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EMBriefMonAm

EMBriefMonAm

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Published by Michael Allen
severe weather alert
severe weather alert

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Published by: Michael Allen on Feb 25, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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02/25/2013

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Weather Briefing February 25, 2013---Page 1
In this update:
 
Potentially significant flooding likely today
 
 
Severe weather also possible this afternoon and overnight
 
Overview
:
as the potent upper level system approaches from the west, the potential for severe weather willincrease, initially with a tornado threat and later with a strong squall line. As is often the case inthe winter months, the potential for severe weather is largely dependent on how muchinstability exists across the area.The overall primary threat with this system is the potential for 
significant
flash flooding,especially across the already rain-soaked areas of Southeast Alabama, Southwestern Georgia,and the Florida Panhandle.A strong system isalready impactingthe forecast areaand is expected tostrengthen further as a potent upper level systemacross the Plainsnears the Gulf Coast later today.Plenty of Pacificand Gulf moistureoverrunning afrontal boundary just offshore willlead to widespreadsteady rainfall thismorning withembedded areas of heavier showersand storms. Then,later this afternoon
 
Weather Briefing February 25, 2013---Page 2
What has already fallen across the region:
The image above depicts rainfall amounts that have fallen from the first system and through 6am ET this morning. Areas in dark red indicate rainfall amounts in excess of 8 inches, withorange and lighter red colors matching with 4 to 6 inch amounts. Notice that much of the regionhas experienced heavy rainfall over the past few days, which will only make the potential for flash flooding, followed by dangerous river flooding, that much more likely.
 
Weather Briefing February 25, 2013---Page 3
The severe weather portion of the event:
This system will present a dual hazardous weather threat to the region. While heavy rainfall will be the primary concern, there is the potential for severe storms late this afternoon through theovernight hours. This threat is conditional based on increasingly unstable air moving in fromthe Gulf of Mexico. The image below depicts the area most at risk for severe weather startingMonday afternoon. Notice the higher wind potential (red shaded area) just to the west of our region.The threat initially with this system Monday afternoon is for predominantly isolated tornadoesas the warm front associated with this system moves inland. Then, later Monday evening andespecially Monday night, a strong squall line is expected to move through the forecast area.Damaging winds will be the primary threat with this squall line. The severe weather threat may briefly last through daybreak on Tuesday across areas in the Southeast Florida Big Bend. Thesevere weather threat should end by midday Tuesday.

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