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OctOber 2008
 Ater several decades o disappointing growth,nuclear energy seems poised or a comeback.alk o a “nuclear renaissance” includes perhaps adoubling or tripling o nuclear capacity by 2050,spreading nuclear power to new markets in theMiddle East and Southeast Asia, and develop-ing new kinds o reactors and uel-reprocessingtechniques. During the George W. Bush admin-istration, the United States has promoted nuclearenergy both at home and abroad. Programs likethe 2006 Global Nuclear Energy Partnershipand President Bush’s 2007 joint declaration withthen–Russian president Vladimir Putin to acili-tate and support nuclear energy in developingcountries have helped to promote the notion o amajor worldwide nuclear revival.But the reality o nuclear energy’s uture is morecomplicated. Projections or growth assume thatgovernment support will compensate or nuclearpower’s market liabilities and that perennial issuessuch as waste, saety, and prolieration will not beserious hurdles. However, without major changesin government policies and aggressive nancialsupport, nuclear power is actually likely to accountor a
declining 
percentage o global electricity gen-eration. For example, the International Energy  Agency’s
World Energy Outlook 2007 
projects that without policy changes, nuclear power’s share o  worldwide electricity generation will drop rom 15percent in 2007 to 9 percent in 2030.Given the seriousness o these uncertainties, asound post-Bush oreign—and domestic—policy 
N rnissn:Is I coing? So I?
SharON SquaSSONI
Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment or International Peace
ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
C
 ARNEGIE
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Expectations or nuclear energy have grown dramatically. More than thirty nations now have plans to build nuclear powerplants or the frst time.
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A nuclear renaissance, however, is not a oregone conclusion. A major expansion would require signifcant policy and fnancialsupport rom governments.
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Key questions need solid answers beorehand: Can nuclear power help reduce dependence on oreign oil or contribute sig-nifcantly to needed reductions in carbon emissions? Is nuclear power economically competitive? Can saety be assured and isan acceptable solution or nuclear waste at hand? Can nuclear power be expanded in such a way as to adequately control theadded risks o prolieration?
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To minimize some o the risks o nuclear expansion—whether related to economics, saety, security, or prolieration—theUnited States should consider several actions: help strengthen the rules o nuclear commerce and transparency, deemphasizethe element o national prestige with respect to nuclear energy, help other countries undertake clear-eyed assessments o allavailable options or generating electricity, and limit the acquisition o sensitive nuclear technologies like uranium enrichmentand spent-uel reprocessing.
Summar
 
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