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Utility Trends 2009: Capitalizing on VolatilityUtility Trends 2009: Capitalizing on Volatility
IGCCWind turbinesAdvanced nuclear Concentrated solar Transmission & DistributionOil
This is the 9
th
annual collaborative report prepared by:
Marc Goldsmith, PresidentKaren Hamilton, PresidentMarc Goldsmith & Associates, LLCH
 
amilton Consulting
 
Page 2
Trends Overview 2007
This is the 9
th
annual editionof our 
Utility Trends
. Therehave been significantdevelopments in bothmarkets and regulationssince last year’s
Utility Trends
. The informationcontained herein is adistillation of concerns raisedby the authors and their worldwide clients.
Utility Trends
is intended as a toolfor innovative thinking aboutthe rapidly changing utilityenvironment and as acontext for strategic planning.These trends are predictionsbased on experience andresearch: a number of factorscan influence the accuracy,speed, and direction of thesepredictions.
 
This is the 9
th
annual editionof our 
Utility Trends
. Therehave been significantdevelopments in bothmarkets and regulationssince last year’s
Utility Trends
. The informationcontained herein is adistillation of concerns raisedby the authors and their worldwide clients.
Utility Trends
is intended as a toolfor innovative thinking aboutthe rapidly changing utilityenvironment and as acontext for strategic planning.These trends are predictionsbased on experience andresearch: a number of factorscan influence the accuracy,speed, and direction of thesepredictions.
Fuel VolatilityEconomic VolatilityPolitical VolatilityFinancial Volatility
123
Trends Overview 2009Trends Overview 2009
4
Note: This document is concerned with utility trends. A separatetrendsreport focusing on the renewable energy sector will be released in May.
 
Page 3
First PrinciplesFirst Principles
Volatility is defined asVolatility is defined asunpredictable change. Thisunpredictable change. Thisdocument is concerned document is concerned with four kinds of with four kinds of volatility volatility ——fuel, economic,fuel, economic, political and financial. political and financial.For a time, the economy For a time, the economy was believed to have beenwas believed to have beenin a period of decreased in a period of decreased volatility, dubbed volatility, dubbed “ “ TheTheGreat ModerationGreat Moderation” ” ,,because many economic because many economic variables appeared to havevariables appeared to haveachieved relative stability.achieved relative stability.The return of volatility isThe return of volatility isan indication that thean indication that theconcepts behind the Great concepts behind the Great Moderation were guided by Moderation were guided by false beliefs.false beliefs.
A healthy utility industry is essential to a healthy U.S.economy …and healthy customers are essential to ahealthy industry.
Many of the fundamentals that have guided the industryfor the last 75 years are in transition.
Volatility is a given …how you respond is your call.
Low fuel prices are not sustainable …plan for a high fuelprice future.
Winners are made in down times …requiring action inless than ideal circumstances.
Even the most disciplined planning cannot anticipateradical changes that can alter the landscape and theoutcome …flexibility and agility are critical.
Inaction is the riskiest response in uncertain times.
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