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The External Economy

The External Economy

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Published by: gkmishra2001 at gmail.com on Feb 23, 2009
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VI. THE EXTERNAL ECONOMY
India’s balance of payments position remained comfortable during 2007-08,notwithstanding a sharp increase in merchandise trade deficit on account of sustained demand for non-oil imports and escalation in international crude oilprices. Net surplus under invisibles remained buoyant, led by high growth inprivate transfers and software exports, thereby offsetting a significant part of the trade deficit. Consequently, the current account deficit was contained at1.5 per cent of GDP during the year. Net capital inflows increased substantiallyduring 2007-08, led by foreign direct investment, portfolio investments andexternal commercial borrowings (ECBs). Outward foreign direct investmentincreased, reflecting the global expansion by Indian companies. Significantlylarger net capital inflows over the current account deficit resulted in an accretionof US $ 110.5 billion to the foreign exchange reserves during 2007-08 (US $47.6 billion during 2006-07).
International Developments
The global economy expanded by 5.0 per cent in 2007 as against 5.1 percent in 2006. After a stronger than expected growth in the third quarter of 2007, most of the advanced economies recorded a sharp deceleration in theirgrowth towards the end of the year 2007 driven mainly by the financial crisiswhich spread beyond the US sub-prime mortgage market (Table 52). Accordingto the projections released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July2008, the slowdown in global growth, which started in the middle of last year,is expected to continue through the second half of 2008, with only a gradualrecovery during 2009. However, the fears of a significant slowdown did notcome true in the first quarter of 2008. Countries/regions like Euro area, theUS and Korea registered more or less same growth rates in the first quarter of 2008 as in the previous quarter. The UK and the Japanese economy exhibiteddeceleration in the first quarter of 2008. In contrast, emerging and developingeconomies continued to grow above trend despite some slackening of growthrates in the first quarter of 2008.The IMF has projected the US economy to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2008(2.2 per cent in 2007). The US growth prospects, according to the IMF, wouldhinge upon the future course of the housing correction, extent of financialsector dislocation, and the ensuing impact on household and business finances.
86
 
87The External Economy
Table 52: Growth Rates - Global Scenario
(Per cent)P : IMF Projections.
Note
:Data for India in columns 2 and 3 refer to fiscal years 2006-07 and 2007-08, respectively.
Source
:International Monetary Fund; The Economist; and the OECD.Region/Country200620072008P2009P 20072008Q1Q2Q3Q4Q112345678910
Advanced Economies
Euro area2.82.61.71.23.02.52.72.22.1Japan2.42.11.51.52.61.61.92.01.3Korea5.15.04.24.44.05.05.25.75.8UK2.93.11.81.73.03.13.32.82.5US2.92.21.30.81.91.92.82.52.5OECD Countries3.12.71.81.72.82.53.02.72.6
Emerging Economies
Argentina8.58.77.04.58.08.78.79.18.4Brazil3.85.44.94.04.35.45.76.25.8China11.611.99.79.811.111.911.511.210.6India9.69.08.08.09.79.29.38.88.8Indonesia5.56.36.16.36.06.36.56.36.3Malaysia5.96.35.05.35.35.76.77.37.1Thailand5.14.85.35.64.34.44.95.76.0
The Euro Area is expected to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2008 (2.6 per cent in2007), while there are increasing concerns that with spillovers from the US,tightening credit conditions and rising risk spreads may have adverseimplications for the domestic demand. The growth momentum in Japan isprojected to decelerate to 1.5 per cent in 2008 (2.1 per cent in 2007) on accountof expected moderation in export growth and consumption. Growth projectionfor developing Asia by the IMF is placed at 8.4 per cent for 2008 as against10.0 per cent in 2007 (Table 53). Growth in emerging Asia during the firstquarter of 2008 was led by China and India. GDP in China grew by 10.6 percent in the first quarter of 2008. The IMF has projected that growth in Chinawould moderate to 9.7 per cent in 2008 (11.9 per cent in 2007).Going forward, the growth in global economy is projected to moderate to4.1 per cent in 2008 mainly on account of expected slowdown in most of theadvanced economies, particularly the US. The overall balance of risks to theshort-term global growth outlook remains tilted to the downside. Interactionbetween negative financial shocks and the domestic demand remains a seriousdownside risk for the US and to some extent in Western Europe and elsewhere.However, there is some upside potential for projected domestic demand inemerging economies. The emerging market and developing economies are
 
88Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments: First Quarter Review 2008-09
expected to remain the key factor in supporting the global economy and incushioning global downturns mainly because of their limited direct exposure tosub-prime related securities. Consumption activity supported domestic demandin other emerging Asian economies while export growth began to show somesigns of moderation. The strength of domestic demand in the region combinedwith rising food and energy prices, however, led to the build-up of inflationarypressures in a number of countries in emerging Asia. Apart from the possibilityof further credit crunch, downside risks to global growth, therefore, includecontagion from the likely US recession, increased inflationary pressures drivenby rising food and energy prices, and persisting global imbalances.
Table 53 : Select Economic Indicators - World
Item2002200320042005200620072008P2009P123456789
I. World Output (Per cent change) #
2.83.64.94.45.15.04.13.9(1.9)(2.6)(4.0)(3.4)(3.9)(3.7)(2.6)(2.6)i)Advanced Economies1.61.93.22.63.02.71.71.4ii)Other Emerging Market andDeveloping Countries4.76.27.57.17.98.06.96.7
of which:
Developing Asia6.98.18.69.09.910.08.48.4
II. Consumer Price Inflation (Per cent)
i)Advanced Economies1.51.82.02.32.42.23.42.3ii)Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries6.76.65.95.75.46.49.17.4
of which:
Developing Asia2.02.54.13.84.15.35.94.1
III. Net Capital Flows* (US $ billion)
i)Net Private Capital Flows (a+b+c)**89.8168.6241.9251.8231.9605.0330.7441.5a) Net Private Direct Investment157.2166.2188.7259.8250.1309.9306.9322.4b) Net Private Portfolio Investment-92.2-13.216.4-19.4-103.848.5-72.231.0c) Net Other Private Capital Flows25.117.138.513.387.5248.898.090.0ii)Net Official Flows-0.6-50.0-70.7-109.9-160.0-149.0-162.3-149.8
IV. World Trade @
i)Volume3.55.410.77.69.26.85.65.8ii)Price Deflator1.110.49.65.54.98.28.61.1
V. Current Account Balance (Per cent to GDP)
i)US-4.4-4.8-5.5-6.1-6.2-5.3-4.3-4.2ii)China2.42.83.67.29.411.19.810.0iii)Middle East4.88.311.819.720.919.823.019.4P:IMF Projections.#:Growth rates are based on exchange rates at purchasing power parities. Figures in parentheses are growth ratesat market exchange rates.*:Net capital flows to emerging market and developing countries.**:On account of data limitations, flows listed under ‘Net Private Capital Flows’ may include some official flows.@:Average of annual percentage change for world exports and imports of goods and services.
Source
: World Economic Outlook, April 2008; World Economic Outlook Update, July 2008, International Monetary Fund.

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