Climate Change —The Global Effects
Introduction
by John Streicker In 2007 theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) released its FourthAssessment Report. Previous assessments (1990, 1995, 2001) had provided strongindications that by various measures the Earth's climate was becomingwarmer ,but withthe latest report the picture had become clearer: “Warming of the climate system isunequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air andocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sealevel.”The IPCC was established in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Programme andthe World Meteorological Organization (a UN agency) in recognition of the potentialimportance of climate change. The IPCC is charged with reviewing comprehensivescientific climate-change studies and providing an objective understanding of climatechange, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. Hundreds of climatologists, meteorologists, and other scientists from around the world are involved inthe preparation of IPCC reports as authors, contributors, and expert reviewers. The fourthassessment was compiled by three IPCC working groups, and an overview of their findings is provided in the sections that follow.Climate undergoes natural changes and cycles. In order to understand the Earth's overallwarming, therefore, scientists examine the balance of the energy that reaches the Earthfrom the Sun and the energy that is radiated away from the Earth. They then identify
radiative forcings
—that is, human or natural factors that drive the energy balance up or
down. The fourth assessment established that anthropogenic (human) activity isresponsible for most of the current global warming, with radiative forcing fromanthropogenic sources being over 10 times larger than all natural components combined.The primary anthropogenic source is the emission of greenhouse gasessuch as carbondioxide, which is produced mainly by the burning of fossil fuels. (Greenhouse gases aregases that allow sunlight to pass through but trap heat radiated from the Earth as it iswarmed by the sunlight.) Land-use change, such as the burning or clearing of forests, provides a lesser contribution.
Effects on the Physical World
The Fourth Assessment Report documented that 11 of the past 12 years have been thewarmest on record since 1850 (when global instrumental record keeping began). Over the past 100 years, the global annual average surface temperature has risen by 0.74 °C (1.3°F), with most of this warming coming in only the past 50 years. The world has not beenwarming uniformly as climate changes, however. In general, average land surfacetemperatures have been increasing more rapidly than ocean surface temperatures(although the oceans absorb 80% of the heat that the world is gaining). TheArctichas been the region with the most rapid rate of warming—two to three times the globalaverage. In contrast, surface temperatures of Antarcticahave not risen significantly. (For Projected Surface Temperature Changes,
see
.)
With warmer surface temperatures and warmer oceans, more water evaporates and themoisture in the atmosphere increases. Storms with heavy precipitation have occurred withmore frequency and intensity. Extreme events such as hurricanes and cyclones are notmore frequent globally, but there is evidence of an increase in the strength and duration of the storms since 1970 that is consistent with increases in ocean temperature. Increases inthe extent of spring melting and in storms with heavy precipitation have resulted in moreflooding in some areas. Warmer temperatures can also mean more rapid drying, however,and some areas have experienced more periods marked by drought.
•
The melting and retreat of Grinnell Glacier in Glacier National Park, Montana, isdocumented in …With the advent of satellite imagery in the late 1970s, it became possible to monitor snowand ice coverage on a global scale. Snow pack, sea ice, and glaciers have been melting,and the rate of melt has been increasing in recent decades. Permafrost (ground thatnormally stays frozen year-round) in the Northern Hemisphere is also beginning to melt,and the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing mass. The most visibleexpression of climate change has been the seasonal retreat of Arcticsea ice. Thesummertime sea-ice minimum in the Arctic has shown a declining trend, and in 2007 theminimum was 23% less than the record minimum that was set in 2005. (
See
The melting of land-based ice and the expansion of the oceans as they have becomewarmer account about equally for observed increases insea level. (Melting of sea icedoes not raise sea level, since floating ice already displaces its equivalent in melt water.)Sea level has risen by 17 cm (7 in) in the past 100 years. Although this is a relativelysmall amount, historical data indicate that mean sea level had been virtually unchangedfor the previous 2,000 years.
Effects on Biological Systems
As temperatures rise and precipitation and storm patterns shift, there have beenaccompanying changes in the biological world. The fourth assessment states:“Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many naturalsystems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperatureincreases.” Some land plant and animal species have shifted their ranges poleward(northward in the Northern Hemisphere and southward in the Southern Hemisphere), andsome have moved upslope to higher elevations, where it is cooler. Boreal forests, for example, have been observed encroaching northward on the Arctic tundra at a rate of 12km (7.5 mi) per year.In general, mid- to high-latitude regions have had earlier springs and a longer growingseason. Other changes that have been reported include earlier leaf production in trees,earlier egg hatching in birds, and an earlier awakening from hibernation by mammals.The timing varies for different species, however, depending on their specific behaviour and ability to adapt to change.As climate and someecosystemshave shifted, there has been some loss andfragmentation of terrestrial habitats. Climate change is thought to play a role in the population decrease and ultimately the extinction of some species by such mechanisms asconstricting habitat, affecting reproductive patterns, and providing an advantage tocompeting species. Particularly at risk are species that have a restricted range and lowadaptive capacity.
•
A polar bear leaps between ice floes in the Arctic Ocean. Arctic sea ice serves as a prime polar …Some marine and freshwater biological ecosystems have also shifted poleward,apparently because of rising water temperatures, loss of ice cover, and changes in oceancirculation and water chemistry. Examples of affected organisms include algae, plankton,and fish in high-latitude regions and in high-altitude lakes. Warming of the southern
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