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Rpt GMTP 2013 03 Cw Peek

Rpt GMTP 2013 03 Cw Peek

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1
 March 2013 EditionRestricted & Confidential
Copyright 2012 © Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved general@GordonTLong.com
 
DESTABILIZING CURRENCY WARS
A Stalled Global Economy is Exposed to Destabilizing Currency Wars 
GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS - MARCH 2013
2/22/2013
 
 
2
 
March 2013
EditionRestricted & Confidential
 
Copyright 2012 © Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved general@GordonTLong.com
 
DESTABILIZING CURRENCY WARS
 
A Stalled Global Economy is Exposed to Destabilizing Currency Wars
GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS - MARCH 2013
TIPPING POINTS
........................................................................................................................ 9
 
GLOBAL
 
MACRO:
 
RISK
 
 ASSESSMENT
...................................................................................................................................................... 9
 
SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................................................................... 9
 
POSITIONAL FRAMEWORK: "WE ARE HERE!" 
......................................................................................................................................................... 9
 
Q1 2013 DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH 
..................................................................................................................................................................... 10
 
GLOBAL TRENDS - NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL
................................................................................................................................... 19
 
 A BROKEN PONZI SCHEME - BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 
.......................................................................................................................... 21
 
RISK CONTINUUM 
......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
 
MACRO MONITORING INSTITUTIONS ............................................................................................................................... 24
 
WEF (WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM)
.......................................................................................................................................................................... 24
 
IMF (INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND)
.............................................................................................................................................................. 39
 
OECD (ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION & DEVELOPMENT)
.............................................................................................. 54
 
MAPLECROFT (SCANNING THE GLOBE)
................................................................................................................................................................ 56
 
GLOBAL RISK SIGNALS ...................................................................................................................................................... 58 
 
RISK - SIGNS APLENTY, BUT NO ONE PANICKING - YET! 
.................................................................................................................................. 60
 
RISK - CANARIES SINGING AGAIN 
........................................................................................................................................................................... 62
 
RISK - COMPLACENCY & REPRESSED FEAR 
........................................................................................................................................................ 63
 
RISK - TIED TO EU IN 2012 
......................................................................................................................................................................................... 64
 
RISK - GLOBAL DERIVATIVE COLLATERAL
............................................................................................................................................................ 65
 
RISK - GLOBAL RISK MATRIX 
..................................................................................................................................................................................... 67 
 
RISK - GLOBAL MACRO HEADWINDS / TAILWINDS
.............................................................................................................................................. 67 
 
RISK - FOOD A GROWING GLOBAL INFLATION & SOCIAL UNREST RISK 
...................................................................................................... 69
 
RISK - INCREASINGLY DYSFUNCTIONAL CAPITALS MARKETS
....................................................................................................................... 74
 
RISK - GLOBAL RISK REWARD .......................................................................................................................................... 76 
 
RISK - RISING GEO-POLITICAL EVENT RISK 
.......................................................................................................................................................... 77 
 
GLOBAL
 
MACRO:
 
RISK
 
LEVELS
................................................................................................................................................................ 81
 
 AGGREGATED GLOBAL FINANCIAL RISK INDEX .............................................................................................................. 81
 
BANKING RISK - LIBOR-OIS SPREAD (Updated)
.................................................................................................................................................... 82
 
BANKING RISK - TED SPREAD (Updated)
................................................................................................................................................................ 82
 
CREDIT RISK - GLOBAL CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS (Updated)
.......................................................................................................................... 83
 
CREDIT RISK - EU CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS (Updated)
..................................................................................................................................... 84
 
CONSUMER RISK - HOUSING - RATE OF CHANGE (Reference)
........................................................................................................................ 85
 
ECONOMIC RISK - ECRI LEADING INDEX (Updated)
............................................................................................................................................. 86
 
INFLATION RISK - MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH - M3 (Updated)
............................................................................................................................ 87 
 
INFLATION RISK - MONEY VELOCITY (Updated)
.................................................................................................................................................... 88
 
MONETARY RISK - BANK LIABILITIES (Updated)
................................................................................................................................................... 88
 
COST OF MONEY RISK - INTEREST RATES (Updated)
........................................................................................................................................ 90
 
 AGGREGATED RISK LEVEL ................................................................................................................................................ 92 
 
TIPPING
 
POINTS:
 
CHANGES
...................................................................................................................................................................... 93
 
TIPPING POINT MAPPING: 2013 UPDATE .......................................................................................................................... 93
 
TIPPING
 
POINTS:
 
TOP
 
5
 
FOCUS
 
-
 
FEBRUARY 
 
2013
.......................................................................................................................... 102
 
I - RISK REVERSAL............................................................................................................................................................ 102 
 
II - JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION ............................................................................................................................................ 105 
 
III-BOND BUBBLE .............................................................................................................................................................. 108 
 
IV - EU BANKING CRISIS ................................................................................................................................................... 108 
 
V - SOVEREIGN DEBT ....................................................................................................................................................... 109
 
VI - CHINA HARD LANDING ............................................................................................................................................... 111
 
DRIVER$:
 
RISK-ON 
 
-
 
RISK-OFF 
 
 ANALYTICS
......................................................................................................................................... 115
 
1- G10 MACRO SURPRISE INDEX .................................................................................................................................... 118 
 
2- CUMULATIVE GLOBAL PMI ........................................................................................................................................... 121
 
 
 
3
 
March 2013
EditionRestricted & Confidential
 
Copyright 2012 © Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved general@GordonTLong.com
 
3- SLOWING GLOBAL EXPORTS ...................................................................................................................................... 127 
 
4- US NON-REVOLVING CONSUMER CREDIT ................................................................................................................. 130 
 
5- IBES' RELATIVE GLOBAL PE RATIOS .......................................................................................................................... 133
 
6- CONSENSUS EARNINGS ESTIMATES - Sell Side Analysts .......................................................................................... 139
 
7- INFLATION PRESSURES - Global Food Prices.............................................................................................................. 141
 
GLOBAL MACRO
................................................................................................................... 145
 
GLOBAL
 
MACRO:
 
ECONOMIC
 
OUTLOOK
............................................................................................................................................. 147
 
GLOBAL - Credit Fueled Globalization in Retreat ................................................................................................................ 147 
 
GLOBAL - Rogoff's Sovereign Debt Default Levels ............................................................................................................. 149
 
GLOBAL - Fiscal Adjustments Required .............................................................................................................................. 152 
 
GLOBAL - Imbalances Continue to Increase Along With Financial Fragility ......................................................................... 152 
 
GLOBAL - A 67 Million Jobs Gap ........................................................................................................................................ 155 
 
GLOBAL - Center of Global Manufacturing Confirmed to be Shifting Away from developed Countries ................................ 158 
 
GLOBAL - Mercantilist China the Clear Winner Globally, Mercantilist Germany Regionally ................................................. 159
 
IMF CUTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ..................................................................................................................................... 161
 
IMF Cuts Advanced Economies Growth by 25% from 2.0% to 1.5%
..................................................................................................................... 161
 
IMF Cuts Growth from 3.9% to 3.6% and Increases Deficit Multiplier by 100 to 200%
........................................................................................ 168
 
WARNINGS ........................................................................................................................................................................ 170 
 
IMF WARNS
.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 170
 
BIS WARNS
................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 174
 
WORLD BANK WARNS
............................................................................................................................................................................................... 175
 
GLOBAL
 
MACRO:
 
INDICATORS
............................................................................................................................................................... 177
 
GROWTH............................................................................................................................................................................ 177 
 
Slowing Global Economies
.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 177 
 
Global GDP Growth Trending Down by Region and Cumulatively 
......................................................................................................................... 178
 
Global PMI 
..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 179
 
Global Recession
.......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 181
 
Slowing Global Growth - Air Cargo Shipments
......................................................................................................................................................... 182
 
GOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT ................................................................................................................................................. 183
 
Global Unemployment Rising - 202 Million
................................................................................................................................................................ 183
 
TRENDS ............................................................................................................................................................................. 185 
 
BRANDS & COMMODITIES: Tell the Global Story 
.................................................................................................................................................. 185
 
SENTIMENT ....................................................................................................................................................................... 197 
 
NIELSEN (Global Consumer Confidence, Concerns & Spending Intentions)
....................................................................................................... 197 
 
INFLATION ......................................................................................................................................................................... 208 
 
Food Prices, Driver of Social Unrest 
........................................................................................................................................................................... 208
 
Food Price Manipulation in Thailand 
.......................................................................................................................................................................... 209
 
GLOBAL
 
MACRO:
 
MONETARY
 
POLICY
 
&
 
CENTRAL
 
BANKING
........................................................................................................ 210
 
The "OMF" Trial Balloon Raised .......................................................................................................................................... 211
 
Financial Times: Martin Wolf - "The Case For Helicopter Money" 
.......................................................................................................................... 212
 
Financial Times: Martin Wolf - "The Case To Reset Basis of Monetary Policy" 
.................................................................................................... 215
 
Financial Times: Gavyn Davies On Why Helicopters Are Dangerous
.................................................................................................................... 216
 
 A Conundrum for the World's Central Bankers
.......................................................................................................................................................... 219
 
PBOC - China ..................................................................................................................................................................... 221
 
Chinese Liquidity Pump Unplugged 
............................................................................................................................................................................ 221
 
BOE - UK ............................................................................................................................................................................ 223
 
Mark Carney and "Flexible Inflation Targeting" 
......................................................................................................................................................... 223
 
FED - US............................................................................................................................................................................. 224
 
FOMC January Minutes Un-Nerve Markets
............................................................................................................................................................... 224
 
Congress Asks Bernanke For Full Risk Analysis On Fed's Soaring Balance Sheet 
............................................................................................. 225
 
BOJ - JAPAN ...................................................................................................................................................................... 229
 
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe prepares to print money for the whole world 
................................................................................................. 229
 
Shinzo Abe’s Monetary 
-Policy Delusions
................................................................................................................................................................... 230
 
BOJ Governor Job Suddenly Available in Historical "Abenomics U-Turn" 
............................................................................................................. 233
 
Japanese Economic Policy Goes The Full Ponzi 
...................................................................................................................................................... 234
 
ECB - EU ............................................................................................................................................................................ 236 
 
Japan Will Effectively Monetize European Debt 
........................................................................................................................................................ 236
 
TARGET-2 Imbalances - "The Debt Crisis Is Eating Its Way Ever Further Into Europe's Core" 
......................................................................... 236
 
Draghi Will Soon Be Forced to Start Printing - Again! 
.............................................................................................................................................. 238
 
COMBINED ......................................................................................................................................................................... 242 
 
Global Balance Sheet Expansion
................................................................................................................................................................................ 242
 
Where Do these Deflators Come From?
.................................................................................................................................................................... 246
 
First Remove Gold Standard, Now Remove Debt 
.................................................................................................................................................... 247 
 

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