Psi Feb 2013 Final Report

february 2013
services sector nudges towards growth in february

Key findings
The latest seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group/ Commonwealth Bank of Australia Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI) rose 3.1 points in February to 48.5 (readings below 50 indicate a contraction in activity, with the distance from 50 indicating the scale of decline). This was the highest level of the Australian PSI since June 2012. It was supported by increases in the sales, new orders, and employment sub-indexes, with employment levels rising for the first time since January 2012. In three-month-moving average terms, the Australian PSI has slowly trended upwards over the past six months, during a period which saw the 125 basis point cut to the official cash rate during 2012. This has seen a gradual rise in the activity indexes of sub-sectors directly exposed to household spending including personal & recreational services and retail trade. The activity index of the property & business services sub-sector has also stabilised in recent months (albeit in contractionary territory), after declining through much of 2012.
FEB
65 60
australian psi
55
60
Increasing
48.5
50 45 40 35
55 50
Diffusion Index
AUST
45
Decreasing
JAN
30
40 35 30 25
euroZone services indeX
JAN
65 60
May 10 June 10 July 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 June 11 July 11 Aug 11 Sept 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 June 12 July 12 Aug 12 Sept 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13
48.6
55 50 45 40 35
Australian PSI
3 month moving average
EURO
sectors
On a seasonally adjusted basis, two sub-sectors expanded in February, down from four in January (i.e. the activity index of these sub-sectors was above 50 points). Businesses in the health & community services and personal & recreational services sub-sectors reported growth in activity levels for a second consecutive month. At the other end of the scale, the property & business services and transport & storage sub-sectors reported further falls in activity in February. The property & business services sub-sector has been contracting (with index readings under 50 points) since December 2011. Businesses in these sub-sectors reported that declines in mining sector sentiment and continuing weakness in manufacturing and non-residential construction were hampering activity.
Wholesale trade Retail trade Accommodation, cafes & restaurants* Transport & storage Communication services* Finance & insurance* Property & business services Health & community services
Decreasing
Increasing
DEC
30
JAN
65 60
uK services indeX
Personal & recreational services PSI
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 100
UK
51.5
55 50 45 40 35
Diffusion Index
*
Jan 13
Feb 13
Activity indexes for the finance & insurance, communication services and accommodation, caf & restaurant sub-sectors were not published this month due to the small number of survey responses from these sub-sectors.
sales and capacity

On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales levels contracted again in February. The sales component of the Australian PSI rose 4.3 points to 47.7 points. The sales sub-index was weighed down by sharp declines in sales levels in the transport & storage and retail trade sub-sectors. On the other hand, modest sales growth was recorded in the personal & recreational services sub-sector. Capacity utilisation in the services sector (which is not seasonally adjusted) increased by 1.1 points to 76.3%, which is in line with the average level recorded since the start of 2010.
65 60
Diffusion Index
85 80
Capacity Utilisation Capacity Utilisation % (Unadj.)
DEC
30
55 50 45 40 35 30 25
Sales
75 70 65 60 55
JAN
65 60
US
usa services indeX
55 50
55.2
45 40 35
Supported by:
DEC
30
On a seasonally adjusted basis, new orders fell again in February, but
60 55
Diffusion Index
employment and wages

On a seasonally adjusted basis, employment expanded in the services
70 65 60
Diffusion Index Average wages
sector in February, for the first time since January 2012. The employment sub-index rose 1.8 points in February to 51.7. This was the highest reading for the employment sub-index since August 2011. The rise in employment levels was strongest in the retail trade and health & community services sub-sectors. This was offset however by employment reductions in the personal & recreational services and wholesale trade sub-sectors. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the average wages index rose by 1.6 points to 59.8 in February to be above the average level recorded since the start of 2010. The average wages index was supported by solid wage growth in the transport & storage and health & community services sub-sectors.
the rate of decline eased markedly. The new orders sub-index rose by 5.7 points to 48.7 points. The fall in the new orders across the services sector was driven by especially weak activity in the transport & storage and retail trade sub-sectors. Falling new orders in these sub-sectors were partly offset by growth in the health & community and personal & recreational services sub-sectors. Businesses noted that falling new order levels stemmed from weakness in large parts of the manufacturing and construction sectors, as well as some moderation in mining sector activity.
Increasing
new orders
65
what is the australian psi?

The Australian Industry Group Commonwealth Bank Australian Performance of Services Index (Australian PSI) is a seasonally adjusted national composite index based on the diffusion indexes for sales, orders/new business, deliveries, inventories and employment with varying weights. An Australian PSI reading above 50 points indicates services activity is generally expanding; below 50, that it is declining. The distance from 50 is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. More information can be obtained from the Ai Group website www.aigroup.com.au
50 45
Decreasing Increasing
40 35 30 25 20
55
Employment
50 45 40 35
Decreasing
sponsor statement
Commonwealth Bank is delighted to be the sponsor of the Australian PSI and is pleased to be able to provide the expertise of our Chief Economist Michael Blythe as the key spokesperson for the Performance of Services Index. The Commonwealth Bank is one of Australia's premier service organisations and with the majority of the Australian economy being services based we believe this important piece of research will add real value to the industry. It will provide insights and information that have not previously been available. We look forward to continuing to work with the Australian Industry Group to enhance and develop the Australian PSI.
30
On a seasonally adjusted basis, stock levels (or inventories) in the
55 50
Diffusion Index
Deliveries
services sector declined for a fourth consecutive month in February, and at an accelerating rate of contraction. The stocks sub-index of the Australian PSI fell by 4.4 points in the month to 45.0 points. The fall in the index was driven by declining stock levels in the transport & storage and retail trade sub-sectors. The supplier deliveries sub-index increased by 4.1 points this month to 46.1 points, but remained below the 50 point level separating expansion from contraction. The decline in deliveries to the services sector was driven by activity in the transport & storage and personal & recreational services sub-sectors.
Stocks
45
Decreasing
40 35 30 25
Increasing
stocKs and deliveries
60
contact
input costs and selling prices

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the input prices index rose 2.8
80 75
Increasing
points to 62.8 in February, which is broadly in line with the average level recorded since the start of 2009. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling prices index decreased by 4.9 points to 44.3, remaining well below the critical 50 point level separating expansion from contraction. The average selling price index for the retail trade sector was below the critical 50 point level separating expansion from contraction for the 15th consecutive month in February, as businesses continue to lower prices to help stimulate sales volumes. The low level of the average selling prices index is consistent with recent weakness in Australian inflation more generally, with headline inflation recording just 2.2% p.a. in the December quarter of 2012 (and with even smaller price changes for many foods and other consumer goods).
70 65
Diffusion Index
Input Prices
Innes Willox Chief Executive Ai Group 03 9867 0111 Michael Workman Senior Economist Commonwealth Bank of Australia Mobile: 0414 870 394 Markit Economics www.markiteconomics.com
The Australian Industry Group, 2013 This publication is copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of private study or research permitted under applicable copyright legislation, no part may be reproduced by any process or means without the prior written permission of The Australian Industry Group. Disclaimer The Australian Industry Group provides information services to its members and others, which include economic and industry policy and forecasting services. None of the information provided here is represented or implied to be legal, accounting, financial or investment advice and does not constitute financial product advice. The Australian Industry Group does not invite and does not expect any person to act or rely on any statement, opinion, representation or interference expressed or implied in this publication. All readers must make their own enquiries and obtain their own professional advice in relation to any issue or matter referred to herein before making any financial or other decision. The Australian Industry Group accepts no responsibility for any act or omission by any person relying in whole or in part upon the contents of this publication.
AIG12697
60 55 50
Selling Prices
40 35 30
25
australian psi* february 2013

February 2013 48.5 sales 47.7 new orders 48.7 employment 51.7 supplier deliveries 46.1 inventories 45.0 input prices 62.8 selling prices 44.3 wages 59.8 capacity utilisation (%) 76.3
australian psi
January 2013 45.4 43.4 43.0 49.9 42.0 49.4 60.0 49.2 58.2 75.2
Monthly Change 3.1 4.3 5.7 1.8 4.1 -4.4 2.8 -4.9 1.6 1.1
Direction Contracting Contracting Contracting Contracting Contracting Contracting Expanding Contracting Expanding
Rate of Change Slower Slower Faster Slower Slower Slower Faster Slower Slower Slower
Trend** (Months) 12 7 7 12 7 3 119 15 42 12
Results are based on the responses of around 150 companies. Forward seasonal factors were generated by the ABS in April 2012. * Australian PSI data is seasonally adjusted for sales, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, inventories and input prices. ** Number of months moving in current direction.
If you would like to participate in this survey, please send your details to economics@aigroup.asn.au
Supported by:
Decreasing
45

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february 2013

services sector nudges towards growth in february

euroZone services indeX

3 month moving average

Personal & recreational services PSI

sales and capacity

usa services indeX

On a seasonally adjusted basis, new orders fell again in February, but

employment and wages

what is the australian psi?

On a seasonally adjusted basis, stock levels (or inventories) in the

stocKs and deliveries

input costs and selling prices

australian psi* february 2013

Trend** (Months) 12 7 7 12 7 3 119 15 42 12

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