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ECEEE 2007 SUMMER STUDY • SAVING ENERGY – JUST DO IT!PANEL 1. THE FOUNDATIONS OF A FUTURE ENERGY POLICY
heterogeneous levels o electricity security, quality, reliability
and availability (SQRA) that match the requirements o vari-
ous end-uses, thereby potentially lowering expectations or
improvements in the macrogrid to meet the needs o a digital
society, and 3. appearing to the macrogrid as a controlled entity,
akin to a current local utility customer, or conversely akin toa small embedded generation source, i the μgrid exports. Te
materials presented are based on presentations at a series o
international symposiums held in the U.S. in 005, in Canadain 006, and a third in Nagoya, Japan, in April 007. Materialsrom these events can be ound at http://der.lbl.gov
Dispersed Generation Paradigm Shift
rends emerging in the power system suggest that the highly
centralized paradigm that has dominated power systems or the
last century may eventually be replaced, or at least diluted, by an alternative. In the new paradigm, control is more dispersed,and universal SQRA is replaced by heterogeneous service tai-lored to the requirements o highly diverse classes o end-uses.Tis shi may be thought o as comparable to the replacemento centralised computing by desk and laptop computers, or theswitch rom land based telecommunications to mobile devices.Our current power delivery paradigm has been in place world-wide or a long time, i.e. since the emergence o polyphase ACsystems around the turn o the last century. SQRA targets are
consistent virtually all across vast regions, e.g. all o North
America, and where standards cannot be met, it is usually the
result o a local technical dif culty and not the outcome o a
deliberate attempt to deviate rom the norm. Emerging changeson the demand-side include our seemingly unquenchable thirstor electricity, in large part driven by the increasingly dominant
role o commercial building use in post-industrial economies,by an emerging digital age that is signicantly tightening our
SQRA requirements, by the emergence o viable small-scaleossil generation oen with power electronics and CHP, andby an urgent need to incorporate small-scale renewable gen-
eration to abate carbon emissions. Meanwhile, on the supply-side, concerns about terrorism, restrictions on system expan-sion, and the uncertainties o volatile markets in energy-short
times bring our ability to maintain current SQRA standards
into doubt.
Two Visions of the Future Grid
wo alternative visions in current currency o how the power
system might be retooled to provide high SQRA are a
super-
grids
view and a
dispersed
paradigm. Tese are obviously only
two o many possible paths and ull justice cannot be given here
to the technical intricacies o any specic vision. Te intent is
only to contrast in a comprehensible way the central theme
o two divergent alternatives. For more detail on a supergrids view, see Gellings
et al
(004), Amin (005), or Amin and Wol-lenberg (005). A comprehensible vision or a dispersed grid is
presented by the European Commission (2006), or, or other
voices rom the dispersed camp, see Lasseter
(006) or Marnay
and Venkataramanan (2006), but these are by no means the
only contributors to this ongoing debate.
SUPERGRIDS VISION
A supergrids vision is shown in Figure 1. Te x-axis o Figure 1shows the history o the current centralised paradigm, and they-axis reliability expresses as nines, e.g. 3 nines implies 99.9 %
availability. Te equivalent annual expected outage times are
shown or reerence. Te SQRA o delivered electricity has mul-
tiple dimensions, e.g. voltage swells and sags, harmonic distor-tion, etc. Reliability is used here as a representative dimension
because it is much more easily comprehended than others,
and we have some intuitive sense o its historical trajectory, asshown. In the early days o centralized power systems, electric-ity was supplied by small local stations with only very ew gen-erators to a limited number o customers, in the very early daysusing DC. Tese highly unreliable systems were consolidatedby ones covering large areas based on Nikola esla’s conceptsor large-scale AC systems. Tis interconnection naturally im-proved reliability because many more generators were simul-taneously available. Te green arrow shows how this process,
together with signicant and steady technological progress,resulted in steadily improving reliability, reaching the levels
experienced in North America today; however, note that reli-
1,074 MARNAY, FIRESTONE
Figure 1. Schematic of a Supergrids Vision
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