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Unit-1
Trading Mechanics
Introduction to the Energy Trade
Energy Commodities such as Oil and gas are of paramount importance in economiesworldwide. Oil, gas, hydro electricity, nuclear power and coal are the five constituents ofprimary oil. Oil and gas account for about 60 per cent of the total world’s primary oilconsumption. Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in a liquid phase innatural underground reservoirs. Nations struggle to explore for oil, and import it atalmost any cost. It is also an important contributor to the export realizations of manycountries. In countries like Russia, nearly half the hard currency earnings come fromcrude oil exports. The figure rises to about 80% for Venezuela and 95% for Nigeria andAlgeria.Oil has many applications and it is hard to imagine the modern world without it. Almostall industries including agriculture are dependent on oil in one way or other. Of theindustries, oil & lubricants, transportation (including road, rail, sea and air),petrochemicals (some of the end products of petrochemicals include plastics, syntheticfibres, detergents and chemical fertilizers etc.), pesticides and insecticides, paints,perfumes, etc. are largely and directly affected by the oil prices as several productsderived from crude oil are basic inputs in the production in these industries. The impacton these industries would result in spiraling effect on other industries and people.Without oil or its close associate natural gas, urban domestic life will become miserable.Oil light homes and streets and serves as a fuel for cooking. In cold countries, oil or gasis needed for heating homes. Metals are being progressively replaced by plastic, aproduct of oil and artificial fibres have made inroads into the domain of cotton. Theindispensable ropes for agriculture and fishing, hitherto made from jute, are now beingmade from plastics. Polythene (plastic) bags, sheets and covers become indispensablein modern day’s packaging and shopping. A wide range of chemicals, medicines andtoiletry items is derived from oil.
 
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There are in fact many products obtained from the processing of crude and otherhydrocarbon compounds. These include aviation gasoline, motor gasoline, naphtha,kerosene, jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas, lubricants,paraffin wax, petroleum coke, asphalt and other products. The prices of crude are highlyvolatile. High oil prices lead to inflation that in turn increases input costs; reduces non-oildemand and lower investment in net oil importing countries. India, which is a netimporter of oil, thus is often subject to the vagaries of price volatility in crude. Given thisscenario, crude futures will come as a boon to everyone, ranging from the governmentand corporate to retail users. Crude oil is marketed principally in New York, London andSingapore. Futures are sold promising next-month delivery at agreed amount, price andlocation, in a minimum of 1000 bbl, and are settled daily. Oil is priced relative to certainstandard kinds of crude. In London, it is Brent blend crude from the North Sea; about2/3 of the world's crude oil is priced in terms of Brent. In New York, West TexasIntermediate light, sweet crude is the standard. OPEC prices its oil in terms of a basketof seven crudes: Saudi Arab light, Emirates Dubai crude, Nigerian Bonny light, AlgerianSaharan blend, Indonesian Minas, Venezuelan Tia Juana, and Mexican Isthmus.Individual crudes are sold at a discount or premium, depending on quality and difficultyof transport. Crude oil is a very variable commodity.
World Wide Energy Scenario
In the past four years the world has
 
witnessed oil prices move from low of around $12per barrel to $70. Some analysts suggest that oil prices may cross $100 per barrel bynext year, but even at $100 the oil price will be in keeping with the adjusted real price atthe time of first oil shock. Within the energy scene, the 20
th
Century clearly belongs tooil. In this period, the share of oil has increased from practically nothing to as high as35-40%. This excludes non-commercial energy sources. During 1950-2000, demand foroil grew from 50 million barrels per day to 75 million barrels per day. In the last fiveyears, the estimated growth was another 10 million barrels per day. The large emergingeconomies in Asia will further push the demand by another 30 million barrels per day –a total of 115 million barrels per day by 2030.
 
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The global population has increased from 1.6 billion in 1990 to 6.4 billion in 2005 .Theaverage per capita supply of commercial energy has matched this increase .However,the global mean hides enormous regional and national inequalities. Per capita energyconsumption in India is less than one tenth of that of industrialized nations.Consequently, there is appalling loss of economic activity, productivity and efficiency.
Word Energy Demand
The IEO2006 reference case projects increased world consumption of marketed energyfrom all sources over the next two and one-half decades. Fossil fuels continue to supplymuch of the increment in marketed energy use worldwide throughout the projections.The total world energy consumption of oil is expected to decline from 37.8% percent in2005 to 33 percent in 2030, largely in response to higher world oil prices which woulddampen oil demand, whereas natural gas’s share is expected to increase from 23.6% inthe previous year to 26.3% in 2030.
TABLE 1: World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type (1980-2030) (quadrillion Btu)OilNaturalGas Coal Nuclear Renewables
1980 131 54 70 7.6 18.41990 136.1 75.2 89.4 20.4
 
24.1
 
2003
 
162.1 99.1 100.4 26.5
 
32.72004
 
165.5 102.2 104.4 26.9
 
34.52005
 
168.8 105.4 108.5 27.2
 
36.32010*
 
185.6 121.1 128.8 28.9
 
45.22020*
 
210.8
 
156.1 160.1 32.9 53.12030*
 
239.1
 
189.9 195.5 34.7 62.4
Note: *: ProjectionsSource:www.eia.doe.gov
 
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