Weather Briefing February 25, 2013---Page 1

In this update: Potentially significant flooding likely today Severe weather also possible this afternoon and overnight
Overview:
A strong system is already impacting the forecast area and is expected to strengthen further as a potent upper level system across the Plains nears the Gulf Coast later today. Plenty of Pacific and Gulf moisture overrunning a frontal boundary just offshore will lead to widespread steady rainfall this morning with embedded areas of heavier showers and storms. Then, later this afternoon as the potent upper level system approaches from the west, the potential for severe weather will increase, initially with a tornado threat and later with a strong squall line. As is often the case in the winter months, the potential for severe weather is largely dependent on how much instability exists across the area. The overall primary threat with this system is the potential for significant flash flooding, especially across the already rain-soaked areas of Southeast Alabama, Southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.

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What has already fallen across the region:

The image above depicts rainfall amounts that have fallen from the first system and through 6 am ET this morning. Areas in dark red indicate rainfall amounts in excess of 8 inches, with orange and lighter red colors matching with 4 to 6 inch amounts. Notice that much of the region has experienced heavy rainfall over the past few days, which will only make the potential for flash flooding, followed by dangerous river flooding, that much more likely.

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The severe weather portion of the event: This system will present a dual hazardous weather threat to the region. While heavy rainfall will be the primary concern, there is the potential for severe storms late this afternoon through the overnight hours. This threat is conditional based on increasingly unstable air moving in from the Gulf of Mexico. The image below depicts the area most at risk for severe weather starting Monday afternoon. Notice the higher wind potential (red shaded area) just to the west of our region.

The threat initially with this system Monday afternoon is for predominantly isolated tornadoes as the warm front associated with this system moves inland. Then, later Monday evening and especially Monday night, a strong squall line is expected to move through the forecast area. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with this squall line. The severe weather threat may briefly last through daybreak on Tuesday across areas in the Southeast Florida Big Bend. The severe weather threat should end by midday Tuesday.

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Flooding Hazards with this system:

The latest computer models indicate that widespread rainfall totals of as much as 4 to 6 inches of rain could be possible across Southeast Alabama and into Southwestern Georgia. Isolated maximum totals of 8 to 10 inches are possible for areas impacted by the strongest storms. Lesser values are expected further to the southeast across the Florida Big Bend. The bulk of the rainfall is expected to fall across areas already saturated from previous rains. This will create a dangerous and potentially significant flash flood risk across the area. As a result, a flash flood watch is in effect for a large portion of the forecast area through Tuesday morning.

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River flooding is still a significant concern with many area rivers rising into minor flood stage with additional rises expected. Several of the river forecast points have active flood warnings. Make sure to check the latest forecast for the gages in your county. To do this, please visit our AHPS page by going to: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

This image above represents the maximum forecast stage for our area rivers through Friday. Notice that many river points are predicted to reach moderate flood stage, with the lower Choctawhatchee at Bruce reaching major stage. Depending on additional rainfall amounts, these forecast points could see additional revisions over the next couple of days.

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Timing of this system:

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Note that there is some potential of an isolated severe storm developing around this time period near the coast, but the threat remains low for this specific time period.

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The severe threat will be increasing through the late afternoon and early evening hours as shown here.

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Summary: ** More heavy rainfall is expected through Tuesday morning. Flash flooding potential will be significant across Southeast Alabama, Southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle, especially by Monday afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches are possible with isolated maximum amounts in excess of 8 inches. ** Some storms could be strong to severe starting this afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours. ** Potentially significant river flooding, with some locations reaching major flood, likely may follow in the days ahead. If you have any questions, please give our office a call at 850-942-8833 or on our toll free line at 800-598-4562 and ask to speak to a meteorologist. We are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. You can also reach us on our Southern Linc phone at 1*77*284.