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NAB Online Retail Sales Index January 2013

NAB Online Retail Sales Index January 2013

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Published by: Belinda Winkelman on Mar 04, 2013
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1
NAB Online Retail Sales Index
Indepth report – January 2013
n
A snapshot o the key ndings in the latest NAB OnlineRetail Sales Index reveals that online continues to shapethe Australian marketplace. Online retail sales rose to anestimated A$13 billion in the year to January 2013 and is nowequivalent to 5.8% o traditional bricks and mortar sales(excluding ood). Growth remains strong, up 27% year-on-year in January 2013, even though January is typically aweaker month or the online sector (chart 1). Soter spendingpatterns ollow a pre-Christmas rise in sales in November.The January 2013 results highlight a stronger post Christmasperiod than in January 2012. Online remains much strongerthan traditional retail (up just 0.4% year-on-year in December2012, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis).Trends in the individual sub-sectors o online retailingremain divergent, with Household Goods & Electronicsshowing above average growth over the last three months,particularly in November 2012 – coinciding with the launcho the Apple iPad Mini and MacBooks with retina display –ater a long period o underperormance. The index or thissub-sector moderated in January, though is considerablyhigher relative to last year.Those aged in their 30s and 40s remain the key demographicor online spending, while Western Australia’s share ospending continues to rise, as the state outpaces the rest othe nation in growth terms.
– Alan Oster, Group Chief Economist, NAB
n
It’s clear that our domestic retailers are now ullycomprehending the potential o the online retail channel.Our latest Online Retail Sales Index reveals that thisconstituency, who account or almost three quarters o sales,have continued to record strong growth in recent monthsand outpace international sales growth (chart 2). Domesticsales increased by 28% year-on-year in January, comparedwith 25% year-on-year or international retailers.The key or retailers is to ensure their online oferingcomplements and supports their core business. Successulretailers are providing their customers with alternative waysto shop. In return, the retailer can generate additional salesactivity not based on store-wide heavy discounting. Retailersare also adopting live inventory management techniques toull sales and enhance stock turnover.The changing landscape means tools that clients can use tohelp shape their customers’ experiences are more importantthan ever – we remain committed to providing the insightand understanding that helps transorm the retail market.
– Tiernan White, Retail Sector Head & Head of NAB Corporate (NSW)
© 2013 National Australia Bank Limited ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL and Australian Credit Licence 230686 A101168-0213
50403020100ABS retail sales (ex. takeaway food)Online Index
Chart 1:
Growth in online sales vs. retailales
(%, yoy)
Jan-11Jul-11 Jul-12Jan-12 Jan-13
70605040302010InternationalDomestic
Chart 2:
Growth in online sales by retaillocation
(%, yoy)
Jan-11Jul-11 Jul-12Jan-12 Jan-13
Table .
Key online retail statistics
Index pointsyoy growth (%)
Nov12Dec12Jan13Nov12Dec12Jan13
OnlineIndex241.0227.0202.226.522.827.2Domesticsales235.8219.1193.929.222.727.9Internationalsales257.5251.7228.618.922.825.3
All data is non-seasonally adjusted (nsa). Online sales data is produced by Quantium.Traditional retail sales data is sourced rom the Australian Bureau o Statistics (ABS).Analysis is provided by NAB Group Economics.
 
2
25
%
27
%
Growth in traditionalretail sales (December)
At a glance
Domestic vs international
(nsa, January yoy)
Traditional vs online
(nsa, January yoy)Growth in onlineretail sales
0.4
%
Growth in domesticonline retail salesGrowth in internationalonline retail sales
5.8
%
Domestic online retailers accountedfor around 73
%
of total online salesOnline purchases hit $13bn or5.8
%
of the size of traditional retailing
28
%
73
%
Share of spending by age group
Share of spend (%)
Share of spending by state
Share of spend (%)
NT
1.2
%
QLD
18.8
%
SA
6.6
%
Per capita (Index)
NSW VICQLDWA SATASACT NT 136.3103.593.7126.4116.999.393.290.4100
WA
12
%
ACT
2.1
%
TAS
2.2
%
NSW
33.5
%
VIC
23.4
%
Australia – regional purchasesAustralia – metropolitan purchasesShare of spend (%)
Share of spending by region
47
%
21
%
19
%
14
%
40s
47
%
22
%
17
%
14
%
50s
39
%
22
%
15
%
24
%
60+
48
%
30s
18
%
21
%
13
%
53
%
<30
16
%
27
%
5
%
All ages
48
%
19
%
20
%
13
%
Share of total online spend by sector and age group
Share of spend (%)
Sector 1: 
Online Auctions, Department Stores, Fashion, Cosmetics, Variety Stores
Sector 2: 
Home, Furniture, Appliances, Electronics
Sector 3: 
Recreation, Toys, Games & Hobbies, Music, Movies, Books
Sector 4: 
Groceries, Liquor, Specialised Food
<30 30s 40s 50s 60+
23.4
%
23.4
%
16.8
%
13.4
%
23
%
NAB Online Retail Sales Index
 
3
Seasonal softness in January isevident in the decline in the index
NAB’s Online Retail Sales Index ell in January 2013– down to 202 points rom 227 points in December2012 (chart 3). This trend is consistent with observedseasonal patterns over the last ew years, with Januarytypically a weaker month, with soter spendingpatterns post Christmas.For the 12 months to January 2013, Australia’s totalonline retail spending was $13.0 billion.This level o spending remains relatively small whencompared with retail sales rom the traditional bricksand mortar sector. For the 12 months to December2012, traditional retail sales* totalled $222 billion. Asa result, online sales are equivalent to around 5.8% othe traditional sector.The composition o online and traditional salesremains markedly diferent. When ood & beveragesare excluded rom both series, the share o onlinesales increases to 9.6% (up rom 9.1% in October)(see page 4).
Growth rates remain strong afterlate  peaks
In January 2013, the growth in online retail sales was27% year-on-year. Though of a much larger base, thegrowth rates or the traditional retail sector are armore modest – with an increase o just 0.4% year-on-year in December (on a non-seasonally adjusted basis)(chart 4).In seasonally adjusted terms, the growth rate ortraditional sales was a little stronger in December2012, at +1.9% year-on-year.
25020015010050ABS retail sales (ex. takeaway food)Online Index
Chart 3:
Online index vs. retail sales
(nsa, monthly)
Jan-10Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
50403020100ABS retail sales (ex. takeaway food)Online Index
Chart 4:
Growth in online sales vs. retailsales
(%, yoy)
Jan-11Jul-11 Jul-12Jan-12 Jan-13
70605040302010InternationalDomestic
Chart 5:
Growth in online sales by retaillocation
(%, yoy)
Jan-11Jul-11 Jul-12Jan-12 Jan-13
Indepth report – January 
* Traditional retail sales dened here excludes caés, restaurants and takeaway oodto create a like-or-like comparison.
“The unseasonal growth ineCommerce in January illustratesconsumers’ increasing condence indoing their holiday shopping online.”
Tony Davis, Quantium

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