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113969373 Silver Institute Outlook Silver Demand November2012

113969373 Silver Institute Outlook Silver Demand November2012

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confidential - not for distribution3-Year silver forecast - november 2012
the outlooK for silver industrial demand, november 2012
DWhile every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this document, the content of this documentis provided without any guarantees, conditions or warranties as to its accuracy, completeness or reliability. t is not to beconstrued as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell precious metal, related products, commodities, securities or relatednancial instruments. To the extent permitted by law, we, other members of our group of companies, third parties connectedto us and the ilver nstitute hereby expressly exclude:ll conditions, warranties and other terms which might otherwise be implied by statute, common law or the law of equity.ny liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage incurred by any person or organization reading or relyingon this document including (without limitation) loss of income or revenue, loss of business, loss of prots or contracts, lossof anticipated savings, loss of goodwill and whether caused by tort (including negligence), breach of contract or otherwise,even if foreseeable.By continuing to read this document, you agree to all the above terms and conditions in their entirety.
1. ntroduction & xecutive ummary 3
ntroduction 3
conomic Outlook 4
ndustrial Demand Outlook 4
2. Future Prospects for ilver ndustrial Fabrication 6
ntroduction 6
Forecast ummary 6
Forecast by ector 7 
Forecast by egion 8
3. The ole of ilver in onsumer and ndustrial Products 10
ntroduction 10
utomobiles 10
ell Phones 11 
Desktop and aptop omputers 11
Tablet omputers 12
Televisions 12
Photovoltaics 13
the outlooK for silver industrial demand, november 2012
Over the pst decde, silver industril dend hs enjoyed robust perfornce. at the turn of the illenniu worldindustril dend stood t 383.3 moz. This reected risingdend fro  growing rnge of consuer products,but ws lso due to strong infrstructure spending.The bursting of the “dot-co” bubble in 2001 led to pronounced drop, lthough  recovery phse quicklyeerged the following yer, rking the strt of  period ofseven consecutive yers in which globl industril offtkegrew, to  then record totl of 492.7 moz in 2008. Theextent of the recession-induced decline in 2009 eclipsedtht of 2001, but s severe s this outcoe ws, 2010not only sw industril dend register its lrgest oneyer gin, but lso  new high of 499.6 moz. The strongperfornce fro the industril sector hs lso beencrucil in ters of offsetting structurl declines elsewherein the silver rket, nely in photogrphy nd silverwre.Together in 2000, t round 315 moz, these two segentsccounted for over one-third of globl silver fbriction,but by 2011 their contribution hd fllen to just 13%, or 112moz.eturning to lst yer, it would be isleding to suggestfro this perfornce tht the industril sector is entirelyiune to the globl econoic bckdrop, but in thecontext of the sluggish econoic recovery, it ws perhpssurprising tht lst yer produced  fll of just  little under4%. The losses were lrgely concentrted in the doinntelectricl & electronics sector, in prt becuse of  declinein photovoltics.The 4% drop for the globl industril segent in 2011 lsohides soe quite vried intr-yer developents, nely strong rst hlf followed by  shrp fll towrds end-yer.The uncertinty crried over into 2012 nd it ws ginstthis bckdrop tht the ilver nstitute coissionedThoson euters GFm to not only guge the underlyinghelth of the rket, but lso to deterine if we wouldsee  repet of 2009’s rked downturn, or if in fct sufcient recovery would eerge during the ltter prt of2012 to counter the initil decline.elted to this nlysis, we hve lso produced nssessent of the silver content of  nuber of keyconsuer nd industril products. This helps to quntifynother key eleent of the industril forecst, nelythe ipct of thrifting nd substitution. These twinthees hve gined soe iportnce in recent yers sindustril fbrictors hve contended with rising nd,t ties, voltile silver prices. Tht sid, the shift wyfro silver in the brzing industry is rgubly prt of longer ter trend, pre-dting recent price ction. asiilr rguent pplies to consuer electronics in prtbecuse of the trend towrds products with  shortershelf-life. However, s the report sets out thrifting is lsogining oentu in soe key rket segents, suchs photovoltics. Tht sid, n iportnt liiting fctoris silver’s unique technicl properties nd, s we discussin the report, the growing rnge of silver-bering devicescn provide n iportnt offset to the thrifting discussedbove. n ddition, we lso highlight soe res wheresilver consuption is running “counter trend”, in otherwords those industries whose silver content (i.e. per unit ofdend) is tending to rise.Finlly, the report considers the outlook for the jorfbricting nd consuing silver industril rkets.Trditionlly dointed by the United ttes (ccountingfor 24% of the globl totl in 2011), we ssess theprospects of soe of its nerest rivls, including hin,whose contribution over the pst decde hs risen fro 11% shre in 2002 to 18% lst yer. This of coursereects the growing nufcture of silver coponents inthe doestic rket, but on  consuption bsis, hinenjoys  fr greter stnding, given its substntil iportsof sei-nufctured industril silver.
(illion ounces)
1992-01 2002-11 2012-14fag ag ag
ndustril Fbriction 313.4 436.9 483.3ource: Thoson euters GFmDUTa FaBaTOHa OF GOBa V OFFTaK
010203040506070IndustrialPhotographicJewelrySilverwareCoins & MedalsSource: Thomson Reuters GFMS% of Total Fabrication20002014F2011

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