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CHINDIA
THE 21
st
CENTURYCHALLENGE
•
32005
 
contents 
n.
3/2005 
2 Editorial 
CHINA 
 AND
INDIA 
OR 
CHINDIA?
4 
 
Margherita PAOLINI
 – 
 The Giants Take the Field
 
10 
 
Ryan FLOYD
– 
Seducing Delhi
16 
 
Barry DESKER
– 
Capt. Hook joins Al-Qaeda in the Malacca Straits
 
23 
 
Ajai SAHNI
– 
Nepal, the Agony of the
 Ancien Régime 
 
CHINA 
33 
 
Fabrizio VIELMINI
– 
Rebuilding the Silk Road(s)
 
35 
 
Wang XIAODONG
– 
Chinese Nationalism Manifesto
 
48 
 
Silvia SARTORI
– 
How China Sees India and the World
 
59 
 
Francesco SISCI
– 
Red Shadows Over the Yellow Sea
INDIA 
64 
 
P.M. KAMATH
– 
India-China-Pakistan: The Insecurity Triangle
 
73 
 
Kanwar Pal Singh GILL
– 
India is Tired of the Clash of Civilizations
81
 
Manas PAUL
– 
In Mongolian India Ethnic Guerrilla Rages
 
88 
 
Hiranmoy KARLEKAR
– 
If Bangladesh Becomes a Taliban State
93 
 
AUTHORS
 
 
CHINDIA, THE 21
st
CENTURY CHALLENGE
2
EDITORIAL
The Secret of Pansak 
I 
t has yet to begin and already it mustn’t be. Throughout the world the media hasdetermined that this will be the “Asian century”. By the beginning of the newmillennium it became fashionable to evoke the China of miracles, now joined by India.The slogan-makers coined a new term: Chindia, the Sino-Indian centaur of nearly twoand a half billion people predestined for global hegemony. Some with alarm, somewith hope, some just to follow the current; economists, journalists and politiciansroutinely rattle off the standard predictions for Asia’s supplanting the West. Bymid-century, the economy of Chindia could equal that of the rest of the planet, with alock on the development of leading technologies—instrument of control. According tothe American futurologists at the National Intelligence Council, the
annus horribil 
i
 s
 will be 2040, when the Chinese GDP surpasses America’s while India will reach third place in 2030, overtaking Japan and Germany. Recent CIA analyses already put theChinese GDP at second place, at least in terms of purchasing power parity. Thus theanticipated date would actually be 2015. Nor is it just the economy. At play is global power. Sooner or later, Americawill no longer be the only one in command, assuming that’s how it stands today. Thecompetition is open to determine who will join, and perhaps succeed, it as“hyperpower”. Candidate number one is China, especially if it manages to draw Indiaand a good part of Asia into its orbit. If the Middle Kingdom is the anti-America, theIndian giant is the marginal quantity, the swing power that will assign victory toBeijing or Washington.So says mainstream opinion, distilled in intelligence laboratories. A cocktail of economics, philosophy of history and strategic thought, plus a drop of prognostication,to be served hot (as the media is wont to do). The stimulating effect is guaranteed bythe diffused American and European ignorance of that which China and India—twocivilizations before they were states—meant for the world economy until less than twocenturies ago: in 1830 still, more than half of global production came from the twoAsian colossi. The CIA scenario for 2040 would hence be a return to past glories, in atotally new context.
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