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American Academy of Political and Social Science
The Impact of Polls on Public OpinionAuthor(s): Kurt Lang and Gladys Engel LangSource:
Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science,
Vol. 472, Polling andthe Democratic Consensus (Mar., 1984), pp. 129-142Published by: Sage Publications, Inc. in association with the American Academy of Politicaland Social ScienceStable URL:
http://www.jstor.org/stable/1043889
Accessed: 23/01/2009 15:18
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ANNALS,AAPSS,472,March1984
TheImpactof Polls onPublicOpinion
ByKURT LANGand GLADYSENGELLANGABSTRACT: hereare threewaysin whichpollscaninfluencethepublicopinionthey purportmerelytomeasure.Justbeinginterviewedtends toarouse interest andtoencouragesomerespondentsto informthemselvesand toclarifytheirviewsonthesubject.Itmayeven increase electoralparticipation.Second,there islittle evidencethatknowledgeof wherethemajoritystandshasanythinglikethemuchfearedbandwagoneffect.Although manypeopleare awareofpollfindings,theyreacttotheseinmorediverseways,includingtacticalvoting,than thebandwagonhypothe-sisimplies.These reactionsmayinturnproduceathird effect.Feelingthatthere is littlesupportfor one'sviewpointcandiscourageand evenintimi-date the advocatesofaminorityviewpoint, keepingthat issue frombeingraised.Herepollscan eitheractasacorrectiveorputadamperondiscussion,makingtheminorityviewappearevenlesspopularthanitactuallyis.
KurtLangandGladysEngelLangareprofessorsofsociologyat theStateUniversityofNew York atStonyBrook. KurtLangwaspublicopinionandmediaanalystfortheU.S.Office of MilitaryGovernmentforGermanyafterWorldWar IIand thefirstresearchsociologistforthe CanadianBroadcasting Corporation.GladysEngelLanghasheldresearchpositionsingovernmentandquasi-governmental agencies,includingtheCenterforUrbanEducation.TheLangshave authoredandcoauthoredbooksandarticles; theirlatest is
The Battle orPublicOpinion.129
 
THEANNALS OF THEAMERICANACADEMY
Opublicopinionpolls, bymeas-uringopinion,affect theopiniontheymeasure'?Thequestionofwhether,andhowmuch,aninstrument influen-ceswhat itisdesignedtomeasureisanalyticallydistinct fromthequestionofitsaccuracy: anyreading,accurateornot,of thepublicmindwillenter intotheprocessthroughwhichpeopleformopinionsaboutpublicmatters.Intriguingas itmaybe tothetheorist,thequestionofwhetherpollingaffectspublicopinionis ofmore thanacademicinterest. Foronething,theuseofpollsandpollingconsultantstomanipulatepublicopinionhasbecomestandardpracticeineverykindofcampaign.Occasionallyit isthecandidates them-selveswhoinject pollfindingsinto thepoliticaldebate,as intheBritishelectionofJune1983,when thestandingof theSocialDemocraticParty/Liberalalli-anceversusLabourbecameamatterforpublicdispute.Thoseshowntrailingoftenworryoutloudabouttheeffectontheirpotentialsupporters:will thisengenderdefeatistattitudesand turnthethreateneddefeat intoreality?Techno-logicaldevelopmentsnowmake itpos-sible toassessinstantaneouslythepublicresponsetojustaboutanypoliticaldevelopment,andtodisseminatethisinformationquicklyviathemassmedia.Withpollsproliferatingandassuminganincreasinglyprominentplaceinthenews,withthereleaseofmajor pollresultsbecoming bignewsevents,theserapidlycollectedandanalyzedstatisticsarereplacingeditorialsasthevoice ofpublicopinion.Noonecanyetsayforcertainjusthowthisstepped-upfeedbackonwherethepublicstandsoneveryissueinfluen-ceshowthepublicstands,butwhatevertheeffectson what iscalledpublicopin-ion,thesewillsurelybemagnifiedbythegrowingintensityofpollinginnearlyallthe Western democracies.Infact thepresumedeffectshavethemselvesbe-comeissues inpolitical campaigns.Inthisarticlewe willconsider,inturn,some oftheevidence onthreespe-cificmatters:(1)thedirecteffect ofpol-lingonpolledopinion,thatis,theeffectofbeinginterviewedontheopinionsofthosechosen torepresenttheopinionsof themany;(2)the directeffectofpub-lishedpoll findingson themasspublic;and(3)the indirectandcumulativeeffects ofpollfindingsinconveyingaclimate ofopinion.
EFFECT OF POLLS ONRESPONDENTS'OPINIONS
Topoll everymember ofthe masspublicisprohibitively expensive.Thoseselectedthroughthesamplingprocessthus functionassurrogatesforthosenotpolled,and theirpolledopinionpre-sumablyreflects the viewsof theseoth-ers. Abasicquestion,therefore,iswhether the interviewerwho contactsastrangerelicits a truestatement ofthelatter'sopinionsand beliefs orwhetherpollingopinioninany wayaffectstheopinionexpressed.Thereare at least twosourcesofpos-sibledistortion,eachaltogetherdistinctfromtheother. Onerelates tothevaria-bilityin theresponseobtainedbyusingdifferentinterviewers-forexample,whether ablackisinterviewedbyanotherblack orbyawhite-or differentcontactsituations-forexample,face-to-faceversustelephoneinterviews.Pollstershavelongbeenaware of thepotentialfordistortion inherent in thecharacteristics130
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