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CHAPTER TWELVE
Climate Change
T
he effort to understand and respondto the risks of global climate changeentered a critical period in the mid-1990s.At the end of 1995, the Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)released its Second Assessment Report.Prepared by 2,500 of the world’s leadingexperts on climate change, this report pro-vides an exhaustive review of all aspects of climate change and its health, environ-mental, and economic impacts. Thereport concludes that “the balance of evi-dence suggests that human activities arehaving a discernible influence on globalclimate.”Efforts to address the risks of climatechange have moved forward under Presi-dent Clinton’s Climate Change ActionPlan, though reduced Congressionalfunding has limited the plan’s effective-ness. By the end of 1995, over 5,500 busi-nesses, schools, churches, and state andlocal governments were participating involuntary programs under the plan aimedat reducing net emissions of greenhousegases. These activities will reduce green-house gas emissions by millions of metrictons of carbon equivalent, saving UnitedStates’ industries and consumers billionsof dollars in reduced energy costs.International efforts to limit green-house gases have focused on discussionsunderway to strengthen the Framework Convention on Climate Change(FCCC). Originally signed at the RioSummit in 1992, the convention includesa “non-binding aim” of stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels inthe year 2000. In July 1996, at the SecondConference of the Parties to the ClimateConvention, the United Statesannounced its support for a framework based on “realistic, verifiable, and bind-ing” medium-term targets that wouldinclude the use of trading to enhance flex-ibility and reduce costs. The currentround of negotiations under the ClimateConvention is scheduled to conclude inDecember 1997.
BACKGROUND
The IPCC’s recently completed Sec-ond Assessment is the scientific communi-ty’s most exhaustive and thorough reviewto date of issues related to climate change.Key findings from the IPCC reportinclude the following:
 Physical Climate System
•The atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols areincreasing because of human activities.
 
•Greenhouse gases tend to warm theatmosphere, and sulfate aerosols causeregional cooling. Most greenhousegases will remain in the atmospherefor many decades to a century ormore; sulfate aerosols are removedafter several years.•The Earth’s surface temperaturehas increased by about one degreeFahrenheit over the last century.•Sea level has increased 4-10 inchesduring the last century, and mountainglaciers are retreating worldwide.•Models that account for theobserved increases in the atmosphericconcentrations of greenhouse gasesand sulfate aerosols are simulating therecent history of observed changes insurface temperature with increasingrealism.•The balance of evidence suggests adiscernible human influence on theEarth’s climate, remaining uncertain-ties notwithstanding.•Without global climate-specificpolicies to mitigate greenhouse gasemissions, the Earth’s temperature isprojected to increase by roughly 2 to 6degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, a rate of warming faster than any determinedfor the last 10,000 years.•These changes in temperature areprojected to be accompanied by anincrease in sea level of 6 to 38 inchesby 2100.•The atmospheric lifetime of manygreenhouse gases, coupled with thethermal inertia of the oceans, meansthat the warming effect of anthro-pogenic emissions will be long-lived—even sharp reductions in greenhousegas emissions would reverse warmingonly slowly.
 Ecological and SocioeconomicSystems
•Regional and global changes intemperature, precipitation, soil mois-ture, and sea level from climatechange add important new stresses onecological and socioeconomic systemsthat are already affected by pollution,increasing resource extraction, andnonsustainable management prac-tices.•Most systems are sensitive to boththe rate and magnitude of climatechange.•Projected changes in climate willresult in adverse effects on humanhealth (particularly via vector-bornediseases) and many ecological systems(especially forests) and socioeconomicsectors (e.g., the regional productionof food).•Developing countries would beparticularly vulnerable to theseimpacts.
 Adaptation and Mitigation
•Stabilization of atmospheric con-centrations of carbon dioxide at threetimes the pre-industrial concentrationsor less will eventually require globalemissions to drop below today’s levels.•A range of cost-effective technolo-gies and policies can be used in both
Climate Change
ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
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developed and developing countries tomarkedly reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases from industrial,energy supply, energy demand, andland management practices.•Deep long-term cost-effectivereductions will require an intensiveR&D program in energy, industrial,and crop technologies.•Flexible, cost-effective policies rely-ing on economic incentives andinstruments, as well as internationallycoordinated instruments, can consid-erably reduce mitigation and adapta-tion costs.•Potential adaptation options formany developing countries areextremely constrained due to the lim-ited availability of technological andeconomic options.•International and intergenerationalequity issues are critical for policy for-mulation.•There is justification for goingbeyond a “no-regrets” action strategy.“No-regrets” actions are those thatsave money or achieve other environ-mental goals while also reducinggreenhouse gas emissions.
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
The Climate System
A natural “greenhouse effect” keepsthe Earth about 33oC (nearly 60oF)warmer than it would otherwise be.Water vapor, carbon dioxide, and othergases trap heat as it is radiated from theEarth’s surface back to space—much asthe glass panels of a greenhouse trap heatinside. Without this natural greenhouseeffect, life as we know it would not bepossible.Over the entire history of the planet,global climate has varied substantially.During the last ice age, which endedroughly 17,000 years ago, the Earth wasan average of 9oF cooler, and much of North America was covered in severalthousand meters of ice. As the Earthwarmed over the next 10,000 years, theglacial ice melted back and sea levelsrose approximately 3 feet per century,among other things flooding our conti-nental shelves and shallow estuaries likethe Chesapeake Bay. As human societyevolved, it adapted to regional climatesand to slow shifts in natural variations.As a result of global industrializationand the spread of agriculture over thepast 200 years, human activities haveadded to the natural greenhouse effect byreleasing additional greenhouse gases tothe atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2)from burning fossil fuels is the primarysource of emissions. Since plants andsoils store large amounts of carbon, clear-ing forests for agriculture and other usesalso contributes a significant share.Other greenhouse gases include methane(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), as wellas chlorofluorocarbons and their substi-tutes (see Chapter 11, “StratosphericOzone,” for a discussion of the impact of chlorofluorocarbons on stratosphericozone). The resulting buildup of green-house gases in the atmosphere is enhanc-ing the natural greenhouse effect.
Climate Change
CHAPTER TWELVE
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