14 July 2009 (bidding price of project was so high it led to cancellation)
****Moodys (Rating Agency), October 2009.

- 75 104 3
( Nuclear powers role in generating electricity, Congressional Budget Office, May 2008)

- 10 3
( The Economics of Nuclear Power, Greenpeace)

- Olkiluoto3 2548
3 3,200 5,500
- Framanville3 .. 2550

- (/// )
( 2,440 *)

-
*


Olkiluoto-3
()

-
-
-
2548
- 3
- 3.2
5.5
-
1,500

16

52

52
13 20
9 5-10
30 4

16

5

1

37
17
20