NEW YORK WASHINGTON, D.C. HARTFORD LOS ANGELESGLOBALSTRATEGYGROUP.COM
Casino Gambling Ballot Proposal Faces Uphill Battle
Majority of Statewide voters would vote NO on the current proposal in Albany
Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 804 likely 2013 General Election voters in NewYork State between January 26-30, 2013 exploring the viability of a casino gambling ballotproposal. Key findings are as follows:
Statewide voters would vote against the current proposal in Albany to legalize casinogambling, build three full-scale casinos upstate and leave the option for four additionalcasinos.
Half of voters (50%) would vote no on this proposal, while 44% would vote yes.
A majority of voters in New York City (44% yes / 52% no) and upstate (41% / 52%) wouldvote against this proposal, while voters in the suburbs are split (49% / 44%).
The core of opposition to this proposal comes from older voters
a concerning fact becauseolder voters are most likely to vote in lower turnout off-year elections like this one. Seniors65+ (39% yes / 54% no), and especially women 55+ (33% / 58%), are most likely to opposethe proposal, while voters under 65 are much more mixed (47% / 48%).
Other variations of the casino gambling ballot proposal would face similar oppositionamong voters.
A majority of voters are opposed to two other versions of the ballot proposal
a plan to build seven full-scale casinos outside of New York City (44% yes / 51% no), and a planto build only three full-scale casinos upstate (41% yes / 53% no).
The only plan that has majority support is the proposal to build six full-scale casinos outsideNew York City and a seventh by converting the existing racetrack casino at Aqueduct into afull-scale casino (50% yes / 44% no).
Note that our research is different from other publicly available data on casino gamblingbecause it was specifically designed to test the viability of a ballot proposal in thecontext of a 2013 election:
This survey was conducted among those voters likely to vote in a 2013 statewide generalelection. It is necessary to evaluate the viability of a ballot proposal among likely votersbecause in recent odd-year elections (average of 2001, 2005, 2009), only a third (33%) of allregistered voters turned out to vote. Meanwhile, the major public polls (Quinnipiac, Siena,etc.) all typically conduct their polls among registered voters.
This survey was conducted to determine the viability of ballot proposal
voters would vote “yes” or “no” on th
is proposal. Our survey included specific language onballot proposals to give voters context on this election. Most public polling questions oncasino gambling ask voters their positions
in terms of “support” and “oppose”
of gamingwithout mention of a possible referendum or ballot proposal.
Global Strategy Group
Casino Gambling and the 2013 electorate
February 5, 2013