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US Forecast

US Forecast

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Published by Thalia Sanders
Strayer University
Strayer University

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Categories:Types, School Work
Published by: Thalia Sanders on Mar 12, 2013
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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03/12/2013

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© 2004, The PRS Group, Inc. ISSN: 1054-6278
United States
Table of Contents
Page
Country Forecast
Map.....................................................................................................................................................................2Highlights..........................................................................................................................................................3Current Data......................................................................................................................................................5Comment & Analysis.....................................................................................................................................11Forecast ScenariosMost Likely Five-Year Regime Scenario: Republican Majority (60% Probability)........................19Second Most Likely Five-Year Regime Scenario: Divided Government (30% Probability).........23Third Most Likely Five-Year Regime Scenario: Democratic Majority (10% Probability).............25Forecast Summary..................................................................................................................................27Political FrameworkPlayers To Watch....................................................................................................................................29Political Players.......................................................................................................................................30
Investment Climate Overview...................................................................................................................................................1Policies.......................................................................................................................................................2Legal Framework......................................................................................................................................2Infrastructure............................................................................................................................................4Political Violence......................................................................................................................................4Corruption.................................................................................................................................................4Labor Conditions......................................................................................................................................4Climate for TradeTrade Barriers...........................................................................................................................................7International Agreements........................................................................................................................7BackgroundGeography.................................................................................................................................................9History.......................................................................................................................................................9Social Conditions....................................................................................................................................13Government............................................................................................................................................14Political Conditions................................................................................................................................14Foreign Relations....................................................................................................................................15
 
Page 2Map
Political Risk Services
United States Country Forecast
Reproduction without written permission of The PRS Group is strictly prohibited.
Honolulu
Hawaii 
JuneauAnchorage
Alaska 
qqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq
SeattleSpokaneBoiseSanFranciscoLos AngelesSan DiegoLasVegasSaltLakeCityDenverAlbuquerqueDallasHoustonSanAntonioWichitaFargo
q
PhoenixSt. LouisMemphisSt. PetersburgMilwaukeeDesMoinesBostonNiagaraFallsNew YorkMiamiTampaJacksonvilleAtlantaIndianapolisToledoChicagoDetriotBaton RougeNewOrleansMobileShreveportPhiladelphiaNorfolkCharleston
Washington, D.C.
      ➘      ➘
      ➘
Canada
UnitedStates
Mexico
CubaJamaicaHaitiDom.Rep.
PuertoRico(U.S.)Bahamas
Gulf of Mexico N o r t h A t l a n t i cO c e a n
 N o r t h P a c i f i cO c e a n
Hawaiian Islands (U.S.)Alaska (U.S.)
REV2003
Great  Lakes
 
 
Political Risk Services
 
1-Dec-2004
Reproduction without written permission of The PRS Group is strictly prohibited.
 Highlights 1-Dec-2004 Page 3
United States
Country Forecast
 
Highlights
 
MOST LIKELY REGIMES AND THEIR PROBABILITIES18-Month:
Republican Majority 80% (50%)
Five-Year:
Republican Majority 60% (45%)
FORECASTS OF RISK TO INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS
 
TurmoilFinancialTransferDirectInvestmentExportMarket18-Month:
Low B+ A+ (A) A
Five-Year:
Low B+ A A-
( ) Indicates change in rating. * Indicates forecast of a new regime.
KEY ECONOMIC FORECASTSYearsReal GDPGrowth % Inflation %CurrentAccount ($bn)
1999-2003(AVG) 2.7 2.4 -420.122004(F) 4.0 2.8 -650.002005-2009(F) 3.0 2.7 -570.00
More of the Same
Key Points To Watch…
!
President Bush won re-election in early November in a contest that was notnearly as close as anticipated, while the governing Republican Party expandedits majorities in both houses of the Congress…
!
Consequently, the president should be able to win approval of his priorityinitiatives, including reforms of the Social Security and tax systems, and theextension of tax cuts that are due to expire before the close of the decade. Thatsaid, Bush may still face some tough battles, particularly owing to concernsamong members of his conservative wing over the large fiscal deficits run upby the administration…
!
The most lasting legacy of Bush’s second term is likely to be the establishmentof a conservative majority on the Supreme Court. He is expected to appoint atleast three new justices to the Court over the next four years, all of whom willvery probably adhere to a narrow interpretation of federal power, particularlyas concerns the government’s economic regulatory functions…

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